No, there isn’t a significant vote against McCain in the primaries
posted at 2:35 pm on May 7, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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During the last three primaries, some people have begun to focus on the results of the now-moot Republican primaries as a means of determining support for John McCain. Despite the fact that McCain has already clinched the nomination and the motivation for his supporters to vote for him has almost disappeared, pundits insist that McCain has to hit a ridiculously high threshold of votes in order to demonstrate that he can unify the party. Even when he hits the mark, some insist on reporting the rest as an anti-McCain movement. Eric Pfeiffer at CQ Politics reminds them of some recent history:
The Drudge Report provides two links this morning to Republican primary results in North Carolina and Indiana. In headlines meant to convey intra-party dissatisfaction with John McCain, Drudge declares:
27% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS AGAINST MCCAIN IN NORTH CAROLINA…
23% GO AGAINST MCCAIN IN INDIANA…
A similarly gleeful tone was taken against McCain by liberal bloggers and some in the media after the Pennsylvania primary, in which McCain received 73 percent of the vote, compared to 16 percent for Ron Paul and 11 percent for Mike Huckabee. ….
But the question is, are his primary results really that different compared to what George W. Bush received after effectively wrapping up the nomination against McCain in 2000?
And the answer to that question is … no. After clinching the nomination against McCain, Bush’s numbers bounced around from 64% to 83%. In Pennsylvania, Bush scored an almost identical percentage in 2000 (72.47%) as did McCain in 2008 (73%). No one at the time considered that a protest vote against Bush, even though McCain in 2000 won a much higher percentage of the vote (22%) than did Ron Paul in 2008 (16%).
The only people really pushing this meme are Paul supporters. They want to make an argument that they have a national movement that is gaining momentum and could take McCain off the ticket at the convention. If that were true, their enthusiasm would create a much higher percentage of the Republican vote in contests where McCain supporters have little reason to come to the polls. Instead, in Indiana and North Carolina where Republicans crossed over in large numbers to vote in the Democratic primaries, Paul couldn’t even make it into double digits.
What we are seeing are typical voting behaviors for meaningless primaries. It’s a lot safer to assuage one’s conscience with a protest vote when the results have no impact on the race, and since fewer of the nominee’s supporters vote, the protest contingent tends to look larger than it really is. I suppose it makes for a mildly interesting bit of campaign trivia, but a movement it certainly is not.
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And Hussein hasn’t got a Chinaman’s chance of winning PA in the general election. That cancels out NC.
Akzed on May 7, 2008 at 2:40 PM
That’s how I see it too.
If only 25% of my students hated me I’d figure I was doing fairly well!
Bob's Kid on May 7, 2008 at 2:41 PM
We’re a big, bitter tent!
mymanpotsandpans on May 7, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Well Ed, until there is a Independent Conservative on the Ballot… who the heck am I going to vote for?
Sorry I am no Paulnut… I miss Fred. :(
upinak on May 7, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Paul supporters; they won’t want to support him when they find out the Republican convention is the same weekend as the International Star Trek convention…
right2bright on May 7, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Remember that Richard Pryor bit when his friend goes, “Hey Rich! Fifty million dudes waitin’ on yo ass outside! I can help you with two of ‘em!”
mymanpotsandpans on May 7, 2008 at 2:45 PM
What we are seeing here is a deliberate advocation by Drudge for Obama.
bnelson44 on May 7, 2008 at 2:45 PM
The numbers don’t mean anything right now, but the passion of the Obama supporters vs. that of McCain supporters right now will be a factor. Obama’s backers showed last night that neither Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, nor the wife’s negative statements will dull their fanaticism for him — they are going to turn out in November in a positive way for Barak, even if they have nothing more than platitudes to justify their reasons for voting for him. McCain’s main attraction right now is he’s not Obama or Hillary. To win both the swing voters and conservatives who are expecting another stab in the back between now and Election Day, he’s going to have to provide some positive reasons for backing him, and show that what he says isn’t just bogus campaign talk.
jon1979 on May 7, 2008 at 2:45 PM
_
_
Heh.
_
“Live long and Paulsper” ???
SlimyBill on May 7, 2008 at 2:46 PM
I voted specifically against McCain in my Oklahoma primary; I voted for Duncan Hunter even though he’d dropped out a day or two before. And I’ll go third party in the general, which is the only really satisfying way for my conscience to be assuaged because that’s the only time my vote has a chance of counting.
