Why is Puerto Rico important in the primary?
posted at 10:12 am on June 1, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The media has followed Hillary Clinton’s lead in highlighting Puerto Rico as a critical stop for the Democratic presidential primaries. Hillary needs a big boost from the American territory to pad her popular-vote numbers and convince superdelegates that she can win the Latino vote in a general election, which may be more favorably inclined towards John McCain. No one really mentions that Puerto Rico is irrelevant in November:
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is counting on a big win in today’s Democratic presidential primary, one day after a party ruling left her presidential campaign on the ropes.
A landslide victory would bolster Clinton’s argument to superdelegates that she has received more votes than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and is better equipped to win important Latino votes in a general election matchup with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. …
That political engagement has seldom extended to mainland-based campaigns because, while Puerto Rico will send 63 delegates to the Democratic convention, it has no electoral votes in the general election. Democrats have traditionally held presidential caucuses here and were intending to do the same this year until it began to appear the Clinton-Obama race would still be unsettled by the time Puerto Rico’s turn came.
In other words, the Puerto Rico primary is utterly useless as an argument for a general-election advantage. Puerto Rico residents do not vote in the general election. The island usually has the last contest in the primary as a symbolic show, and because it holds no meaning at all, they usually just caucus rather than going to the expense of a primary.
Today, expect to find all sorts of analysis about which candidate can win which sections of the islands. It all means nothing for predictive value as to which would make the better candidate in November. If Hillary won 90% of the vote, it won’t mean an extra jot or tittle in the general election, nor would it if Obama won 90%. The relation of Puerto Rico as an indicator of the “Latino vote” is at best tenuous and probably non-existent, as Puerto Rico and its residents have different concerns and political issues than Cuban refugees, Mexican-Americans, and Americans of Central American and South American descent. The Latino vote is a lot more complicated than the simple shorthand used by the media.
My prediction? Hillary wins by fifteen, and it changes nothing. South Dakota and Montana won’t be much more meaningful, either. After yesterday’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting demonstrated, this fight will go all the way to the convention, and more than likely past it.
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Same reason Guam is important.
Sloan Morganstern on June 1, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Not only will Hillary take Puerto Rico by fifteen; she’ll positively own the terrorist FALN vote.
Cicero43 on June 1, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Puerto Rico is important for this primary season because of 1 thing…
pina coladas
ernesto on June 1, 2008 at 10:25 AM
Errr… because they’re the 57th state?
abinitioadinfinitum on June 1, 2008 at 10:30 AM
What about the Puerto Ricans of NYC?
VinceP1974 on June 1, 2008 at 10:33 AM
What ’s wrong with this?
Fox intern(daughter of veteran) who openly said to McCain he is going to win was fired. Meanwhile, Geraldo Rivera kissing Hillary on camera & praising her - no consequences.
Anita on June 1, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Quite true. However, it does once again bolster her argument that she can pull in the Hispanic vote. It’s yet another example of her being able to pull in a demographic McCain will make quite a dent in with Obama as the nominee.
amerpundit on June 1, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Primary/Caucus analysis by Rupert Holmes?
jdkchem on June 1, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Puerto Rico ? Is that one of the 57 states?
Maxx on June 1, 2008 at 10:53 AM
Living here in Orlando, let me assure you the Puerto Rican primary absolutely has predictive utility in the general election - in the Holy Swing State of Florida.
Beagle on June 1, 2008 at 10:56 AM
What about the Puerto Ricans of NYC?
VinceP1974 on June 1, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Vince, those are New Yoricans - totally different.
Mrs. Happy Housewife on June 1, 2008 at 11:08 AM
Puerto Rico is important in the primary because it’s good for tourism.
Indy Conservative on June 1, 2008 at 11:09 AM
Guam, Puerto Rico, and an island where Kucinich can be elected…all a joke.
