Obama’s Latino problem?
posted at 11:14 am on June 2, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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As expected, Hillary Clinton’s big win in Puerto Rico has already become Exhibit A to demonstrate Barack Obama’s weakness among Latino voters. The Hillary campaign has flogged this hard in their efforts to convince superdelegates to reserve judgment on the primary until the convention in Denver. The argument itself ignores the diversity of elements within the “Latino” vote in the US and the fact that Puerto Rico doesn’t vote in the general election:
Ken Vogel reports that the Clinton campaign is using the results to openly argue that Barack Obama has a problem with Hispanic voters — an idea Clinton backers have previously mentioned only behind the scenes.
“It was a 100 percent Hispanic primary and it shows that he has a problem with the Latino community,” Terry McAuliffe, campaign chairman for Hillary Clinton, told a handful of reporters after polls closed Sunday. “He cannot close in this key core constituency,” McAuliffe added.
Voters in Puerto Rico are in some ways different from Hispanics living stateside, both because there’s a long tradition of racial mixing and because elections here tend to center around the debate over whether the island should remain a commonwealth or become a state or an independent nation. They also don’t vote in November.
Clinton has fared better than Obama with Hispanic voters in previous primaries. And her campaign has argued to superdelegates that she’d do better than Obama against presumptive GOP nominee in key states with large Hispanic populations.
I predicted that this would start being a big argument for Team Hillary, and they’re right on schedule. They don’t have much else to use now, and they are grasping at every straw still left to them. In one way, it’s an extension of the identity politics that have plagued the Democratic primaries all year. Hillary wants to stoke the competition between ethnic blocs within the Democratic coalition in order to destabilize Obama’s standing at the convention.
Will it work? Doubtful. Most Hispanic voters in the US would not look to Puerto Rico for guidance on their vote and have no connection to the US territory. Voters in Puerto Rico won’t matter in November. Florida, the state closest to Puerto Rico, will get influenced much more heavily by its Cuban expatriate community.
In the end, Puerto Rico will mean nothing in the march to the convention. If Obama really does have a Latino problem, its source lies elsewhere, as does its solution.
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Oh, but he does have a “Latino problem”, from the talk I’ve heard.
They just will not vote for a Black. This is what they say.
pseudonominus on June 2, 2008 at 11:19 AM
this is the dirty little secret of the ‘grand democratic coaliton’
blacks and latinos don’t like each other…check out LA and the mexican gangs trying to push blacks, whether they’re gang members or not, out of their hood.
we’re becoming yugoslavia….
right4life on June 2, 2008 at 11:20 AM
Looks like most of the Latinos are RACIST !!!
aniladesai on June 2, 2008 at 11:23 AM
A better gauge would be the South Texas results in that primary back in March. Obama won the big city inner area and the white liberal enclaves in Austin (where Obama’s organization would later prove key in the controversial caucuses), while Hillary won landslides in the predominantly Hispanic border counties. It’s doubtful a whirlwind tour of the area by Bill Richardson in support of Barack is going to be able to fix that problem quickly.
jon1979 on June 2, 2008 at 11:30 AM
It’s not so simple. The largest bloc of swing voters in the largest chunk of swing voters in the US is the Puerto Rican population of Central Florida. Cubans in Miami break down mostly into two reliable groups: 1) Republicans 2) Cuban thugs and assassins sponsored by Castro.
I’m totally unbiased of course. But their votes do break the same way almost every time.
Obama’s brand has been tarnished and the goodwill of the business went up in smoke when we learned the new POTUS speech-ender might be “and goddamn you, and goddamn America, good night.” You just can’t buy pub like that. People don’t like it when your best friends want to murder them. It cuts across racial, economic, and other lines.
Beagle on June 2, 2008 at 11:32 AM
It has to be killing her that given Obama’s mounting problems, she is looking more and more like the person to go up against McCain, and she is so close but yet so far. It’s like losing in the semi finals of a baseball tournament because of a rain out in the late innings, then having to watch your opponent lose in the Championship to a team you know you can beat.
moc23 on June 2, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Skilled blacks and Latinos compete for affirmative action positions, and unskilled blacks and Latinos compete for the same jobs, period. It doesn’t take a professional diversity counselor to figure out what motivates the suspicion that exists between the two “communities.”
RBMN on June 2, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Very true, but he does have a problem with the Hispanic vote. I am Hispanic and was born and raised in a mid-size Texas town whose population is about 80% Hispanic. I don’t live there anymore, but still have a lot of family there. Therefore, I am still connected to that town, and know the politics very well. I can tell you that Obama lost there, much like he did in all other areas in Texas where there are a large number of Hispanics. In Dallas, some of the Hispanic community leaders came out and said that Obama would not get the Hispanic vote because blacks have not done anything for Hispanics. Identity politics at its best.