What are the odds that those Ron Paul supporters are going to vote for McCain in November, versus the odds that the McCainiacs would vote for Bush in 2000? If they’re lower, then it’s a problem, especially in states like Ohio, Missouri, and Florida.
But what do I know; I took Zogby’s results in NC to mean that Hillary was going to lose by only a couple of points. Who expected him to be right, ever?
elladeon on May 7, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Well maybe all those Republicans who participated in Operation Chaos would have voted for McCain if they’d voted GOP…
radjah shelduck on May 7, 2008 at 2:48 PM
LOL.. good one!
upinak on May 7, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Well then, if McCain has such big love then why are we even talking about this as an issue?
McCain has barely begun to campaign for the presidency; he has a long, long way to go. And the MSM is so in the tank for Obama that it is going to get really, really ugly. If I were him, I wouldn’t take anything for granted.
BigD on May 7, 2008 at 2:53 PM
I’m not with McCain on immigration and a few other items, but I’d like to get 75% as a politician, on any day. That w/b way cool. It’s easy for the others to play Kindergarten, when the decision is already made.
Entelechy on May 7, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Very silly headlines concerning a phenomenon that happens every election cycle.
I voted for my guy Rudy in the Maryland primary, knowing full well I will swallow hard and vote for the Mav in Nov.
I did it realizing the delegates tied to my guy will vote for McCain. It was just a way to show my preference. I can only speak for myself, but I have no intetion of sitting this election out. Yeah, McCain aint my first preference, but would I rather live with him, instead of the messiah or the hildabeast? You betcha.
themistocles on May 7, 2008 at 2:56 PM
John Podhoretz, Contentions
mymanpotsandpans on May 7, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Protest votes in the primaries after the results are set in stone are not necessarily an indication of how one will vote in the general election. In 2000 I voted for McCain in the Pennsylvania primary because he had been my first choice and I was still annoyed that he’d been forced out months earlier through the rancid South Carolina primary. In November 2000 I proceeded to sourly vote for George W. Bush because he was clearly a better final choice than Al Gore.
This year the people voting for McCain’s rivals are probably a mix of people who are “sending a message” to him to stay conservative, people who are paying a last tribute to the candidate they liked better, people who will not cast a vote for President in November, and the Ronulans (who march to the beat of a very different drummer….). The majority will be there for the Republican team in November.
Jill1066 on May 7, 2008 at 2:57 PM
It is NOT anti-McCain, it is DISSATISFACTION with the party in general.
That is not going to go away until the GOP starts acting like and appointing broadbased conservatives that actually make the case for conservatism and VOTE on legislation in that way. Turning from the party that grows the government, in a conservative way of course, into the party that actually cuts spending and shrinks programs is the answer.
Theworldisnotenough on May 7, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Ed are you insinuating that if Huckabee and Paul were still actively campaigning McCain would be winning by a greater margin?
Theworldisnotenough on May 7, 2008 at 2:59 PM
I don’t understand why we even bother with primaries any longer. If it’s all meaningless, why not save some money and dispense with the whole thing?
Esthier on May 7, 2008 at 2:59 PM
That would only work if McCain hadn’t already clinched the nomination, which he has even if the both start showing up again.
Esthier on May 7, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Well, if 25% of your bosses hated you, you would probably have a tough time holding a job.
Zetterson on May 7, 2008 at 3:06 PM
I’m more concerned with the Paulbots invading the state conventions and attempting to get seated as delegates just to cause trouble at the convention.
The sheer amount of stupid in general whether it be from Paul or Obama supporters this election cycle is troubling.
bj1126 on May 7, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Paul supporters aren’t the only ones who want McCain off the ticket at the convention. I’d say that every conservative in this country want him off the ticket. At this point, Paul is a better choice than McCain.
orlandocajun on May 7, 2008 at 3:08 PM
I read this as an anti-Bush vote in 2000 by the McCainites. How did that election turn out? I bet Bush wished he had a few of those votes.
Do not be deceived, I am not a Paul supporter and went to the polls to express my dissatisfaction with Captain Amnesty. The river against McCain and the Neo-Con GOP is deep and wide. Ask Rush Limbaugh, MM, Mark Levin, et al.
