Hope for no Change: Where’s Obama’s bounce?
posted at 2:59 pm on June 17, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Stacy McCain hears a thud in the latest Gallup poll but he doesn’t know the half of it.
Today’s ABC News/Washington Post survey of adults, which was taken 6/12-15, shows Obama leading McCain 48-42% — down from Obama’s 7% lead one month ago. Meanwhile, a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll of RVs, also taken 6/12-15, shows Obama leading McCain 44-40%. Similarly, the latest Gallup tracking poll, which queried RVs between 6/13-15, shows Obama with a 4% lead, 46-42%.
A fourth poll of the battlegrounds commissioned by NARAL shows Maverick down just two points. What gives? Obama claims it’s due to McCain having been given a free ride by the media while he was finishing off Hillary but Jonathan Martin swats that aside. I wonder if the answer doesn’t lie in this detail:
Obama still has some work to do to unite the Democratic Party. Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.
There are many more Democrats than Republicans right now and more of them have yet to come home to Barry O. Once they do, he’ll presumably bump up to a double-digit lead. Is that the answer? Or is Hopenchange simply not quite the juggernaut among the public that it is at, say, MSNBC? I want to believe the public’s made a considered judgment and found, like Karl, that “Obama’s record, judgment and message are at best entirely undistinguished in the field of presidential politics,” but I actually believe they’re simply not paying much attention yet.
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Obama is the most unqualified Presidential candidate in the history of the United States.
That’s sort of a first too, right?
drjohn on June 17, 2008 at 3:02 PM
I want to believe…
Beo on June 17, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Just MSNBC?
‘Mon, AP, you’ve been weeping and wailing and gnashing your teeth over this empty suit forever.
He ain’t never gonna close this sale. Hell, add in the Obama-polls-better-then-he-performs factor and he’s probably not even close.
Typhoon on June 17, 2008 at 3:06 PM
You’re right, and I think that is what is so appealing to liberals. Anything that would make someone well qualified to lead America is pretty much anathema to their value system.
Grafted on June 17, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Can you think of anything that you would pay Hussein to do for you, besides maybe fix a ticket?
Akzed on June 17, 2008 at 3:07 PM
You’re probably right that the public’s not really paying much attention yet. Most voters won’t start paying attention for a while yet. Hopefully, when they do, they’ll realize that we can’t entrust this country’s future to a naive and foolish Marxist like Obama.
AZCoyote on June 17, 2008 at 3:07 PM
My God in heaven…this clown might actually become president. WTF has happened to my country. B. Hussien is by far the worst presidential candidate in the history of the U.S.
We MUST defeat him in Nov.!!!!!!!!
Winebabe on June 17, 2008 at 3:08 PM
I wonder if those numbers reflect any response from Hillary supporters to Obama’s “in your face” selection of Patti Solis Doyle as his VP chief of staff. That’s gotta singe ‘em a bit.
a capella on June 17, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Except the explanation for the traditional bounce is that respondents who haven’t been paying enough attention to have formed firm opinions are more susceptible to the sudden revelation of the glorious sparkling new nominee. By the same token, the conventional explanation for the dead-catness of the bounce is that everyone had already assumed Hillary was toast, so it wasn’t news.
CK MacLeod on June 17, 2008 at 3:10 PM
The fact remains that a majority of Americans are now Socialists and Communists. The Socialist and Communist movement - begun in the Sixties - has resulted in the elimination of God from the public forum, the destruction of the family and the takeover of the public schools. It has created Statists who seek to serve, and be served by, the State.
In the end, the Clintonistas will back Obama, because that’s what apparatchiks do.
OhEssYouCowboys on June 17, 2008 at 3:11 PM
Hard to believe, but he is even more unqualified than president bush was….I simply cannot think of a single reason to vote for obama…no way to trust him, and I know socialism is definitely not what a free country needs. im starting to get angry now
SoCalInfidel on June 17, 2008 at 3:12 PM
There is a ceiling that every politican hits that is the highest they can go.
I dont think Obama has ever been higher than 55% in any matchup he has been in. Meaning when matched against any other candidate (not asked is this a good guy type of question) he never does all that well.
If Obama is maxing out this low there is little hope for him. McCain can push his numbers up but it seems Obama CANT unless he changes his message. And the moment he does Obama stops being the candidate of hope and change.
BTW I love the MSM for pushing “The world loves Obama” as a sort of election goal of the US public. We dont elect presidents to make us popular with the world. Leadership isnt about popularity contests.
