Tsvangirai withdraws after violence escalates

It looks like Robert Mugabe won’t have to worry about rigging the run-off election after all.  After a crescendo of violence in Zimbabwe that culminated in “thousands” of pro-Mugabe militia members attacking an MDC rally today, Morgan Tsvangirai will withdraw from the June 27th election.  He will announce later today that the contest was useless anyway and that he wants to end the violence:

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was preparing to announce he was pulling out of a run-off presidential election, a source in his party said on Sunday, after President Robert Mugabe’s supporters attacked his rally.

The source in the opposition Movement for Democratic Change said Tsvangirai would cite violence and strong-arm tactics by Mugabe’s pro-security forces and militia for his decision to withdraw from the June 27 vote.

“A decision has been taken that it is not worth our while to go into the election because of the violence and because (the ruling) ZANU-PF has decided on the outcome already,” the MDC source said on condition of anonymity.

The MDC estimates that at least 70 of its activists have been murdered in the period between the last election and now, mostly in the last three or four weeks.  Supporters have been driven out of their homes by the thousands, and Mugabe’s forces have begun raping female MDC supporters in a campaign of intimidation.   Two spouses of MDC officials have been burned to death, along with at least one child.

Last week, Mugabe insisted that he would not turn power over to Tsvangirai regardless of the results of the election.  The Zimbabwe military has made it clear they support that decision.  Under those circumstances, it makes little sense for Tsvangirai to continue in a process that would allow Mugabe to manipulate a vote to bolster his own credibility, especially when the military has itself embarked on a campaign of terror against Zimbabweans to ensure Mugabe’s victory through intimidation.

In the short term, this leaves the field clear for Mugabe, but at a high cost.  The scales have begun to fall from the eyes of his neighbors, who announced a few days ago that conducting an election under these circumstances would be a travesty.   The economy, already at the point of collapse, will now be burdened with thousands of more homeless people, while foreign nations will be even less likely to provide assistance to Mugabe.

Tsvangirai’s withdrawal may wind up having more resonance than his opposition.  It is a form of non-violent protest meant to expose tyranny.  The question will be whether the world will respond, especially Tsvangirai’s fellow Africans, to what Tsvangirai has exposed.  So far, the world has not shown the slightest inclination to do so.

Update: One commenter asks whether this means we should “bomb bomb Harare” to intervene.   There are intermediate steps that can take place before bombing.  The UN and the SADC could take the following actions:

• Charge Mugabe and his military commanders with crimes against humanity
• Seize all assets held abroad by Mugabe and his advisers
• List Zimbabwe’s military and militias as terrorist organizations
• Refuse to offer diplomatic status to Zimbabwean officials traveling abroad
• Close the borders to all shipments going into Zimbabwe — a complete embargo

The first would not do much, but the rest of these would cripple Mugabe.  Unfortunately, no multilateral organization has even begun to consider these steps or anything close to them.

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