coldwarrior on July 30, 2008 at 5:05 PM

You are right of course. Since antiquity Central Asia has benefited from Trade. Major empires in this region had their source of income either from trade or from plunder of India and Iran.

While Central Asia has prospect of wealth from discovery of resource esp. petroleum, India can take no part of it, as it doesn’t have direct access and doesn’t trust Pakistan on it.

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 6:52 PM

Now I am hardy an expert on Christianity, but I think one of the major reason that the things turned that way is because initially Christianity independently of state

Coldwarrior & Gaurav all make great points, and I’ll throw one more out there.

The dynamic now, across the CIS states, and and into Pakistan & Afghanistan, are burgeoning populations; 90% or more who are illiterate, primarily agrarian, and inclucated into Islam, and not “passive” Islam, but Salafiyyah Jihadi Islam: Wahhabiyyah, Salafiyyah, Deobandi…

And Coldwarrior and Gaurav, started to touch on it, but I’ll flesh it out:

Islam, in it’s history (except for a brief period in Al Andalus, and maybe, maybe for a short period in the Mughhal Empire in India, has never had the the following (sustained):
a Reformation, a Scientific Englightenment, a Rennaisance, an Industrial Revolution, a Puritan Movement(Social), a Humanist Movement, a Democratic Movement…etc..

Western Civilization, Christianity, had all those and more. All those “movements”, helped, incrementally, to decouple Society and Civilization away from RELIGION, which allowed the West to leap forward and progress; and acheive all the things that it has acheived, in the past 500 years.

Conversely, while the West was ungoing those same massive Societal changes, Islam, was retrenching, and retreating, and becoming isolationist, and moving backwards.

To the extent, that now, the ONLY discussion what is allowed in Islamic societies, is not how to reform Islam in order to decouple the religion and society, and allow the great leap forward that is deperately needed; no the ONLY discussion allowed is how to in fact, to make Islam MORE “perfect”, more puritanical, more widespread, bring more people into the fold via conversion-by-force, how to suppress Western inflences such as “science”, etc.

With over a Billion Adherents, this is certainly NOT a good thing…

I hope there is another opportunity soon to have another discussion about that region. It’s very complicated, this I did come to understand. It’s not just a case of fighting terrorists that is going to bring about success in Afghanistan.

Take a bit of time and head over to Google Earth and take a look at Central Asia, zoom in on the towns, and the general lack of infrastructure, save for a few pretty much crumbling Soviet Socialist Realist portions of some of the major cities. Pretty bleak. But, just a few centuries ago this was the center of the world for a vast number of people, the trade of goods from all over the world was abundant. Subsistance agriculture was pretty much the mainstay, other than trade. Central Asia was a natural entrepot for half the Asian landmass. Control of this trade made empires and kingdoms, and there were libraries and schools that rivaled those in Europe.

Thanks to the Russians, and moreso the Soviets, this region was turned into a backwater, forgotten by most of the rest of the world and depleted by the Soviets.

Kazakhstan,. for example has large deposits of oil, natural gas, manganese, copper, coal and iron, the sort of stuff that is demanded by developed and developing economies. Facilitating the extration and export of these essentials can provide large sums to the Kazakhs, and lend toward the modernization of the overall region. Kyrgizia has little to offer the industrial nations, a few known gold deposits, but not a lot of other exportable goods…that we know of yet. Tadjikistan is similar. Uzbekistan has oil, coal, gas, copper. All of these countries are presently dependent on Soviet-built road and rail systems that all lead to Russia, not to the rest of Asia. This is why Afghanistan became a prime candidate for routing a gas pipeline into Pakistan or India, and according to a good number on the whacko Left, the sole reason for our invading Afghanistan. The nations of Central Asia need, desperately need, to become physically connected to the outside world by routes other than through Russia. They require investment and exploration, and development and economic assistance and techical expertise to do so. This is where the West, and developed and developing South Asia can play a major role…all players obtaining economic payoffs over the long haul.

How does Afghanistan fit in? Geography. The corridor from the Kara Kum flatlands and desert to the Indian Ocean runs right through Afghanistan. High mountain ranges prevent such easy access all along the rest of south Central Asia from the Caucausus to the Dzungarian gateway into China. Pipelines, highways, and rail lines through Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean can make the minerals of Central Asia accessible to overseas markets, and bring in the necessities of modernization. Afghanistan collects fees for transit, adds to her coffers, gets off the opium market, gains real income and development, and along the way, the people in Afghanistan take control of their own nation…being able to afford to do so, and being able to afford to feed their own as well.

