Still needs to be said…..we’re farked either way.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on June 5, 2008 at 11:09 AM

No, we’re not. Mike Huckabee will be the next POTUS.

Republicans – 25.5%
Democrats – 41.5%
Independents – 33%

is that not close to current Party ID right now in the country?

We need a 3rd party run that would appeal to Hillary supporters, their Barr or something.

jp on June 5, 2008 at 11:16 AM

Well… I’m not sure what the Party Registration numbers are… but for comparison, in 2004 37% of the voters self-ID’d as Republican, 37% as Democrat, and 26% as Independent.

Now, in principle it might be true that more than a third of the Republicans who voted for Bush in 2004 will take their marbles and stay home in 2008. And it probably will be true that Democrats who stayed home in 2004 will come out for Obama in 2008. But if the numbers are really that large, then the importance of that far outshadows the results of this minor poll, and CBS has buried the lead, dramatically.

Still needs to be said…..we’re farked either way.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on June 5, 2008 at 11:09 AM

I got my bonus this morning. I started doing the math on what it might look like next year under President Barry.

Ill be sending McCain my first check later today.

Still needs to be said…..we’re farked either way.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on June 5, 2008 at 11:09 AM

we are SO more farked with Barry….

max1 on June 5, 2008 at 11:24 AM

No we’re not. The Republican Party will pay dearly in the long run if Johnny Mac is elected. If Obama is elected the party may move to the right. Either way the election goes, we’re farked, just in different ways.

McCain has always been good at getting the independents. That is his base. The Moderate/Liberals. If you mean the Republican Base, the twenty percent or so of Conservatives? Forget it, he’ll never stop dumping on us, so we won’t bother voting for him. Seems fair, he’s never had a use for us before.

Snake307 on June 5, 2008 at 12:15 PM

John McCain isn’t that liberal. He’s a fiscally conservative hawk. I think he’s deeply mistaken on McCain-Feingold and immigration, to be sure. I am still on the fence over whether McCain was right to have joined the “Gang of 14″ on judges. But there is a huge chasm between McCain and Obama on nearly every issue.

McCain’s big sin, in my view, is the viciousness he employs when disagreeing with Republicans on issues (e.g. immigration). And I don’t know the degree to which the nastiness in the 2000 primary process contributed to that.

Still, the legitimately “conservative” major candidate in the GOP field this time was Fred Thompson who, God love him, didn’t have the fire in his belly to get the job done. And so, in this year of terrible GOP brand equity, the party’s “maverick” stages a come from behind victory. We just need to deal with it, hold our noses, and vote McCain. Hopefully McCain will force the party to toe the line on wasteful spending and enlarging the size of government.

Snake307 on June 5, 2008 at 12:15 PM

You mean he hasnt been beholden to you like a slave on the plantation.

Rasmussen’s poll numbers consistently show a party ID differential of about 6 to 10% in favor of the Democrats, not 16% as in the CBS poll. Use a realistic sample of the electorate, and Obama’s lead disappears.

But these skewed polls might be a blessing in disguise–they might lull Obama and his supporters into a false sense of complacency, and motivate the McCain campaign to win over “independent” voters and “get out the base”.

Steve Z on June 5, 2008 at 12:08 PM

McCain has always been good at getting the independents. That is his base. The Moderate/Liberals. If you mean the Republican Base, the twenty percent or so of Conservatives? Forget it, he’ll never stop dumping on us, so we won’t bother voting for him. Seems fair, he’s never had a use for us before.

No matter how the numbers are skewed, the mere fact that so many Americans have been taken in by Obama is disturbing.

I am remided of the movie the American President:

Chief of Staff: People are thirsty for leadership, they are so thirsty that they will crawl through the desert on their hands and knees and when they find a mirage, they will drink the sand”

President: People dont drink the sand because they are thirsty, AJ, they drink it because they dont know any better.

History must be mnade, at any cost.

Even the nation’s.

It’s time!

So if the silly obviously skewed polls being generated by the LEFT at this point are ONLY giving Obama a 6% lead over McCain, this probably means that Obama is more like 12% or more points BEHIND McCain.

How do I make that calculation you ask? I’ve been around the block a few times and seen it all too many times before.

The polls we are seeing now are not worth the paper they are written on, mark my word.

I guess you should have considered the roughly twenty percent of Conservatives who would rather slam a portion of their anatomy in a sliding glass door than vote for McCain.

I personally don’t believe that there are that many people who combine masochism and megalomaniacal self-importance to that extent, though I agree that it’s a good characterization of the anyone-but-McCain gang on the right.

But these skewed polls might be a blessing in disguise–they might lull Obama and his supporters into a false sense of complacency, and motivate the McCain campaign to win over “independent” voters and “get out the base”.

And yeah, fake poll numbers do equal real votes over time. Maybe if we really had a conservative candidate we should demand equal fake poll numbers since CBS etal are campaigning for Obama.

I’ve been amazed at how skewed much of this polling is. But then again they were all telling us that John Kerry had a slim lead for ages in 2004.

Yeah, but I remember how often we told ourselves that the polling was hopelessly skewed before 2006, and that didn’t work out too well.

Snake307 on June 5, 2008 at 11:47 AM

Something I agree with you on. CBS’ polling does not actually change anything, it only highlights their apparent bias.

CBS and others ran very skewed polls starting in 2005, almost weekly when Bush was around 50% approval to I think gradually make his numbers go down and him being “unpopular” a popular notion, etc. bush helped some with amnesty and what not, but it started with media propaganda like this, skewed polls as news stories.

jp on June 5, 2008 at 11:26 AM

You have to be kidding, Bush helped somewhat? Do you remember a few short years ago? Bush’s poll numbers dropped with each death in Iraq, and his refusal to consider a change of plan for how many months? He kept political anchors that even his own party was telling him to cut loose out of loyalty. McClellan for example, who gave the administration the appearance that they didn’t give a damn what people thought. The completely asinine mishandling of Katrina by every level of Government was the nail in the coffin of the Republican Party in the elections of 2006.

Instead of responding with information, the White House stood there and just said they were looking into the matter.

Reagan would have stood there and said. “So far, FEMA has sent some 1,000 helicopters and crews, 800 Ambulances and paramedic crews. 500 Electrical Crews. 650 Army field kitchen sets.” Then the Reagan team would have said something like. “We’re sending the material, but the State of Louisiana has not employed it to assist the victims in New Orleans. It has been 48 hours, and the National Guard has not yet been called up. I’m therefor Federalizing the National Guard and going in to get those people.”

Instead Bush met with Governor Blanco and told her to activate the National Guard, and agreed to give her, and the Victims, and the bad press, another 24 hours while she considered the offers? Bush opened the damn door, and walked into the wall avoiding the doorway entirely. He allowed the ideal that FEMA was doing nothing. Instead of explaining that FEMA did not have an army of sport shirt wearing people to show up and clean up, but co-ordinated the response of the several states and paid for everything. It required the local authorities to have some clue as to what was going on to effectively accomplish anything.

Bush helped somewhat? What do you say to someone who’s just been in an accident and is laying there bleeding? “That’s probably going to leave a mark.”

Probably an overreaction but I just can’t shake this feeling of dread….

tottoritodd on June 5, 2008 at 11:31 AM

I know the feeling.

RCP and the other indexes should just switch to Gallup and Rasmussen. They’re the only ones who even came close in 2004 or this year, so far. Look up CBS’s predictions in the primary this year. I doubt Obama’s internal polls were that rosy.

Liberals(progressives etc.) Blame Bush and when he is gone they will blame carbon (ie Global Warming) a element that all life produces just by breathing (being alive)

probably just worrying too much though