Personally, I can’t stand identity politics. We will never achieve equality if we keep harping on these issues. If you keep arguing that race is an issue, then it becomes an issue. This election would not be about race, ethnicity and gender if the Dems didn’t constantly argue that any political attack on Obama was racist, and that Hillary was facing sexist attacks from opponents. The Dems are to blame for this.
Rick on June 2, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Obama has brought black racism to the forefront. Most whites have stop judging the color of a person’s skin, but do not want to be punished for the color of their own skin. Obama has spent years having his family indocrinated by the undeniable hate speech prevalent in his church. The democrats have always used racial hatrid and class envy as the driving forces to hold power. Maybe Latinos see things for what they are and not what we want them to be.
volsense on June 2, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Back in the early days of the primary campaign, when Obama was the “post-racial” candidate, none of this would have mattered much. Once he became the poster boy for identity politics, the well-known antipathy between the black and Latino voting blocks was bound to come into play. Puerto Rico may not vote in the general, but a 40 point thumping in an all-Latino primary is bound to make an awful lot of Dems nervous, particularly given the Hispanic outreach efforts of the McCain campaign….
Priscilla on June 2, 2008 at 11:56 AM
hmmm, I think that should have been “blocs” not “blocks”
Priscilla on June 2, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I can concur. Here in the Corpus Christi area, you could see where the two really campaigned, to see which peoples they were targeting.
During her stop here, Hillary chose to have a rally at the Nueces County Fairgrounds, with our local Congresscritter present. The Fairgrounds are located next to Route 77, which goes as far down the Rio Grande Valley to Brownsville and McAllen – in counties with heavy Mexican-American populations. Moreover, Ole’ Bill dined with business leaders at the Solomon Ortiz International Center – the only major gathering place I’ve seen named after a living (and still in office!) Congresscritter.
Where did Obama choose to have his rally? At Corpus Christi’s American Bank Center – a bit more of a drive for many Rio Grande Valley residents to Downtown and the Bay. He only seemed to have focused on the cities, and never on the farmlands.
The difference is clear as day here in South TX.
newton on June 2, 2008 at 12:08 PM
I may have duplicate posts and sorry about that. It previewed but did not display. I just wanted to add that Bill Clinton pardonned the FALN bombers when he left office.
A very useful pardon, like the pardon placed in the NY orthodox Jewish community which helped in Hillary’s Senate election
There is a big difference between Puerto Rican and Mexican. Puerto Ricans are racially mixed, while Mexicans have very little black blood. They have different agendas, although their leftists both enjoy hating the USA.
They both get happy when the US is taken down a peg, and a US President giving a cigar to anti US terrorists is a warm and fuzzy plus
entagor on June 2, 2008 at 12:19 PM
US hispanics need not “look to Puerto Rico” for this to indicate a larger problem… this “problem” is sufficiently large, I think, to neutralize 2/3 or more of the messiah’s black voting block–it comes down to turnout in the different groups.
DaveS on June 2, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Will it help you to know that only about ten percent of the boricua (Puerto Rican) population in the island support independence, and even less support it by violent means? The Independence Party over there barely registers politically in every four-year election. And the vast majority would never support FALN (”Los Macheteros”).
And you can bet your hard-earned buck that I think their terrorists acts are abominable.
newton on June 2, 2008 at 12:31 PM
The thing I find most interesting about this year’s “rat” primary is the fact that there is absolutely nothing inaccurate about the case being put forth by Clinton’s people. Nor is there anything inaccurate in Obama’s case either. This is the perfect storm of colliding special interest fronts- resulting in a tempest not easily contained.
The truth of the matter is that were Obama or Clinton up against a white guy the narrative would already be written. But the Democrats have long been making promises to special interests and the primary race has essentially boiled down to a internal debate over whose special interests have priority.
highhopes on June 2, 2008 at 12:31 PM
Oh, here’s an example closer to home – at least for me.
A bomb tore the front windows of an Army recruiting office in my PR hometown. This happened while I was still in high school, in the late 80s.
The leader of that group, Filiberto Ojeda Rios, was killed relatively recently in an FBI raid in the island.
newton on June 2, 2008 at 12:34 PM
Playing devil’s advocate here……
OK so Puerto Ricans don’t want independence but they don’t seem to want statehood either. How long do we continue this commonwealth scheme with Guam, the V.I., and Puerto Rico? This is 2008- the age of empire is over with. Isn’t it time we shed the last vestiges of that era?
highhopes on June 2, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Let’s make them states. That way Obama’s “57 states” gaffe won’t be AS inaccurate.
