Open thread: Indiana and North Carolina; Update: Obama wins NC; Update: Hillary wins Indiana
posted at 5:28 pm on May 6, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The early exit polls are in: It’s the economy, stupid, not health care or Iraq. Detailed demographic data should start trickling in around 6 p.m. Trust it if you dare.
I still think she needs a blowout in Indiana to offset one in North Carolina but the Nation seems to think a win is a win. Mull this over while you wait, savoring the “nightmare scenario” we may very well find ourselves in three or four hours from now. One or both of us will be liveblogging; as always, comments are welcome. If you’re imbibing and need a drinking game to play, Mark Halperin has made things easy for you. Or, if that’s too complicated, just tune into MSNBC and take a swig every time Rachel Maddow smirks. You’ll be unconscious by nine.
Update: Drudge says Obama wins easily in NC per the early exits. That makes sense demographically. So all she can do at this point is hold serve, i.e. no big game-changer tonight.
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Drudge says Easy win for Obama in NC :(
Aristotle on May 6, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Maddow is really, really annoying. Worse than Carville, though to his credit, Carville’s at least competent.
Just thought I’d throw that out there. Game on!
Vizzini on May 6, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Obama has won I believe almost all Southern States but Texas I think ???
The entire Democratic party in the South is based on mainly the black vote except in places like Texas and Florida where Hispanics balance that out
The real question is november. Its unlikely that southern whites will give those states to Obama. It will come down to white Blue Collar workers in the North and West and Hispanics in other states. Can Obama carry them or will McCain cut into that ?
AS for these contests it will break one for Hillary and one for Obama and settle nothing other than put in more orders for popcorn to watch the theater
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 5:36 PM
BTW i read in a Times online report that Hillary does have a “Nuclear” option where she will threaten to challenge the credentuals of individual delegates to undermine them at the Convention. That is one I’d love to see get played.
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Dear NC and Indiana,
All that she wants is another win, and she’s gone tomorrow. And all that she wants is another win, eh ah eh.
Sincerely,
Ace of Base.
malan89 on May 6, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Does anyone really think she’ll jump ship if she doesn’t blow out in Indiana? Everyone’s talked about make or break and she keeps on trucking regardless of the outcome. The woman’s hell bent on taking power, she’d kill Obama if she had the chance…
John_Locke on May 6, 2008 at 5:39 PM
If she doesn’t win by more than five in Indiana AND loses by less than seven in NC, I predict she’ll get out. If she wins by more than five in Indiana and comes within seven of body odor in NC, she’s staying till the convention (riots in the streets of Denver, baby!). If she hits double digits in Indiana, it won’t matter what happens in NC…the Clintons don’t count black voters, remember?
malan89 on May 6, 2008 at 5:45 PM
HotAir conference in Denver?
I’m there for the convention if it’s going to be chaos…
John_Locke on May 6, 2008 at 5:48 PM
Little GreenFootballs is reporting that blue collar whites broke big for Hillary
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 5:51 PM
The only primary results I want to see is McCain pulling less than 60% in NC due to his left-wing foibles. His push for “comprehensive immigration reform” lately will do him wonders here.
Valiant on May 6, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Allright. Prediction time. Conventional wisdom at this time is as such; Obama wins SC fairly easily, Hillary wins Indiana fairly easily. I predict Obama does slightly better than expected. Pulls off substantial win in SC and comes close but loses IL by a very small margin. This will be gleefully perceived by the media as an Obama victory overall. As soon as this happens Al Gore, very early in the news cycle, announces his endorsement - for Barak Obama.
This endorsement will do a couple of things. 1). Solidify Hillary’s defeat. 2). Make Al Gore look powerful as superdelegates will be jumping on board the Obama bandwagon like like polar bears in sight of their final iceburg (which they would have done regardless, even without the endorsement). 3) Appease the significant percentage of Hillary supporters angry about their candidates defeat who recognize Gore as BJ’s VP. As a result they get a piece of what was the Clinton Presidency without the Clinton baggage. 4). Gore will be back in the news and right at the top of Obama’s short list for VP. That won’t come out tomorrow but it will around the time of the Convention or whenever Obama is perceived as needing it. 5). This will calm the nerves of voters fearful about Obama’s lack of “experience” (ironically which Hillary had none of).
