Anticlimax in West Virginia tonight
posted at 1:00 pm on May 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Will tonight’s primary in West Virginia produce drama, suspense, and command the national attention? Heck, even CNN can’t work up any sense of spectacle for the contest. Hillary Clinton will likely swamp out Barack Obama by wider margins than anything yet seen in the race — and even if she does, it won’t change a thing:
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s expected victory in West Virginia Tuesday is unlikely to derail Sen. Barack Obama’s path to the Democratic nomination, but it could renew questions about his ability to draw the support of white, blue-collar voters.
As polling places across West Virginia opened at 6:30 a.m., Clinton had a 40-point lead, according to an average of the most recent public opinion polls, and she is expected to be in Charleston, West Virginia, Tuesday night to celebrate what should be her large margin of victory.
With a relatively large percentage of older voters and blue-collar workers, a dearth of upscale voters and a tiny African-American population, West Virginia appears to be a perfect demographic fit for Clinton.
But even a landslide victory in tiny West Virginia, would bring only 28 delegates to Clinton. That may be too little, too late to keep Clinton in the hunt for the nomination.
No one’s even bothering to manage expectations for this poll tonight. Forty points? What about the humiliation if she only wins by 25 or so? The horror!
I rather doubt the margin will exceed 25 points, but either way, it doesn’t change a couple of immutable truths. First, Obama will win the nomination, and second, McCain will win West Virginia in the fall. Much has been made about no successful candidate since Woodrow Wilson losing this state in a general election, but the battleground states will be elsewhere. If Democrats can turn Ohio, they won’t need West Virginia, and if Republicans can keep Ohio and pick up Pennsylvania, West Virginia won’t help Obama anyway.
Just for fun, I predict Hillary will win tonight, 64-36.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages:
So no live blogging the results tonight?
lorien1973 on May 13, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Hillary gets 100% of Caucasion = 95% Drats
Obama gets 100% of American African = 5% Drats
el Vaquero on May 13, 2008 at 1:05 PM
I’ll miss our drinking games.
RushBaby on May 13, 2008 at 1:06 PM
Ditto
Kini on May 13, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Me thinks the drinking games have already begun.
12thman on May 13, 2008 at 1:11 PM
P.S. Umm what is Terry showing her?
MirCat on May 13, 2008 at 1:12 PM
love the sexual implications in that picture! haaaaa
Drunk Report on May 13, 2008 at 1:12 PM
P.P.S. If I had a Pet Collie it would prolly say, “His little delegate”
MirCat on May 13, 2008 at 1:13 PM
I assume the media’s going to do a “disenfranchisement” angle like they’ve been doing when McCain doesn’t get 100% of the vote. Right?
Isn’t West Virginia the state that keeps electing Kleagle Byrd?
amerpundit on May 13, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Watch Ed’s Headline/photo combinations. He’s subtle but can be razor funny.
RushBaby on May 13, 2008 at 1:17 PM
Where did our Denver-burning crowd go?
Limerick on May 13, 2008 at 1:18 PM
No live bloggin’ tonight? Nooooooo. I just stocked up on beer!
petefrt on May 13, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Unless I miss my guess Jimmy Carter won West Virginia in 1980.
But West Virginia isnt a safe bet for the Republicans. There are areas there that are vrey pro democrat and it has to do with theCoal Mines and the miner’s Unions having a lot of say.
But I still dont think Obama would do well in West Virgnia for President as West Virginians are conservative in Foreign Policy.
William Amos on May 13, 2008 at 1:19 PM
She is only delaying the inevitable. I can already hear the fat lady warming up.
pilamaye on May 13, 2008 at 1:19 PM
It was one of the 6 he won that year.
amerpundit on May 13, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Caption: “What a big. . . margin. Still won’t help you, what with your personality.”
rbj on May 13, 2008 at 1:26 PM
If Barack is such a great candidate why does he keep losing?
How many Primaries has he lost recently?
Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Indiana.. about to lose West Virginia.
Chakra Hammer on May 13, 2008 at 1:33 PM
With respect to the majority of West Virginians, they are slightly left of Rush Limbaugh.