Snort.
omnipotent on June 2, 2008 at 12:44 PM
Dude, Latinos are not going to come out for Obama, period.
It will be interesting to see if the MSM covers the exit polls. Tensions are high in Los Angeles, I do not think politicians like Maxine Waters would be able to carry on the struggle for illegals in the face of exit polls showing latinos coming out for McCain.
Theworldisnotenough on June 2, 2008 at 12:49 PM
A little off topic but, how did Puerto Rico get so lucky?(don’t answer, I actually do know) I wish my state (Texas) had the option to vote on whether to remain a state or become independent.
Ars Moriendi on June 2, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Oh! I thought Obama was just going to carve up some of the larger states to make the numbers work out! Or maybe carving NYC into its own state so that his pal Bloomberg can be a governor without having to deal with those “clingers” that live in the wilds of NY (other side of the Hudson) ;-O
Seriously though, IMO it is put up or shut up time for the territories. Puerto Rico has been administered by the US since 1900 and its inhabitants have been US citizens since 1917. At some point that relationship needs to EVOLVE. Puerto Rico was unwilling to support naval gunfire exercises yet demands the protection of the United States. They hold American citizenship but also serves as a useful conduit for South American drugs. Puerto Rico is not a colony of the United States and it is time for a change.
highhopes on June 2, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Puerto Rico got “lucky” because they became war booty in the Spanish American war as the US carved out an empire in the late 19th century. I would add that Texas did vote for independence or statehood after the Texas Republic failed. They chose statehood.
highhopes on June 2, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Actually, yours has it written in its constitution that it can vote to secede at any time…a fact my Texan acquaintances seldom fail to mention.
James on June 2, 2008 at 1:03 PM
“If Obama really does have a Latino problem, its source lies elsewhere, as does its solution”. The problem is a long-standing one: racism. Even though the Latinos have the rap/gang(ster) culture, there is great animosity between the Latino and Black communities. There are competing ‘minorities’ and the Latino community is fast becoming the majority, especially in the border states.
Juan McAmnesty will be competitive in the Hispanic community, so he doesn’t need my vote even if i could bring myself to fill in that bubble. My hand shook with trepidation when i voted for Dubya in 2004, I don’t want a replay of that palsy.
Christine on June 2, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Obama doesn’t get: Hispanics, white women, jews, white working class, Trinity church members, religious.
He gets: liberal white pinheads at universities and coffee shops, students(if they vote), blacks, foreign dictators and terrorists, superdelegates.
He’s a dope. The superdelegates are dopes. Whatever.
JiangxiDad on June 2, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Really? I always thought that was just an urban myth.
Ars Moriendi on June 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM
I dunno…wouldn’t be the first time a Texan has stretched the truth about his home state.
(And lest I be seen as anti-Texan, I lived in 3 different places in Texas in the ’90s.)
James on June 2, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Just to amplify on what beagle said above re the Hispanic population of Florida: Cubans are now a minority of the Hispanic population in Florida. As of 2004, 31.1 percent of Florida Hispanics were Cuban, 18 percent Puerto Rican, 13.6 Mexican and 37.4 “other Hispanic and Latino.”
The fastest growing Hispanic group in Florida is the Puerto Rican contingent in Central Florida, and they trend Democratic.
Last month, for the first time, registered Democrats of Hispanic origin outnumbered registered Republicans of Hispanic origin in Florida.
So, to sum up, the Hispanic vote in Florida will not be “influenced much more heavily by its Cuban expatriate community.”
Nichevo on June 2, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Say what? La Raza racist?? But then there was that Obama office with the Che poster…
Shay on June 2, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Lets don’t push on this one too hard people. Obama can’t win the general, Hillary could. If the Dems have another “death wish” we should let them play it out. I don’t like McCain but he is far better than these two.
duff65 on June 2, 2008 at 4:20 PM
I don’t like McCain but he is
far betterless repulsive than these two.McCain isn’t a good candidate either so let’s not fool ourselves into thinking otherwise. Of the three Democrats running for the Presidency, McCain is simply the least stinky option. America is screwed no matter who wins it simply is slightly less screwed with McCain.
highhopes on June 2, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Liberal logic: All members of an ethnic group think alike. Behold, the party of tolerance and diversity!
ThePrez on June 2, 2008 at 5:59 PM
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