Can Obama win the South?
posted at 8:45 am on July 28, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The Barack Obama campaign has begun spending heavily on GOTV operations in Georgia, Virginia, and Florida, as well as other Southern states in an attempt to roll back the GOP’s stronghold. Most of these efforts focus on potential African-American voters who have not registered to vote in the past, which leads the Washington Post to wonder whether Obama can win the South with this strategy. Overall, it looks like a long shot:
Gaining greater African American support could well put Obama over the top in states where Democrats have come close in the past two elections, and could also help him retain the big swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.
If 95 percent of black voters support Obama in November, in line with a recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with other voters that year.
Obama can win Nevada if he increases black turnout by 8 percent. Ohio was so close in 2004 that if Obama wins 95 percent of the black vote, more than Kerry did, he will win the state without a single extra voter. But an increase in overall black turnout could help offset a poorer performance among other voters.
The push has also raised Democrats’ hopes of reclaiming Southern states with large black populations, such as Georgia and North Carolina, where low turnout among voters of all races has left much more untapped potential than in traditionally competitive states such as Ohio. Obama, who himself led a huge voter-registration drive in Chicago in 1992, has said he could compete in states such as Mississippi by increasing black turnout by 30 percent.
A Post analysis suggests it will take more than that to win across the South. If Obama matches Kerry’s performance among white voters and increases Democrats’ share of black voters to 95 percent, he will still need to increase black turnout in Georgia by 64 percent and in Mississippi by 51 percent to win. Virginia and North Carolina would be in closer reach, requiring increases of 30 and 36 percent, respectively.
So the effort will probably not help win Obama the South, but could the effort hurt him? Unlike John McCain, who accepted public financing, Obama has no spending limits on his campaign. As long as he can keep up the level of fundraising seen in June — a very big if — then Obama can afford to throw away money on states he won’t win in November. If his fundraising doesn’t meet expectations, then Obama will be spending money that he can’t afford to waste on essentially unproductive efforts.
The Post also makes a couple of assumptions in this analysis that don’t acknowledge reality. First, black voters have supported Democratic presidential tickets at about a 90-9 split the last three or four elections. It’s possible that Obama might squeeze an extra couple of points out of the nine Kerry left on the table, but it seems unlikely that Obama would win half of the black vote that George W Bush won in 2004 to get to 95%. That small group appears committed to the conservative cause, maybe more so than Bush, and already resistant to identity-politics pressures.
The bigger risk is assuming that these new voters will come out to the polls in November. In reading the anecdotes the Posts publishes, the people who have registered had to have their arms twisted to bother. With that level of motivation, they’re unlikely to feel enthused enough to wait in line on a workday to cast a vote in the general election. Some might, but most will probably shrug off voting as they have done in the past.
Team Obama knows better than to rely on this as their main strategy. Obama has moved his rhetoric to the center, attempting to win back the white working-class vote that he lost in the last three months of the primaries. That’s where his team will focus, but as long as he has the cash, Obama will hedge his bets as best he can.
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Cash? Obama might have it, but he might have to help out the DNC, which may have inflated its June fundraising just a tad..
Wethal on July 28, 2008 at 8:49 AM
For Lord Barack so loved his followers that he became a citizen of the world, so that who so ever believeth in him shall not parrish, but shall recieve government checks for the rest of their life.
Obama 3:16
Pcoop on July 28, 2008 at 8:50 AM
What’s more amazing, 95% or the fact that I’m surprised it isnt higher?
Dash on July 28, 2008 at 8:52 AM
I thought he was supposed to be the “post racial” candidate.
If it works, kudos for him. It just strikes me as the opposite of what he is running on. Will the media draw comparisons with the “Nixon” strategy of years ago?
cozmo on July 28, 2008 at 8:58 AM
Your assumption is also that the GOP will have the same # of voters in these three states as in 2004. Wrong! Of all my GOP friends in GA, no one is excited about McCain and most are actually open talking about voting for Barr as a protest vote. Southern GOP voters are not motivated up to this point.
luckybogey on July 28, 2008 at 8:59 AM
Big problem with the theory that turning out the black vote in higher numbers will equate to an Obama victory; it’s called the “white vote”… Kerry turned out the left leaning white vote in huge numbers; Obama will not for many reasons, one of which is telling white people that if they don’t vote for Obama, they’re racists, while his hand picked Rev is busy preaching hatred for white folks.
