LA Times poll: Obama 49, McCain 37
posted at 6:07 pm on June 24, 2008 by Allahpundit
Gallup has it 46/43 today and Rasmussen has it 46/40, and we’ve got the same lopsided sample here that we had in that 15-point Newsweek spread last week — 39/22/27 among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, respectively. Even so, the LAT’s sample was random, and even Gallup concedes that Dems now lead the GOP 50/36 in party identification. We keep dismissing these polls where the leftist contingent vastly outnumbers the right, but, er, should we? Electoral reality is what it is these days, after all.
Here are the crosstabs. The good news for Maverick: A la last week’s Fox News poll, he still does well with independents on various issues — but not, notably, on the economy, where he trails Obama among indies by nine points and by 21 points overall. And then there’s this. Top is Obama’s enthusiasm metric, bottom is McCain’s:
That’s in line with what we’ve seen elsewhere. And if you don’t think it matters, compare the data in questions 3 and 4, in a two-man race versus a race with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. Obama loses three points among independents in a four-man contest while McCain loses eight.
Blowback
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You make valid points, and I agree. Except I believe Hillary, who may have gotten smarter over the years, would still have run her presidency on polls. The Clinton’s are both obsessed with being “loved”.
I still don’t think the economy is in as bad a shape as some make it out to be. But I do think it’s at some kind of tipping point, where it will either fall to prosperity or maybe recession. Gas prices ain’t helping, for sure. But I think the Dems will pass much legislation because of gas prices. Of course, it will only make things worse.
I just refuse to let the Dems control Washington simply to watch them fail. Because if they fail, we all fail.
JetBoy on June 24, 2008 at 8:17 PM
So 49% of female McCain voters are enthusiastic, and 41% of male McCain voters are enthusiastic?
That settles it: McCain’s a liberal.
misterpeasea on June 24, 2008 at 8:27 PM
I wasn’t implying you were being blindly optimistic. I was just commenting on where my optimism was coming from…
TheBigOldDog on June 24, 2008 at 8:54 PM
If Obama wins, we are so screwed. I’m racing to pay off my debts by Jan 2009 because if God forbid the Obamanation should win… man I can’t even complete the thought.
I’m also planning to move to a red state with no income tax, and have decided not to purchase any land or house either. I’ll be debt free and in a good position to withstand the imminent horrors we’ll be facing, so if this HAS to happen, it may as well happen now. I guess it pays to be single sometimes.
Let’s not forget the only thing that spared us from utter chaos when Clinton was President was because a Republican Congress quickly came to power and kept him in check for the rest of his two terms. People here assume we’ll see a repeat of that should the Obamanation sit in the White House, but there’s a reason why assume starts with A-S-S. :-P
Lincoln on June 24, 2008 at 9:01 PM
What they really need is a poll showing how much anyone with more common sense than God gave geese trusts polls…
An approval rating for the pollsters…I know my confidence is right around zero…less than zero…
I have a higher approval rating for Howard Dean than any(right..left..don’t matter)of these bent, crooked pricks. They, apparently, rely on their results to bolster their credibility…Which for the last 10 years don’t mean a whole hell of a lot…And what’s more pathetic is that 5 months from the election, they all know their skewed, Bull***t numbers will be remembered by no one… And even if they are…how do you call them on it??
Pure DogS**T!!
BigWyo on June 24, 2008 at 9:03 PM
I have not read all th comments, but the fact that no one seems to be getting over 50% is interesting. I think the seperation here is too great. Republicans and Republican leaning Independents may not number as many as before, but the difference is not as large as in these polls. And I don’t think that 50% are Democrat anyway, if they were Obama would be getting over 50%. I think that the real numbers are probably more like 38 D, 30R, 32 In.
But who knows? The mistakes that Obama has been making the last few days have not really hit the polls yet either. We will know more as time passes.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:16 PM
As I’ve stated before McCains going to lose because he’s a lousy candidate.I know many folks including myself who will vote down ballot but will never cast a vote for this open border amnesty peddler.
PTN 39 on June 24, 2008 at 9:18 PM
misterpeasea:
Why does that make McCain a liberal? I am a woman and I don’t want Obama to be president, ergo I am excited about voting for McCain. On the other hand there all these supposed conservatives out there who really don’t seem to mind the idea of a liberal president with a super majority of Democrats in the Congress. So it seems to me that it might be the guys who are the liberals. closet liberals maybe, but liberals nonetheless.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:20 PM
PTN:
That is so stupid. Fine, so let a real open border president win. It is called biting off your nose to spite your face and it is silly. For years all these hardliners were more than willing to ignore the problem of illegal immigration and now they are beating that dead horse to death. if they bail when we are facing this kind of a candidate, then I really do not care about them or their issues anymore. Screw em, as Daily Kos would say. After all, you are doing his bidding.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:24 PM
That is the problem with guys like PTM, they want everybody else to back them up, but they won’t return the favor. No, it is their way or the highway. They are turning that big tent Republican party into a pup tent and there goes the majority. With friends like that the GOP does not need enemies.
But no doubt, it the GOP’s fault, right? In my district John Hostettler who had been a Republican Congressman longer than Bush had been president decided to go all hardliner in 2006 and got his ass handed to him by a Blue Dog Democrat. So much for using anti amnesty rhetoric as your entire campaign issue. This is a general election and considering the fact that millions of people are ready to vote for a liberal Democrat who wants to give drivers licenses to illegals it is insane to use amnesty or some other bogus nonsense as an excuse to sit back the let Obama win. just pure nuts.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:30 PM
What is actually very odd is that these polls are actually outside the statistical margins of error of the other polls.
