Open thread: Kentucky and Oregon; Update: Hillary wins Kentucky; Update: Obama wins Oregon
posted at 6:00 pm on May 20, 2008 by Allahpundit
Are conclusions this foregone liveblogworthy? No. Threadworthy? Sure! There’s bound to be something tasty in the exit polls, and think what fun we’ll have dissecting the media’s angst if Her Majesty manages to hang another 40-point blowout around the presumptive nominee’s neck. He’s going to clinch a majority of pledged delegates too, which adds some intrigue to their victory speeches later on. Will Hillary hint that the end is near? Or will she continue to rock on, perhaps punctuating her defiant address with a sassy, “See you in Puerto Rico, sucka”?
Back soon with data. While you wait, enjoy incompetent former Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle rubbing salt in the wounds she inflicted on Hillary; dissension in the ranks between Hillary aides who think it’s time to defect to Obama and diehards who have imbibed the proverbial Kool-Aid; and Richard Cohen with an uncharacteristically trenchant piece on why Hillary fights on. It’s all about the grittiness — in which case, er, what’s with the sudden whining about sexism?
Update: See what I mean?
According to CBS News early exit polling, in Kentucky, eight in ten Clinton voters said they would be dissatisfied if Obama was the Democratic nominee. Obama voters were about evenly split on whether they would be satisfied if Clinton got the nomination.
In Kentucky, just 33 percent of Clinton voters said they would back Obama in the general election if he is the Democratic nominee – 41 percent said they will vote for McCain, and another 23 percent say they won’t vote.
Update: The evening’s first foregone conclusion is in the books as the nets call Kentucky for Hillary. Here’s the full exit poll; based on the gender breakdown, she’s looking at roughly a 66/34 win with a 40-point spread among women. Interesting tidbit: Of the 42% of Democrats who say Obama shouldn’t pick Hillary as VP, fully half of them voted today for Hillary. I’m not sure how to interpret that. This is fun, too:
Racial polarization? Obama wins blacks 88/7, Hillary wins whites 72/22, with 21% of voters saying race was important (among whites who said so, Hillary won 86%). To put that in perspective for you, it’s a bigger margin among whites than she had in Mississippi. I wonder if this has anything to do with that:
Update: Here are the exits for Oregon. Gender breakdown says Obama should win by 10 points or so. Obama wins across almost all demographics, including white Democrats (whites made up 85% of all voters) and loses among white women by a single point. Only 12% say they’ll vote for McCain over Obama and only 10% say race was important to them — and of those, 51% voted for Obama.
Blowback
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I’m sorry; but that makes me feel better about my dorked out self with Fox on; Herman Cain streaming and posting here. ;-D
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Heh. I’m watching FNC, streaming Hewitt, and posting here. No, I don’t have a problem… SURE I don’t. ;o)
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:12 PM
I think that qualifies you as a junkie.
LOL, don’t worry. I’ve done the same thing myself…many, many times.
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Wait a minute, I resemble that remark ;^D
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:14 PM
As long as you claim the basement for your bunker/den/media room before she gets any ideas about it, you will always have sanctuary.
Family…you must have a good one indeed if you’re happy about being closer.
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Since version 1.0. But for this one I’ll use Illustrator. Might animate it in After Effects and add in the soviet national anthem as background music… Hey, this thing’s shaping up! ;o)
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:15 PM
Hildebeast giving her victory speech…
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:16 PM
I am getting very interested in this project from the outside. Sounds pretty darn good!
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:17 PM
You don’t by any chance make your living this way…?
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:17 PM
… and he betrayed you for obambi…
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Grace under fire – Hillary is doing it – Sen. Kennedy who left her, is being adulated, for good reasons. She’s good. She’s nearly crying for him. Good for her! Magnanimous, indeed.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Best to stay annoymous, but yeah. For a long long time now.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Hildabeast: why didn’t Teddy endorse ya then, you old cow! hahahaha
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:18 PM
64/31 now. Being from Kentucky I find it difficult to believe she’s only beating BO by about 30 points. I think BO has been stuffing the boxes.
Oldnuke on May 20, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Branch Rickey, stay classy.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:19 PM
ABC isn’t quite ready to call it for McCain yet, even though he leads over 70% against Ron Paul & Co. Funny.
