Ahmadinejad: We have 5,000 centrifuges up and running, or maybe 6,000
posted at 6:30 pm on July 26, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The precise number’s in dispute. What’s not in dispute: (a) If he’s telling the truth and they’re running proper cascades, then per the “3,000 centrifuges = 1 bomb per year” rule, Iran’s now capable of producing HEU sufficient for one weapon in six or seven months or considerably sooner if the centrifuges they’re using are the new IR-2 model; and (b) he’s certainly learned the right lesson from Bush’s willingness to meet face to face without preconditions. In his own words:
“The West wanted us to stop,” he was quoted as telling a group of scholars. “We resisted, and now they want to resume negotiations.”
Who knows what tasty concessions further resistance might win?
I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind you that he’s made dubious boasts about their capabilities before, but I’d be equally remiss if I didn’t also remind you that a “senior UN official” said a few months ago that 6,000 centrifuges in place by summer was “pretty much plausible” and ElBaradei himself admitted not long ago that they’re capable of building a bomb in six months to a year. This goes back to my point in the last Iran nuke post: The UN is not denying that there’s a very serious threat here. Casual news followers who take Iraqi WMDs as their frame of reference and who assume that the UN and U.S. are always at odds on proliferation are apt to think this is another case of Bush pushing alarmism where none exists. Not so, and less so today than yesterday.
Exit question: Any hopeful spin at all to be found here? Maybe they’re beating their chest about the number of centrifuges in order to impress the public ahead of a planned climbdown on enrichment? Now that they’ve built a nuclear apparatus capable of striking terror in the hearts of the west, they can make a deal with the UN without completely losing face at home. No? Help me out here.
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I think we will find out they were lying like Saddam
tomas on July 26, 2008 at 6:33 PM
How many of them are photoshoped?
Entelechy on July 26, 2008 at 6:35 PM
The question still remains, they may have the centerfuges, but are they providing usable material. ANd there is no way to tell until something explodes.
Canadian Imperialist Running Dog on July 26, 2008 at 6:36 PM
Maybe they felt the need to rattle the sabres after being exposed in the photoshopped missle launch?
trubble on July 26, 2008 at 6:37 PM
Iran’s nuclear ‘capabilities’ might turn out to be at par with the former Iron Curtain.
The challenge is to find out if that’s true.
Entelechy on July 26, 2008 at 6:38 PM
If the Israelis are concerned, noting intelligence on Syrian strike for example, it’s good enough for me. Which from me, sadly, means no helpful spin.
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 6:39 PM
If we all join hands and become won shining light of hope throughout the world…I think we can find out.
tomas on July 26, 2008 at 6:40 PM
No.
Riposte on July 26, 2008 at 6:41 PM
we need to try a radical new approach with them. i mean something really bold, maybe even, and i know this might seem too far out there, but how about some kind of big carrot/big stick strategy? that’ll fix ‘em, and good.
AdrianG on July 26, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Sounds like they finally found the clone tool in photoshop. We should be worried, very worried.
muyoso on July 26, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Never fear. All we have to do is “come together” and “tear down walls.” Then it’ll all be okay.
Or maybe we should just photoshop a giant smoking hole in the ground where Teheran used to be to make our point.
aero on July 26, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Their toy airforce must be dealt with first!
bbz123 on July 26, 2008 at 6:52 PM
It’s almost as if he’s goading us or Israel into an attack. From a purely strategic POV, boasting about being “close” is pure stupidity unless:
1)You already have several A-bombs and are looking for an excuse to use them or;
2) You are completely mad and think Allah’s got your back.
Remember a few weeks ago when one of the Mullahs told him to shut up? Maybe he’s just completely insane.
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 6:53 PM
What’s that whistling sound? Why it’s Israeli bombs!
MaiDee on July 26, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Whatever. I think the exact number of centrifuges means more to them than it does to us. 6000 or 60000 or 6 … it’s all the same. Heck, lets send them six million of the suckers. Wont matter a bit when they are at the bottom of a smoking hole in the ground.
crosspatch on July 26, 2008 at 6:54 PM
Besides, who says those centrifuges are in Iran? They could be doing their research in Venezuela for all we know.
crosspatch on July 26, 2008 at 6:55 PM
ROFLMAO! Libs really think the people are complete idiots.
