Atlantic’s electoral map: McCain 245, Obama 221, toss-up 72
posted at 7:55 pm on May 12, 2008 by Allahpundit
Sounds comfy until you realize that 13 of Maverick’s 245 come from Virginia, which has been trending blue with Jim Webb and Tim Kaine, is certain to keep trending blue with Mark Warner this fall, and was the site of one of Obama’s most impressive wins, a 64-35 demolition of Her Majesty on February 12 that saw him win by landslides across all ideological groups, including 69-30 among independents. Put Virginia in his column and he leads McCain 234-232. I’m nervous about Missouri too, which Ambinder also gives to Maverick even though Obama surprised Hillary there with one of his few battleground state wins.
Among the states credited to Obama, the only obvious one that McCain might steal is New Hampshire. Otherwise it’s all about Pennsylvania and Ohio as the toss-ups, which means Maverick needs to take a second look at Tom Ridge, pro-choice or not, and Obama needs to take a look at Ted Strickland, especially given the racial undertones to Hillary’s support there (but not just there, perhaps). Assuming Virginia and Ohio break for Obama and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for McCain, it’s … 257-250 for our guy with Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Colorado to decide it. If Pennsylvania breaks for Obama in this scenario instead, he’s at 271 and planning the inauguration.
Exit question: 269-269?
Blowback
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Vntgrose:
So why blame McCain for policies that have been well established by both parties for many years?
Terrye on May 12, 2008 at 9:22 PM
I lived in Ohio for 10 years, that state is not a toss-up, not in the least. Neither is Pennslyvania.
Theworldisnotenough on May 12, 2008 at 9:23 PM
I have often wondered if illegal immigration would ever have become such an issue if it were not for subsidized water. Once upon a time a great deal of the American southwest was a desert. Even California was dry, then came the water, then people, then the labor….
Unintended consequences.
Terrye on May 12, 2008 at 9:26 PM
So I can blame you when genocide breaks out in Iraq and AQ is able to rebuild itself. Cool.
If you think most Republicans like Grahamnesty, you don’t know many Republicans. And yes, Buddy Witherspoon is pretty bad. But, Graham is an incumbent and has a strong military background (this is big in SC). It would be hard to come up with a decent candidate to beat him in a primary. He’s a good guy, I just don’t like many of his policy positions.
malan89 on May 12, 2008 at 9:29 PM
major candidates are abducted by klingons.
MB4 on May 12,2008 at 9:19PM.
MB4: Too late! Obama already has use of Farrhkan’s
mother ship! Ha ha.
canopfor on May 12, 2008 at 9:30 PM
One point to add, if you do decide not to vote McCain, and I am on the fence myself, make sure you find a third party candidate to vote for who does represent your views, or hell, vote for Thomas Sowell.
If there is any point to making McVain lose because he has spit on conservatives one to many times, it has to be made in an obvious fashion.
Otherwise the MSM will cover it as if BO converted even conservatives to his cause, and the Republicans will draw all the wrong lessons…
18-1 on May 12, 2008 at 9:33 PM
The voters need to take a second look at staying home if he decides that. Seriously. And I’ve been for McCain since shortly after he clinched, but come now, this is asking a bit much. The straw that breaks the camel’s back. Not happening.
OneGyT on May 12, 2008 at 9:36 PM
I hear ya. He has to pick a conservative if he wants to win.
malan89 on May 12, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Obama’s guns and bitter comments will have more States leaning McCain’s way.
danking70 on May 12, 2008 at 9:53 PM
only one problem with your analysis sherlock
that was pre Wright
windansea on May 12, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Forgot the pre-Wright, “the Government Lied!!”, comments as Windansea noted.
If Hillary crushes Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky, we’ll have a good sense of which way us flyover States are feeling now.
danking70 on May 12, 2008 at 10:00 PM
I think New Jersey is going to go for McCain. They like moderate Republicans there. Voted for ‘em for governor twice: Kean and Whitman.