The US mainstream media will have a giant orgasm.
Zetterson on May 6, 2008 at 5:53 PM
I’d really like Hil to do better in NC… I guess we shall see
Hunt035 on May 6, 2008 at 5:53 PM
Jump ship? As in withdraw or 3rd party run?
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 5:54 PM
She’ll NEVER say DIE.
kirkill on May 6, 2008 at 5:54 PM
LGF says that those numbers are from Fox news
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Pointing out: Exit polling almost always overpredicts for Obama.
Typhonsentra on May 6, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Agreed. That Maddow guy is almost as annoying as Olbermann.
wise_man on May 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM
(oops. supposed to have just bolded the name.)
wise_man on May 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM
WTF Drudge?
There will be a huge push for Clinton to get out this week. A split won’t be good enough and they’ll want to save Bambi from West Virginia and a few other states. Watch for mass defections or some big endorsements.
ninjapirate on May 6, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Is the lady in the Ann Taylor Loft ad running? Pleaseeeeee.
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 6:02 PM
I’m not believing Huffpos’ numbers.
It’s freakin’ Huffpo.
Vyce on May 6, 2008 at 6:04 PM
From ABC News
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Hey!
MB4 on May 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM
From CNN
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Opps as alwasy allah is ahead of me with the news
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:15 PM
I’m in Raleigh, NC and several black folks at my job today shared with me that they are convinced the Rev. Wright stuff is all the Clintons doing! They were not kidding! If Hillary somehow pulls this nomincatio off, the democrat party will be ripped to shreds. Before I heard this, I was going to vote for Ron Paul to stick it in McCain’s face, but I had to vote for Hillary after hearing this! The longer she stays in the better!!
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 6:24 PM
Do your colleagues think the Clintons have been putting the Rev. Dr. Wright up to his remarks for years? They’re awfully thorough if they pulled that off!
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 6:26 PM
I asked them that. They said Obama didn’t hear any of it. They took him at his word. They are totally robotic. It’s very scary.
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 6:29 PM
What percentage of the Mulatto vote went for BO?
kirkill on May 6, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Where have I heard that before?
MB4 on May 6, 2008 at 6:33 PM
50/50
EJDolbow on May 6, 2008 at 6:36 PM
Here’s what to look for in NC, in my opinion. If Hillary can keep to within 10 points in the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas she MAY have a shot (Raleigh typically is more than a counter-balance for the loons in Durham and Chapel Hill). The deciding factors will be how heavy the western part (Appalachia), and the area and the extreme southeastern coast turns out for her. If she gets 65+% there it’ll be VERY, VERY close.
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 6:39 PM
2% indiana in….68/32 H
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 6:42 PM
CNN has early returns up
Indiana 3% reporting
Clinton 25,764 61%
Obama 16,689 39%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:48 PM
So far on CNN’s map Hillary is carrying every district (However Indianapolis and Gary are still out)
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:49 PM
go to CNN (just add http and CNN to below) it wont let me direct link
/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:51 PM
Ha, Ha….
omnipotent on May 6, 2008 at 6:53 PM
More results its 59 to 41 hillary’s favor with Obama only carrying Fort Wayne right now
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Only 68% gap for Huckabee. Looks doable! Go Huck!
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 6:57 PM
“Wright controversy casts shadow …”
.
That’s not very PC.
boko fittleworth on May 6, 2008 at 6:57 PM
What the hell is wrong with people in North Carolina?
darwin on May 6, 2008 at 7:02 PM
CNN exit polls
ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#INDEM
Clinton Obama
Male (45%) 51% 49%
Female (55%) 53% 47%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:03 PM
Hillary will win Indianna
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:03 PM
One more. Here comes the Obama/Gore ticket.