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Being we just got the last of the nuke material out of Iraq, I think it would be more than prudent to BOMB IRAN NOW! Why wait?
HotAirExpert on July 26, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Our plan to defeat the Iranian nuke threat seems to somehow include making us look weak. I don’t understand why we we play the nogotiating game past a certain point. How does looking weak help our strategy? Now the damn Russians are flying nuke bombers into Cuba. Is it just me or does anyone else feel like the last thing we need is for foreign vultures to perceive us as weak?
Guardian on July 26, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Nothing good can come from this.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on July 26, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Helpful! JPost says lying, probably.
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 6:57 PM
BOMB BOMB BOMB, BOMB BOMB IRAN!! BOMB BOMB BOMB, BOMB BOMB IRAN!! BOMB IRAAAAANNN! – a moment I was proud of McCain
HotAirExpert on July 26, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 6:59 PM
Bush can’t do it. The country would explode. Gas would go to $10 a gallon. The Dems would try to have him arrested. It’s just not going to happen. The Israelis are going to have to do it and we’ll have to back them up if they get into military trouble.
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 6:59 PM
Because we are morally superior beings who are very happy to have our cities nuked to prove how morally superior we are.
They smell blood in the water. They know that the West is not willing to defend itself – unless it can be done ‘diplomatically’. Sad stuff.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 7:04 PM
I wouldn’t take A-jad too seriously. He probably has one centrifuge and he’s photoshopped it to look like 6,000.
Cicero43 on July 26, 2008 at 7:04 PM
So basically he wants to be attacked and get his ass kicked so he can look like a defender? Not buying it. He’ll look weak. The country will look weak and he’d end up in the grave. I can understand using it to pressure his techs but they are in a totalitarian state, there are less risky ways to push them than risking the whole project.
The smart play is to keep your mouth shut and push ahead. Once you’ve got the bomb(s) then you can rattle sabers. Not before.
There’s a piece of this puzzle missing.
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Are they going to arm their model airplanes with nukes or something?
lorien1973 on July 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM
That’s what I am starting to think. Watch Israel launch a preemptive strike and something or nothing is found in those location. When the dust settles, you will see resolution after resolution passed in the UN General Assembly officially labeling Israel as a terrorist state. Resolutions will be pushed by Russia/China/Iran threatening Israel to disarm or face sanctions or UN military action. I can totally see that happening. Where have I read that before? Oh yeah, Joel Rosenberg’s The Ezekiel Option.
It’s Gog and Magog time, baby. We’d better get ready.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on July 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM
How effective would a naval blockade be, along with a total shutdown of all road travel in and out? We could shut down major travel in and out of Iraq, Afghanistan, and hopefully Pakistan would comply, as well as the other bordering countries. I think Iran would shut down almost immediately without the flow of gas back into the country. Maybe the people would rise up finally and take out their insane leaders.
Well, it could happen.
redshirt on July 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Haha! The Pentagon really should engage in a public conflict that they call the “Photoshop War” and just start publishing outrageous doctored photos of fictional military capabilities and consequences to counter Iran’s Photoshop Offensive. Maybe our allies will get in on the fun, too, and we can make it into “World War III: The Fauxtographers’ Revenge.” I’ll bet we can Photoshop Iran into oblivion.
Problem with that idea is that Iran could then publish photos of its actual completed nukes and we’d simply admire how much their Photoshop skills are improving before the very real mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv takes us by complete surprise. Maybe not such a fun idea, after all.
aero on July 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM
We spend $30-40+ billion a year on intelligence resources, we have satellites that can read license plates on cars from thousands of miles up, we have the capability of intercepting every electronic communication around the world….
And yet we know almost squat about the nuclear program of the world’s leading supporter of terrorism. A nation run by fanatical zealots (or one) who believe that their savior has been hiding in a well or cave for hundreds of years and will appear shortly to save the world.
I think he’s bluffing.
But I’m not living in Israel.