Seixon on May 20, 2008 at 8:20 PM
ROFLOL
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:20 PM
She’s preempting Obama’s intentions in Iowa, and she looks very positive and strong. I fear her, as lately I’ve wished for him to win the nomination.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:21 PM
The cool thing is that it really won’t take that long to do. Capture a frame of obambi as he was talking on FNC earlier today (and they’re re-running it a lot), run it thru autotrace and tweak in Illustrator, and then import and animate in After Effects and render to flash video and post on the web. Piece ‘o cake!
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Me too – 15 years. And just as “below the radar”.
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:21 PM
I was being ironic. Sorry if you were offended.
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:21 PM
She’s in her game. This is not over, not by far.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Branch Rickey, I was not offended. It had nothing to do with me.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Is Hillary correct, does she hold the popular vote in the primaries?
Weebork on May 20, 2008 at 8:22 PM
Hey Entelechy, you’re posting ON TOPIC in an open thread.
How goes the travels?
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:22 PM
I’ll take your word for it.(have no idea what that process is;-) Mac newbie here.
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:23 PM
I’m gonna sign alycan1′s nic at the bottom.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:23 PM
Notice that Bill is sitting waaaaay back tonight, just nodding and smiling. Zinger at Obama “if we only had a president ready to lead”…and at Bush.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:25 PM
RushBaby, hard work behind me, I’m in the South. I tell you there will be a lot of crying in Nov. I can see it all around, I can sense it here, more than anywhere else.
Fear Hillary – just look at her. She is now free of Bill, and of anything. She has overcome. I don’t want her but I fear her. If she makes it she’s got the presidency, and I didn’t feel like this always. These last months have made her much stronger, and freer.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:27 PM
I still have the original version Mac I bought in 1984. One of the first sold in Texas. And it still works. I got the Mac, the Imagewriter I printer, and the only 3 (count ‘em 3!) programs available for the Mac at the time.
Damn, I’m old.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:28 PM
72% of the vote in
Hillary 313,654 …..65%
Obama 149,845 ……31%
Right now the folks in the Obama camp are thinking, please stay above 30%!!
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:28 PM
theBeast: “… we must end Republican rule!”
I’ll bet another nice piece of nastiness is coming down the pike at obambi from her pretty quick. She’s WAY too confident.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I’m not quite a pessimistic as you, but I’ve always been afraid of her. I don’t think it’s quite as cut and dried as you but I think she would definitely have more of a shot than BO.
Oldnuke on May 20, 2008 at 8:30 PM
In Breathitt County Kentucky, the probable Democrat nominee LOST the primary — 90% to 7%.
That is just the way I like my Democrat nominees — weak.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Id I’d be her I’d attack the media, right from that podium, not whining too much, just to rub their noses into something. I’d say Fox has been more fair and balanced than any others. That would make them sizzle.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I agree with you Oldnuke, and that’s why I changed my mind to wish for Obama to win the primaries. Regards to you,
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:33 PM
She’s going to get weaker in the next few though. Gonna play up the sexist thing, which will turn-off males and she’ll be back where she was earlier.
Spirit of 1776 on May 20, 2008 at 8:34 PM
What an interesting take. Have you changed your mind (between those two) a time or three?
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I love Safari and Illustrator but still learning. Would love to be better. Practice, right?
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Yep, unfortunately Breathitt has a fairly low population density.
Oldnuke on May 20, 2008 at 8:37 PM
86% in
Clinton 65%
Obama 31%
bnelson44 on May 20, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Wow. I suppose we’ll always wonder what Iowa would look like, today.
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 8:39 PM
ditto to that – Begalia (sp?) was way to cordial to Donna Brazille this afternoon with Wolf Blitzer….
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:39 PM
I agree. She looks very strong now, but look who she’s up against. She seems so….principled compared to Obama. Once she has to debate McCain, it’ll be back to the old playbook and she’ll look weak again
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Yup. I’ve still got a bunch of Macs, but my primary workstations are XP.
Capturing the clip of obambi right now off FNC…
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Mark Steyn!!
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Yes, RB. I used to think, a while ago, that the populace was tired of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton string. Also, she was different then. I though she was a known commodity and easy to beat. I’ve seen sides to Obama which are ugly (his wife, the rev. Wright, other associations, his elitism, the empty rhetoric, his defensiveness, his negative effect on race-relations). Her in the defensive pose, and fighting back in a steady and strong way, has made me respect her more and more.
