45/41: Is Hillary about to shock the world in Oregon?
posted at 4:42 pm on May 19, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Er, no, she is not, despite what the good folks at Suffolk might tell you. In fact, Obama may have already won the state. Lest you despair at the news, though, have a look at the breakdowns in hypothetical McCain/Hillary and McCain/Obama match-ups as predicted by Karl Rove’s firm. (The PDFs are here.) We’re talking about a swing of no less than 60 electoral votes — although, counterintuitively, Maverick ends up winning Missouri against Obama and in a toss-up with Hillary even though Obama edged Hillary in the primary. Oh, those bitter, clingy, disgruntled McCainocrat Hillary supporters. The big difference between the two, though? Florida, which Clinton wins outright if she’s the nominee and McCain wins if she isn’t. Can we steal enough of the Latino vote to win, even after shutting down shamnesty last year? Si se puede!
Obama’s apparently canceled his plan to declare victory tomorrow night to avoid pissing off Her Majesty’s supporters, but despite her declaration that this is “nowhere near over,” alas, it assuredly is. Exit question: What’s left to do, except offer million-dollar bribes?
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Oh my gawd, look at that picture!
Batman 3: Return of the Joker
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 4:45 PM
It’s not over. Not until we say it’s over.
Martin on May 19, 2008 at 4:47 PM
Obama’s apparently canceled his plan to declare victory tomorrow night to avoid pissing off Her Majesty’s supporters
Dammit! I was hopin’ he’d go through with it. Chickensh!t.
Scared of a girl, how’s he gonna stand up to ‘Lil Kim or Amajamadingdong?
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 4:48 PM
If I remember correctly, Rove & CO assured us in 2006 that “WE” would hold on to the Senate, and possibly the house.
Maybe his “WE” was the “PRO-AMNESTY” Crowd. Ah, indeed “WE” did Karl.
stenwin77 on May 19, 2008 at 4:49 PM
her declaration that this is “nowhere near over,”
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 4:50 PM
I’m in Eugene, and I can tell you the Obama signs on lawns outnumber the Hildawg signs by about 20 to 1.
Alalazoo on May 19, 2008 at 4:51 PM
I WANNA SEE LAWYERS!!! LOTS AND LOTS OF RICH REPUBLICAN LAWYERS RIGHT AFTER THE CONVENTION!!! I WANNA SEE DEMOCRATS SUING DEMOCRATS OVER VOTES AND NON-VOTES AND DISENFRANCHISEMENT AND RACISM AND SEXISM AND OTHER ISMS! IF I DON’T SEE LAWYERS, THE TERRORISTS HAVE WON!!!!
Er, sorry…long day at work.
robblefarian on May 19, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Tony737 - I’d like to apologize in advance for the person who will inevitably try to correct your concept of history.
Alalazoo on May 19, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Harvey Two Face will be a villain in the upcoming Batman movie, and they said it’s going to be very creepy looking. Creepier than that? Unlikely.
And if the same creepyness, which side is the good half?
Spc Steve on May 19, 2008 at 4:53 PM
it worries me how much more i’d prefer hillary as potus to obama right now. she tacked to the right in rhetoric around the time of the Jeremiah Wright blowup on national security and look where she is now on that chart.
bob barr is hurting McCain
jp on May 19, 2008 at 4:55 PM
3 min past post and you nail AP to the wall. Good job!
jerrytbg on May 19, 2008 at 4:55 PM
The only good news here is that McCain does better against the Obamination than the Hildabeast, but he’s losing ground to both of them, and the “toss up” margin is enough to lead to a crush for the Dems if the trend continues. Better hope that Hill’s bitter supporters follow through on their threats to boycott the Messiah.
peski on May 19, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Well she won the primary portion of Washington state, didn’t she? It’s a neighboring state.
terryannonline on May 19, 2008 at 4:56 PM
I’d like to apologize in advance for the person who will inevitably try to correct your concept of history. - Alalazoo
Haha, thanks, but I have absolute faith in my fellow HotHeads, they’ll get it :-) On the other hand, there’s always that one AirHead troll out there, somewhere …
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM
if gas stays around $4 will the GOP have any chance at anything this election?
jp on May 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor only because a US Senator wasn’t able to talk to them in time.
rbj on May 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM
If I listen carefully, I can still hear the faint echoes of people crying “no shamnesty” from my radio speakers.
peski on May 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM
I detest hc, but having bho as POTUS is the most horrible thing I can think of. I would have hc over bho and his wifeee. Our country is SOL.