SteveMG on July 26, 2008 at 7:08 PM
on a more serious note, does anybody else think that, if obama wins, something big is gonna happen between the election and the inauguration? if the israelis and americans tried something before the election, nobody knows what effect it would have come november and they wouldn’t want to take that risk. and they sure as heck don’t want to take the risk of trying something with obama as president. so my money would be on attacking iran during bush’s final month in office. if mccain wins, i don’t know.
AdrianG on July 26, 2008 at 7:08 PM
I don’t think he wants an attack, I think he wants to look like the guy protecting the Islamic world. If that can be done by political maneuvering and plastic model jets, fine.
I think they operate in a fundamentally different paradigm.
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 7:09 PM
The point, IMO, is that Ahmadididakfujad and the rest of Iran do not believe that there is any way they will be attacked by anyone. I guarantee all, if it were the Russians they were ticking off there would be people in Tehran running scared of the devastation that their government was going to bring down on them. But the US and Israel scare no one. They figure, at the very worst, the facilities would be bombed and the people will be left alone.
We have no deterrence left. None.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 7:09 PM
At this very moment the Israelis are beginning development of fighter planes made of scissors to counter Iran’s planes made of paper.
fogw on July 26, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Insanity from alla worshippers. Surprise!
saved on July 26, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Maybe it’s just a plastic model of 6000 centrifuges? In all seriousness, I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that Iran will soon become a major nuclear power in the region. There will be a huge arms race and things are going to be very hairy for about 10 years or so.
Weight of Glory on July 26, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Hey, Allah or Ed:
How about another open thread sometime this weekend?
aero on July 26, 2008 at 7:14 PM
There is no evidence that they are enriching the uranium beyond the 5% or so necessary to fuel a civilian reactor. In fact, as useless as the IAEA usually is, up to now they’ve been able to keep a close watch on what the Iranians have been producing. Unless there is a parallel program for the military, we can have pretty high confidence that the uranium they have enriched to date has not been enriched to the 85%-90% level required for nuclear bombs.
That, and they are still having a devil of a time synching up the machines so they run in cascade. There is plenty of evidence that what machines they have running in cascade break down frequently and that they are producing about 1/3 the amount of slightly enriched uranium as they could be.
But these are technical problems they will eventually get around to solving. While 6,000 centrifuges (the arms control experts I’ve read doubt they have the newer machines)sounds impressive, remember that the facility at Nantanz was built to house 50,000 of the MFers – all humming merrily along enriching enough uranium hex to build about 40 bombs a year – if they were able to somehow get the world to turn their backs long enough so they could enrich their 5% uranium to 85%.
Any hopeful sign? Depends on what you hope for. If you hope for peace and a stable Iraq, you hope the Iranians finally realize that their nuke program is making them a world pariah and that if they want economic development at home, they bargain like, well, Persian rug merchants for the best deal possible.
But I think the Iranians are prepared to take a big hit on their nuke infrastructure and let loose the hounds of hell on Iraq as well as unleashing Hezbullah on the west. They will not stop their enrichment program – too tied up in their national identity now. And chances are, enough of the program would be untouched by any military strike that they would be just a couple of years before they would be back to where they are now.
No good options. No good outcomes.
rick moran on July 26, 2008 at 7:14 PM
Haha. Are you doing autographs after the show? Great line.
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 7:18 PM
It is the bully taking the lunch money and yes it is really just that simple. The Iranians believe. They believe they are superior and they believe they have a destiny to make the west pass under the yoke.
Doesn’t matter if he has 300 or 30,000 running. Iranian bomb number #2 will proclaim they have come of age. I believe that nothing, short of being denied the technology, will stop bomb #2 from killing hundreds of thousands.
Waiting around to see if they pull the trigger is nuts. Just as nuts as a cop waiting around for some crook to fire first.
Limerick on July 26, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Meanwhile,back at *JPL,Near Earth Asteriod Tracking,
hey Bobby,should we put out a press release for that
nasty small asteriod,naw,lets hope,it should pass,
or slide straight through the upper atmosphere!
Ya,well,thats the thing,the computer model,and math
of been checked,rechecked and verified,somewhere in
Iran,there’s going to be a deep,smokeing,gapeing hole!
