Fox News poll: 42% of Dems “very satisfied” with nominee versus … 12% of Republicans

posted at 5:53 pm on June 19, 2008 by Allahpundit

Another month of mumbling about comprehensive immigration reform and how “pristine” ANWR is, and who knows? He might make it down to single digits.

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The data’s not all bad. His small lead from two months ago is gone but that’s mostly due to Hillary Democrats coming home. He does amazingly well with independents throughout, beating Obama among that group on Iraq, terrorism, the economy(!), and illegal immigration(!!). He trails only on health care, and only there by four points. Which is to say, he’ll hold his own in the center; his problem is that as of right now only 10% of Dems are McCainocrats while 11% of Repubs are Obamicans (in a two-man race), and that includes 17% of Hillary supporters who still say they’re voting for McCain even though most of them probably won’t. He needs to improve on that, as he already leads by eight among indies (again, in a two-man race) which surely must be near his ceiling. The fine, fine line for Maverick is thus the same here as it’s been all along: How does he hold the GOP base while pandering just enough to the left to pull some of those centrist Democrats over? Maybe by talking about … comprehensive immigration reform and how “pristine” ANWR is?

Big advantages among independents here, too, and I’m guessing they’re related:

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It’s hard to imagine those numbers tilting much further in his favor but easy to imagine them tilting back towards equilibrium, especially with St. Barack ready to burn a few hundred mil on ads like that one today.

One more piece of data for you, this time from Rasmussen. Exit question: How likely is it really that Obama’s going to pile up the popular vote but lose a squeaker in the electoral college? Read this piece from TNR before you answer, as it argues that the circumstances of that scenario — racking up huge blue state wins and just enough narrow red state losses — are very hard to imagine if the “nationalization” of voter preferences from the 2004 election holds true this time. I’m not so sure they will given Obama’s ability to draw out certain southern demographics this time in greater numbers than Kerry could (namely, blacks and evangelicals) coupled with McCain’s inability to draw out the southern base.


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And if the worse thing you can say about McCain is that he said oil company profits have been obscene, then that is pretty damn thin. I don’t doubt that 80% of the people in the country would agree right now.

Terrye on June 19, 2008 at 11:26 PM

His problem is that he never closed the deal with his own base…the don’t trust him. It’s not that a bunch of conservatives are going to suddenly vote for Obama…his problem is that instead of going into the general with an enthusiastic, trusting base…he’s going into the general with a demoralized and increasing less trusting base (which he is to blame for) that won’t give him any wiggle room in the general when he says more and more things that sound like they came out of the mouth of a Democrat..they really don’t know what he really believes in and where is lines in the sand are…and that will cost him the election…I know a lot of conservatives who will probably sit this one out…not because they want Barry to win, but because McCain has given them no reason to even get off of the couch and vote for him…he has never asked for their vote or tried to woo them in any way…only his presumption that they will vote for him on the vague insinuation that he’s better than Barry…so he, in the general, with no solid base, all his is doing now is digging a very deep hole for himself.

AUINSC on June 19, 2008 at 11:28 PM

However, McCain is a lot further to the right than Obama is.

Yeah, and you can spit-shine a turd until the sun goes down, but in the light of dawn, it’s still a turd.

McCain stinks.

realitycheck on June 19, 2008 at 11:31 PM

I have said it before, and I’ll say it again:

Run. Against. The. Media.

The most hated institution in the US, and the one most committed to imposing liberalism on us. Unfortunately also the one The Maverick loves to snuggle up with.

drunyan8315 on June 19, 2008 at 11:33 PM

And if the worse thing you can say about McCain is that he said oil company profits have been obscene, then that is pretty damn thin. I don’t doubt that 80% of the people in the country would agree right now.

Terrye on June 19, 2008 at 11:26 PM

First of all, since when does anyone in favor of a free market economy set limits on profits?

Secondly, I don’t care if 80% of the people in the country believe that, because it’s not true. The profit margin of the oil industry is roughly ten percent, which is average. If you only pay attention to amounts without taking revenues and costs into account, then you deserve a president as ignorant about economics and as socialist about profits as you are.

MadisonConservative on June 19, 2008 at 11:36 PM

After Mccain picks Mike Huckabee as his VP, all the dissatisfied rep’s and indy’s will come running back to him.

SaintOlaf on June 19, 2008 at 11:37 PM

SaintOlaf on June 19, 2008 at 11:37 PM

that would push me away even more.

BHO is evil. Down to the core. there is no other word for him. McCain he is an idiot. So my choice is vote for evil or vote for an idiot. Gee what to do.

unseen on June 19, 2008 at 11:51 PM

Well, the truth is…he’s fighting an uphill battle just on the PR/Image thing, what with MSM in complete love with Barry, he’s got to win on the issues. Thus far, the only thing he’s been right and steadfast on is Iraq, and as other columns on this site have pointed out, that may actually be diminishing just because it has succeeded so well…if he really does come across as a true reformer (something he has never been) and can put forth concrete proposals to clean up congressional pork (other than McCain-Feingold, which was a complete anti-first amendment, feel-good, ineffective democrat approach) and come out for fiscal conservatism with specific programs that he will wipe out (including serious business and personal tax cuts), a very strong second-amendment stance, a very strong small-government approach, then he could get the base fired up…but he would have to make some very hard promises here and continually stick by them with every public utterance he makes…oh, and he really needs to lose the entire ANWAR and amnesty issues fast…those are killing him…we all the know Democrats support those and they aren’t voting for him, so it’s a double loser for him…only costs him votes among his own base.

AUINSC on June 19, 2008 at 11:51 PM

Uh, Oh! Hey, Johnny, how’s that Maverick thing working out for you these days? We conservatives all know you hate our guts and we in turn plan to neither support nor vote for you so I guess you will need to win a big chunk of the Independent vote? Better go to work! I’d call the NY Times and Chris Mathews to get your agenda and talking points. Then go out and rail against all things conservative, big business and please, please, please talk about Global Warming and a Path to Citizenship some more! This should help you greatly!

sabbott on June 20, 2008 at 5:58 AM

The only thing I feel guilty about so far is wasting my vote with “Operation Chaos”. I live in Indiana and Hillary won with about a 7% boost due to OC. If I had known anyone other than Juan McCain was still on the republican ballot, I would have voted in the republican primary.At least then I would have had a chance to vote for SOMEONE I actually could support. No chance of that now. McCain only got about 80% of the republican vote in Indiana. I would have liked to see that under 50%.

darwin-t on June 20, 2008 at 7:12 AM

After If Mccain picks Mike Huckabee as his VP, all the dissatisfied rep’s and indy’s HuckaHicks will come running back to him, all of the conservatives will go fishing in November, and he’ll lose 48 states.

SaintOlaf on June 19, 2008 at 11:37 PM

Fixed.

(I thought you banned this fuc*ing idiot, Allah?)

Jaibones on June 20, 2008 at 10:16 AM

Face reality. It’s the end of the world as we know it.

Skipper50 on June 20, 2008 at 10:26 AM

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