William Amos on June 17, 2008 at 3:12 PM
Agreed
SoCalInfidel on June 17, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Tell that to Trotsky.
Akzed on June 17, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Obama should be killing him right now. And we havent even seen the circus that will be the DNC, assuming they can pay for it. Fortunately the RNC is after.
Chuck Schick on June 17, 2008 at 3:14 PM
If most of the voting public was as sick and tired of this ‘forever’ campagine we have had as I am, I would not give an honest answer to a poll question if they ever called me. Let them guess and I will vote in November.
L
letget on June 17, 2008 at 3:15 PM
Since there isn’t much of a record, American is finally getting to know the real Barack Obama.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on June 17, 2008 at 3:15 PM
McCain’s a bit of an enigma to me. He seems principled, not an opportunist, yet he changes his positions a lot. I have no idea if Obama is principled or not. I tend to think Obama is in way over his head so that whatever he intends to do will only very vaguely relate to what gets done in his administration. He has very little experience operating the levers of power. His statements on Wright and his church and race are clearly weasely, but that doesn’t tell me anything about how he’ll govern. How he’ll govern, that’s a total question mark to me. But he sure has a nice smile and way about him.
Paul-Cincy on June 17, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Obama’s already got all the zealots on the left sewn up — The majority of Hillary supporters are not going to turn into fanatics, after the bitter campaign battle.
He could win them over in the same grudging way McCain may win over the bulk of the right, under the idea that electing a candidate who shares some of your beliefs is better than letting one get elected who shares almost none at all. But since Democrats wear their emotions so much more on their sleeve, and the far left of the party has gotten into the habit of demonizing all who don’t agree with them, it’s going to take a lot of self-control by the Obama people not to keep poking the Clinton supporters in the eye at the same time they’re trying to get them to support the party’s nominee.
jon1979 on June 17, 2008 at 3:16 PM
I don’t think independents are going to like the Chicago mob candidate.
I don’t think anyone over 50 is going to like Obama saying McCain is “liable to break a hip”, is “confused”, etc.
I don’t think the bitter people are going to like him at all. The race baiting will backfire.
faraway on June 17, 2008 at 3:16 PM
I had to look this up
Obama is viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%. The numbers for McCain are 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 20% Very Unfavorable
William Amos on June 17, 2008 at 3:16 PM
I think what that favorible/unfavorible shows is that Obama is a much more polarizing figure. People either love him or hate him is little middle ground.
William Amos on June 17, 2008 at 3:17 PM
I think McCain has a chance. I live in a rural area, not far from the Peoples Republic of Bloomington, home of Indiana University. I know a lot of local Democrats who will either vote McCain or sit it out. They can not bring themselves to vote for Obama. And it is not as simple as racism either, they don’t trust the man. The name, the empty past, the strange friends, all of it just turns these rural voters off. But there is always Gary, In. That is a lot of votes.
Terrye on June 17, 2008 at 3:18 PM
I think Clinton must root for McCain as he will be a one term President. That opens the door for Hillary in 2112. If Obama is elected, he will be a one term President also, but Republicans could run a Bush and beat him after America gets a look at what he has done.
Zelsdorf Ragshaft on June 17, 2008 at 3:19 PM
He’s the quintessential manchurian candidate.
His faux gravitas and insufferable arrogance is a winning combination with the ignorant, misguided masses. Rush was going on again today about how he is an empty vessel being “packaged” to provide positions of power to all the old usual suspects. Its probably the simplist assessment of the whole unholy mess(iah) to date.
singlemalt_18 on June 17, 2008 at 3:21 PM
I think it is gasoline. With BHO saying no to drilling, with him be HAPPY that gas is at $4.00/gal just a little upset that it got there this quick. I think most people are starting to have second thoughts. Gas hits everyone. The poor the most. He is hitting his base with higher taxes. It will get worse. McCain made a good start today. He has set himself up to continue to change his position as prices goes up. Land based drilling is next, then oil shales, then He will support ANWR on national security grounds. BHO will be left flat footed.
what’s 150billion over 10 years?
We spend $100b a year in Iraq. BHO want only $15b/year for energy. that’s nothing. He knows nothing.
unseen on June 17, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Why do you say with such certainty that both Obama and McCain won’t have a second term, Zelsdorf Ragshaft ?
wise_man on June 17, 2008 at 3:22 PM
I’m not sure that is entirely the answer,..in fact I suspect most of Obama’s supporters aren’t hard core socialists, but rather glassy eyed hero worshipers. Sure, he has his Marxist support but most of his supporters remind me more of Beatles groupies. They have no idea what he stands for and would rather become activists for the cause than find out more about his background or dissect his speeches for details. They are dangerous, not so much because of their sinister scheming but because they are lemmings, and ultra committed ones at that.
a capella on June 17, 2008 at 3:23 PM
Maybe that is why the McCain camp has invited Hillary and her supporters over for tea.