Did you say Iran,okay,okay,put out a possibility of a
near miss,let the astronomy guys sound the bells on
this thing! —————————–:)
*(canopfor,apologizes,to JPL,for any reference to canopfor
fantasy story,and doesn’t mean to besmirch the fine work
JPL performs protecting our Earth!)
canopfor on July 26, 2008 at 7:27 PM
It’s hard to imagine they could both do the former, and still be in a position to re-start their nuclear program a few years later.
JiangxiDad on July 26, 2008 at 7:42 PM
Assuming that the Penguin is not insane, the only way that his stance could make any sense is if he already had at least one nuke. Whether Nork or homegrown is irrelevant to the future victims.
OldEnglish on July 26, 2008 at 7:44 PM
With respect, rot. The war in Iraq is won. Bomb Tehran and any known nuclear development sites. Send in 20,000 angry US soldiers and Marines to Iran immediately following. Let the price of gasoline spike to $20 a gallon for a month or a year, if necessary. Get the damn thing over with once and for all — after a 30-year program of pussyfooting around.
JDPerren on July 26, 2008 at 7:50 PM
Wait wait, was obama counting? or are these Dinnerjackets centrifuges?
- The Cat
MirCat on July 26, 2008 at 7:52 PM
Iranian’s have a suicidal believe,and that came about during the Iraq/Iran war,when a young Iranian boy,strap-
ped a bomb to himself and threw himself under a Iraqi tank,
and Ka-Blooey!
To this day,this kid,or the Iranian child is a hero,but
this suicidal stuff also dates way back in the Persian
Empire!
Nothing,no big sticks,or big carrots,a la Obama speak,will
stop,change,or deter the Iranians!
Like the run-up to World War Two,put the German leader,
and Ackman-nuts in front of a mirror,you’ll get one of the
same!
Heres a thought,really,if the Germany leader had nuclear
weapons,do you really believe,with all the history,and re-
investigated history,Adolf would some how come to a moral
authority of not using them!
Could you imagine,if from the very start of WW2,the German’s
had a death wish,a believe fantasy of tall,blue-eyed,blond
buxom female virgins!
Now,there really is a country,Iran,who believe’s the planet
Earth is much better off,with Muslims running it,and heres
a kicker,half of the Muslims believe that the other half of
the Muslims are un-worthy!
And,where do you think Westerners,and even Arabs fit in,at
the real bottom,again un-worthy,very interesting!
Add it all up,stock pile nuclear weapons,set the date,have
all cities infultrated with Terrorists packing devices,half
the Muslims won’t make it,the 12th Iman,gets its freedom out
of the well,and Persia gets to do three attempts is a charm!
And like the beginning of the end,only a handful of canaries
were sounding the alarm,while the rest were in a mesmerized
haze!!————————————————-:)
canopfor on July 26, 2008 at 7:55 PM
Israeli nukes on several targets seem to be the logical conclusion here. Sorry.
Looking at the different scenarios, I don’t see a way out of it. If Iran had common sense, they’d go for a deal. But they have no common sense.
They’re outgunned. And they’ll pay.
wccawa on July 26, 2008 at 7:59 PM
The fact is that all problems with the arabs/iranians start and end at the gulf oil fields. As long as they are allowed to keep control of the fields (that they stole in the illegal nationalizations) they will be attacking the West.
Many in the West don’t want to hear this, but it’s the truth. The fields give them political and financial power, all of which they use in their fight against the West. If anyone truly wants to stop these serious threats, the gulf fields will eventually have to be taken.
On top of that, the oil is not even that important to them (since they don’t really produce much of anything) and they would be very happy to destroy the fields just to hurt us (see Saddam Hussein in ‘91). Until the West starts having a more serious view of the situation we are all in for some bad, bad times.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 8:00 PM
I think you are terribly wrong on that, and that 3/4 of their never ending bluster is precisely because they want to frighten and deter, make the concept of an attack unthinkable when it is not only thinkable, but already planned and executable if the decision comes to that. They have convinced you it is unthinkable effectively..