ApartforHaShem on June 1, 2008 at 11:39 AM
So Hillary has become the new Thirsty Traveller? I love it!
Nethicus on June 1, 2008 at 11:40 AM
What choice does she have? Life imitates art. She’s in denial. Curtis Mayfield said it the best in 1972…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrHezTLex2s&feature=related
Darkest of night
With the moon shinin’ bright
There’s a set goin’ strong
Lotta things goin’ on
The man of the hour
Has an air of great power
The dudes have envied him for so long
Oooh, Superfly
You’re gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don’t ask no questions why
The only game you know is “Do or Die”
Ah-ha-ha
Hard to understand
What a hell of a man
This cat of the slum
Had a mind, wasn’t dumb
But a weakness was shown
‘Cause his hustle was wrong
His mind was his own
But the man lived alone
Oooh, Superfly
You’re gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don’t ask no questions why
The only game you know is “Do or Die”
Ah-ha-ha
The game he plays he plays for keeps
Hustlin’ cards on ghetto streets
Tryin’ ta get over
(That’s what he tryin’ to do, y’all)
Takin’ all that he can take
Gamblin’ with the odds of fate
Tryin’ ta get over
Tryin’ ta get over
Tryin’ ta get over
Tryin’ ta get over
Woo, Superfly
The aim of his role
Was to move a lot of blow
Ask him his dream
What does it mean
He wouldn’t know
“Can’t be like the rest”
Is the most he’ll confess
But the time’s running out
And there’s no happiness
Oooh, Superfly
You’re gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don’t ask no questions why
The only game you know is “Do or Die”
Ah-ha-ha
Superfly
Superfly
Superfly
Superfly
patrick neid on June 1, 2008 at 1:05 PM
While this is a very accurate summation, the plain truth is that facts matter not a whit when it comes to reasoning with the general voting public, especially “moderates” and “liberals”. Perception is the overriding factor, and the MSM is all about manipulating perception.
And while the MSM will attempt to manipulate, or “translate” the Puerto Rican voting results, Hillary Clinton will be busy manipulating the results in a completely different fashion….for the benefit of the superdelegates, to make sure that their “perception” of what it all means relating to the bigger picture of winning the “Latino” votes in the General Election….is the utmost favorable for her and her arguments to them that she is the strongest nominee in the realm of winning the Latin American votes in the General.
KendraWilder on June 1, 2008 at 1:22 PM
“What’s wrong with this?
Fox intern (daughter of veteran) who openly said to McCain he is going to win, was fired. Meanwhile, Geraldo Rivera kissing Hillary on camera & praising her - no consequences.”
Anita: That’s what my liberal brother would say: ‘What’s wrong with that?’
It would seem to me that Horaldo is just giving homage to his queen, the world’s most ‘forgiving’ and *enabling ‘wife’, something he hasn’t encountered in his wives; also, didn’t he defend BJ at his darkest hour?
(*Enabling to the point of giving the ‘ok’ on certain women).
Christine on June 1, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Didn’t the Clintons receive a lot of donations from a Puerto Rico druglord back in 1996?
logis on June 1, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Huh? Never heard of that one!
newton on June 1, 2008 at 2:34 PM
I’ve been to all 57 states and I say they’re all important for several purposes including but not excluding the purpose of our media’s heroic unspoken agenda of deluting the truly important issues and the ever popular clouding of a candidate’s hatred for his country. I feel we just couldn’t have true election coverage without those extra 7 states and their contributions. PR is even more important when you include the fact that there are absolutely zero insane religious figures living and speaking out from their pulpits upon this magnificant colonial paradise.
Griz on June 2, 2008 at 8:07 AM
BHO: “Tastes Great!”
HRC: “Less Filling!”
History will reveal these as two representatives of a wheezing, dying culture. It is just as revealing that most Americans believe in them as well, and would be happy to have either of them in power. Adios, D.C.
leftnomore on June 2, 2008 at 1:54 PM