J_Gocht on May 20, 2008 at 8:36 PM

I seek my own counsel most times sir. I trust myself more than anyone else on most occassions. But if you’re fishing for a quote….

“War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest thing. The decayed and degrading sense of moral and patriotic feeling is worse. A man that has nothing which is he is willing to fight for, nothing he cares more about than his personal safety is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself”.

Jon Stuart Mill

I understand your point and don’t ignore the tactical play of a “false surrender”. But if we continue to train and prepare the Iraqi military to deal with such situations when they arise, that too is something we want. Confidence is an important tool in team building. If the Iraqi government and military is building confidence, that is indeed a good thing. It will give them something to reach down and check for when it counts.

Try to remember we are dealing with Islamic army’s and not the U.S. military, where reaching down and finding a pair has rarely been a problem.

“…Does it matter if they stand and fight to the last man or throw down their weapons and flee.

They do not throw down their weapons and flee… they melt into the dark of night and place them under the earth, in an unseen place.

“…Since when gaining ground be considered anything but a victory? Yes, just one battle in a larger war. But ground gained just the same.

The battle shall never be won on the ground…unless the mind of the warrior and the people be in state.

Olde soldier sends…

Hog Wild on May 20, 2008 at 8:00 PM

…and you quote ,Sir?
or perhaps your own self?

Regards/s

MB4 on May 20, 2008 at 12:59 PM

Sorry for the late reply.

I should have added that Shinto was separated from official life in post-war Japan in order to facilitate a complete reorganization of the Japanese political system.

Islam is not a national trait, and, yes, it is much worse than Shinto.

Since when gaining ground be considered anything but a victory? Yes, just one battle in a larger war. But ground gained just the same.

“…Well, this is good news,…” “…I kind of get the sense that everyone is still unsure about this government, and that powerplays are in the future. But we’ll see.
Tom_Shipley on May 20, 2008 at 8:41 AM

Right on Tom…!

For all you fine folks who sit before your keyboards in undies, PJ’s and smoking jackets…I prefer to sit nude. But; that’s just me.

Little history lesson here…

T_S just stated…”…their power plays are in the future…”

Mao Tse-tung; “Guerrilla fighters must be able to live among a friendly population like fish in water…”

Gen. George Washington; “ The task now was not to win the battle, but to save his army. On Thursday morning, Aug. 29, 1776, Washington ordered that all available boats be brought across the East River to Brooklyn Ferry. For the operation he had in mind…”

Beware, Tom Shipley’s caution…and mine…

“To live to fight another day, to lose a fight or competition but not be completely defeated and therefore be able to try again in the future…

Such is the guerillas means!

Such are the goode General’s dilemmas!

Olde soldier sends…

JM Hanes on May 20, 2008 at 3:34 PM

I can certainly identify. I always look for the gotcha, too. But one difference between Sadr City and Beruit is that, in Lebanon the Iranian-back faction is stronger, militarily, than the government. As the Iraqi military gets stronger and more competent this becomes vanishingly unlikely to happen in Iraq. The Iraqi forces are approaching 500,000. This may, in fact, be why we see Iran doing things that appear to be uncharacteristically reasonable. What’s the point in trying to antagonize a government that is firmly in control, and may be on the verge of a military capacity that could really hurt you, both at home and in the region?

I do trust Petraeus to get as much of the job done right as anybody on earth. I’ve begun to think, or rather feel, that by January 20, he may have enough progress sewn up that even Obama can’t turn back the clock, but that’s a seriously close call. With constant, widespread, violence largely eliminated, relief will be quickly followed by discontent if there are no measurable improvements in people’s daily lives. This is not just an infrastructure problem. The cultural change required to stand Iraqis on their own feet when they’ve spent their lives utterly dependent on dictatorial central government is a challenge of enormous dimensions, even without compelling time constraints, and reconciliation is a cultural and economic, not just political, proposition. Iraq will be inherently unstable until that happens.

I’m not trying to diminish the miraculous turn around we’re watching, or gainsay the attendant optimism. I’m just having a too-good-too-be-true moment, steeling myself for potential setbacks, and praying that there is, indeed, enough time to make something like irreversible gains before the year is out.

JM Hanes on May 20, 2008 at 2:57 PM

Sadr City is a slum. Just like the slums in Beruit. In a slum whoever provides services to the people is the organization that gains their backing. In Beruit that is Hezbullah. In Sadr City it was JAM. Now, it looks like, it will be the Iraqi government. That is a giant step forward for Iraq.

“AQI has been so badly damaged, they very likely don’t have much left.”

This may very well be true, which is why I turned my attention any potential single act which could prove devastating enough to tip the balance back into chaos. Every day the government consolidates its reach makes that scenario less likely, but it’s not yet unthinkable. AQ is not entirely without resources that could be directed toward such an undertaking.

“The Iranians, on the other hand, probably realize that this is not the time or place for a showdown; not only would it be a tactical mistake, it would also be a strategic mistake with the US election heating up”

Yes again. We’re clearly looking a tactical retreat with a lot of diplomatic window dressing. What I’m wondering is whether it represents a game changing failure and thus a real Iraqi victory, or whether it is stop gap designed to camouflage a dramatic shift in the nature of their insurgency.