- Pro God
- Pro Gun
- Pro Life
- Anti Gay
- Strong Military (highest per capita enlistment)
- Pro Coal
If it were not for organized labor (%15) and entitlements, it would be a slam dunk for about any conservative candidate. We are generational Democrats. We don’t know anything different. Given the national litmus test, 65% of our state would register conservative.
All politics are local.
All politics are local.
natesnake on May 13, 2008 at 1:36 PM
West Virginian’s have an identity problem.
Also, I consider my list above to be 95% accurate. Those are WV Democrats (a lot of racist homophobes). I fortunately do not subscribe to their views.
natesnake on May 13, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Yup. I’ve got one word for you:
PORK
So long as Uncle Bob keeps the gravy train running, the voters will continue supplying the track.
I’m not a Pork guy nor have I ever voted for Byrd, but it’s hard to argue the hundreds of miles of roads and bridges his federal ear marks have built. Without them, we would be in the Stone Age.
natesnake on May 13, 2008 at 1:44 PM
If he’s not, why in the samhell are we all atwitter over him? Unless McCain picks up some serious momentum, we are dust.
Cindy McCain’s negatives will top Michelle Obama’s. McCain will be painted as Bush 44. We will be branded racists, xenophobes and sexist warmongers.
Gas prices will shoot up another 50 cents and Cheney will be blamed. The War effort will be widely mocked and panned…just as it has been all along
Goodnight Irene!
The Race Card on May 13, 2008 at 1:47 PM
That’s not possible. Have you read Cindy’s positives? Sadly, we only go with negatives in politics these days.
kirkill on May 13, 2008 at 2:19 PM
I know I shouldn’t say this, but doesn’t that picture scream for the caption, “I’ve got new legs! I’ve got new legs!”
DrMagnolias on May 13, 2008 at 2:35 PM
Scoundrel in a pantsuit.
Hillary is less Presidential than even John Kerry. She deserves our contempt, not our votes. Because she has openly displayed her contempt for the electorate, in her assumption that we are foolish enough to choose her to be our President.
Does anyone remember why more Governors are elected President over Senators? That’s right-they have experience governing, not just in debating issues with 99 other egotists.
I say…when the Republicans meet in the Twin Cities for their convention, they should do a gut check and ask whether they shouldn’t draft Romney, put his name up for consideration. I think that,if given a choice, most Republican delegates would flock to Romney over McCain.
I know how I would vote.
Doug on May 13, 2008 at 2:37 PM
My e-friend, you said “Goodnight” before the fat lady sang. This is by far not over yet.
Entelechy on May 13, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Now THIS POST got my attention. I am in favor of this.
fossten on May 13, 2008 at 2:55 PM
If you want to know why Romney didn’t get the nomination, that sums it up right there. His supporters have no understanding of politics.
Brainster on May 13, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Tonights theme music for Hillary
is Guy Lombardo’s rendition of the
Godfather movie soundtrack,ah yes
screeching screaming violins of doom!
I’m gonna walk the plank on this one!
HilRod- 40%
Hope— 60%
canopfor on May 13, 2008 at 3:13 PM
She’ll be standing next to Barak before June 3. Aides will be passing out S’mores to the crowd.
Limerick on May 13, 2008 at 3:30 PM
I voted for Romney today.
I figured, what the hell. Couldn’t hurt.
natesnake on May 13, 2008 at 3:49 PM
Hillary would be smart to get out of the race after a big WV victory. Will she?
thuja on May 13, 2008 at 3:52 PM
I still think she has something up her sleeve. Some dirt or something on Obama that she’ll spring right before the convention when he won’t have time to put it behind him.
Guardian on May 13, 2008 at 4:28 PM
HAA!! HAAA!! HA!! I get it! They might even pass out a few oreo’s.
kcd on May 13, 2008 at 5:37 PM
IS that a margin of victory in your pants, or are you just glad to see me?
exhelodrvr on May 13, 2008 at 5:47 PM
I’m glad you did. Seriously. McCain needs to know that he can’t take your vote for granted.
At this point, with 93% of Precincts Reportng:
Candidate # of votes % of total
McCain 83,396 75.94%
Huckabee 11,326 10.31%
Paul 5,564 5.07%
Romney 4,861 4.43%
Giuliani 2,657 2.42%
Red Pill on May 14, 2008 at 12:38 AM
Comment pages: