Bounce gone: Obama 47, McCain 46 in new Rasmussen poll

posted at 11:45 am on July 29, 2008 by Allahpundit

Within the margin of error, just three days after Obama led by six. We’ll see if Gallup corroborates it later, but in a sense they already have: Rasmussen samples likely voters, not registereds, and it’s among likelies that Maverick already enjoys a four-point lead according to yesterday’s snapshot. The data on Obama’s trip doesn’t bode especially well either. 65 percent either had no opinion or a negative opinion, while independents viewed the trip positively by a margin of just three points. The poll’s margin of error? Three points. “The odds of us winning are very good,” saith The One at a fundraiser last night. Are they?

Do note:

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans…

I don’t know how to explain Republican support for a guy who allegedly almost left the party a few years ago being stronger than Democratic support for Obama. Hard feelings on the left among Hillary supporters? The persistent appeal of Maverick’s centrist maverick-y brand to moderate Democrats? Or just an artifact of the national trend in party identification, with erstwhile independents who now call themselves Dems unwilling to take a chance on a true blue liberal? As for the gender breakdown, there’s your best argument for McCain picking Palin (and Obama picking someone with military cred). A McCain/Pawlenty versus Obama/Kaine contest doesn’t seem to move the needle in either direction.

Ace wrote a smart post yesterday about why, between the upward pressure of Obamamania (assuming it still exists) and the downward pressure of the Bradley effect, it’s especially foolish this year to care much about early polls. Too many X factors. But here’s another X factor worth considering. I’ve seen several people in the past month compare this campaign to 1980, where Reagan and Carter were neck and neck until the debates. That’s where Reagan proved he knew his stuff, which calmed voters nervous about him being not ready for primetime and vaulted him to a lead from which he never looked back. Supposedly the “Reagan effect” is going to propel Obama to the same sort of victory, but is he really in the same position? Between the massive media coverage (of his trip and otherwise) and the fact that he had 22 debates against a political rock star during an epic primary, how unknown a quantity is he at this point?


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McCain is supported by 86% of Republican

But McShamnesty!

carbon_footprint on July 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM

Supposedly the “Reagan effect” is going to propel Obama to the same sort of victory, but is he really in the same position?

Reagan knew his stuff because he was a two-term governor of California and had spent his life (much longer than Obama’s) studying the communist threat and other such things. Obama was a community organizer who gave a speech in 2002.

TheNolan on July 29, 2008 at 11:52 AM

Larry Fishburne needs to get on stage at the Dem convention along with Barry Obama to declare in that voice of awe:

“He is the one…”

Vatican Watcher on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

The higher ratings for McCain are likely due to the unceasing efforts of McCain haters on the right to annoy and irritate anyone who doesn’t share their point of view, that real conservatives should want Obama in the White House.

NoDonkey on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

I don’t know how to explain Republican support for a guy who allegedly almost left the party a few years ago being stronger than Democratic support for Obama.

Part of it has to be BO’s hard swing to the center after defeating Hillary.

jgapinoy on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

I suspect the debates will only help McCain, fortunately.

HawaiiLwyr on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

Also I think Republicans are far more afraid of an Obama Whitehouse than a McCain one. The enemy of our enemy is our friend.

HawaiiLwyr on July 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM

But McShamnesty!

carbon_footprint on July 29, 2008 at 11:49 AM

But, again, it’s McCain with the less-horrible plan.

marklmail on July 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM

I suspect the debates will only help McCain, fortunately.

HawaiiLwyr on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

I’m not so confident but I hope you are right.

terryannonline on July 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

The only way Obama can win in the Fall is if conservatives lose faith & stay home on election night.

argos on July 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

As for the gender breakdown, there’s your best argument for McCain picking Palin

Palin just had a baby and that baby has down syndrome. The MSM libs will play hardcore gender, mother, and abortion politics against her. By the end of their narrative manipulation, a lot of those women will end up hating Palin for not aborting considering like 90% of down syndrome children who are diagnosed early are aborted.

ninjapirate on July 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

I suspect the debates will only help McCain, fortunately.

HawaiiLwyr on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

Agreed. I think he will sweep the floor with O.

But, again, it’s McCain with the less-horrible plan.

marklmail on July 29, 2008 at 11:59 AM

I agree. I was sarcing. Will use the tag next time.

carbon_footprint on July 29, 2008 at 12:05 PM

… not that I don’t think Palin is a good choice. I just hope the campaign is prepared if they do pick her. There are rewards to be had if played right.

ninjapirate on July 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

As Ann Coulter said – McCain should disappear for a while, let the MSM run all over Obamania. Leave it to Conservatives campaigning (stop distancing from) & then return to debates.

Let Obama destroy himself.

Anita on July 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM

The only way Obama can win in the Fall is if conservatives lose faith & stay home on election night.

argos on July 29, 2008 at 12:04 PM

I’m sure many will regard that statement as wishful thinking, but I think it’s correct. If conservatives give full-throated support to McCain, I don’t think Obambi can beat him.

Repeat: November 5th, crying, dazed and confused looks on MSM leftist faces, accusations of rampant American racism in the Post and Times, burning cars in the ghetto. Can’t wait.

Jaibones on July 29, 2008 at 12:09 PM

The higher ratings for McCain are likely due to the unceasing efforts of McCain haters on the right to annoy and irritate anyone who doesn’t share their point of view, that real conservatives should want Obama in the White House.

NoDonkey on July 29, 2008 at 11:57 AM

Facts are annoying and irritating, it’s a well documented fact.