This race depends upon the white vote and the brown vote; the black vote is a given.
Keemo on July 28, 2008 at 9:00 AM
Can McCain win?
McCain’s pointed hatred of social conservatives and evangelicals comes to a head down here in the South. Throw in a large black population enthused at the ability to vote for “one of their own (sorta)” and you have a recipe where McCain’s chances are less hopeful as they normally would have been. I blame the GOP elites who decided on the stragegy of throwing out traditional GOP values for whatever the hell McCain and the RINOs represent.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 9:08 AM
You guys are assuming that all Obama wants to do is just GOTV. He’s mobilizing for his 8-10-1000 year reign. Alasdair Macintyre had it right, modern politics is just emotivist civil war and Bambi has them emoting. The GOP is failing to figure out that elections and political positions mean little if they don’t have community and culture. They had better start developing and mobilizing. They need to drop the dogmatism and put problem solving and creativity first. Republicans look lazy when they fail to take leadership and just wait for the invisible hand. They also need to learn how to communicate and attach their polices to successes.
ninjapirate on July 28, 2008 at 9:08 AM
Obama is a globalist. His condescending attitude toward average Americans will have its toll. If it wasn’t for racisim, a complete shell like Obama running for president would be a complete joke. The blacks have always been the difference in electing democrats. Without their complete control over the black vote, they would not exist. Some will say that is a racist statement. Voting 95% is not racist? Saddam Hussein couldn’t get that in Iraqi voting and he was the only name on the ballot.
volsense on July 28, 2008 at 9:09 AM
Obama said there are 57 States
so 50 + apparently Israel, Germany, France, Britain……atleast 3 more States judging by Obama’s campaigning he intends to seize as President of the World. I’m sure he’d trade the south for europe
jp on July 28, 2008 at 9:09 AM
Can you blame them? Georgia Republicans care about traditional values including faith and the sanctity of marriage. McCain has gone out of his way to alienate the typical Southern voter in his attempts to peel off Democrats. It’s going to cost him the election.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 9:10 AM
RCP toss ups right now: FL, NC, VA, OH, NH, IN, MO, CO, NM, NV (10 states)
Toss out NC and IN and put them in Mac’s total and my man is still in a world of hurt. FL, OH, MO, VA…..if he loses any ONE of those four he can’t win. If he takes all four he still has to have CO and either NM, NH, or NV. That is one hell of a tall order, pulling eight of those ten states.
Then again, Obama is doing a good job keeping Mac in the race right now. It will be an early election night. We’ll know after the polls close in the eastern time zone who is the next CIC.
Limerick on July 28, 2008 at 9:17 AM
Bin Obama has herds of misty eyed volunteers hittin the hood to register people with politically correct pigmentaton to vote - with the full expectation that they will vote for a candidate based on the #1 issue on their platform: Our candidate is black!
The good news is that if they have to chase these people down and work on them for weeks (as the stroy says) just to get them to register, the likelyhood of them suddenly having an “awakening” and making the HUGE effort to put down the crack pipe on election day and stumbling into a voting booth is pretty slim - especially when you are dealing with mindsets like this:
Translation: I slept through civics and missed the lesson about our form of government being a constitutional republic replete with an electoral college which prevents snake oil sales men from winning the presidency by promising the peasants that he’ll give them more of the working citizens stuff.
Translation: I want the fools who pay taxes to give me more of their money or else I aint voting.
Exit question: can you mention “shackles” in a story about the black community, isn’t that like referencing lynching, devils food cake and black holes? Oh, it’s a liberal feel-good story, different rules apply.
Alden Pyle on July 28, 2008 at 9:21 AM
Money is no issue for B.O., as long as he pays homage and worship to his True Master, Darth Soros.
pilamaye on July 28, 2008 at 9:22 AM
What will help BarryO the most are the former GOP voters who’ve become exasperated with the political process and have simply dropped out. His ace in the hole. In my opinion thats what happened on 11/7/06. If McCain can find some way to get those folks re-energized within the next 100 days.
I do believe that the youth vote is not going to turn out for BO like they have for his rally’s. Rally’s are fun. A place to p/u chicks etc or be picked up if you are a chick. But voting is dull and you have to stand in a long line. Bummer.