AnthonyK on June 17, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I think of Obama as the Great Impersonator.
Wherever he goes, he impersonates someone who would speak to that audience. He mimics what they want to hear. Of course, he doesn’t believe a word of what he is saying.
Name another political candidate anywhere in the world that disowned his own church purely for political gain.
faraway on June 17, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I happen one of the “nearly a quarter” of Hillary supporters that won’t support Obama. The only way I can support him is if Hillary is on the ticket. Believe it or not, the way the Liberal Elite treated Hillary was pretty disgusting. An Obama/Hillary ticket would be the only way to bridge the divide. If he doesn’t, well, it’s McCain ‘08 - it’ll be the first time I vote for any Republican.
jtorres138 on June 17, 2008 at 3:34 PM
McCain can push his numbers up, if he gets off his duff and starts a campaign…otherwise, he’s toast. It became clear in January that the 2008 election is not going to be about principles so much as it will be about style and media savvy. I’m still hopeful that McCain is working a strategy that will pick up with gusto after the RNC in September, but I’m not comfortable with how quiet he is lately. We’ll see.
steadyrock on June 17, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Kind of like Hillary when she speaks to southern crowds :)
SoCalInfidel on June 17, 2008 at 3:36 PM
I believe Obama is now polling worse against McCain than Kerry was at this time against Bush. Since most major polling firms tend to skew their sample left, it probably means McCain is ahead by a few.
crosspatch on June 17, 2008 at 3:37 PM
I also seem to remember that Kerry was polling ahead of Bush right up to election day … when he lost.
crosspatch on June 17, 2008 at 3:38 PM
I’ll tell it to Kamanev [who was married to Trotsky's sister] and to Zinoviev, both of whom were former Trotskyites, who subsequently denounced Trotsky, sided with Stalin, sided - once again - with Trotsky and then sided - once again - with Stalin, and were then purged.
Moreover, the term “apparatchik,” by definition, doesn’t refer to Party leaders, but to the administrative Party apparat, functionaries and underlings, who form the useful idiots of the Socialist and Communist movements. Thus, my reference to the American cattle, who will side with any Socialist or Communist who takes the Democratic nomination.
OhEssYouCowboys on June 17, 2008 at 3:38 PM
That’s a HUGE unfavorable number for Obama, considering the adoration of him in the media and the buzz surrounding him clinching the nomination. I suspect it will only go higher as he gets more exposure and his advisors continue to do stupid things like refer to Winnie the Pooh as a guide for U.S. foreign policy.
rockmom on June 17, 2008 at 3:38 PM
So true, W.A. The fact that people such as Hamas leaders, Hugo Chavez, and Fidel Castro want Obama elected president speaks volumes about what an Obama presidency would mean for this country. Add in Obama’s popularity among a lot of whiny Europeans who would love to see a weaker U.S., and I don’t need any other reasons to vote for McCain.
AZCoyote on June 17, 2008 at 3:40 PM
faraway: I can name a candidate who disowned his church for political gain: Howard Dean.
Vanceone on June 17, 2008 at 3:41 PM
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
D2Boston on June 17, 2008 at 3:41 PM
Evan Thomas at Newsweek calls Obama’s campaign full of it in not so many words.. A Disconnect: What Obama promises. How Washington really works
saus on June 17, 2008 at 3:47 PM
For all his faults, McCain is eminently qualified to be commander-in-chief… in stark contrast to Obama. Surely, more and more Americans will see this before 11/4.
Only Obama would have the arrogance to lecture McCain on military and international affairs. A lot has been made of Obama’s consistent opposition to the war. So what? My mother-in-law opposed it too, and she’s the dumbest woman I’ve ever met.
infidel65 on June 17, 2008 at 3:48 PM
Obama’s big surprise package we’ll be delivered on election day. That’s when the his masses of hyped-up college students, who drooled over him at his campaign rallies, won’t bother to show up at the voting booths.
fogw on June 17, 2008 at 3:49 PM
He wont get the bounce because its not there. He is NOT going to win and that is the bottom line.
Hope and Change are 4 and 5 letter words but so are Doom and Gloom, the later being what he will bring.
TroubledMonkey on June 17, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Where do you live? I live in Pennsylvania and McCain is already running TV ads here, has opened a local campaign office, and has had one town hall already and another one on June 30 which I am attending. I’ve never seen a Republican campaign doing this much in June. I’ve received three invitations to fundraisers and to a Women for McCain event in New York City. And I haven’t even donated, just registered on the website for the townhall meeting.
He has a fairly brilliant media operation. Last week as I was watching Barbara Boxer trashing him on CNN on “women’s issues” (i.e. abortion), Wolf Blitzer came on and read a response that McCain’s campaign had faxed to him before Boxer was even finished talking. I have been listening to the campaign’s conference calls on XM’s POTUS ‘08 channel and they are also quite impressive. They have jumped on every gaffe made by Obama so far.
You guys should actually hear Carly Fiorina and Douglas Holtz-Eakin talking on these media conference calls. They are more impressive than anyone I have heard wth Obama’s campaign. Yesterday they just took Obama apart on free trade, Iraq, and tax policy, even in some hostile questioning from some of the more liberal reporters. Does that translate into votes? Maybe not directly, but I have to think they are slowly tarnishing the halo the media have put on Obama and that may help get more fair coverage in the fall campaign when people really start to pay attention.
I hear these sorts of complaints all the time from Republicans that “our guy isn’t campaigning hard enough.” If McCain loses this election it is not going to be because he didn’t campaign hard enough, it’s going to be because of George W. Bush.
rockmom on June 17, 2008 at 3:51 PM
He’s like Jimmy Carter without the Annapolis experience.
Nosferightu on June 17, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Latest SurveyUSA has Obama only up 1 in Minnesota, 47 to 46. The poll was of 543 likely voters, with an MOE of +/- 4%. Previous polls have had him up double digits. Yow.
Missy on June 17, 2008 at 4:03 PM
In the RCP averages Obama is 4 points ahead of McCain.
This is good news for Republicans?
What will it be on election night/morning after?
Good news: Obama’s expected landslide didn’t materialize as he only beat McCain by a few percentage points and Democrats only picked up 4 senate seats?
MB4 on June 17, 2008 at 4:05 PM
I’m a Republican but I sure do believe it. The Liberal Elite’s treatment of Hillary was vile and difficult to watch and her treatment by the “netroots” was even worse. I thought Hillary handled it with considerable grace though. I regarded her with considerable respect by the end of the campaign.
Welcome to the McCain camp. Those of us who support him are glad to have you.
Gilda on June 17, 2008 at 4:06 PM
Apologies if you’ve heard this one:
I like this analogy of Obama being a Post Turtle:
While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75 year old Texas rancher, whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Obama and his bid to be our President.
The old rancher said, ‘Well, ya know, Obama is a post turtle’. Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a ‘post turtle’ was. The old rancher said, ”When you’re driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that’s a ‘post turtle’.”
The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued to explain. ”You know he didn’t get up there by himself, he doesn’t belong up there, he doesn’t know what to do while he is up there, and you just wonder what kind of a dumb ass put him up there.”
Rovin on June 17, 2008 at 4:13 PM
That would be my guess also, though this was a pretty high profile Democratic campaign. O! hasn’t clinched it with Dems, but still has time to demonize Maverick as McSame.
Karl on June 17, 2008 at 4:14 PM
How dare His Emptysuitedness claim that anyone got a free ride from the press. The press has built this guy from complete obscurity. If the Republicans had a strong campaigner, this clown would be back begging Rev Wright for his forgiveness by now.
oakpack on June 17, 2008 at 4:18 PM
How about McCain wins by 2% despite losing by 4% in exit polls due to … wait for it … RACISM.
phronesis on June 17, 2008 at 4:18 PM
Ahh, the highly coveted “stoned slacker vote.” I doubt that they will put down the bong and vote for Obama in much numbers. Just ask John Kerry.
wise_man on June 17, 2008 at 4:20 PM
That’s great to hear. I live in Southern California, which we all know is a foregone conclusion for the Obamacrats. I don’t expect much local action here, but what I have seen in the national stage (MSM/Hotair/Drudge/Rush/Michelle/Etc.) is that Obama’s facetime trumps McCain’s. Great news about the activity you’re seeing though, I just hope it spreads.
steadyrock on June 17, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Your opinion, or the opposition’s that McCain is Bush III?