Gallup has a 3-point lead, Rasmussen has 6-point. Newsweek had 15, and LA Times has 12. The margin of error for these polls is usually 3 points. The Newsweek and LA Times are over twice the margin of error away from the other polls.
Statistically speaking, that is crazy. Their samples are whacked out.
Seixon on June 24, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Seixon:
Yes, they are. We saw the same thing in some of the primary races as well.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Exactly. The L.A. Times has been whacked out for a long time. That’s one reason why their circulation is on the canvas, looking up at the ten count!
byteshredder on June 24, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Just for fun I looked at the electoral map and the state polls. If McCain simply wins the same toss-up states Bush did (with the rest going to Obama) he’d win with 279 electoral votes. Obama is ahead in the electoral count because the states that lean left offer a combined electoral count virtually twice that of McCain (147 to McCain’s 70). To put this in perspective, Bush only won one of these same left leaning states (Iowa) and he still won the election.
This election is going to be decided by the Midwestern swing states (east of the Mississippi River.) Our fate is in their hands.
Lincoln on June 24, 2008 at 9:45 PM
I think a lot of it is psychological. After all Obama needs money and people are more likely to give money to someone they think will win. So his friends in the media, are doing what they can to keep his momentum going.
Terrye on June 24, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Because women are more liberal than men. If women couldn’t vote, Democrats wouldn’t get elected. The start of the massive growth of the federal gummint coincided with the grant of women’s suffrage.
And note, Terrye, that those figures are among McCain voters. Those men are voting for McCain, but they aren’t enthusiastic about voting for a liberal.
Or, you’re right, and men want a liberal President with a supermajority of Democrats in Congress.
Either one.
Now, get back to telling us about how popular amnesty is.
misterpeasea on June 24, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Hey. As long as people have their cable, cell phone / ipod and internet access, who cares?
Then again, it might be fun to watch a hefty percent of Hussein voters have to give up their cable, cell phone / ipod and internet access when they lose their jobs due to Hopey Hopey Changey Changey Carter Era economic policies.
BowHuntingTexas on June 24, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Hmmm, and why were those special elections happening this year, again?
Someone get cancer? Fall down stairs? Have a stroke? Oh wait, no—-there were scandals involved in most of them!
Sekhmet on June 25, 2008 at 12:00 AM
Polls are worth pesos. Let us see after Nov five.
carbon_footprint on June 25, 2008 at 1:59 AM
misterpeasea:
Well, then let’s just take the vote away from women. The bedroom and the kitchen, that is where we belong. And btw, the last time I looked, Obama is a man. He is not a woman and he is a lot more liberal than I am. I would say that if the real true blue conservatives keep purging the party of apostates, {women among them} they will have their membership down to the single digits.
Terrye on June 25, 2008 at 7:11 AM
And I never said amnesty was popular, I just made note of the obvious fact that Tancredo was not popular.
Terrye on June 25, 2008 at 7:13 AM
In fact the whole purge the party and stab the president in the back and abandon the nominee if he does not kiss our ass attitude of the self anointed base has backfired big time. But then I am not sure they are the base. Not really.
Terrye on June 25, 2008 at 7:16 AM
And if most people agree with the hardliners on immigration, why is a softie on immigration like Obama in the lead at all? It does not seem that most people think the whole issue is that big a deal in terms of the general election.
Terrye on June 25, 2008 at 7:18 AM
Not a bad idea. Especially women who don’t know what they’re talking about.
Don’t see where you mentioned Tanc, but I did see this:
Terrye. You DO know that the Dem who defeated Hostettler ran to his RIGHT on illegal immigration, don’t you? And if amnesty isn’t popular, how is it “insane to use amnesty or some other bogus nonsense”? And what, pray tell, is your point about “a softie on immigration like Obama in the lead”?
Go fix me turkey pot pie.
misterpeasea on June 25, 2008 at 9:39 AM
Write this down: Unless there is a 3rd party candidate that will pull heavily from McCain, Senator Obama will lose 50 of 50 (or 57 of 57???)
CC
CapedConservative on June 25, 2008 at 10:52 AM
JetBoy
There is no legal or Constitutional basis for saying that abortion and gay marriage are for the courts to decide. I’ve mentioned before how the typical HA commenter seems to be a pro-war liberal, and this is more of the same. You seem to have bought into the fundamental idea of modern liberalism – that representative self-government is an evil to be stamped out.
Abortion and gay marriage of no busness of our courts.
As for Alito and Roberts, it most certainly was McCain and the “gang of 14″ who was instrumental in getting them both confirmed. Of that, I am convinced.
You may be “convinced” but you still don’t know what you are talking about. The GOP had the votes to put anyone that wanted on the Supreme Court. That could have renominated Bork if they wantd to. The “gang” had nothing to do with Alito and Roberts being conformed. Each won passage in the Senate with more than 60 votes. More importantly, each won passage with more than 50 votes, which is the proper standard.
flenser on June 25, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Wait a second. Abortion and gay marriage ARE for the courts to decide. They’re for the courts to decide that the Constitution is silent about abortion and gay marriage.
So they’ve probably gotten excommunicated from the liberals a la Joe Lieberman, and have ended up here.
Another sign that the schools and the media continue to exert enormous influence. I think the schools are worse; the media is liberal, but the schools are liberal and keep people ignorant.
When John McCain is considered a conservative, the liberals are winning.
misterpeasea on June 25, 2008 at 4:54 PM
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