New Hillary vs Old Obama: Fair fight?
posted at 8:55 am on May 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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E.J. Dionne thinks so. He writes today that Hillary Clinton only found her voice when Barack Obama punctured her overconfidence, making her a better candidate. She then had the right message and the infighting motivation to knock Obama off of his nebulous New Politics pedestal, but then gave him an opening to recover with the gas-tax holiday proposal. Dionne likes what he sees in both candidates now:
At this crucial moment, the Democratic presidential battle is a puzzle wrapped in two ironies.
The first: Hillary Clinton found a compelling voice and a plausible strategy only after she had squandered her chances of winning the nomination without a divisive struggle over superdelegates and convention rules. It took a series of defeats to galvanize her campaign and help her put forward a better self.
The second: Clinton’s embrace of a gas tax holiday has endowed Barack Obama with a sense of purpose and a burst of energy at precisely the moment his battered campaign seemed lethargic and reactive. Standing up to a proposal that even Clinton supporters see as pandering has allowed Obama to revisit his most successful days as a fresh voice uninhibited by Washington’s habits.
Thus the puzzle: Is Clinton on an upward path, or is a campaign that has consistently defied the prognosticators about to take another turn?
Dionne makes a pretty good point, although we disagree on the candidates overall. Hillary has become a better candidate after her hubris derailed her in the early primaries. Had this Hillary showed up in December or November, we would have seen this Obama a lot sooner — and she could have sailed to the nomination. Instead, she lashed out at Obama’s kindergarten essays and went so far as to tear up in order to capture some sympathy. Now she looks much more like a fighter, and much more like a triangulator in the tradition of the Clintons by appearing on Fox — and she forced Obama to do the same, undermining him with his hard-Left base.
The gas-tax holiday has left an opening for Obama, though, and one he desperately needs. Most people understand that the temporary rescission of the federal gas tax will do nothing to solve the problems of high gas prices. It’s a blatant pander, and Obama can use that as an example of the kind of politics that never solves any problems. Unfortunately, nothing Obama proposes will solve the problem, either. Both he and Hillary want to hike taxes on oil companies, which will raise prices as the companies pass the burden to the consumer at the pumps.
New Hillary and Old Obama may make for a more interesting finish for the Democratic primaries. However, the end result will be the same old tax-and-spend philosophy that will increase federal encroachment on markets and capital. No daylight exists between Hillary and Obama in any of their incarnations, and in the end both offer nothing more than style rather than substance.
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The more things change,
the more they stay the same.
maverick muse on May 6, 2008 at 9:03 AM
indeed.
new hillary, old hillary. what’s the diff.? either way she’s an annoyance.
and either way, she’s got more cojones than obama and his entire family put together.
let the games
begincontinue!homesickamerican on May 6, 2008 at 9:06 AM
As Rush said yesterday, Hillary “found” her voice when Obama was revealed as not the Messiah, but a black elitist uber-Lib.
JiangxiDad on May 6, 2008 at 9:08 AM
It will be interesting to see if New Hillary lasts into the general election, if she somehow manages to wrest the nomination away from Obama.
New Hillary was really a forced Hail Mary pass by the Clinton campaign, when it became clear that there was such a visceral hatred for her on the party’s far left that she had no hope of winning their votes in the remaining primaries. Remember, for a brief time, she and Obama were going neck-and-neck in the pandering game on who could pull U.S. troops out of Iraq the fastest. It was only when she and her handlers realized this was a no-win situation that they moved back towards the middle to try and woo blue collar voters in the wake of the first Jeremiah Wright eruption.
Normally, the practice has been for candidates to run to the middle in the general election after running to the right or left in the primaries. Bill Clinton didn’t have to do that because in 1992 Democrats were desperate for any warm body that could make it back into the White House. So he was able to have his Sister Soljah moment in May, well before the DNC convention. Hillary really has to be careful doing that in an effort to woo independents right now, because the left of the party was willing to brush off Bill’s affront in 1992, but aren’t going to tolerate any further kidney punches to their beliefs like the one Hillary laid on them last week when she said she would nuke Iran if it attacked Israel.
Hillary could end up having to tack back to the left for a while in the general election to calm the waters there. The alternate is to try and make McCain seem like he’s to the right of Tim McVeigh, which they’ll no doubt try to do, though conservative ire at McCain over his numerous liaisons with at the very least the near left of the Democratic Party will make that a difficult sell to swing voters.
jon1979 on May 6, 2008 at 9:15 AM
New voice, old voice…whatever. Clinton had zero traction until Obama tripped rounding third base.