Aristotle on July 29, 2008 at 12:10 PM

There are 3 types of Obama supporters, those with guilt, gullibility, or those that Hate McCain. Get over it already!
Vote McCain ’08!

kirkill on July 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

92% to 5% among African-Americans…

Racist much?

tommylotto on July 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

Oh, the bounce is out of his bungie…

TexasJew on July 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

“November 5th, crying, dazed and confused looks on MSM leftist faces, accusations of rampant American racism in the Post and Times, burning cars in the ghetto. Can’t wait.”

The day after election day has been so much fun the past two times, let’s make it three.

Imagine the looks on Pelosi’s and Reid’s faces when once again, they don’t get their fillibuster proof majority or their rubber stamp in the White House.

Sweetness.

NoDonkey on July 29, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Going to Europe and Blaming America First is not intelligent policy – but one most of the Dems and Libs have had for the last seven years. The Chickens have come home to roost.

Travis1 on July 29, 2008 at 12:22 PM

It is not callled party unity, it is called common sense.

saus on July 29, 2008 at 12:23 PM

For having spent more than anyone ever, Obama’s not in much of a lead. So much for the Second Coming.

CP on July 29, 2008 at 12:24 PM

92% to 5% among African-Americans…

Racist much?

tommylotto on July 29, 2008 at 12:12 PM

That might have applied in the Dem primary against Hillary, but in the general it doesn’t. They voted for Clinton and Gore – two fat southern white guys – in the same numbers.

Jaibones on July 29, 2008 at 12:27 PM

…otherwise known as the dead cat bounce.

Wyznowski on July 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM

Racist much?

This is racialist voting not racist.

It seems to me that there’s a major (okay, at least not small) difference between voting against someone because of his or her race as opposed to voting for someone because of that quality.

I’m a little queasy in either case; but less so over the latter.

Anyway, I still think it Obama’s to lose.

SteveMG on July 29, 2008 at 12:34 PM

Supposedly the “Reagan effect” is going to propel Obama to the same sort of victory

well nobama is no Reagan , He cant face off in a debate he can only read from a teleprompter and give empty speeches about nothing but hope and change .

Mojack420 on July 29, 2008 at 12:35 PM

I don’t know any McCain voters who are for McCain. All of the McCain voters I know are simply against Obama.

obladioblada on July 29, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Don’t bet your 401/403Ks on any of them, yet.

Inevitability and “being in one’s crotch” isn’t what the media think it is. Just ask Hillary.

Entelechy on July 29, 2008 at 1:23 PM

I think that Obama is starting to creep people out in general. McCain might piss off conservatives because he is not Newt Gingrich or whatever, but thus far I have not heard rumblings that he is the anti Christ…unlike his opponent.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 1:55 PM

obladioblada:

My God, what a handle. I am for McCain. I don’t faint when he speaks or chant his name while my eyes glaze over, but I respect and admire the man.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 1:56 PM

And in all due respect to the self proclaimed McCain haters on the right, they had their chance to promote and support someone else. They did not manage to succeed at that. McCain won fair and square. It was not the open primary system or any other excuse I have heard people come up with. He is the guy rank and file Republicans supported this time around. They are not all stupid, or traitors to their party, or closet Democrats either.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 2:00 PM

McCain is gaining ground daily at realclearpolitics.com

Hunt035 on July 29, 2008 at 2:00 PM

McCain will be the next President.

The American people will not put a man into the White House who is completely unqualified.

Obama’s not qualified.

The man shouldn’t even be in the Senate, much less running for President. Just another in a long series of crappy Democrat candidates for President.

NoDonkey on July 29, 2008 at 2:22 PM

I think that Obama is starting to creep people out in general. McCain might piss off conservatives because he is not Newt Gingrich or whatever, but thus far I have not heard rumblings that he is the anti Christ…unlike his opponent.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 1:55 PM

I’m starting to think this will be his downfall. The American Character just doesn’t take well to idol worshipping in its leaders. There’s going to be a backlash.

Dudley Smith on July 29, 2008 at 2:37 PM

Palin just had a baby and that baby has down syndrome. The MSM libs will play hardcore gender, mother, and abortion politics against her. By the end of their narrative manipulation, a lot of those women will end up hating Palin for not aborting considering like 90% of down syndrome children who are diagnosed early are aborted.

What a load of crap you just made up! A majority of women oppose abortion except in extreme cases, so Palin will come off as a strong feminist who practices what she preaches, I suspect. And if the media piles on, it helps her.

DaveS on July 29, 2008 at 2:42 PM

They are not all stupid, or traitors to their party, or closet Democrats either.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 2:00 PM

“When you can’t debate on logic, resort to name calling”… it’s not just a Liberal trait anymore!… is it? I keep getting Liberals and RINOs confused…

Btw, I did promote and back someone else. However, it is not my responsibility to fall in lockstep with some monolithic party, it is your responsibility to convince me of the strength of the candidate. I am a Conservative first and a Republican second.

dominigan on July 29, 2008 at 3:04 PM

And in all due respect … stupid, or traitors to their party, or closet Democrats either.

Terrye on July 29, 2008 at 2:00 PM

I think this speaks volumes in regards to your principles…

dominigan on July 29, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Terrye @ 2:00

I don’t hate McCain and do believe that there is much to admire and respect about him. I will be voting for him. That doesn’t mean that he’s my choice for Prez, but he happens to be the Not-Obama.

There are also liberals who I admire and respect, but they wouldn’t be my choice for Prez, either.

O/T: Why “My God, what a handle”? Just curious, not sure what you mean.

obladioblada on July 29, 2008 at 3:46 PM

The higher ratings for McCain are likely due to the unceasing efforts of McCain haters on the right to annoy and irritate anyone who doesn’t share their point of view, that real conservatives should want Obama in the White House.

You mis-understand – not that I’m shocked – but we’d actually like a conservative in the White House, something that hasn’t happened since January 1988…sadly, John McCain is no Ronald Reagan.

I R A Darth Aggie on July 30, 2008 at 9:32 AM