China is and has been looking at Kazakhstan for quite a while. China has been working on building infrastruure to its westernmost borders. China is or soon will be in a best postition to oversee the extraction and transport of the minerals of Central Asia. China needs this. If successful, China will grow and develop at a rate thought impossible just a decade ago.

Now…do we want China to control this flow? Does Europe want China to control this flow? Does India or Pakistan?

Unless we, and India, and Pakistan, and Europe, get off our collective backsides and make a major push into Central Asia, and soon, opportunity will be lost…to the Chinese, once and for all.

The Russian fear is that we do so…removing the focus of Central Asia from a Moscow orientation, a legacy of the past 80 years, to an Indian Ocean focus…something the Russians have wanted going back to the 18th Century and were denied.

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 1:50 PM

Actually it goes even before Raj/Persian to the days when Afghanistan formed a shifting boundary between Pre-Islamic Iranian civilization (Sassanid, Achaemid ) and Indian civilization(Mauryas,Guptas). It is hard to believe now but before the advent of Islam the tribals were overwhelmingly Buddhist plus Zorasterians.

Texas Gal on July 30, 2008 at 3:55 PM

Yes I meant unacceptable, for the simple reason that Pakistan hates India. Reg Afghanistan I personally am in favour of greater Indian involvement, not least for non trivial cultural leverage that India has over Afghanistan.
Unfortunately opinion in India is divided over this owing to difference whether any such move would be welcome to tribes.

Gaurav on July 30, 2008 at 12:59 PM

I think as far as Afghanistan is concerned a loose federation of tribes should be constituted the governance should be left to tribes in some fashion of federalism as long as 1) the resulting arrangement remains peaceful and friendly. and 2) Doesn’t allow radicals and sharia based rule.

Thanks for your insight. I had been forming a similar conclusion in my head. And since it is our experience in Iraq that was the catalyst for my thinking, hopefully, similar thinking is going on in Washington. Keeping Afghanistan peaceful and free of radicals while infrastructure and civilization is developed is, in my opinion, the best we can do not only for Afghanis but for ourselves. It’s going to be a long, long process and I’m mighty afraid the American public is not up for it unless we can get to a point where Afghanistan is out of the news like Iraq is now, but Afghanistan is going to have to be an international philanthropic project and I don’t see that many nations onboard with that notion.

Now Afghanistan is a country with meager resources but good location for trade so it can be used for trade between India and Central Asia. Though this is likely to be acceptable to Pakistan.

Did you mean unacceptable to Pakistan? Why so? Because they would be a competitor? I’ve heard it said by some that we should be buying up the opium crop in Afghanistan for legal use but that Turkey would not cooperate since it would cut into their market. And I do know that trying to move the farmers to another form of commercial product would require better infrastructure to get it to market. Seems like the best plan would be to find another legal use for the poppy?

coldwarrior on July 30, 2008 at 1:34 PM

Texas Gal, getting the Saudis to “recognize” anything is next to impossible.

Well, “recognize” was probably a poor word choice by me. Maybe “understand” would have been a better word. I agree with the need for energy independence is a national security issue, and for me more than an environmental issue. Unfortunately, I don’t think the case has been made or will be made to the majority of the American public that this is about national security not $4 a gal. gasoline. I fear that when the price comes down, so will the motivation.

If it was me, I’d be sure that the Saudis came around to the understanding that it is evitable that American will move away from importing their oil by using our own and developing technologies that serve as alternatives to fossil fuels and these technologies will eventually find their way into global markets. I would help them understand that as that happens, our national interests in keeping our military in the Straits for the sake of exporting their oil will be come less important to the American voter who has a tendency for isolationism and is footing the bill for the House of Saud and in that respect the Americans are paying at both ends of that pump. I don’t think Americans understand that right now, but I’ve got a feeling it will come to light. When that happens the Saudis are going to need another protector and as long as we no longer need their oil I don’t think we are going to care who that is. But I would think that Russia and China cozying up with Iran and the real possibility of a nuclear Iran who very much wants to control the Straits ought to create some level of discomfort. I’m sure the Saudis could not care less about how much we pay for gasoline but they ought to be wise enough to understand that one day their oil could sit under their sand with Iran calling the shots.

Turning against Arab, or Tadjikh or Turkomen interlopers was one thing, getting them to turn on neighbors, ethnic brothers across the border, well, that is something quite different.