Clinton is going straight after the Democratic labor/populist vote which will generally not vote for Obama. The gas tax is a silly issue but is one that resonates among some in her target group.
Moreover, Obama has a slightly more difficult row to hoe if he wants to play the Joe populist/ high price of arugula card. So its hers for taking and why not.
moxie_neanderthal on May 6, 2008 at 9:21 AM
I don’t think Democrats are looking at it the way we are.
Hillary made a smart move with the gas tax holiday. It got the conversation on to concrete policies, which is her turf. It got the discussion focused on an actual problem that people care about immensely right now. That doesn’t help Obama at all. He is all about atmospherics and nebulous Hope and Change rhetoric. The more they fight over the gas tax, the more obvious it becomes that Hope and Change are not going to help me pay for gas this summer. Hillary is actually talking about something that will help people RIGHT NOW, even if it only provides pennies of relief.
Obama doesn’t have a play here except to accuse Hillary of pandering. But pandering works!
rockmom on May 6, 2008 at 9:22 AM
Duh. Democrats will always say that about tax cuts.
jgapinoy on May 6, 2008 at 9:27 AM
’nuff said.
whitetop on May 6, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Rockmom has it about right. I know that the gas tax holiday will not work long term, but removing any tax for any period of time feels good, and it hows that someone understands my frustration. Also, Obama appealing to the opinion of the elites that the gas tax is a fraud is likely to help him only with his true believers and hurt him with the blue collar workers.
Buford Gooch on May 6, 2008 at 9:43 AM
“hows”=”shows”
Buford Gooch on May 6, 2008 at 9:43 AM
As Obama’s lack of experience and his associations with some very questionable people become more widely publicized, it seems his candidacy is a type of “Affirmative Action.” Someone not really qualified for the position, but who gained access to that spot due to other “unrelated” qualities (in this case, his ethnicity.) There seems to be a strong potential that this will ultimately hurt the cause of bringing blacks into the very upper levels of politics, much like Affirmative Action has gone far past the helpful point, and is now damaging.
exhelodrvr on May 6, 2008 at 9:59 AM
Excellent analysis! I would add that the final stages of the Dem primary drama will be played out behind the scenes, with Hillary appealing to the party elders. The only way they can get rid of the unelectable Obama is to force him to step aside before the convention and give his unqualified support to Hillary, thus minimizing or avoiding the black voter meltdown. Depending on how these next primaries go, I still think that could be the surprise end of this little saga.
Good point Rockmom, and a very smart move on Hillary’s part. The Wright story has legs of its own now - no need for Hillary to flog it any more. Instead, the deadliest thing she could do to Obama is switch up and start talking about policies, reminding everyone that not only is he in bed with racists and terrorists, but he’s also an empty suit. What Hillary needs most right now is visions of the general campaign, with McCain stomping the Messiah into the ground, dancing through superdelegate heads.
Doctor Zero on May 6, 2008 at 10:03 AM
I’d like to see a poll on that one Ed. IMO most people are in fact sheeple, can’t think for themselves and when the hear the words “free money” they line up with their wallets open, grinning from ear to ear and thank the government for their compassion and kindness.
Most people don’t have a clue. That’s why we find ourselves with inept losers for presidential candidates, and uninformed dolts who gleefully vote them into office.
fogw on May 6, 2008 at 10:13 AM
Hillary’s gas tax holiday is a ruse. The tax that she proposes to eliminate for the consumer she intends to pass along to Big Earl. Of course, Big Earl will pass along the increased costs to the consumer because that is how corporations serve as banks for the government. What a –dare I say it?–Shell game.
onlineanalyst on May 6, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Old Hillary = Strident Socialism
New Hillary = Less Strident Socialism
Old Obama = Closeted Socialist
New Obama = ‘Outed’ Black Liberationist Socialist
Taxes and Cost of Living? - Going through the stratosphere if ANY of these clowns (including McCain) gets elected.
SeniorD on May 6, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Welcome back. Glad. Hillary, having let him skate on that legend, as long as she did, has caused her undoing. Not the smartest woman in the world, after all.
fogw, you’re simply superb.
Entelechy on May 6, 2008 at 1:01 PM