The end comes for Hillary

posted at 10:27 pm on May 6, 2008 by Allahpundit

As I write this, she’s been nuked in Carolina and is, er, clinging to a bitter four-point lead in Indiana with 82% in. I said this morning that if she got blown out down south then she’d have to pull off a blowout of her own in the midwest to keep the superdelegates jittery about Obama’s Wright baggage. Hasn’t happened. Take it away, Steve Kornacki:

The North Carolina results do not suggest any significant erosion in Obama’s standing in the state during what has been a very rough few weeks for him.

This alone is enough to derail the Clinton strategy. A win in North Carolina would have been powerful evidence that Democrats are turning on Obama and that the character attacks had rendered him unelectable. A very narrow loss might have helped the Clintons make this case as well. But a landslide defeat?…

North Carolina also essentially locks in Obama’s edge in the popular vote. His margin should undo whatever benefit Clinton reaped from her win in Pennsylvania. No fair and reasonable calculation of the cumulative popular vote at the end of this process will show Clinton ahead. It is now mathematically inconceivable.

Against these realities, the Indiana results almost don’t matter. Obviously, if Obama ends up ahead when all the votes are tallied, the race will end on the spot, and Clinton won’t even have license to pursue meaningless wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even if Clinton hangs on, it will be for show.

Slate’s keeping an eye on RCP’s running popular-vote totals and notes that not only will Obama widen his delegate margin tonight, he’ll erase the PV gains she made in Pennsylvania. In fact, as of this moment, even if Florida and Michigan are counted RCP gives her a popular vote lead of just 3,000+ votes — a margin of less than one-tenth of one percent. And that’s assuming that the popular vote totals from the caucuses in Iowa, Washington, Maine, and Nevada (which weren’t reported) aren’t counted at all. If you estimate for those states, he ends up with a lead of more than 100,000. Which means she has nothing left to commend her to the supers except an electabilty argument unsupported by a single key metric or even circumstantial evidence that Pastorgate has done Obama grievous damage at the polls. Are they going to take the nomination from the first serious black candidate for president without any compelling data to hang their decision on? Not a chance. It’s over. Let’s move on.


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Against these realities, the Indiana results almost don’t matter.

Pennsylvania don’t matter, Ohio don’t matter, Indiana don’t matter, Florida don’t matter, Michigan don’t matter, California don’t matter, New York don’t matter, New Jersey don’t matter… >:D

Chakra Hammer on May 7, 2008 at 7:05 AM

It is time for the Official Shillary Campaign Song!

All together now!!!!

We’ll meet again!
Don’t know where!
Don’t know when!
But I know we’ll meet again,
Some sunny day!

pilamaye on May 7, 2008 at 7:49 AM

NC nailed her, I thought she was closer then that. The youth vote and black vote is coming out strong. All of the MTV get out the vote, and the “we can have a black in office” chant has added up to a huge machine.
Hillary will make one last ditch for the Florida votes, then sit back and stay on the bench as a backup…however, I think Gore is more of the back up then her.
The one thing we found out is…a spiritual adviser can hurt a campaign, a husband can destroy it.

right2bright on May 7, 2008 at 8:02 AM

or……

I won’t be seeing you
In all the old familiar places
That this cold heart of mine embraces
It’s all through.

You’ll only find me
In the New York Sun
But when the election is new.
I’ll be running in New York,
And then I’ll be back in 2-0-1-2.

Hening on May 7, 2008 at 8:04 AM

good riddance. one down, two to go.

redrock on May 7, 2008 at 8:08 AM

ABC news reporting campaign suspended until Thursday when they’ll hold a senior level strategy meeting. Looks like she’s not the fighter I thought she was…

TheBigOldDog on May 7, 2008 at 8:14 AM

CNN’s reporting she’s currently heading to West Virginia. It’s strange, they’re reporting her loss last night very very differently than all the other outlets. They’re almost treating it like just a minor setback.

Typhonsentra on May 7, 2008 at 8:20 AM

No reason for Team Clinton to be surprised that Obama’s association with Rev. Wright hasn’t tarnished him. Hillary’s rabid supporters stick to her like glue. She has enough skeletons in her closet. The same was/is true to a large extent with her husband. Unfortunately, for a lot of people, once a Clinton supporter always a Clinton supporter. No matter what.

Sloan Morganstern on May 7, 2008 at 8:21 AM

I can’t wait for the October Surprise. It won’t come from the Republicans.

Sloan Morganstern on May 7, 2008 at 8:25 AM

” Let’s move on?” Allah… stop sounding like a liberal at worst, Fred Barnes at best. The entire point of keeping the chaos going between these two is to see the Democratic party fractured. Besides, don’t take away our fun; seeing as our side got screwed over by having McCain lead our presidential bid, I have to have my kicks and giggles come from somewhere this election season.

Jockolantern on May 7, 2008 at 8:33 AM

Hillary is unavailable for comment…she is filing divorce papers.

right2bright on May 7, 2008 at 8:48 AM

Hillary Clinton will have to be dragged off the stage in Denver after being Tased (bro), Gagged, Handcuffed, Given two shots of a strong sedative and placed in a strait-jacket. Only then will the convention be allowed to proceed…

sabbott on May 7, 2008 at 8:48 AM

She crossed the finish line and broke both legs. Time to put the philly down (proverbially, of course).

2klbofun on May 7, 2008 at 8:48 AM

The local radio station program claims that pig-in-a-pantsuit is taking a ride on the Crazy Train if she thinks she can win. They are also playing a children’s counting song to teach Hillary the math skills she clearly lacks.