Additionally, the Hispanic vote is not going to surge for BO as much as folks think, either. He’ll get a thin majority but the Hispanic vote is way over-rated anyway. DD
Darvin Dowdy on July 28, 2008 at 9:23 AM
No! Here in GA he will win Dekalb and Clayton counties, 2 largely African American counties, one with a murder a day and the other with a school system which starting in Sep will no longer be accreditated and both suburbs of Atlanta. Outside of that he won’t win anything.
Our next largest cities are Columbus, home to Ft Benning, and Savannah, home to Ft Stewart. After his slight of the military in not giving them any credit for the surge and failure to visit the soldiers at Ramstein and Landstuhl and his refusal to meet with the family members at a townhall meeting in the Ft Hood, TX area he can pretty much kiss the rest of the state goodbye.
It ain’t that Georgians are in love with McCain, it is just they realize the alternative is far too dangerous to contemplate.
Just A Grunt on July 28, 2008 at 9:23 AM
In order for McCain to make any dent in the South, he would need to be a conservative. Whoops! Somehow I don’t think Hillary voters are going to assist him in Georgia, South Carolina or Louisiana! He’s also going to get stomped here in Minnesota by not inspiring conservatives like me who really don’t give a rip about him…
sabbott on July 28, 2008 at 9:26 AM
W slept the entire debate, only to capitalize on Kerry’s “World Test” & won the election. McCain better catch up on the Bush-Cheney tactics.
Anita on July 28, 2008 at 9:27 AM
Communism is not big in the south, they prefer freedom.
tarpon on July 28, 2008 at 9:32 AM
Let me get this straight:
IF 50% of “whites” vote for McCain, they are…..Racists?
If 95% of “blacks” vote for Obama, they are…….what exactly???
Oh, I thought so….
Dale in Atlanta on July 28, 2008 at 9:35 AM
Here in rural western TN, in a hugely democratic county, what strikes me most is the signs. Or rather lack of them. Last go round this area was a virtual sea of kerry signs, and there are still hundreds of those bumper stickers to be seen. This year, 99 days out, I honestly can’t think of seeing a single sign anywhere and very few stickers. I hear loads of grumbles and the locals just don’t seem excited at all about their nominee. The flip side to this is there are no McCain signs either and our local Republican club has, for all intents, closed up shop. Honestly, here in my little corner of fly over country no one seems happy with either choice. Visually it is hard to believe the election is less than 100 days away. Just a normal lazy hot summer here.
dustoffmom on July 28, 2008 at 9:42 AM
Oh, and although it is very un-PC to say so…..yes, this is the south and yes, it is absolutely ‘red neck country’….’nuff said about how the local dems feel.
dustoffmom on July 28, 2008 at 9:45 AM
Highhopes……… You are 100% correct…… No one is listening!
luckybogey on July 28, 2008 at 9:50 AM
The Dems are motivated by messiah worship.
Come November, Republicans will be motivated by Obamarxist fear.
Fear is a great motivator!
jgapinoy on July 28, 2008 at 9:56 AM
As long as your “GOP Friends” understand that a vote for Barr is a vote for Obama, (against McCain) It shouldn’t take much “motivation” to understand this reality.
Rovin on July 28, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Plenty of Southern voters will be motivated to vote “NObama”.
.
The smugness of Barack & Michelle may justify considering their children a ‘punishment’, but that just makes BHO easier to vote against.
.
The percentage who will say they will vote for Obama AND intend to vote against him is large. Obama consistently under-performs his poll numbers, but this should be a lerger effect in the South.
Right_of_Attila on July 28, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Don’t you think that social conservatives will just hold their noses and vote for McCain rather than risk an Obama presidency?
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 10:04 AM
I don’t think he can win the South. Right or wrong, his color is also going to be a motivator for others.
drjohn on July 28, 2008 at 10:08 AM
Georgia may be competitive in presidential election
luckybogey on July 28, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Why is Hugh Hewitt on the phone behind Obama in the picture on this post? I wondered where he went on his summer vacation.
Captain Scarlet on July 28, 2008 at 10:38 AM
You have a raging case of MDS- McCain Default Syndrome. You’d rather sacrifice any pretense of standing for a stated set of principles for the defeat of a political candidate.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Do we have to go through this AGAIN? My vote is my vote. It is not your vote, and you have no say in it. You are using the word “motivation” much like the Democrats and unions. If you want me to vote for “your” candidate, then you have to give me compelling reasons. And don’t give me any of this Obama, voting against him. If McCain enough of a candidate to stand on his own platform, why should I vote for him?
dominigan on July 28, 2008 at 10:39 AM
err… if McCain isn’t enough of a candidate to stand on his own platform, why should I vote for him?
dominigan on July 28, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Trying to squeeze more votes out of black voters is like taxing the rich even more than now. The Dhimmicrat percentage of the black vote was already around 90% so big diff!