As that happened, I changed my mind, since I now find him easier to beat. Also, the math doesn’t add up for him, the just-so-angled pictures of masses notwithstanding. This ‘charismatic’ guy can’t win with emptiness. These are the primaries. The general will be very different.
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Yep, you’re dead on. A ‘feminist’ will once again fall back on “don’t be mean to the girl.” As a “girl” I say, “Attack her POLICIES – full speed ahead!”
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Obama is down to 30% with 89% reporting.
Come on 29%!!!!
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:45 PM
I’ll just start painting kentucky red for november.
lorien1973 on May 20, 2008 at 8:45 PM
It has the same or more number of voters than many other counties today.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:46 PM
You risk taker ;^)
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:46 PM
I agree. After she had her crying bouts, she got way too happy.
I think she’s got an ace in the hole.
davidk on May 20, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Clinton won Clinton County Ky –
529 votes to 39 votes or 92% to 7%.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Maybe that michelle o video of her supposedly railing against ‘whitey’ is real?
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Could be the Ace o Spades.
davidk on May 20, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Listen, young un, my Apple IIe is still going strong! :)
OldEnglish on May 20, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Or maybe she struck a deal with Obama to be the VP and get her campaign debts paid off today.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 8:51 PM
The only thing I’m worried about concerning Obama in the general is a hard move to the center coupled with a moderate VP pick. If he can pull that off (with a nice assist from the MSM, of course) without seeming phony, he could possibly win. As we’ve seen in these special elections, a McCain-style brand of moderate domestic policies coupled with opposition to the GWoT (I don’t understand why the public is embracing this, I guess they’re only thinking with our short term memories) is the winning formula this year.
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 8:52 PM
Heh. I’ll see your Apple IIe (my dream machine at one point in my life) and raise you a TI 99/4A. First real computer I ever owned. Mass storage device: a cassette tape recorder. ;o)
// Someone will undoubtedly chime in with an Altair shortly
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:53 PM
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 8:54 PM
With 91 percent of the vote in, Obama trails, 30 percent to 65 percent. Obama has won two counties so far. A few counties have no results yet, but on CNN’s map, they are islands of white in a sea of light blue (Hillary’s color
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjM0MjA5NWQ1NzE3OTlhYTVlYjQ0YzdiZWUzOWRhYzc=
bnelson44 on May 20, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Speaking only about Kentucky. Breathitt is 74th out of 120 with a population just shy of 16k.
Oldnuke on May 20, 2008 at 8:56 PM
My hubby had a TRS-80….he’s the techno expert in the fam :^D
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Yep. That’s another distinct possibility.
But if I was obambi in that scenario, I’d damn sure watch my back. If you know what I mean, and I think you do.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Oregon exists: 62 percent want the contest to continue.
bnelson44 on May 20, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Vince Foster is still unavailable for comment.
davidk on May 20, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Who would want to be Obama’s “Official Food Taster” if that gawdawful duo ever made it to the WH?
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 9:00 PM
The TRS-80 was the very first computer I ever saw somebody actually use. I was still on an old electric typewriter at that time, writing a screenplay. I saw them move a paragraph on a page and hit the print key and decided right then and there I had to know everything there was to know about that magical machine. Literally changed my life.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Ha! Now THAT would make a great SNL skit.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 9:05 PM
We had a TR-80 when I was a child and the thing I remember the most is how long it took to load the programs. We would put in the cassette type in CLOAD and go have dinner.
When dinner was over we would go back to the computer and play pong.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 9:06 PM
Night poll, what would you say to Hillary?
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/night_poll.php
bnelson44 on May 20, 2008 at 9:09 PM
hubby says dittos – that whole 4k of memory!
Does anyone know with the 200,000+ votes HRC will get over BHO in KY what the gap in the “popular vote” (w/o MI and FL)?
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 9:10 PM
I think TKennedy just trumped it.
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Mine was twofold:
1. copperplate font
2. watching someone attach text to a path.
RushBaby on May 20, 2008 at 9:16 PM
BHO gets less than 10% in multiple counties. Floyd looks like the new record holder at 5%. HRC-11,215 BHO-653.