Meryl Yourish on May 12, 2008 at 10:09 PM
It all depends on McCain’s outreach to Hispanic voters. They’ve become a big part of the electorate in NJ.
malan89 on May 12, 2008 at 10:10 PM
It’s too bad the American people can’t figure it out for themselves without the interference of a biased news media. The news media was objective in 1941, what the hell has happened since then?
Travis1 on May 12, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Terry, I’ve tried to keep a civil discourse regarding my opinions of the current field of candiates for POTUS and pleae note that I have not once attempted to make any “jokes” regarding your nick or handle. Since you continue to do so with mine I will no longer lower myself to continue a conversation with you. Have a very nice day though!
VeNTilator NuRSE or vntnrse- usually considered to be a nurse caring for patients who are forced to live in ventilator dependant situations being unable to breathe for themselves, hence a trusted caregiver-a handle that I’m known by in many areas of the internet.
Vntnrse on May 12, 2008 at 10:13 PM
I think you are right. And if you thought this up, I’m deeply impressed! Else could you provide some source for this idea? (I promise to still be impressed if you give a source.)
thuja on May 12, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Farrhkan’s mother ship is no match for a Klingon Warbird. Or so I am told.
MB4 on May 12, 2008 at 10:22 PM
McCain ain’t winning PA.
doubleplusundead on May 12, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Sigh, Obama ain’t winning PA. Dammit.
doubleplusundead on May 12, 2008 at 10:24 PM
I have to do this.
malan89 on May 12, 2008 at 10:27 PM
My dear fellow, you shall keep watch in the street. I’ll do the analysis part.
Holmes on May 12, 2008 at 10:27 PM
I think McCain wins in a landslide after the GOP machine is done grinding up Obama. Just play the video of him saying he’s been to 57 states across the entire country, and, well…
Seixon on May 12, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Looks like you had also best go keep watch in the street. Windansea is waiting for you there. He can keep watch in the one direction and you can keep watch in the other.
Holmes on May 12, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Allah, that’s the Atlantic. Tied into the view that Dems do not need the “stupid white guys” as Eleanor Clift essentially said. “Yesterday’s voters” instead of the hip/cool “tomorrow’s voters” of Obama.
Well, Obama has appeal to the professional class, Blacks (90%) and college kids. With gaffe a minute on Israel, Iran, etc. All self-inflicted. As was Wright. Bitter, etc. Obama’s cult-fad stuff peaked too soon. Yes he has Sanjaya-like fans, who lurve him, and have special moments when he’s in jeans. But that’s so yesterday. As forgotten as William Hung.
Really, does anyone think that Obama can win with just the Professional class? Explicitly making enemies out of the white working class? Since that’s the Dem coalition.
Obama has IL, a few other states, that’s it. He might not even win CA. Note he’ll never get appreciable amounts of Hispanic voters since the conflict between Blacks and Hispanics are not going away.
whiskey_199 on May 12, 2008 at 10:40 PM
When reading polls, please keep in mind that thanks to the focus on the Democratic primary the liberal media juggernaut has not paid much attention to McCain. Once CNN, NBC, etc. turn their guns on him you can expect those points to drop. His only hope is to clean Obama’s clock on something like a debate where he actually has a voice that will be heard by people who don’t watch Fox news.
Darth Executor on May 12, 2008 at 11:16 PM
You are telling me to shut up and calling me a crybaby too. Just because John McCain is utterly the wrong candidate for my values. Screw you!!!!
My candidate couldn’t win this year because the fix was in by people like you. The liberal wing of the party saw the numbers and figured out that the trends were working against sticking to real Republican values of fiscal conservatism, smaller government, and self-determination. They crafted a primary system that supported getting a faux-Republican like cranky old bastard elevated over more legitimate candidates. It was supposed to be Rudy but cranky old bastard was a good second choice.