Mojave Mark on July 28, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Obama is George McGovern II with a one difference.
Racism.
The racism of the blacks in this country. That will help Obama in some places in overall it will be a detriment. Because there is already a growing backlash against the constant use of the race card, threats of violence if they do not get their way and other bullying tactics by the Obamaniacs. From the national use of the race card by them to incidents on a smaller scale such as the one that happened in Sugar Land last week it is a steady trickle that will eventually become a flood as we get nearer to election day. In the end the Obamaniacs will discover that their tactics of racism and bullying will be one of main reasons why they failed. Of course they will not see it that way because their ingrained racism blinds them.
The one thing they are beginning to risk is that their actions will set back race relations a generation because people will start to see all black people as racists.
Nahanni on July 28, 2008 at 10:41 AM
No, I don’t but that seems to be McCain’s strategy- “the bastards are going to vote for me anyway so why do I need to pay attention to them” plan. Frankly from where I am sitting the risk of McCain or Obama is about the same. McCain with the Democrat congress is going to be virtually identical to Obama.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Same here in New Orleans. Nobody likes the choices to the point of actually showing support.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 10:43 AM
From the article luckybogey linked:
I don’t think McCain is going to win in a landslide in Georgia, but at the end of the day, a few hardcore fundamentalists will stay home and the rest will vote McCain. I think Obama’s obvious disdain for the military is going to hurt him very badly in a state with several major military installations and many families (including mine) with a family member serving or having served.
doppelganglander on July 28, 2008 at 10:44 AM
If JUAN would run a campaign for victory, he would probably carry all but Illinois. But the way he is running he will be doing good to win Arizona…
pueblo1032 on July 28, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Agree in all respects except national Security/Military. That is the sole place I actually feel there is any real difference between them.
dustoffmom on July 28, 2008 at 10:45 AM
There’s the rub- McCain’s platform isn’t exactly one that inspires and motivates the GOP base, particularly in the South. He can’t run on his platform because it would further alienate a portion of the base that deeply distrusts the man in the first place.
I think we just saw the beginning of the downfall of McCain’s strategy to replace conservatives with disgruntled Democrats. Polling indicates the Democrats are coming around to the idea of voting in Obama. McCain is still out there distancing himself from social conservatives and evangelicals. Protest votes for Barr or whomever are more and more likely so long as McCain’s campaign continues with their current set of priorities and positions. Instead of strong anti-illegal rhetoric or anti-gay marriage rhetoric or pro-life rhetoric; McCain is talking like a liberal Democrat with caveats about the need to reform the system to help “undocumented immigrants.”
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 10:50 AM
One other thing — I think part of Obama’s strategy for winning the south is simply claiming it’s competitive, absent any real facts to support the assertion. (Sound familiar?) It’s a marketing ploy — just as a movie trailer will call an unreleased movie “the biggest hit of the summer season” or a brand new nightclub is referred to as a hotspot before it opens its doors. The mere expectation and talking it up goes a long way to making it actually competitive. So for the AJC (a typical left-wing rag) to claim Georgia is competitive is just a way to introduce the idea and possibly get people to think about jumping on the Obamessiah’s bandwagon — you know, if all the other cool kids are voting for him.
doppelganglander on July 28, 2008 at 10:51 AM
I could have said this part clearer. I do think that McCain is better on the area of national security. The problem is that with a Democrat congress (to the point of a possible veto-proof Senate), what McCain wants to do in these areas would be severely limited. Likewise the other old saw about the SCOTUS nominees. McCain isn’t going to nominate a Scalia or Roberts to the bench because his nominee would go down in defeat due to Democrat partisanship. At best, we’d get another Souter instead of another Ginsberg and even that would be a political battle with the Senate Democrats.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 10:57 AM
I can’t speak for Georgia but there may be some truth in what you are saying vis-a-vis Louisiana. Virginia, on the other hand, is definitely in play for the first time since 1960.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 11:07 AM
ok…..so how would you have said what I said clearer? I think it’s pretty clear as you seem to have gathered the gist of it.
dustoffmom on July 28, 2008 at 11:10 AM
I respectfully disagree. With an Obama presidency and a democratic congress, we WILL see higher taxes, more regulation, liberal justices, more environmental restrictions, more money spent on social services, more government handouts, the very real possibility of socialized medicine… I could go on and on…
At least with a McCain presidency, we would still have a fighting chance - especially if, through some sort of voodoo magic, we don’t end up with a veto-proof senate.