The domocrats have bought themselves a lemon
forest on May 20, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Yep. Computers and software has come so far. I can literally create anything I can imagine. I’m convinced computers will fundamentally change and speed the evolution of the human mind.
It’s an amazing time to be alive.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Right now Hillary has a net gain of 237,318 in Kentucky.
That puts her 252,348 up including Florida and Michigan.
Without those two states Obama is up 370,773
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 9:24 PM
We can only hope. I agree with Entel; I now think the hildebeast represents the biggest threat in November, should she be able to wrangle the nomination from obambi.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 9:26 PM
It is of the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize, out of a number of facts, which are incidental and which vital. Otherwise your energy and attention must be dissipated instead of being concentrated.
Hillary can not be a cow as if she be a cow how could she fit on her broom, let alone get airborne? Well could be a very wide broom I suppose.
Holmes on May 20, 2008 at 9:34 PM
I know conventional wisdom says that Obama will be the candidate, but I just can’t shake the feeling that somehow she’s going to pull a nomination out of the hat.
Oldnuke on May 20, 2008 at 9:37 PM
Thank YOU!!!
Billy does like em “Big Bottom” – /totally stolen from “This is Spinal Tap”
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 9:40 PM
I have to say, while computers have changed the world for the better, but I’m not sure that future advancements will help. This video covers, among other things, the possible future that advancement will bring. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for people to slow down advancement or take a step back in time, but I’m curious as to what the future will bring. We’re moving VERY fast.
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
You say that like it is a bad thing. The damage has already been done to the Democrat party but we just don’t know which half of the party is the victim yet.
If Hillary wins, what do you think the very vocal race baiters on the left– Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, J. Dudley Wright, Black Panthers, Nation of Islam, etc are going to take to the streets and chant about?
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Admitting you are powerless is the first step.
ronsfi on May 20, 2008 at 9:43 PM
Man, what a massacre.
Terrye on May 20, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Surely, she could just jump? :)
OldEnglish on May 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM
I feel better already ;^D
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM
It’s nuts…how can the presumptive nominee this late in the primary season get crushed as bad as he has?
I’m lost…can’t figure out if Obama is going to roll into the White House over the prostrate forms of the book-licking MSM, or if he’s going to get destroyed because 1/4 of his party stays home and 5-8 percent of Americas won’t vote for a black man.
Asher on May 20, 2008 at 9:46 PM
My favorite line of the night! Bravo! – that and $5 will get you a cup of coffee…
Branch Rickey on May 20, 2008 at 9:47 PM
My Oregon Prediction:
Obama–59%
Hillary–39%
Uncommitted–2%
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 9:47 PM
You would be suprised how many cups of coffee I can get for $5.00. This week I bought 5 bags of “New England Coffee – Breakfast Blend” for $1.00 each (Buy one get one free plus coupons).
NOW, to tell you how old I am. When I graduated college my father told me my degree plus 25 cents would get me a cup of coffee.
EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 9:54 PM
Heh. I get my coffee for FREE at the local diner w/ breakfast.
malan89 on May 20, 2008 at 9:57 PM
Meanwhile on the high seas of political intrigue
Obama rushes up to the periscope!
Capt’n, Hillary skow is dead ahead, should we load
tubes one and two!
Better make real sure,load tubes 1,2,3,4 and
man the deck gun! Hardy har,har har!!!!
canopfor on May 20, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Interesting video!
Yep. It’s not possible to put the genie back in the bottle. I think we’ll eventually go hybrid (cyborg), if we can keep from killing ourselves in the meantime.
I’ve been into technology pretty much my entire life and I am in a perpetual training mode. It is the only way to stay competitive.
We live in interesting times. Thanks for that link.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 10:06 PM
My Oregon prediction:
Obama- 54%
Hillary- 44%
Outrage- 39%
Hollowpoint on May 20, 2008 at 10:07 PM
More truth to that than I’d like to admit.
techno_barbarian on May 20, 2008 at 10:08 PM
I’m with you but EJDolbow on May 20, 2008 at 9:42 PM is absoluely right.
p.s. where do you get that cheap coffee?
Entelechy on May 20, 2008 at 10:09 PM
I hear a nasty rumour Barack is going to be crowned
tonight as thee nominee????
canopfor on May 20, 2008 at 10:09 PM
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