Seriously though, who on her staff is going to have the testicular fortitude to be the first to tell her that it is time to fold up her tent?

highhopes on May 7, 2008 at 9:35 AM

What are these social con issues that McCain is so opposed to?

funky chicken on May 6, 2008 at 11:00 PM

closing the borders.

bernzright777 on May 7, 2008 at 9:38 AM

Hill Clinton, on TV just a month ago when asked about Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos”:
“Be careful what you wish for, Rush.”
He got his wish, Hill. Did you get yours?

Doug on May 7, 2008 at 9:42 AM

So it comes down to McCain, or Obama.

Great! I wonder if Canada would mind if I cross the border and demand my rights as an illegal.

Can we start over with some real choices?

Masscon on May 7, 2008 at 9:46 AM

This is nothing. Hillary is the Democrats’ nominee, and has been all along. So Barack Obama did better than expected in North Carolina? Meh!

Watch for a new “problem” with the Obama Camp, as well as the Rev. Wright problem to develop fresh legs, all within the next two weeks.

Even the Obama camp is making noises to this effect. Listen to Michelle Obama’s comments.

papabryant on May 7, 2008 at 9:50 AM

Can we start over with some real choices?

Masscon on May 7, 2008 at 9:46 AM

Sure in 2012. My prediction is that cranky old bastard will so alienate the right and Obama will so alienate moderate Democrats that there will be a successful third party candidate as President #45. Clearly the system is broken is McCain and Obama are truly the best this nation has to offer in the way of leadership. One as zero experience and the other is a political traitor of Quisling-like magnitude.

highhopes on May 7, 2008 at 9:52 AM

Can we start over with some real choices?

Masscon on May 7, 2008 at 9:46 AM

Don’t blame me. I voted for Huckabee.

Vaporman87 on May 7, 2008 at 9:55 AM

Major Arnold Toht – “Shoot them……….shoot them both.”

Coronagold on May 7, 2008 at 10:04 AM

Sure in 2012. My prediction is that cranky old bastard will so alienate the right and Obama will so alienate moderate Democrats that there will be a successful third party candidate as President #45. Clearly the system is broken is McCain and Obama are truly the best this nation has to offer in the way of leadership. One as zero experience and the other is a political traitor of Quisling-like magnitude.

highhopes on May 7, 2008 at 9:52 AM

If only you were right about the third party. I have high hopes for this. ;p

fossten on May 7, 2008 at 10:30 AM

There’s still time for a mysterious illness. . .

- The Cat

MirCat on May 6, 2008 at 11:23 PM

I think it will be his aircraft.

stenwin77 on May 7, 2008 at 10:54 AM

The harridan will still get the nomination. Hussein is unelectable by a majority of the dems, because he is a racist, anti American marxist like his wife and his mentor.

dogsoldier on May 7, 2008 at 11:08 AM

I’ll take a 3rd party, we need one. Maybe MM can run. I’d vote for her.

Masscon on May 7, 2008 at 11:30 AM

Time to roll out the FBI files….

And opponents are warned to avoid parks in the evening: there have been a rash of suicides…

landlines on May 7, 2008 at 11:36 AM

McGovern, the dead for a while, but still breathing, senator (so said Bill Handel this morning), plays Judas to Hillary, right after Wesley Clark. These might be good omens for Hillary.

Entelechy on May 7, 2008 at 11:38 AM

Obambi may win the nomination, but he can’t win the election.

He gets 90% of ‘black’ voters, but only 1/3 of ‘white’ Democrats.

There are only 12% or so ‘blacks’ in the country. All of them plus a third of ‘white’ Democrats and independents won’t add up to a majority.

QED.

MrLynn on May 7, 2008 at 11:48 AM

Let me add:

The Democrats themselves, with the liberal help of Obambi himself, have made this into a ‘white-black’ election.

Would this have happened if, say, Colin Powell had run as a Republican? No; he doesn’t make a big deal of his ‘blackness’.

Democrats: Your ‘identity politics’ chickens, are coming home. . . to roost!

MrLynn on May 7, 2008 at 11:51 AM

There’s still time for a mysterious illness. . .

- The Cat

MirCat on May 6, 2008 at 11:23 PM

I think it will be his aircraft.

stenwin77 on May 7, 2008 at 10:54 AM

Quit this nonsense. Let Kos be this way.

All you need to know is that Obama is a Marxist, and his wife is an anarchist, and this – yes fear his ignorance on the law, as a former professor of constitutional law, of all things…

“Barack Obama has always believed that our court should stand up for social and economic justice, and what’s truly elitist is to appoint judges who will protect the powerful and leave ordinary Americans to fend for themselves.”

Entelechy on May 7, 2008 at 11:53 AM

To have to admit that I would favor a Hillary presidency is a bitter pill to swallow.

Obama supporters: “Change…only an idiot could believe in!”

I wish I could move to the moon.

Domino on May 7, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Since the Dems were threatening to move to Canada if Bush won last time, where will we move with a “President Obama”? (I threw up a little as I wrote that last part)

Probably not Canada, eh?

faraway on May 7, 2008 at 12:33 PM

I wish I could move to the moon.

Domino on May 7, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Douglas Adams would note that it would be even cleverer to wish for them to move to the moon.

TexasDan on May 7, 2008 at 1:27 PM

Since the Dems were threatening to move to Canada if Bush won last time, where will we move with a “President Obama”? (I threw up a little as I wrote that last part)

Probably not Canada, eh?

faraway on May 7, 2008 at 12:33 PM

Jamaica!

SouthernGent on May 7, 2008 at 6:29 PM

It aint over till its over folks. Dont walk away until she stops twitching.

johnnyU on May 7, 2008 at 11:22 PM

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