Two Primaries, Lots of Scenarios
posted at 8:25 am on May 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Hey, pal — you want scenarios? The New York Times has scenarios for today’s primary races in Indiana and North Carolina. And right now, most of those scenarios favor Hillary Clinton, who has nothing left to prove, while Barack Obama has to have a big win in North Carolina to keep from looking weak:
It’s almost over.
Well, not quite. But the Democratic presidential primaries taking place on Tuesday in North Carolina and Indiana have more delegates up for grabs than any of the remaining contests. For political, demographic and mathematical reasons, those states have the potential to reshape the competition between Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
It will be an opportunity for Mrs. Clinton to make the case that Democratic sentiment is swinging in her favor, and to slice into Mr. Obama’s lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote (putting aside the disputed contests in Florida and Michigan). For Mr. Obama, it is a chance to tamp down talk that Mrs. Clinton has exposed him as a flawed general election candidate.
You can tell where Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama think they have their best shot by where they will be on Tuesday night: Mrs. Clinton has a hotel ballroom in Indianapolis, and Mr. Obama, after some last-minute debate, finally decided on a rally at a coliseum in Raleigh, N.C. But to say that both sides are anxious would be an understatement, and with that in mind, here are three possible outcomes to watch for Tuesday, in no particular order: Mrs. Clinton wins both states, Mr. Obama does, or they split[.]
I’ll save you some reading. Here’s the thumbnail analysis from Adam Nagourney:
- Hillary wins both primaries - Obama stops getting his calls answered by superdelegates.
- Obama wins both primaries - Even Hillary’s advisers will start calling for her withdrawal.
- Hillary wins Indiana, Obama wins North Carolina - Confusion continues to reign, and media outlets start making travel plans for Puerto Rico in June.
Nagourney makes the common error of analysts these days in breaking down the most likely scenario, #3. He says that Hillary needs a big delegate differential from Indiana to make the victory impactful. At this point, though, delegate splits are almost meaningless. Hillary needs a large popular vote total and demographics from exit polling that shows that she has the best chance to beat John McCain in the fall, and that means the nature of the split decision matters more than anything else.
Here are a couple of sub-scenarios for the split:
- Hillary wins Indiana big and narrowly loses North Carolina - Barack Obama led in North Carolina by 25 points at one time, and Indiana neighbors his home state of Illinois. In fact, a large portion of Indiana gets its television news from the Chicago market. If Hillary comes within 5 points of Obama in North Carolina while blowing him out by eight or more in Indiana, the perception will be that the wheels have come off Obama’s campaign.
- Hillary narrowly wins Indiana and loses big in North Carolina - Obama can claim some recovery for his campaign, but Hillary can still show a win, making this a murky outcome for the superdelegates. This would have everyone focusing on the demographics to see where Hillary got her votes and where Obama resonates. Hillary would remind people that North Carolina always looked like a big Obama victory anyway, and that she still demonstrates better strength in middle America.
- Hillary wins North Carolina and loses Indiana - Extremely unlikely. This would drive everyone crazy and Democrats might consider calling Al Gore as a compromise candidate.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, we will almost certainly see Ron Paul fanatics capturing double digits again as they did in Pennsylvania, at least in Indiana. Does that mean John McCain should worry about a late-season charge from Paul? Er, no. It means that the Republicans lost interest in the primaries after McCain clinched, and the only voters really motivated to go to the polls are the Ronulans. Their 16% showing under those circumstances was underwhelming, and it won’t get any better tonight.
Predictions:
- Indiana - Hillary by 8. It won’t be quite as much of a blowout as Pennsylvania and Ohio, but it will be significant.
- North Carolina - Obama by four. Call it a hunch, but when the gaps narrow, Obama usually underperforms the polling.
We will be live-blogging the results tonight, so stay tuned!
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They have been playing Ron Paul commercials on the radio here in Raleigh. The only thing I can figure is that they have a bunch of left over money they need to burn. Or, they’re setting him up for a third party run.
JeffC_95 on May 6, 2008 at 8:37 AM
Prediction: If either of these Socialists gets elected President, this Country is in for a world of hurting taxation.
SeniorD on May 6, 2008 at 8:38 AM
Rasmussen today has Hillary ahead by 5 in Indianna and Barack up by 9 in North Carolina so will be a spilit decision if that holds.
Operation Chaos is needed.
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 8:40 AM
Hasn’t Paul already tiptoed right up to the edge of endorsing Obama for president? Apparently he gave up on his own candidacy before his fanatical followers did.
jon1979 on May 6, 2008 at 8:42 AM
Paul apparently favors Barack’s Chamberlain approach to foreign policy.
JeffC_95 on May 6, 2008 at 8:48 AM
It would be nice if those margins were reversed. Our gal needs some help in NC.
a capella on May 6, 2008 at 8:50 AM
Well it’s going to be interesting.
The MSM is in full court press for Obama this morning.
ABC news gal: “Republicans can vote in the Indiana Democratic primary, and people are calling the “Obmamicans”
Guest: “Actually, most of the Republicans will be voting for Clinton because they think whe will be easier to beat in the general election.”
Wrong and wrong: Most Republicans who vote D in Indiana will be voting for Clinton to either create chaos, or simply because they dislike Obama more than Clinton. But I’m pretty sure most have finally come to the realization that Clinton would be a stronger candidate, but won’t get the nomination no matter what, so bombs away…
forest on May 6, 2008 at 8:53 AM
Predictions…
Hillary wins Indiana by 8, agreed.