Valiant on May 7, 2008 at 3:09 PM
This is absolutely a non-story.
DaveS on May 7, 2008 at 3:11 PM
“Large Round” said during his exercise in entertainment and self promotion this afternoon…”Without you [foot soldiers] this race [between BHO and HRC] would be over.”
~~~NEWS FLASH~~~
“Heavy Load” it is over…despite your feeble best efforts to the contrary.
Oh and as for those so called “PaulNuts” that didn’t vote for McCain. Who do you think they will vote for in November?
No one, folks; they’ll stay home!
J_Gocht on May 7, 2008 at 3:16 PM
True, but most people only answer to one boss. This is clearly unique.
Esthier on May 7, 2008 at 3:27 PM
I’m sure the RNC is happy with McCain. After all, he’s a Rockefeller “Republican” just like them.
No to La RAZA
No to Amnesty
No to McCain
MCPO Airdale on May 7, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Are you sure that the Bush 2000 race is the one you want to use as the standard for electoral health?
spmat on May 7, 2008 at 3:44 PM
Be patient. He’ll get started on that right after he finishes his presentation to La Raza.
a capella on May 7, 2008 at 3:49 PM
You just made me spit coke all over my keyboard!
rightwingprof on May 7, 2008 at 3:53 PM
There was a long-winded comment session this morning about McCain and judges, in which a commenter I am unfamiliar with exhibited the same sort of detached and airy theoretical illogic that most of our liberals use, and it turned out that — sit down, everyone — he was a Ronulan.
This would be right up his alley.
Jaibones on May 7, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Oh come on, here in Indiana hardly anybody even votes in primaries because we are so late.
This year I did not vote for McCain because I had a friend and neighbor on the Democrat ballot for Commissioner and I promised him I would vote for him. That means I could not vote for any Democrat this year. For all the good it did, he got beat.
Normally I vote pretty much a straight Republican ticket.
I also think a few Republicans showed up to vote for Hillary. I do not know any Republicans around here who are not going to vote for McCain.
Terrye on May 7, 2008 at 4:47 PM
I should have said that means I could only vote for Democrats, no split ballots.
But if not that useless promise I would certainly have voted for McCain and I will vote for him in November.
Terrye on May 7, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Good to know my vote isn’t significant to McCain. I’m a little people.
ThackerAgency on May 7, 2008 at 5:02 PM
But there was no Operation Chaos in 2000, so you’re really comparing apples to oranges.
I’m very curious to know (but can only speculate) how things would have looked yesterday if all of the “cross-over” Republicans had voted in the Republican primary instead of the Democrat primary.
I asked who the “cross-over” voters would have voted for had they voted in the Republican primary. I only got one response, and they said “Ron Paul”.
Assuming 10% of Hillary’s votes were from Operation Chaos “cross-over” voters, and acknowledging that those were voters who specifically chose to vote for someone other than McCain, then McCain didn’t get 77% of the Republican Primary vote, he got more like 67% of the Republican Primary vote.
When one-third of the Primary voters actively chose not to vote for McCain, I think that is a fairly significant statement.
Red Pill on May 7, 2008 at 5:02 PM
no wonder I couldn’t get more than 10 bucks for my vote. It wasn’t significant.
ThackerAgency on May 7, 2008 at 5:03 PM
St Mc’s rough night out…
J_Gocht on May 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Ed, do you have a source for your statement that large numbers of North Carolina Republicans crossed over to the Democratic primary? That doesn’t ring true for me, for three reasons. First, this is a closed-primary state except as to independents, so any Operation Chaos games here would have had to have been methodically planned at least a month in advance, thereby eliminating all but the most devoted dittoheads from participation. Second, we had a competitive gubernatorial primary, so one would expect most Republicans to care more about that than doing their part to prolong the Hillary/Obama spectacle. Third, surely a mass defection by Republicans to the Democratic primary would have resulted in Hillary winning, or at least not losing nearly as badly as she did.
I do agree that little should be read into Ron Paul’s protest votes, and less still into “anti-McCain” votes in general. That said, I’m surprised the anti-McCain contingent did as well as it did here, given that the only other “Republicans” on the ballot were Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee and … I’m not making this one up … Alan Keyes. No way I’d cast even a protest vote for this nutcases, but I might have if Thompson, Romney or Guiliani had been on the ballot.