A couple of weeks ago I watched the video Charlie Wilson’s War. Of course, it was a movie but I’m sure the basic history was that was depicted was accurate. In that movie, when the Russians invaded Afghanistan there were thousands of Afghani refugees that flooded into Pakistan along the NWFT border. Without going into the entire movie, I wonder if now almost 2 decades later there is some sense of ownership of Afghanistan by Pakistan (who evidently facilitated the assistance to defeat the Russians), especially those in the NWFT (where perhaps there are still some of those refugees), the Taliban that resulted and this is the root for the ongoing attempt by the Taliban to take back Afghanistan?

Personally, I see what is going on in Afghanistan as 2 different wars, one between USA/NATO and the Taliban who want Afghanistan back and the other between USA/NATO and AQ who just want to kill as many westerners as possible for the sake of jihad and draining resources. It’s the first one that I worry about not being able to win. And if we can’t find a way to win it, then Afghanistan will never develop into a civilization much less a nation.

Perhaps engaging in a Central Asia politik (something the Russians are scared to death of) can the sense of “Afghan” identity be harnessed.

Can you talk more about that, coldwarrior?

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 1:50 PM

However, I explain Afghanistan this way to people: most countries have started out as a central “core”, and thru war, marriage, territorial expansion, have expanded out in layers around that “core”.

With Afghanistan: Persia, the British Raj/India/Pakistan, the Russian Empire/Soviet Union/CIS and China, they all Expanded as far as they could, and then the Blank Spot on the map, full of Crazies that they couldn’t control any how, that became “Afghanistan”!

Excellent explanation! I’m very much a visual learner, and that drew a wonderful picture for me. But is sure doesn’t give me much hope for a national identity!

I just want to add that in the time I’ve spent here at HA, this is the most informative discussion on this topic I’ve ever had the pleasure of reading. Thanks to you all!

I haven’t had a consequential “discussion” on HA before with anyone.

I normally just drop in 2 – 3 times per day, to insult Obama, then leave.

In fact, my insults and my Facts about him, have offended some of the high-minded types; willful ignorance I like to call it…

Hasn’t been all that long since the West made the first steps into the area (not counting that Macedonian Boy Wonder, Alexander, of course) and not a lot has changed once you cross the Khyber.

BTW, Dale in Atlanta…nice to have you hanging out here. Am learning a good bit from you and a couple others. Makes for a good blog site.

There was a brief period of “Afghan” history; actually with Alexander the Great and all the Greek and Macedonian settlers that went out there.

And again, in the 17th Century, “Afghanistan” did control an Islamic kingdom that included parts of Persia and modern Pakistan.

However, I explain Afghanistan this way to people: most countries have started out as a central “core”, and thru war, marriage, territorial expansion, have expanded out in layers around that “core”.

With Afghanistan: Persia, the British Raj/India/Pakistan, the Russian Empire/Soviet Union/CIS and China, they all Expanded as far as they could, and then the Blank Spot on the map, full of Crazies that they couldn’t control any how, that became “Afghanistan”!

Religion and family ties, both of which run deeper than one can imagine in the West, and enables the Saudis to have no intention of doing anything they themselves do not want to do. For the present, they will do nothing of any sort that enables cracks in the veneer of the House of Saud.

They have known of the “Persian” threat for decades, and even during the relatively peaceful time of the Shah, the Saudi’s made sure they kept an eye on Iran. They spent billions to build a National Guard and Air Force armed with the latest the US and Europe could offer not so much to protect Saudi Arabia, but to make sure the House of Saud was protected.

Only after we gain energy independence can we actually pressure the Saudis. So long as they know they have us and Europe by the short hairs, they will do whatever they wish. The most recent ban on cat and dog sales in the Kingdom being a ludicrous but at the same time a serious example of the depths the Sauds will go to maintain their total control over their subjects.

I am sure the Saudis are talking under the table to Iran…making sure the Persian “menace” is focused on the West and, of course, Israel. One would have expected a united Sunni front in the Gulf against Shi’ite Iran, but seems that they are deeply engaged in carpet trading of a sort to make sure the mullahs in Teheran don’t get too out of hand and endanger their game…the Sauds, the Emirates and and the sheikdoms as well. Hence the reluctance of the Saudis and the sheiks in the region to voice support for the toppling of Saddam…he was of the same cloth as they in many many respects.