L
letget on May 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM
That video was creee-pay!
srhoades on May 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Dude, your not the only one. If not for a good memory of what Hill & Bill were like in the 90’s, I would also put her over McAmnesty.
brtex on May 19, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Obama is a two-face, liar, and un-American.
madmonkphotog on May 19, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Never mind I was wrong.
terryannonline on May 19, 2008 at 5:01 PM
The GOP? Is $4 gas Bush’s fault, too? Open up ANWR (thanks, Bill Clinton) to environmental-friendly horizontal drilling, or kiss your pocketbook goodbye. Alternatively, ride a bike, lower your cholesterol, improve your heart’s longevity, and wonder at the idiocy of folks paying $6 a gallon and STILL racing off as soon as the light turns green.
EHeavenlyGads on May 19, 2008 at 5:04 PM
No.
MrLynn on May 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM
My collie says:
CyberCipher on May 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM
No. This requires a really stupid and futile gesture on someone’s part.
Hollowpoint on May 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No!!
flipflop on May 19, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Damn…I didn’t see that tony737 beat me to it.
flipflop on May 19, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Hillary at the end, “I deserve this”. What have we all done to deserve this nomination process? America has sold her soul.
kirkill on May 19, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Quote of the day…
[wipes Sprite off keyboard]
fossten on May 19, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Everything is Bush’s fault; haven’t you heard?
Seriously, aside from the housing bubble burst (no subsiding), the economy is in good shape: Dow near 13K, unemployment at 5%, growth slow but no recession, 3.5% Fed rate cut yet to kick in. But gas and food prices tick people off, and they always blame the guy in power.
MrLynn on May 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM
No, but it was over when Japan was defeated on the shores of Normandy.
kirkill on May 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Oops! “no subsiding” should be “NOW subsiding”.
MrLynn on May 19, 2008 at 5:10 PM
And I just noticed today that I have stock options that are actually worth something now which have been underwater since Clinton was in office.
flipflop on May 19, 2008 at 5:11 PM
I’m in Corvallis, Oregon. Hill has about as much chance here as a chilidog has with a hungry Michael Moore nearby. The Oregonian (Portland’s fishwrap) reports this morning that 75,000 showed up for Do’hbama’s outdoor rally this weekend. Last week BillyJeff was at an elementary school down the street from where I work. I’d never had known if it weren’t for the local paper mentioning it. The Obama Kool-Ade drinkers are well hydrated.
innominatus on May 19, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Remember Operation Chaos.
indythinker on May 19, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Ask yourself, “What’s Bob Shrum’s take on the campaigns?”
Then count on the opposite to happen.
Politics made simple.
fogw on May 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM
New York is 1% from being in the “toss-up” category on the McCain-Obama map. I didn’t expect to see that.
Did I read that right?
forest on May 19, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Yeah. And the kids are still cruising the square while the twenty-somethings who mooch off their parents rent-free go out partying every night.
davidk on May 19, 2008 at 5:28 PM
I had no interest whatsoever in correcting your concept of history, but, I must admit that I’m completely missing the joke. :(
JadeNYU on May 19, 2008 at 5:32 PM
The HotAir commenter’s registration should require passing a short quiz on Animal House, Stripes, and Caddyshack
innominatus on May 19, 2008 at 5:36 PM
Is that McShamnesty on the right of the pic?
Oh wait, that’s Hillary … oh well same difference :-)
TOPV on May 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM
“Hey Barry! A thousand bucks you miss that putt!”
forest on May 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM
Hmmmm…..
Toga party in Denver during the Convention?
I’m game…
Romeo13 on May 19, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Run, don’t walk, run to the video store and rent Animal House.
EJDolbow on May 19, 2008 at 5:44 PM
My German Shepherd puppy bit my teenage son yesterday in the crotch area (playing) and I yelled, “Nixon”
The boy thinks I have gone over the bend.
EJDolbow on May 19, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Tony37 — Great reset. Belushi was outstanding in that one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO6LVE_P-A8
Now, what act of stupidity is called for here?? Hillary’s just the girl to answer that!
EconomicNeocon on May 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
I must say, I wasn’t crazy about it.
malan89 on May 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM
If memory serves, Rove was wrong — almost fatally wrong — about electoral votes in 2000 and 2004. I seem to recall a prediction of 316 in 2000, which is why Bush stopped campaigning the Sunday before the election and Gore almost won Florida.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on May 19, 2008 at 5:52 PM
It doesn’t really matter what you think, now does it?