Obama wins North Carolina by 8 as well.
And so the battle for the nomination continues…
JetBoy on May 6, 2008 at 8:54 AM
And me thinks whomever loses Indiana, will whine about the Supreme Court upholding the required photo ID to vote…
JetBoy on May 6, 2008 at 8:57 AM
A lot of people I know are saying pollsters are dramatically undersampling black people in polling. Any idea why they were doing that in NC?
Typhonsentra on May 6, 2008 at 8:59 AM
Typhonsentra,
Also consider the known issue with polling younger people, who tend to only have cell phones. You would think that between the two issues Obama would out perform his poll numbers, but that has not been the case.
JeffC_95 on May 6, 2008 at 9:18 AM
Factum infectum fieri nequit:
The press and liberal wing of the party (patricians) hate Clinton and it is only among the plebs that she has been able to find support. There is no way Obama will get this thing taken out from under him. The party leadership and old guard don’t want it to happen and it would tear the party apart. The fact is, if you had to pick someone to toss out of the life raft Clinton is the less sympathetic character.
The Democrats have two horses in this race that can’t win.
moxie_neanderthal on May 6, 2008 at 9:34 AM
derb has another paul article at the corner, the guy has really lost it. whats funny was his pathetic defense of Paul with the newsletters and racist donations and connections but then was an expert on Obama and his racist preacher.
jp on May 6, 2008 at 9:56 AM
While I am clearly not a Ron Paul supporter (I voted for Mike Huckabee this morning), I don’t agree with calling Ron Paul supporters “fanatics” or “Ronulans”. I think we should all treat each other with a certain level of respect.
I think that Ron Paul is wrong about Iraq withdrawal because there is a radical enemy at war with us, and choosing not to fight that battle in Iraq will not end the war, it will only strengthen the enemy…a lesson we should have all learned from WWII. The enemy will not leave our homeland alone just because we concede a concession…the enemy will grow stronger and continue to wage war on us.
While I think that Ron Paul is wrong about some significant things, he is right about some other significant things like the need to abolish the IRS and establish the Fair Tax, and other strict constructionist views of the US Constitution.
Why is it that the last phrase of the 1st amendment gets ignored, and the US Supreme Court refuses to interpret its meaning?
Everyone please stop berating people who support different candidates than you. Leave that to dKos. I expect better on our side of the aisle.
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Clinton by 10 in Indiana. After the Wright scandel broke I predicted Clinton by 5 in my home state of NC. Looks like I was off with that one, but I still think Clinton can win. This one is going late into the night. I think one thing to watch for in the exit polls will be the breakdown of the African-American vote. If Clinton can get 15-20%, then maybe my original pick of Clinton by 5 is possible. My revised pick as I head to the polls is Obama by 2. I may hang around and do my own exit polling. By the way, I will not be voting for Dr Ron Paul.
chief on May 6, 2008 at 11:02 AM
Well, I voted in NC this morning, regardless of whether the polls tell me it’s pointless. As of 9:15 in my precint (downtown Cary), 131 people had voted. So there’s a data point, absolutely free of any useful context.
I did vote for Hillary, completely outside of any Operation Chaos considerations. My order of preference in the remaining candidates is McCain, Clinton, Obama, and it’s time to drop the least viable contender. I’m considering “viability” in terms of performance in office, rather than electability. Clinton at least has a chance to be a non-disastrous President; Obama comes with a guarantee.
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Cary, eh?
Are you a relocated Yankee, too?
:-)
(Cary = Containment Area for Relocated Yankees)
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 11:08 AM
I predict Hillary by 10 points in IN and Obama by 2 in NC. Of course, I could be wrong, but I’ll never admit. I’d then be qualified to work for Zogby polling.
Physics Geek on May 6, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Cary is nice place but too liberal, yankees are ruining NC politics on state level. If they are going to move here, they should respect our voting tendancies ;)
jp on May 6, 2008 at 11:13 AM
Nah, I’m a relocated hillbilly (Arkansas). I left Arkansas before the Clintons became visible, though.
I’ve lived in Cary or Morrisville for 27 years; that almost qualifies as a native….
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 11:13 AM
Indeed. I haven’t been here quite as long as you, but long enough that non-natives honestly believe I’m a native. I don’t think I have a southern accent, but I’ve also never had the accent that people think is “typical” of where I was actually born and raised.
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 11:23 AM
If you think Cary is too liberal, what do you think of Chapel Hill?
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 11:25 AM
You know you’ve “gone native” in NC when you give directions like, “You know where that Harris Teeter store used to be? Turn there and….”
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 11:28 AM
When some people talk about going to the zoo, they’re talking about Asheboro. When I think about going to the zoo, it’s Chapel Hill.
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 11:32 AM
cary, chapel hill, asheville are the 3 big liberal enclaves in NC.
jp on May 6, 2008 at 11:37 AM
cary, chapel hill, asheville are the 3 big liberal enclaves in NC.
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 11:40 AM
I heard recently that in Raleigh recently they were forbiding home builders putting in garbage disposals to “conserve water” with the drought. raleigh use to have one of the more pro business govt. in the state but not anymore thanks to the immigration of yankees.
jp on May 6, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Hillary’s nuke-you-ler option is retarded.
Waiting until NOW to say the votes should count is ridiculous.
The debate and decision over that should have been raised and made months ago. The votes weren’t important to her then because she thought she’d be winning this thing.
Dave Rywall on May 6, 2008 at 1:19 PM
A sound assessment.
saiga on May 6, 2008 at 3:01 PM