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 11:13 AM
You’re basing your premise on the idea that McCain is going to be a fighter when it comes to standing up to Democrats on issues like taxation, SCOTUS nominees, etc. McCain is no Reagan. He doesn’t stand for principles over political expediency. His most prominent fights over the past decade have all been with conservative Republicans not Democrats.
I simply don’t have that kind of faith when McCain is out there talking about capping oil company profits, talking about raising “some” taxes, calling for US particiapation in a Kyoto-like treaty, etc. McCain is going to sell the farm, fold like a cheap suit, or pick for favorite metaphor for simply going along with whatever the Congress wants. I hope there is something more to McCain’s character than the bitter hate-filled political opportunist we see out there on the campaign trail pandering to the left and completely ignoring the base constituency (particularly in the South) that was the key to the GOP’s success since 1980.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 11:24 AM
To clarify, I believe that GA will at the end of the day stay Red however for us to even be debating this issue highlights the problem.
The other day I was listening on the radio to the Mayor of Tybee who is the Chairman of McCain’s campaign for the Savannah area. He spent the first 15 minutes defending McCain being a conservative.
Now add the perception that Grandpa McCain does not campaign on weekends nor even use a computer illustrates the fact the the “nex-gen” voters are coming out for Obama in droves although I have read that Cindy does have a blog!
Note that also the AJC article (6/15) states that the McCain campaign does not even have a permanent staff in GA? I give the Dems credit, they are running a very good campaign and the GOP needs someone or somebody to stop this train wreck now!
luckybogey on July 28, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Come on, highhopes!! Live up to your moniker - have high hopes. We all know McCain is not the perfect candidate. He’s not even close - but he’s all we have right about now.
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 11:33 AM
The flip side to this whole debate is whether or not we should just give the presidency to Obama and let his policies create a political disaster for him. This would buy us four years of time to find our own conservative Messiah.
The question then is if the republic can survive four years of hopeandchange.
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 11:36 AM
“With that level of motivation, they’re unlikely to feel enthused enough to wait in line on a workday”
That’s quite an assumption, a good percentage of Obama voters will not have to worry about taking time off from work to vote for the messiah.
Whether they can sleep off the hangover from the previous evening in time to stagger to the polls, is the real question.
NoDonkey on July 28, 2008 at 11:39 AM
And shame on US for getting to this situation.
I will fully live up to my moniker by putting faith in the people over the next four years. The worst of the McCain/Obama/Democrat initiatives can still be stopped by the voice of the people in the way that the McCain/Kennedy plot for amnesty was thwarted by outraged citizens.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 11:46 AM
McCain has always had contempt for the conservative base. As a proud member of said base, I think the only hope we have is for McCain to lose bad. With a double digit McCain loss, the Republican party will get the message that we the conservative base are not intolerant, racist, bigot, homophobes, but are small government, tax cutting, strong defense voters who are not reached by either party. The RNC needs us, and their leadership does not reflect this very fact. We aren’t the base to be placated with the occasional bone, we are the party and our priority should be the party’s priority.
Don’t even try to convince me to vote for McCain, I firmly believe Americans are victims of their own prosperity. I firmly believe we need a walk in the wilderness to remind us how good we have/had it.
/Resume lurking.
Angry Dumbo on July 28, 2008 at 11:57 AM
I agree completely. I think more people would get involved with politics if it was guaranteed that their private lives would be off-limits. I know I would. I don’t even have many skeletons, but the ones I do have need to stay in the closet. So, I’m left with writing letters and making phone calls to congressmen who don’t listen, letters to the editor that don’t get published and reading blogs. Sad.
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 11:58 AM
The thing is, African-Americans do vote, and pretty much in proportion. Those black nonvoters are no different from white nonvoters. Blacks only make up about 12-13 percent of the population, and according to Wikipedia were 11 percent of the vote in 2004. Obamajebus can only squeeze another 1-3 percent of the vote out of these guys.
Another problem is that in order to get the black vote, you can’t go wrong bashing Whitey—which just brings Whitey out to vote.