NeighborhoodCatLady on May 6, 2008 at 7:03 PM
CNN
The Situation With Rev. Wright Clinton Obama
Very Important (28%) 73% 27%
Somewhat Important (18%) 72% 28%
Not Too Important (20%) 44% 56%
Not At All Important (30%) 25% 74%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:03 PM
The South Carolina primary was a zillion years ago, like February
EJDolbow on May 6, 2008 at 7:04 PM
The longer Hillbat stays in, the more friendly delegates she has on the various DNC committees to rig the rules for the next election.
pedestrian on May 6, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Doesn’t it seem like that. February was like a millennium ago as far as news, changes and crazy Dem shenanigans.
Hening on May 6, 2008 at 7:13 PM
Hillary just needs it to be close in NC - she’s never been expected to win there.
A 5 point plus win in Indiana, coupled with a less-than-5-point loss in NC would be a very good night for her, and she could argue the momentum is going her way.
She needs it, with the delegates leaking fast to Obama. Roll on Operation Chaos!
Pax americana on May 6, 2008 at 7:15 PM
Obama’s camp will spin the Indiana loss because of the perfectly legal, perfectly constitutional voter ID law that they will say “suppressed black voter turnout”.
Wait.Watch.Believe It.
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:17 PM
Elitist Yankees have flocked here almost as quickly as illegals. That’s what’s wrong with North Carolina!
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:18 PM
Hillary may have won with Republican leaners, but Obama did better with Independents than he did with his own party, here in Indiana.
Terrye on May 6, 2008 at 7:22 PM
WRAL is still reporting “steady to trickle” voter turnout. Obama may have peaked with early voting. This might be a fun night. Pay no attention to Durham County vote returns. It’ll be a lock for Obama. Those are the same voters who re-voted Mike Nifong back into office as District Attorney. Durham is to NC as Philadelphia is to PA. ‘Nuff said!!
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:24 PM
Exit pools have been garbage all through this campiagn season. No reason they’d change now.
flenser on May 6, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Hillary running tremendously strong in southern Indiana. Better than expected I’d dare say. Her margins are 65% +
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Huckabee has closed the gap now to 64%. He is picking up steam!
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Exit “polls”.
flenser on May 6, 2008 at 7:30 PM
BO wins in NC
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Love the graphic on CNN map. 0% reporting-Obama wins! Those ruby slippers are something special.
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 7:34 PM
I heard somewhere that the upcoming states would most likely go to Hillary. True?
If so, she is not going anywhere.
stenwin77 on May 6, 2008 at 7:34 PM
Rasmussen has Hillary up by 20 points in West Virginia
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:35 PM
WOW!
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 7:36 PM
From CNN
Vote by Race Clinton Obama No Preference
White (63%) 59% 36% 4%
African-American (33%) 6% 91% 2%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:41 PM
That is from North Carolina
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:41 PM
Was Race of Candidate Important to You
Clinton Obama No Preference
Whites Who Say Yes (9%) 59% 37% 3%
Whites Who Say No (52%) 60% 36% 4%
Blacks Who Say Yes (8%) 7% 92% 1%
Blacks Who Say No (24%) 6% 91% 2%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:42 PM
One Appalachia county in NC reporting…only one so far…Hillary 70% +. That trend will continue. I don’t think it’ll be a double digit win for Obama. I’ll eat crow later if I have to.
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Satisfied if Obama Wins Nomination?
Clinton Obama No Preference
Yes (67%) 20% 77% 2%
No (31%) 86% 8% 5%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Interesting how the entire Chicago side of IN still isn’t reporting with 26% of the rest in.
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 7:45 PM
So 8% of people who won’t be satisfied if Obama wins voted for him?
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Takes a long time to forge ballots.
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:46 PM
The NW and SW corners are on a different time zone from the rest of the state.
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 7:47 PM
To be fair, those people believe Obama shouldn’t have to “win” anything. He should just be coronated!