Saddam’s program was also forecasted to be back in 1-2 years, it never got off the ground again from 81. The Iranians have admitted their illicit program is over 18 years old, I say don’t assume too strongly that it will be up and ready again in 3 years, Iran’s economy is falling apart, so is their military, a program like that can cost tens to a hundred billion to accomplish and run, a military the same to rebuild. That is accounting just for the damage to programs from strikes, it is also a huge assumption to not factor the damage to Iran as a whole from that strike, domestically & worldwide, and the damage from their foolish calls regarding retaliation..
If Iran launches missiles at Tel Aviv, we have bigger better faster missiles than them, we can hammer Iran well beyond their program from land sea & air. If they fire long range missiles at our civilian population the gloves are off, we will return the favor conventionally 100 fold. The price for them if we strike is astronomical, which is why their threats are the equal.
People build up Iran, it is a nuclear weapon that is the concern, not Iran’s military or economic ability. They are glorified terrorists, in Israel we know how to stop terrorists, we multiply the pain they cause by a 1000.
This regime can enter the world community or be destroyed. Those are excellent options and even better outcomes imho.
saus on July 26, 2008 at 8:02 PM
I don’t think that’s true, is it?
I recall after the Gulf War that the inspectors discovered that he had put his program back together but had compartmentalized it to avoid discovery. And they were astonished to see how far he had gotten.
He was perhaps 1-2 years away from having a workable device.
At least that’s my recollection.
SteveMG on July 26, 2008 at 8:08 PM
The third comment of yours I’ve kept.
JiangxiDad on July 26, 2008 at 8:08 PM
The problem is that iranians don’t believe that Israel would do that (and neither do I). Israel has never attacked the capital (or any major city) of an enemy during war (Beirut doesn’t count because everyone was attacking Beirut). Israel can talk about doing things to Iran, but Iran doesn’t believe them. Israel has never done anything like it, even with a major war/intifada every decade since its inception. And Israel keeps giving back everything it wins, too. I’m sorry but I don’t think Israel scares anyone in Iran.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 8:10 PM
Lets put the shoe on the other foot,lets say Canada,
America,England,everyday,every week,kept telling Iran,
keep it up,and your gonna be vapourized,el disappearo!
How long,does one think,that Iran thinks any moment,
bye bye!
Well,thats what Iranians are telling,Isreal and America
on a daily basis!
Oh,and I don’t see any concerned “Iranians for peace”,
taking daily op-ed pieces around the world,saying a please
don’t kill us, after all were against our own government!:)
canopfor on July 26, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Excellent pitch. Let’s see if Saus hits it.
JiangxiDad on July 26, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Thanks Dad. I only wish it weren’t true.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 8:16 PM
This regime…..
saus on july 26,2008 at 8:02PM.
saus:The Iranians know,besides America,that Israel is the
road block to their expansion,since Persia,has twice
almost over run the Middleast,and Europe!
BTW saus,we here at Hot Air,want your thoughts on this
ordeal,Israel/Iran situation!:) :)
canopfor on July 26, 2008 at 8:21 PM
I have to go with your assessment. Israel has a history of being way too soft, for a country in such a tenuous situation.
OldEnglish on July 26, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I think so too, but I hope Saus comes back and answer that as well as SteveMG’s reference to Iraq rebuilding before they were, ahem, interrupted.
Spirit of 1776 on July 26, 2008 at 8:41 PM
You mean besides Baghdad when they blew up the Osirak reactor?
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 8:47 PM
C’mon, guys…
Israel has two options: conventional or nukes.
What would YOU do if you’re the PM?
wccawa on July 26, 2008 at 8:52 PM
Or when they launched a preemptive attack and destroyed the entire Egyptian air force in the Six Days war?
They have a history of taking out threats no matter where they are.
TheBigOldDog on July 26, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Surgical strikes only. No punishment sufficient to permanently dissuade further attacks.