Sekhmet on July 28, 2008 at 12:00 PM
Another “factor” is supposedly the Bob Barr vote. Barr voters are going to turn out mostly to be disappointed Ron Paul voters, and for all the hype they raised online, we saw how much that translated into votes in the primaries—-in other words, it didn’t.
Sekhmet on July 28, 2008 at 12:11 PM
I think the Messiah is heading towards a McGovernesque defeat in Novemeber.
EJDolbow on July 28, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Can Obama win the South? No.
Can he divide and conquer to the point of riots? “Yes, We Can!”
newton on July 28, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Your keyboard to some kindly god’s inbox!
Sekhmet on July 28, 2008 at 12:30 PM
That’s more like it.
stefanite on July 28, 2008 at 12:33 PM
I think voter turn-out would go up and there’d be more substantive debate if individuals didn’t feel that their participation in the process was so meaningless. Congressmen don’t even make a pretense of reading letters or listening to the electorate. At best you get a response months-later defending their position. Nobody reads newspaper letters to the editor so that is hardly a worthwile forum to get one’s ideas out.
I think the solution is to get rid of the political class in society. No! Not through anarchy but through real term limits. Teddy Kennedy, for example, hasn’t worked an honest day in his life (in Congress since the 1960s). Congress has become too comfortable with itself and incumbency when what is required is a continual refreshment of the political pool by those with new ideas and perspectives.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 12:39 PM
.
The problem with this theory is that Obama is not going to match Kerry’s performance among white voters. There are a lot of dems who will not vote for him.
Think_b4_speaking on July 28, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Not to sound Clintonian here but “Novemeber” has never been a good month for Democrats but their chances are pretty good in November! ;-0
I hope you don’t take offense at pointing out the typo but it was just too good an opening to pass up. It would have to be a pretty big gaffe for Obama to reach a 1972-like defeat. The MSM is clearly part of his propaganda machine. His opponent is hardly a beloved character who is able to rally the GOP to his cause. Would you care to elaborate how McCain goes from a 9 point lead in the latest polling (I know- meaningless at this point) to a landslide for cranky old bastard?
The only way I can see a 1972 repeat is huge Obama gaffe, a hitherto undisclosed character issue in Obama’s life to undermine his carefully crafted facade, or a McCain medical condition that would force the GOP elites to find a real candidate instead of propping up a RINO who isn’t finding the kind of support necessary to expect anything but a 51/49 outcome.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Because of his views, right?
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Number one, how does the electorate impose term limits on them? THEY are the only ones who can vote for term limits and they’ve been riding the gravy train for so long that only a fool would vote himself off of it!!
Number two, it is cost-prohibitive to run for office. Only the truly wealthy have the money to run for office these days - especially if the candidate is from a large city. (This might not hold true for a candidate from a small town or district.)
So many candidates “promise” to stay in office for only one or two terms, but once they are voted in, they figure out that it’s a pretty darn good deal and most reneg on their promises.
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Which is why voluntary term limits or electorate-derived term limits don’t work. Down here in New Orleans, William Jefferson still has a loyal following of fools who will vote for the man every time because of the pork he brings into the city. Personally I like Virginia’s system where the Governor can only serve two non-concurrent terms. Keeps things mixed up.
Term limits would have to come about by a popular movement and an amendment to the Constitution. It clearly isn’t likely to happen but that doesn’t mean that it is the wrong idea.
The whole reason McCain took away some of our First Amendment rights. Realistically, I’m for public funding at a very low level and more stringent rules about what is political advertising and what is merely and advocacy message.
Ideally, I’d hand the candidate’s a box of markers, some posterboard and glitter and tell them that they can make all posters they want but they have to stick to substantive debate if they want to get their message out on the airwaves. Think about it, why do we put ourselves through months of ads telling half-truths (or less) to smear the other candidates. Why not clean up the airwaves by making it harder to put out attack ads.
highhopes on July 28, 2008 at 2:25 PM
How true. We have Solomon Ortiz in my neck of the woods. It never ceases to amaze me.
Especially for someone like Obama who is running what seems like a campaign for head cheerleader instead of POTUS. A soda machine in every classroom! A’s for everyone! Free lunch! (oh yeah, they already get that…)
pullingmyhairout on July 28, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Can he get elected? Will he be able too pump gas with out getting shot?! Re: Michelle O
- The Cat
MirCat on July 28, 2008 at 6:13 PM