SouthernGent on May 6, 2008 at 7:47 PM
It is all hopechangehopechange here in NC I see.
Dawnsblood on May 6, 2008 at 7:47 PM
It reads as follows
67% satisfied if Obama is nominee. 31% unsatisfied
Of the 31$% unsatisfied 86% voted for Hillary and 8% voted for Barack
I guess they were anti hillary votes
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:48 PM
Can see more of that in this question
Would You Be Satisfied…
Clinton Obama No Preference
Only if Clinton Wins (24%) 95% 4% 1%
Only if Obama Wins (29%) 1% 98% 1%
If Either Wins (39%) 36% 61% 3%
Dissat. With Both (6%) 53% 19% 21%
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:53 PM
No surprise that the lower class blacks voted for Obama 94% in N.C. What’s wrong with the other 6%??? Educated? Not ready for change?
/
carbon_footprint on May 6, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Thanks. That puts my mind at ease.
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 7:54 PM
Well I voted for Hillary here in Indiana. Only three more showers and I hopefully will get he sink off me.
mgtanner on May 6, 2008 at 7:56 PM
Hillary will still stay in regardless of today’s outcome. She’s sort of the equivalent to Huckabee in the Democratic race in this regard. She just doesn’t know when to quit (and I am ok with that).
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Keep in Mind Operation Chaos was in action and that could count for those votes
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 7:59 PM
Oh SNAP Shep is going nuts on KP. AP you gonna fight Shep?
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 8:04 PM
Because the results tonight only are meaningful to talking heads, anyone else buy a plasma TV from their stimulus package? It looks so much better than my dinky 13 inch boob-tube.
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Nah. I got crown moulding for my family room and kitchen. What’s left over I’ll use towards the family Vacation.
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Beer. What else is there?
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Homer: mmmmm, 13 inch boobs …
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 8:09 PM
Weight of Glory & Limerick
Rock on!
p.s. I’m a Guiness man.
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 8:10 PM
heh.
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 8:10 PM
The Dems are getting ready to nominate ANOTHER Senator with a history of doing absolutely nothing in the Senate.
No wonder John Kerry endorsed Obama early.
EJDolbow on May 6, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Tru dat!
Weight of Glory on May 6, 2008 at 8:13 PM
My family’s up in South Bend. I haven’t talked to them in an eternity….
Typhonsentra on May 6, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Does Hillary then take the fight to court? Just askin’
sloopy on May 6, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Wouldn’t this be a good time for a Hallmark moment?
mikeyboss on May 6, 2008 at 8:16 PM
I don’t know if Gore can take time off from both being a religious leader and his quest to stop ManBearPIg to run on the presidential ticket.
But that’s what HOPE and CHANGE are all about, isn’t it?
:)
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Hillary knows that NC is a small, meaningless state compared to CA, FLA, OH, PA, etc. and will take her win in bigger Indiana as a sign to keep pressing against this upstart.
Chaos Theory predicts she will go for the fractal vote!
profitsbeard on May 6, 2008 at 8:18 PM
It’s down to 10% in Indiana without the “Chicago suburbs” reporting, and his lead in NC is already almost 100k. Overall he’s doing pretty well considering all the hits he took this week. It also looks like I was right in suspecting that blacks were being underrepresented in those previous polls.
Typhonsentra on May 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Damn…with 11 % of NC in Hillary better start looking for train tickets. She is getting hammered.
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Profit,
I’ve heard, I think, Rush and Hannity both talk about how Hillary wins populated states, while Obama only wins smaller states. Hillary can make the case to super delegates that while Obama does well in many primaries, only she can win the popular states needed to win the general election. Whether true or not that Hillary can or will make this case, it’s still going to create chaos. I love it!
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Come on Carolina kick out anti war jones !
Percent Votes
Walter B. Jones (REP) 58.91% 3,735
Joe McLaughlin (REP) 41.09% 2,605
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 8:31 PM
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