OldEnglish on July 26, 2008 at 8:58 PM
We can hope that half of those centrifuges have been Photoshopped in, and that the other half are stamped ‘ERTL’ and ‘Made in China’ and are as plastic as their Air Force appears to be. Otherwise, I’ve got nothin’.
thirtypundit on July 26, 2008 at 9:15 PM
Exactly. The way I used to explain it is that Israel never really fights ‘wars’, Israel only fights defenses. The enemy population has never really suffered from their country going to war against Israel. And then, when it’s all over, Israel gives back everything they can. I mean, how many times can you give back the Suez Canal without Egypt no longer worrying about losing it? That’s why ‘73 happened after ‘56 and ‘67. (’56 and the Suez is a whole story, itself, but still an example of Egypt losing nothing, in the end)
My view is that in the last Lebanon War, Israel should have TAKEN/annexed a 5 mile strip of Lebanon – never to give it back again. NEVER. That’s the only thing that these countries understand. If Hizbollah was seen to lose Lebanese land because they tried an attack on Israel, you would have seen the shiites ripped to shreds in Lebanon. But, instead, not only did Israel take no land from the last war, but put Shebaa Farms back on the table after they had already signed a border deal that was supposed to have solved the Israel-Lebanon border.
To me the key is that if a country attacks Israel, then Israel must take something significant from that country. But as it is, countries feel as if they can attack Israel, they’ll lose no land (and Israel will give back whatever it wins) and their people will not suffer too much. That’s a recipe for exactly what has been happening, an attack every decade. Eventually, if given chance after chance after chance, Israel will lose one – as ‘73 was just about lost. And the first one Israel loses will be the last one.
My recommendation to Israel, to turn the situation around, is to take the first small, simple step and pull out of the UN. That will probably kill the UN, since that institution seems designed to do nothing but condemn Israel (just look at the percentage of UNSC resolutions directed at Israel!) and it will signal the world that Israel is tired of messing around. Israel wouldn’t be alone in this, either, as Switzerland has refused to participate in the Utopian Nightmare organization. And I guarantee the arabs will take notice. But Israelis are even scared of this move. So, here we are.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Guys, let’s look at the history, I understand your concerns.
Israel’s wars have been with enemies on its borders, we have never had any desire to conquer or hit capitols, the goals were to eliminate the armies and clear them back from our borders as opposed to conquer their countries and effectuate regime change. We sought mass gains for barter in peace trades, not toppling them – please recall the cold war was still going on & these were soviet client states, invading Damascus or Cairo would have spread the conflict to the US & Soviet Union away from regional, toppling any of those regimes would threaten the soviets directly & result in world war in those years.
We did drive to Beirut and put it under siege in the 80’s, and went to the very edge without causing a soviet freak out every time – We stood on the outskirts of Cairo, with the entire Egyptian army burned out behind us. We did the same at Damascus, and we have done the same at Amman. So in actuality we have been poised on every enemy capitol around Israel.. But there was no reason to hit civilians in mass bombing or capitols, none of our border conflicts resulted in our enemies bombing us either then!
The Iranians use it for their deterrent in bluster, but it is a sign of desperation not strength.. It is all they have and they can’t even exercise it properly compared to the return fire, we are in possession of the only nationwide missile shield..
It is important to note that despite the threat voiced of hitting tel aviv in a month long conflict, no long range missiles which Hezbollah had were actually fired at Tel Aviv. Neither Lebanon, nor Tehran wanted anything to do with that, we warned tehran openly in the public that we would hit back not at Hezbollah, but at Iran. It is interesting the missiles never came, Iran told Hezbollah to not fire them.
Yet, we bombed south Beirut with abandon, we dropped ordinance on Beirut for weeks, these were decapitation strikes, they did not kill Nasrallah, but that did not stop us from bombing an Arab capitol again, and then again, and then again.. WHEN they did launch missiles at our population in the north. I think there’s ample precedent for us not doing it when an enemy refrained from the same, and precedent for doing it when they did attack our civilians, and even precedent for the Iranian fear of hitting us when we warned them.
I can only surmise no question Israel will retaliate directly on Tehran if attacked in this manner, Iran knows this reality as much as the Egyptians, Syrians, Jordanians & Lebanese did enough, not too.
saus on July 26, 2008 at 9:40 PM
I will say again, Iran is a paper tiger until they test. They should know by now that if they test, there will be a swift, completely decapacitating blow.
If they launch without testing, and the device fails, Israel will turn Iran into glass.