Energy independence here at home offers much more than cheap fuel and alternative green energy sources…it will allow us to dictate terms to the Saudis and others in the region who grow quite rich on the backs of the average American or European worker, and who frankly couldn’t care less about how much Joe or Mary, Hans or Heidi has to fork over at the gas pump each week, so long as they fork it over.

Not a lot of choices out there, but driving home to the middle class in the region that they are getting screwed from the top by the elites and face getting beheaded by the masses below them should the Caliphate come to fruition seems our best avenue.

As for the Pashtuns in the MW Tribal areas…their loyalties run to individual families for the most part…they have a deep sense of honor. How to capture that honor code and use it is a route worth exploring.

Had a senior level Pakistani official as a contact (and a friend) with whom I was able to use his personal sense of honor to do a few things that he’d previously would not have done. [He was Pathan, of a warrior class hundreds of years old, and he was educated and quite literate, thus more easily engaged, and very proud of his Pathan credentials. Of all things, a shared knowledge and appreciation of Kipling provided the entree.]

But for the most part, the Pashtuns, the tribes along the frontier are not so literate nor educated. Getting involved with them on a level footing to begin with is a tough task. Convincing them that their honor dictates tossing out the foreign interlopers has been successful in only a few cases thus far. Turning against Arab, or Tadjikh or Turkomen interlopers was one thing, getting them to turn on neighbors, ethnic brothers across the border, well, that is something quite different.

As for an Afghan national identity…similar problems as found in Pakistan. Afghanistan as we know it today is not nor has it ever been Afghan…the same as Pakistan being somewhat artificial. Afghanistan was “created” because it was all that was left in the region that was not India nor Persia a century or so ago. The Afghans look toward Central Asia more than they look to the Indian Ocean. It is that hundreds of years old Afghan focus that we seem to not want to recognize. For the Afghans, Bukhara and Samarkand hold more meaning than Paris, or Washington, let alone Islamabad or New Delhi. Perhaps engaging in a Central Asia politik (something the Russians are scared to death of) can the sense of “Afghan” identity be harnessed.

In the case of Pakistan, Afghanistan or the rest of the region, I still hold to the notion that developing a vibrant middle class, complete with job with a demanding boss, a mortgage, a car payment, credit card debt and a spouse and a few teens who want more and more…giving them the American Dream…is a decent way to topple the power of the ruling elites and also give them something to protect from the unwashed radicalized masses. Each having a vested interest in the stability and growth of their nation, they would be more prone to make sure that the radicals were eliminated and the ruling elites brought to task as well.

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 12:33 PM

I agree. One thing I will like to emphasize is that when I say cause dissension, I don’t mean permanent state of warfare between different ethnicities. While at first glance this idea may seem attractive (better let them kill themselves then us), the problem with fostering too much violence even through inaction is that it creates too much disruptions and chaos with consequences which are always unpredictable and mostly undesirable. Instead what should be attempted is to foster (through trade and diplomacy) liberal and tolerant polity and society which is centered around on ethnic identity.

Texas Gal on July 30, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Well, this is a difficult question, but let me give it my best shot. I think as far as Afghanistan is concerned a loose federation of tribes should be constituted the governance should be left to tribes in some fashion of federalism as long as 1) the resulting arrangement remains peaceful and friendly. and 2) Doesn’t allow radicals and sharia based rule.

Reg. NWFP America should directly deal with tribes and should convince them to disassociate from Taliban in exchange of greater constitutional and military autonomy.

Again easier said than done.

Now Afghanistan is a country with meager resources but good location for trade so it can be used for trade between India and Central Asia. Though this is likely to be acceptable to Pakistan.

Iranian vs. Arab

Quite frankly, I think this is a strategy we’ve tried to evoke and might be having some success in getting the Saudis to recognize that the Persians with nuclear weapons are not in their best interest, that problem is not just limited to the USA and Western civilization.

Very informative and insightful discussion which also helps to explain why Afghanistan is going to be a long, long-term challenge for us and we, the US and Western civilization in general, need to make a long term commitment to the development of that country.

I wonder if any of you would offer your thoughts on the relationship between the Taliban, the Pustuns on the Afghan side of the border along the NW Territory and the difficulty in creating an Afghanistan national identity.

Gaurav on July 30, 2008 at 12:26 PM

Yes, I think it is the only way; I agree, to fan the flames of those natural divides, as well as a dual approach as I mentioned above with targetting the high-level supporters.

Either that, or fit your women folk for Burqas, and submit!