The poster to whom my response was posted wanted to know the source of the joke.
EJDolbow on May 19, 2008 at 5:52 PM
“NNNNNOOONAN!”
It’s little wonder that Jesus Obama attracted 65k in Eugene, the place is touted as the ‘headquarters’ for the anarchist movement. I once worked as a cop in Medford and we constantly had to deal with the communal-wannabes who didn’t really understand what anarchy meant.
Bishop on May 19, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Does it really matter since he won? You are absolved of over shooting the winning percentage if YOU WIN.
It is when you lose that becomes an issue.
EJDolbow on May 19, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Some guy in another thread thought I was laughing at him yesterday (I wasn’t.) To prove my point, I assured him that my humor was sophomoric at best, and stopped at Animal House and Caddyshack (forgot Stripes– how could I!!) Now I know why I like HA.
JiangxiDad on May 19, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Wait, did SNL just do something kewl, funny, and intelligent?
- The Cat
P.S. Or is it that I watched Scrubs one too many times?
MirCat on May 19, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Ah yeah, Animal House, well, that was about 30 thousand brain cells ago!
kirkill on May 19, 2008 at 6:02 PM
P.P.S. Yeah, harder on Clinton and made Obama come out glowing.
MirCat on May 19, 2008 at 6:02 PM
…cuz when the going gets tough…
foxforce91 on May 19, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Dude, chill. I was just saying I didn’t like the movie.
malan89 on May 19, 2008 at 6:12 PM
Barry pouts about ‘distractions’…
Hill throws a lamp…
Bluto and Howard Dean yell “YEEAARRR!” and run from the room.
innominatus on May 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Jade, it’s ok, you’re young and I was qouting an old movie, so it’s cool, but on the other hand, another poster’s dog got the joke…
Cipher’s collie says:
“Don’t stop him now. He’s on a roll.
Hehe, just kiddin’ Jade. It’s a line from ‘Animal House’, one of the most often qouted movie lines ever. Sorry it took so long to get back to ya, the baby woke up.
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 6:24 PM
Well, I know how one evening will be spent in San Diego!
RushBaby on May 19, 2008 at 6:42 PM
McCain/Rudy?
mikeyboss on May 19, 2008 at 6:43 PM
Okay, everyone freeze. We must do nothing… nothing, to prevent the Messiah from being annointed, and the Hildabeast slain. Then we can rejoice and party. Pass it along.
drunyan8315 on May 19, 2008 at 7:23 PM
I am a lawyer and a Republican - where do I sign??
HawaiiLwyr on May 19, 2008 at 8:21 PM
Two-face, you mean. Batman fans get it.
Mojave Mark on May 19, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Per this related Huffpo piece, Oregon democrats represent typical white working class folk. The writer has clearly never been in Oregon.
Oregon liberals want more than anything to be seen as real progressives. Oregonians are so full of themselves, they’re natural Obama supporters. It has absolutely nothing to do with race or economics, and everything to do with the smug levels over Oregon’s I-5 corridor.
Alazoo, what horrible mistake did you make to find yourself in Eugene? If you need, you are more than welcome to seek refuge up here in Corvallis. We have fewer hippies, but more importantly they don’t come anywhere near my fraternity.
PaisleyCow on May 19, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Two-face, you mean. - Mark
Well I was referring to the Hillary half, she looks like the Joker, but yeah together they make Two-Face.
Tony737 on May 19, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Answer: Who are Hajj Amin al-Husayni (B.H. Obama), Saul Alinsky (H.R. Clinton) and John Dewey (J. McC)
Question: For $10,000 these are the true heroes of all three 2008 Presidential Candidates.
All three Socialists all three ready to doom American exceptionalism.
SeniorD on May 19, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Is Fred Armisen half-white enough to play half a half-white person?
chriscoolc on May 19, 2008 at 9:36 PM
Is that anything like a kidney stone?
platypus on May 19, 2008 at 9:40 PM
(Forget it; he’s rolling…)
Jaibones on May 20, 2008 at 12:44 AM
Hilary in 7
2Tru2Tru on May 20, 2008 at 1:13 AM
You guys still forget that Hillary isn’t panicing and Obama is acting scared. Why? Because she has the superdelagates in her pocket, despite a few college students “jumping ship”. She had a backup plan all along.
Hillary is the nominee, folks. Obama is the one who won’t conceed, not Hillary.
papabryant on May 20, 2008 at 4:29 AM