I believe Israel knows with precision what is real, and what is belicose rhetoric coming from Iran. There is a certain prestige to the attention Iran gets with this silly game, and I believe that’s the game afoot. I think we can relax until they make a move to test, and keep taking the fight to the Taliban – AQ’s first perimeter.
Troops in Iraq. Troops in Afghanistan. Each bordering Iran. What a coincidence.
shaken on July 26, 2008 at 9:40 PM
An interesting note on this that touches a bit on current events – Israeli intelligence in ‘67 was so good that not only did Israel destroy the Egyptian Air Force on the ground, but knew and left all of the decoy planes intact.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Is Bush becoming Chamberlain?
jgapinoy on July 26, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Yes. The problem is that none of the peace deals were ever kept. The Karin A came up the Suez. How effective was the peace treaty with Egypt? In fact, so many weapons came through Sinai that it makes ones head spin. Israel has had a quieter border with Syria than with Egypt. Almost nothing comes across the Syrian border, as I’m sure you’re well aware.
Yes. This was a complicating situation that I should not have glossed over. But it did not stop bombs from dropping, really. The Cold War aspects came more into play in the end game of every war. But it did make each conflict part of something much larger.
Everyone had Beirut under seige in the 80’s. The place was a total mess – and that was before Israel got there!
But they never got attacked and their civilians never worried about them getting attacked, not after the first feint or two.
They certainly tried their hardest. And waiting for your enemy to hit you first is exactly what I’m talking about.
Maybe, maybe not. I don’t think the Iranians are fooling around and I don’t trust Israel’s missile shield, either.
Olmert said lots of things during that war that he never carried out. I don’t know what the calculus was on the Iran/Hezbollah side, but they hit Haifa as much as they could.
But don’t forget that Israel put the whole war on hold for a week to let everyone get to safety before the really intense bombing (which was still pinpoint). That delay in the war was enough to convince Iran, I’m sure, that they could take down Israel if they were prepared from the start. Don’t forget, they were all caught off-guard by Olmert’s reaction of war – which is one of the only times I’ve ever agreed with the retard, Olmert.
But there were no casualties on the Lebanese side, really. Nothing significant, because of what I said above.
I just can’t agree with this. Israel bombed empty buildings. As to Iranian fears, I just doubt they fear Tehran being hit by Israel. I just don’t see it. But, maybe I’m wrong – hopefully.
I have to strongly disagree with you here. I don’t think that Israel is willing to be as ruthless as necessary. When I was in Israel I used to have this argument with my friends all the time. The answer I used to get quite a bit was (from Meretz and Labor folks): “You’re probably right, but I don’t want to be around if we have to do that.”
We have much the same problem in the US. Iran doesn’t fear the US, either. And the people of Iran know that, if the US attacks, we won’t attack them and we’ll give them tons of money and rebuild everything after. That’s why they have no fear of publicly calling for “Death to America” on a weekly basis.
progressoverpeace on July 26, 2008 at 10:16 PM
can only surmise….
saus on July 26,2008 at 9:40PM.
saus: That was very insightful,and thank-you,
and as your a Canadian Israeli,hello to
you in Israel from Canada:)
canopfor on July 26, 2008 at 10:24 PM
One can hope that Ahmedinejad’s blustering is a result of having inhaled too much model airplane glue, but it’s a small hope.
I fear that Ahmedinejad is a megalomaniac and cares not one whit whether or not the Iranian people are bombed into oblivion. He sees himself playing a historical, earth-shaping role, and his puffery serves to stroke his ego and keep the Iranian masses’ focus outward, not inward, where he is an abject failure.
Of course with Iran’s governmental structure, Ahmedinejad is only serving at the mullahs’ whim, so you have to ask what do the mullahs benefit by his posturing and high-stakes nuclear poker gambits?
Is their end game retaining and strengthening their hold on the populace of Iran, or are they pushing for Persian dominance in the Middle East or even the much-bandied Caliphate scenario?
They have positioned themselves well.
hillbillyjim on July 26, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Bad link–one too many (http://). Better
hillbillyjim on July 26, 2008 at 10:51 PM
The eclectic Edward Jay Epstein opines on whether Iran will go nuclear: Link.