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 12:21 PM

I confess while I wish Americans all the luck, I am pessimistic about the endeavour to get Islam rid of its crazies. The most likely path (and not very likely at that) for containing Ummah is to cause dissension on ethnic or sectarian lines(Arab vs Turk, Iranian vs. Arab, Sunni vs. Shiites)and then try to contain it. Easier said than done !

Yes, I’ve seen three different levels in my experiences:

a) the indoloent Rich Financiers: the Saudi Sheikhs, and others; they can afford to be Salafiyyah, because they’re living off Petro-dollars; live fantasy lives of Palaces and yatchs and private planes, and wives and harems, they have everything they want, are bored, believe in spreading Islam for idealogical reasons, and have the money to burn to do so; these guys never get their hands dirty; they supply the money/cash, and in secret, urge people on; but that’s it…; Bin Laden actually belongs to this group, technically; but he is a true anonmoly in how he has gotten hands-on involved..

There is a small, small class of high-level upperclass radical Clerics/Imams, who can belong to this group, someone like Qaradawi for example.

In this class also, are many ME/Arab/Muslim “Politicians”; who because of birth, are rich, and usually have Theological family credentials, usually thru inherited family Sunni Sufi lineages.

b) the mid-level/middleclass “Mangers”: the most dangerous group, actually; really truly BELIEVE; the Zawahiris the Atta’s, etc.; these people are firmly Middle Eastern/Arab/Paksitan Middle Class: they are trained Doctors and Chemists and Engineers and IT people and Clerics & Imams; they manage the movement; do the hands on, the training, the ideological motivation, and like the Atta’s, for the high-level/PR operations, they may actually be the “trigger-pullers”. Strangly enough; most successful Suicide Bombers actually come from the bottom rung of this class as well!

The Clerics/Imams at this level, are the “Blind Sheikh” types. This is the class that Zawahiri belonged too; most of the Muslim Brotherhood members belong to this class, as well as Islamic Jihad, etc.

c) the great unwashed, uneducated, illiterate masses of Footsoldiers: the Madrassa masses; inculcated from walking age into Islam, and nothing else, some of these can be Suicide Bombers as well; but not the most spectacular, high-profile/best planned attacks; the Suicide bombers from this class are the ones who are fooled/tricked/coerced into it, and the ones who are unwitting or don’t even know they just “volunteered” to blow themselves up!; these are the masses of footsoldiers in Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Pakistan, who’s main mission is to confront the enemy, and get killed, hoping for a Propaganda or accidental “victory”; such as killing an American Serviceman or downing a Heliopter with an RPG, IF they get “lucky”.

We’ve focused on killing the last group a lot in Iraq & Afghanistan, because that shows immediate results, and they are on the frontlines in confronting the US Military; we’ve targeted via Rendition, UAV, SpecOps, the 2nd group, to some success, since 9/11.

However, it is the first group, that aside from Bin Laden, that for political expediency, we’ve ignored completely. It is these, frankly, we need to identify, target, and assassinate; but I’ve not been successful in getting that message across!

Dale in Atlanta on July 30, 2008 at 11:44 AM

What you are saying can be summarized as gullible poor made to fight the holy war. While it is correct, I will say it is not the whole issue. Human societies to various extent are controlled by identity and passion it arouse. which is why even the educated (even those with liberal education)can be provoked. When the society is in throes of passion, something extraordinary (in both sense positive and negative)happens.

Case in point: Nazism.

Coldwarrior: yes, its really almost impossible, to convey to Americans who haven’t lived in some of these places (I’ve lived in Nigeria for 6 years, Egypt for 5 years, Spain for 3 years, Japan for 2 years, Bahrain for 6months, Iraq/Turkey for 2months); and visited for work/military/business/pleasure another dozen countries in the region; studied and learned Arabic, for years; and have focused on Radical Islam for 31 years)); it’s difficult to get across to average Americans, the vast gulf that separates the miniscule educated/professional/middle classes in countries such as Pakistan, or Egypt, or Afghanistan, and the rest of the country; the majority of whom are illiterate, uneducated, poor, and brainwashed into Islam from the moment they are walking a talking….

That mob of the unwashed mass, is what those Pakistani Military Officers you have known, has to try and mold/force/lead into the fight; an almost impossible task, to get past a lifetime of Family, Clan, Tribe & Religious indoctrination!

Luckily, it took out the bad guys you were chasing!

coldwarrior on July 30, 2008 at 11:23 AM

Well to begin with imagine if all your senators, congressmen, governors, judges everyone in body polity is Obama, Pelosi or Reid.

Sorry for scaring you :-)