I’m here vocal in my opposition to political traitors like McCain because I want a real conservative choice. As it is there is virtually no difference between Obama, Clinton, and cranky old bastard. All are equally repugnant and the wrong choice for America. The only outlet and hope is forcing cranky old bastard to choose a real Republican as his running mate. I intend to make it clear that McCain’s scorn of all social conservatives and evangelicals is an unacceptable position. At the very least it assures some possiblility that the next real Republican candidate will be true to the party unlike the Judas at the top of the ticket.
highhopes on May 12, 2008 at 11:18 PM
That’s a waste of a good conservative. McCain doesn’t deserve a real conservative in his cabinet; he will be muzzled and forced to get behind policies that are going to destroy any future that real conservative wants to have AS a conservative. Let him pick one of his cronies like Graham, or Huckaphony.
austinnelly on May 12, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Yeah…I was posting at my crapblog about McCain, and said McCain when I meant Obama.
Ugh…couldn’t it have been a Rickroll?
doubleplusundead on May 13, 2008 at 12:23 AM
I really feel the full impact of recent gaffe’s by Obama (gaffes meaning he let his REAL feelings out) will bite him firmly in the behind during the national election. There is NO WAY flyover country will vote for someone who truly thinks they are hicks for owning guns and going to church and “bitter” about their lives. He DOESN’T GET IT!!! It is not surprising he doesn’t get it. He didn’t even spend his formative years living as an AMERICAN kid!!! He was living in a muslim country with his muslim step dad who was married to his WHITE hippie mother. Obama is very disconnected from everyday Americans.
karenhasfreedom on May 13, 2008 at 12:40 AM
By the way, I am also a very disappointed conservative who will HAVE to vote for McCain because I can not stomach the thought of wasting 4,000 lives of those fighting to keep us free. I can’t stomach the thought of 2 or more Ruth Bader Ginsbergs being appointed to the Supreme Court.
Because those are even more important to our country’s future, I have to tolerate a very flawed candidate and will have to fight his open borders fetish with every breath I take. We will have to take this anti ILLEGAL alien fight down to the local level, similar to Oklahoma and just made life too difficult for illegals at the local level. I read that Missouri is trying pass a law proving citizenship to register to vote. Terrific step in the right direction.
karenhasfreedom on May 13, 2008 at 12:45 AM
Thank GOD McCain is in the lead. Now we can hope that the march to socialism will be a little slower. Just a tad. REJOICE conservatives!! You’ve nominated a slower socialist!! YAAAAYYYYYY!!!!!!
RWLA on May 13, 2008 at 7:11 AM
Well done!!!!!!!!! Socialism is in the lead no matter who wins. Great job, you “conservatives” in the GOP. GREAT F**KING JOB!!!!!!!!
RWLA on May 13, 2008 at 7:13 AM
Vntnrse:
I work for a home health care agency. I care for the sick and elderly, the quads, the people with terminal cancer. I have watched a lot of people die.
So by all means be civil.
I have also had three family members fight in Iraq, for more than one tour. The thought that people who keep telling me they are the conservative base would just blow off their service makes me feel a little uncivil myself.
Terrye on May 13, 2008 at 7:17 AM
malan:
I have heard people say that guys like Graham are not real Republicans, and yet Republicans keep electing them.
I moved to Indiana from Oklahoma a long time ago, but Dick Lugar has been in politics here as long as I can remember. He is a moderate Republican and very indicative of how the majority of Republicans in this area look at issues. He is not a firebrand conservative. The last one of those we had was John Hostettler in Congress {8th District} and he got beat by the blue dog Democrat Brad Ellsworth.
Terrye on May 13, 2008 at 7:20 AM
I wonder if we’re going to see another Jerry Ford election. Oh wait, that’s right, Jerry Ford never won a national election. Well, that would be fine by me.
Instead of 49 state blowout for McCain, you have to wonder if he’ll get blown out by 49 states.
Snake307 on May 13, 2008 at 7:23 AM
highhopes:
Are you 12? I am not telling you to shut up. I am just saying the horse is out of the barn. I keep hearing all these people carrying on about this now that the voting is pretty much done, but when it mattered….
Democrats outnumbered Republicans voting by about 2 to 1. If this was so important to the base and if the base was robbed, where the hell was everybody? Why weren’t they voting for someone like Fred?
Terrye on May 13, 2008 at 7:25 AM
Also have the GOP run ads featuring his anti-american big-mouthed wife’s sound bites. Michelle will be the nail in his coffin!!!!!
Winebabe on May 13, 2008 at 7:28 AM
BTW…..She is a disgusting person. This woman taps out in hate for white people. Just look at her twisted face.
Winebabe on May 13, 2008 at 7:30 AM
The truth is McCain is one of the most popular politicians in the country.I know a lot of conservatives do not want to hear that but it is true. And he might be one of the few Republicans who could win right now.
I voted for Bush and I still support him, but I noticed that a lot of conservatives were more than willing to stab him in the back when his numbers went down. They worked side by side with liberal Democrats to make his life as difficult as possible knowing full well his back was against the wall on the war.
Oh but yeah, he sold us out to the terrorists and the Mexicans. I remember now.
Terrye on May 13, 2008 at 7:31 AM
Your count is off, Obama has 7 more states to count then McCain…and you are not counting on the Hillary/Barr ticket.
right2bright on May 13, 2008 at 9:44 AM
I’m not sure about Indiana. I think it’s probably safely in McCain’s column.
My wife is a democrat (yeah, I know, but I love her) and she is a big Hillary supporter. She has said that she will not vote for Obama if he’s the choice for the democrats. I can’t believe that she is the only one.
Now, she won’t vote for McCain either, but maybe there will be enough people like her that it’ll severely dampen the vote for Obama.
Indiana has almost always been a solidly red state, and based on the discontent in the democratic party, I don’t think it will change this year.
Nineball on May 13, 2008 at 9:50 AM
I think this is a very saavy point. Right now, I’m looking for a good conservative to take one for the team and launch a 3rd party or write in effort soley to make a point to the idiots who nominated McCain. And forget about Paul and Barr, they are nuts, both of them.
james23 on May 13, 2008 at 10:01 AM
When things are going bad, I am going to read this post over and over again…it will show me that I can live happily not facing reality.
With 40% of the Ca population being hispanic, where did this “population” come from? Doubled in the last 10 years, from less then 8 million to nearly 16-20 million.
In 2003 Berkeley projected Ca would have 40% Hispanic in twenty years…
right2bright on May 13, 2008 at 10:04 AM
Whoever thinks that Obama is going to be better on border security than McCain can’t think straight and refuses to see reality.
There’s new propaganda out to slime Cindy and promote Michelle in a popularity contest:
Stephen Dinan and Joseph Curl
The Washington Times, 5/13/08
These dweebs think they are on to something, taking their own polls to show that Marge Simpson ranks higher than Cindy McCain in America, and that Michelle Obama ranks much higher than Cindy McCain in America.
They want to equate Mrs. McCain’s willingness to be better known to their right to pry into her personal finances. Since she’s filed separate tax returns for nearly 30 years from her husband, they need to drop their “right to know” charade. Are these writers still juvenile, fresh from college, because if this is the best research they can do, LOL! They do a story on Cindy McCain without an interview!
maverick muse on May 13, 2008 at 10:36 AM
I just moved to a toss-up! Yay! My vote matters more than yours! Now if I can just discourage those Boulder CO citizens from showing up…
craig on May 13, 2008 at 10:39 AM
From MEDIA MATTERS 11/10/05:
maverick muse on May 13, 2008 at 10:43 AM
He’s not my guy.
fossten on May 13, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Fixed it for you. This seems to be a common problem these days, spewing liberal talking points, even by mistake.
fossten on May 13, 2008 at 11:49 AM
karenhasfreedom makes a good point about Obama’s level of American identity that I have often considered but not articulated as well as she has.
Given his upbringing, Obama never had an opportunity to internalize Americanism until he took the decision to form his self-image under the tutelege of Rev. Wright, surely one of the worst possible sources on the subject of what it means to be an American. Even during his schooling in Hawaii, he was in an elite environment. His only exposure to mainstreet America has come through his carefully orchestrated campaign, thus his stereotypical comments about guns, God, and the bitterness of “typical white people”. That is what he knows of America, and he knows it from Rev. Wright.
I would not want to have a lot of money riding on the ability of this candidate for President to pass a US citizenship test.
drunyan8315 on May 13, 2008 at 12:11 PM
One more thing to remember:
Some polls are over-sampling African-Americans, as the question of their vote became part of the story.
Sekhmet on May 13, 2008 at 1:45 PM
No surprise to me….. and it will get worse for McCain because he has shunned the conservative base and continues to do so…. global warming tour…. sheesh!!!! I fully expect McCain to get trounced in the general election, then with Obama and a leftist Congress….. Katy bar the door! God heop us, no one else will.
ultracon on May 13, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Barack can just pull out his extra 7 secret states at the last minute to win.
McCain -not wanting to show a possibile “senior moment”- won’t contest their existence.
Michelle will be made Ambassador to Gaza.
Rev. Wright, Chaplain of the Senate.
Bill Ayers, Secretary of Education.
Bernadine Dohrn, Attorney General
The Future According to Barry Hussein Obama.
profitsbeard on May 13, 2008 at 5:39 PM
Hmm, as expected, I’m in a tossup state (Colorado).
Wait, damn. Does that mean I’m going to be getting those damn phone calls every week again?
I may have to turn off my phone for a couple months. Or just start lying to pollsters.
Who to support in the polls? I’ve been hearing mixed signals from Barr, and my research of the Constitution party wasn’t really promising…
Hell with it. Zombie Reagan 2008. Nobody else seems to measure up to Reagan, and thats after he died.
gekkobear on May 14, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Really? I’ve been upset with him since he violated his oath of office to defend and uphold the Constitution. Deciding his whim was more important he worked in Congress to pass a law abridging freedom of speech (oddly the Constitution is pretty clear on this issue).
Somehow I don’t see us getting the 10th Amendment back, and I’m not exactly feeling warm and fuzzy to a candidate who believes that Constitutionally protected freedoms can be whittled down by law.
So in 2003 I stated I wouldn’t support McCain for dogcatcher, much less any higher office. Has he changed his position on free speech and Constitutional freedoms?
Then why should I change my position on supporting him?
Oh, because he was in a POW camp, and therefore has “absolute moral authority” to violate the Constitution as he sees fit? Was that your point?
Or would you like to state that McCain-Feingold doesn’t abridge Freedom of speech?
Or instead are you going to redefine the word “of”?
Seriously, if you’re going to ignore all but one of McCain’s faults (and misrepresent that one) I can’t see why you don’t think anyone will mention the others.
Does Carbon cap-and-trade really sound like a good plan? Yeah, crippling the economy is always a winning plan.
Closing Gitmo and bringing them to U.S. Courts? Giving the terrorists (and not just their lawyers) access to the intel that got them caught? Well that’ll help win the GWOT, because the one thing we don’t need in this war is quality intel.
Amnesty for lawbreakers (if the law was illegally entering the country) with a benefit of free citizenship? What laws am I allowed to break and then rewarded for breaking? Or is that benefit only given to non-citizens?
I’m not done, but I will go ahead and stop here. Exactly how much weight should having been a POW count for? I didn’t realize it should make any difference in his policies or positions.
Maybe, if we’re making calls based on non-policy determinations and ignoring the actual positions I should vote for someone based on their race or gender. Makes as much sense as voting based on their previous occupation or having been a POW.
Unless being a POW gives you impressive political credentials and qualifications that I’m unaware of, then it doesn’t carry more weight for me than gender or race.
Although to be honest, I’d have forgiven 2-3 of that list if he hadn’t crapped on the Constitution and his Oath of Office. Woulda coulda shoulda aside though, he did.
And, since he’s shown no real interest in outreach to Conservatives; with 6 months to go to November… I’m willing to bet that list gets longer.
gekkobear on May 14, 2008 at 1:17 PM
This is getting nauseous. Why don’t all you conservative “Republicans” start about 12 new parties and then you can ruin this country by electing Obuma while you keep pontificating about how righteous you all are. Really forgiving lot. While McSame did this and McLame did that and on and on and on. United we win, divided we fall.
AReadyRepub on May 14, 2008 at 10:03 PM
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