JiangxiDad on June 17, 2008 at 5:28 PM
You are right AP in that the middle isn’t paying much attention right now and that is nothing new. But Bamby should have a 10 to 20 point lead on McCain considering how history usually works when it comes to this early polling data. The fact that a large chunk of voters whose initial response should be to pick the candidate who would be a change of party are not doing so before they start paying any real attention does not bode well for Bamby. Carter had a 30 point lead only a few months before the election in 76 before winning by two points. Bamby needs a buffer early as well if he wants to win.
NotCoach on June 17, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Hey, I’ll take that. Better than getting destroyed, and if they pick up 4 seats, the DNC won’t have a veto proof majority.
Complete7 on June 17, 2008 at 5:41 PM
.
This is not fact or even close to it. This is frustration on your part that you don’t have a candidate that you like. Most Americans are not Socialists or Communists. If they were this would be an election between Obama and Huckabee with Obama leading by 40 points in the polls.
NotCoach on June 17, 2008 at 5:42 PM
I would argue that point, I think that one belongs to Chet Arthur. But I guess he was only a VP candidate.
Squid Shark on June 17, 2008 at 5:45 PM
So you are completely ignorant of past elections polling data from this early in the cycle that always had the party out of power ahead by a large margin?
NotCoach on June 17, 2008 at 5:51 PM
McCain has gained independents.
Independents will decide this one.
fogw, I believe youth will actually show ub, but others will tell pollsters one thing and vote the opposite. This will include many of Hillary’s supporters, and many other democrats.
I believe in this cycle the pollsters will never have it right as no sane person is going to tell them the truth.
On a night, early this Nov. many in this country and the world will either have a Gargantuan orgasm, or cry hysterically. Either will be bad for us all. It’s going to be ugly.
Barack and Michelle Obama will have set back racial relations more than anyone in the last 30 years, win or lose.
Entelechy on June 17, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Can someone make me a t-shirt that simply says 1/10? I’m willing to bet I’m not the only one who would wear it.
fourstringfuror on June 17, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Polls have been known to be off when it comes to Obama. Don’t underestimate the race factor. What people tell pollsters and what they do behind the curtain may be two different things entirely.
And then theres’ the non-racist 90+ % of the black vote the 1/2 black will get.
dhunter on June 17, 2008 at 6:53 PM
Absolutely, Entelechy,
no matter which one wins the American people lose, not just in race relations which will be potentially horrendous, but unless someone drastically changes policy postions, the country will suffer mightly as one of these two attempt to fulfill a fools errand.
Cap and trade, higher taxes, manmade global baloney, wide open borders, all proven loosers but both candidates dance dangerously with these failed policies.
dhunter on June 17, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Always?
I don’t seem to recall that being the case with the Reagan/Carter presidential race.
Maybe you are ignorant of that race?
MB4 on June 17, 2008 at 8:36 PM
You might want to know what you are talking about when you call someone ignorant. Just a suggestion.
MB4 on June 17, 2008 at 8:38 PM
NotCoach on June 17, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Remember that mb4’s solipsism is grounded in his/hers ability to refrain from dignifying Obama’s childlike “dreams” while maintaining their partys ideological differences which makes mb4 a true adversary.
Rovin on June 17, 2008 at 11:44 PM
The mere fact that I respond to the postings and comments of others, and quite often I might add, in and of itself, demonstrates the fallacy of your claim. And then there is, of course, much to the consternation of some I might add, all the quoting that I do.
MB4 on June 18, 2008 at 3:42 AM
The polls are not measuring the unspeakable factor
For all the press is building Obie up, I am finding Obama is ‘he-who-cannot-be named’ among working class people where I live. This is the first Presidential election in my life where zero people are mentioning there is an election. Occasionally I get the furtive glance followed by a couple whispered remarks about his disqualification to be President
The guy has black racist-nationalist connections through his Church of choice. He has muslim connections through his family. He has anti-American radical hippie-overthrow the government connections through his choice of friends. His wife is ashamed of America (first impressions are the only impressions that count on patriotism).
All these negatives are magnified by his fuzzy denials of the anti-American parts and reluctant embracing of normal American values
But, the press says he is another Kennedy and the black community hints the election is rigged if Obie is not elected.
So no one says a word. The resentments are internalized and the distaste for the most distasteful candidate in my memory is building, not receding
The politically correct watchdogs have made it clear to the public that they cannot speak their minds about Obie, so the public is eating it.
Do not mistake silence for agreement, or contentment
entagor on June 18, 2008 at 4:46 AM