His answer: Yes.
It’s a good read and excellent summary on where we are and how we got there.
SteveMG on July 26, 2008 at 11:43 PM
I can empathize with both Saus and progressoverpeace in their differing attitudes, but have to say that, after several wars, Israel’s enemies are still intact, still hate Israel, and will never truly waver from that hatred – regardless of whatever platitudes may come from the mouths of their leaders.
They all believe that Israel should not exist, and many Israelis seem to hold to the view that they would be best served in hanging on to what they were granted, in case it should be taken from them. In other words, I feel that many Israelis do not feel so assured of their place on the map, that they can take action which will end hostilities.
OldEnglish on July 27, 2008 at 1:19 AM
Ahmadinijad is a loon, but he understands Western vulnerabilities, which are not military but political.
He may assess (correctly) that the pre-election Bush administration is paralyzed, and that Israel is not vigilant enough to enact a Second Strike. His saber rattling and photoshopping are test trials to see what will the response be, much like a hyeena testing if it’s wounded prey is weak enough.
If Israel could wipe Natanz by a single AF and special ops operation – it would already be wiped out. A complex operation is most certainly needed, which means an all-out war on multiple fronts – Iran, Iraq, Hizballah and Syria. The stakes are high, the intel is low – and Ahmadi thinks he will be the last to blink.
Aristotle on July 27, 2008 at 1:57 AM
It seems to me that the question for Iran is whether Israel and the West will be hurt more by a nuclear strike, or by toppling another country after WMDs have been squirreled away. The former would involve physical damage, the latter psychic damage. They’re figuring that their bellicosity will result in “we nuke someplace and get UN resolutions” or “we do some saber-rattling, get attacked, the US finds nothing, and the US dissolves into a puddle of self-blame, regret, and apology.”
The best of all worlds would be to change the calculus such that “toppling a bunch of megalomanic terror-supporters” is seen as a good thing for its own sake. We’d have a lot less of this saber-rattling if their options were “we nuke somewhere and get glassed”, “we saber-rattle and get glassed, and the world laughs at us as idiots”, or “we knock it off and act responsibly”. That’s not the way they’re reading it today, however.
cthulhu on July 27, 2008 at 3:04 AM
You mean they didn’t accept Obama’s “diplomacy”?
drjohn on July 27, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Jim, Ahmedinejad is full of crap, but he is only a figurehead for the Imams. Iran is run by the Mullahs in Qom. They are alleged to have no interest in dying, but they have a great history for gasbaggery.
drjohn on July 27, 2008 at 10:00 AM
I am pretty sure that is what I said above:
That’s a pretty good BBC link, if you click on the chart and poke around a little, it is easy to see just how entrenched the Supreme Leader and his mullahs really are.
hillbillyjim on July 27, 2008 at 10:47 AM
What I found curious in his commentary was no speculation about the missile tests…i.e., high alt detonation.
jerrytbg on July 27, 2008 at 1:19 PM
So are these centrifuges mounted in the fake missiles or the fake airplanes?
How long before a photoshop of a Iranian nuclear test blast shows up?
The way we should fight this regime is to fax pictures of Israeli fighters to all of the Iranian military installations at once!!!
landlines on July 27, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Things I wish I had said:
I could not agree more. To me, these two statements describe the problems as simply and directly as possible. Being a lover of parsimony, I am smitten.
progressoverpeace on July 27, 2008 at 1:50 PM
progressoverpeace I had a nice comment discussing your post, but twice comments rejected me, there’s no need to redo this again lol, we disagree more over strategy than substance.
saus on July 27, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Good spin? Drawing a blank, sorry.
Foolish spin? No problem. What is the left currently saying?
aikidoka on July 27, 2008 at 6:38 PM
I never thought we were too far apart. Just differences in how we think arabs/persians perceive certain Israeli actions. I do believe that OldEnglish really nailed a major Israeli feeling. I think it’s even stronger among many American Jews, with respect to Israel. That’s why so many, as far as I can figure it, were supportive of the ridiculous gifting of Gaza to the Pals without demanding anything in return.
progressoverpeace on July 27, 2008 at 8:00 PM
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