I read somewhere that the Iranians basically had al Sadr under house arrest, although it may only have been a rumor. If true, however, is this because he represents a threat to Iranian operations? Or if it’s the result of some sort of deal making, who are their Iraqi counterparts? The government? Insider factions? Or are they just keeping al Sadr on ice till they need him again — and making sure he knows who his masters are?

All of which is to say, I wouldn’t be nearly as sanguine about those hearts and minds in Sadr City, and elsewhere, as Ed is. You only have to look at Lebanon to see that Iran is not even close to scaling back its ambitions and that it is nothing if not tenacious.

Obviously a sound strategic move by Sadr…?????

tgharris on May 20, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Yes, tg, when four thousand soldiers march into your neighborhood and demand that you lay down your arms and stop the general thuggery of manipulation and intimidation, AND the balance of the nation thinks you’re fighting a lost cause, “strategically” removing yourself from the battlefield is a sound move.

Rovin on May 20, 2008 at 1:17 PM

When self-preservation is the goal, you are probably right.

I was expecting Mosul to explode and still have trouble believing that al Sadr has been permanently sidelined, but the dominos appear to be falling so fast, it’s almost spooky. I’m holding my breath and hoping there are no big progress-shattering surprises on the way.

Seriously. This is starting to look an awful lot like victory. With the Sadrists being defanged Basra and now Sadr City, and AQI being ground into paste in Mosul, is there any other area of the country that is a real trouble spot right now? And with the IA doing so much of the work lately, a light is starting to appear at the end of the tunnel. I trust Petraeus to tell us when things are good to go, and they will probably want to keep the troop levels up through the elections in October, but if nothing major happens between now and then, I get the distinct feeling that major troop draw downs will be announced by the end of this year.

I think the JAM saw what happened when they fought back in Sadr City. They died. They got blowed up real good by Air, by Abrams or by small arms fire.

A lot of the ‘gunmen’ will drop their arms and say “Who, me? Never heard of the Jaish Al Mahdi”. It’ll be kind of like trying to find self-professed SS members in late 1945, early 1946….

major john on May 20, 2008 at 1:49 PM

That’s exactly what we want them to do. We want this to end.

I think the JAM saw what happened when they fought back in Sadr City. They died. They got blowed up real good by Air, by Abrams or by small arms fire.

A lot of the ‘gunmen’ will drop their arms and say “Who, me? Never heard of the Jaish Al Mahdi”. It’ll be kind of like trying to find self-professed SS members in late 1945, early 1946….

AQI has been so badly damaged, they very likely don’t have much left. The Iranians, on the other hand, probably realize that this is not the time or place for a showdown; not only would it be a tactical mistake, it would also be a strategic mistake with the US election heating up.

Obviously a sound strategic move by Sadr…?????

tgharris on May 20, 2008 at 12:51 PM

Yes, tg, when four thousand soldiers march into your neighborhood and demand that you lay down your arms and stop the general thuggery of manipulation and intimidation, AND the balance of the nation thinks you’re fighting a lost cause, “strategically” removing yourself from the battlefield is a sound move.

Islam, on the other hand ….

OldEnglish on May 20, 2008 at 12:11 PM

So you are saying that Islam is even worse than Shintoism?

Well, I am not going to argue with that.

Peter Harling, a Damascus-based analyst at the International Crisis Group thinktank, doubted Tuesday’s operation would succeed in removing the Mehdi Army from Sadr City.

“They’ll lie low but they could retake control of the city any time,” he told Reuters. “The Sadrists feel weakened, feel threatened and this increases the potential for violence.”

Sadr was acquiescing because he did not want an out-and-out confrontation, he said. “The cost to him would be huge.”

The Sadrists could “retake control” at any time…but the cost to Sadr “would be huge”. So Sadr is giving in, because it would cost too much to hold out….but he could take control at any time. In the meantime, the Iraqi government is sinking roots in Sadr’s turf. Obviously a sound strategic move by Sadr…?????

MB4 on May 20, 2008 at 11:35 AM

The main difference between the two scenarios is that Shintoism was a strictly Japanese national religion. As far as I am aware, they made no attempt to impose it upon others, or even fought the war in the name of Shinto.

Islam, on the other hand ….

what about the kurdish regions? Is the PKK? still in control of the border egions or maybe it’s turkey that’s in control. either way I don’t think it’s Iraq. The Kurdish border is still a stornghold for Iran’s influence. That needs to be dealt with and I have no doubt that’s next on the list. Look’s good. McCain was right. And BHO proves everyday he doesn’t know what he is talking about.

“See any American troops going in there right now? No? You know why? Well partly because one fool who should have known better used a Koran as target practice and now the people of that city have a reason to hate Americans.”

That’s absurd. Al Sadr has always claimed that his whole raison d’etre was fighting the American occupation. Denying entry to American troops in Sadr City was the face saving concession that greased the skids. It’s a reverse briar patch win-win.

Given the timing, this is obviously a Rove operation.

Akzed on May 20, 2008 at 9:21 AM

I hope he keeps it up.

bnelson44 on May 20, 2008 at 11:24 AM

Hmmm… lets see… your contention is that shooting a Koran made it so American troops would not be in harms way, and that the Iraqi army would then take care of business…

Dam, lets shoot some more Korans.