Xrlq on May 7, 2008 at 5:29 PM
It shouldn’t be so hard to imagine that 25% of the Republicans do not want to vote for McCain. It really is amazing he is getting around 75% of the vote.
EJDolbow on May 7, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Romney probably would have gotten a lot more votes in Indiana if so many of us weren’t busy participating in Operation Chaos. If I had known others were still on the ballot in the republican primary I would have abandoned O.C. to vote against McCain.
darwin-t on May 7, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Is Indiana an open primary state? That alone may explain both why both Hillary and McCain did better there: your disaffected Republicans voted behind enemy lines, while ours stayed home and voted against their own nominee.
Xrlq on May 7, 2008 at 6:01 PM
I think a better yard stick to measure GW’s campaign against Juan McCain’s is fund raising. I have not researched that number but am willing to guess that GW at this stage of the campaign was able to raise significantly more than Shamnesty McCain.
Zorro on May 7, 2008 at 6:21 PM
It looks like you’re stuck with McCain and moderate conservative republicans. Calling them stupid and even further dividing the country is not coping. Trying to fix conservatism is a moot point if we don’t defeat liberalism.
myamphibian on May 7, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Entelechy,
That’s great for you if you agree with McCain on 75% of the issues. I don’t, and where McCain and I do overlap today, I don’t trust him to follow up tomorrow. It’s not “playing kindergarten” for me to acknowledge that I do not agree with a candidate and then vote for someone I agree with more, even knowing my candidate won’t win. It is a little bit “playing kindergarten” to go spouting off schoolyard insults at people who disagree with you.
I think McCain is going to lose in November. Is it “playing kindergarten” for you to vote for him because you agree with him, even though Obama is obviously the stronger horse in this race? Or are you making a principled choice?
A large number of Republicans who disagree with McCain are still going to vote for him. But I’m not, and if 3% of Republicans vote as I will, McCain could very well lose. The Republicans are vulnerable. The primary results now may not be telling, but, as Zorro points out, the fundraising is. My vote may not count, but my dollar still does.
elladeon on May 7, 2008 at 6:53 PM
You’ll know J-Mac is desperate when he picks Ron Paul as his running mate.
Valiant on May 7, 2008 at 7:23 PM
McCain more than anyone is the total embodiment of everything that is wrong with the party.
aengus on May 7, 2008 at 7:23 PM
There is no Republican to be there for. Only an open-borders loving, criminal-supporting fraud putting an R after his name.
KSgop on May 7, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Okay, I admit it: I voted “no preference” yesterday. But I imagine I’ll find a way to hold my nose and vote for No Brain McVain in November. I imagine I’m not the only one, either.
300 million people and we’re stuck with these 3 putzes?!
Lurking Vet on May 7, 2008 at 9:32 PM
That’s just silly. The Dems are the ones to blame here, if they can’t figure out the worse of the 2 evils, and the primaries go on and on, annnnnd they let anyone vote in their lame primaries, well of course Republicans are going to go and try to tweak their noses a bit… after all, we did say. ‘Fuck it, McCain 08′ quite some time ago. (seems like years ago) I’ve got to admit, my husband and I did.
4shoes on May 7, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Precisely my thought!
A RINO is a RINO no matter who he tries to fool or how he tries to do it!
Personally I’m very tempted to fill out my entire ballot but leave POTUS unvoted. I’ll feel fine about myself no matter who wins. I grant that I’ll not like where the country goes afterwards, but that will be the case, again, no matter who wins!
Vntnrse on May 7, 2008 at 11:46 PM
I don’t know if others did the same as I did in 2000, but I’m part of the 27% against McCain in NC. I voted no preference on Tuesday in protest. I didn’t want any of the national loser candidates listed on my Republican ballot.
I figured I’m not voting for McCain until I have to. And for the record, I’m definitely not a Ron Paul nut. (That’s one group of whackadoodles I don’t care to be found guilty associating with. Bless their hearts. He’s right on some issues, but turn down the crazy a bit.)
simon on May 8, 2008 at 12:48 AM
contray to popular believe most of us voting for “any of the above” are trying to send a message to McCain and the rep elite. From Fred barnes comment the other day I don’t think they are getting the message
unseen on May 8, 2008 at 1:05 PM