Hillary lowering expectations in North Carolina?
posted at 12:15 pm on May 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Earlier today, I predicted a four-point win for Barack Obama in North Carolina, but compared to the Hillary Clinton campaign, I’m an eternal optimist. Drudge now says that Team Hillary will not be surprised to lose by 15 points, which seems rather pessimistic given the recent polling for the state. Reality or spin?
Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.
“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.
The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.
This looks like a transparent attempt to make the end result look good no matter what. Real Clear Politics has Obama up by an average of eight points in NC, using seven polls taken within the last two weeks. The outlier of those surveys has Obama winning by 10 points, a far cry from the 15 Team Hillary cites as a threshold today or the 23 points Obama had in the April 3 Rasmussen poll. Early voting will make it easier for Obama to win, but 15 points would be a shocker.
We can expect plenty of expectation-setting today, but this is ridiculous. If Hillary dropped seven points overnight, she will have some explaining to do, regardless of how she performs in Indiana. (via Memeorandum)
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I thought the exact same thing when i saw this at Drudge. I’m hoping she squeaks out an actual win there.
Jay on May 6, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Spin. She knows she’s going to lose there, it’s just a matter of how much. If they set an expected 15-point loss, then lose by only 4, it looks good for them.
amerpundit on May 6, 2008 at 12:32 PM
I was going to write something insightful then realized I don’t care if she wins or not – except how it affects Operation C.H.A.O.S.
HawaiiLwyr on May 6, 2008 at 12:35 PM
Why in God’s name would Hillary concede defeat while the polls are still open? I’d be pushing very hard to get every one of my supporters to the polls, not saying “oh well, looks like we’re going to lose.” It takes probably 15-20 minutes for someone to vote in a primary. Why give up that kind of time if you don’t think your vote will count because your candidate has already thrown in the towel?
Self-fulfilling prophecy, anyone?
Outlander on May 6, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Yeah, I smell something fishy here. I’m wondering if they have internal data which shows it a lot closer than people expect, so that if she loses this one by only a small margin (and by that I mean 5% or less), her camp can spin this as a victory-that-isn’t-that-much-of-a-victory for Barack (considering, as Ed pointed out, Obama was once winning the state – with heavy African-American voting percentages – by over 20 points), with our plucky “heroine” Hillary doing better than previously expected, even in defeat.
Regardless, I stand by my earlier remarks that if she pulls it close in NC, within 5 points let’s say, and wins Indiana handily, then the DNC can’t amp up the pressure to force her out, especially since she’s set to destroy Obama in West Virginia (and possibly Kentucky).
This all leads to a bloody showdown at the convention in August. At least, I hope it does.
Vyce on May 6, 2008 at 12:38 PM
I live in central North Carolina, I’ve seen a few Hillary signs but not many, No Obama signs. Not many McCain signs either. Signs I’ve seen are mostly for local races.
2theright on May 6, 2008 at 12:43 PM
It’s just a pre-emptive strike to maintain momentum, so the spin tomorrow won’t be that Obama has just barely stopped the bleeding with a narrow win in North Carolina, but that Hillary defied expectations with a narrow loss, and that Barak’s downward spiral continues. Hack the Clinton campaign’s main PR computer and you can probably already find the draft text of that statement.
jon1979 on May 6, 2008 at 12:46 PM
Just stealing a page from Bill’s “come back kid” playbook. See, we didn’t loose as badly as it was thought so it’s a victory.
TooTall on May 6, 2008 at 12:54 PM
I heard Rush mention this earlier. Who knows. She’s staying in regardless if she does well or not. All that really matters to me is Clinton is doing enough to keep Obama from being the presumptive nominee. I’m happy liberal identity politics has caught up to them and are biting them back in the ass.
Weebork on May 6, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Bingo…Like her or not, you have to admire her tenacity. She seems to want it pretty bad. The higher you go, the thinner the air, and the sharper the knives. Obambi isn’t case hardened enough yet to knife fight with Hillary.
It will sure be a mess if Hillary gets the nomination. It will be a McCain landslide if Obama gets the nomination. Hillary will have a good argument for sure, and the gloves will come off during convention time. It should be sweeeeeeeet.
saiga on May 6, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Tucker Carlson had a good analogy for Hillary hanging on…she’s like the cat you try to shove into the cat carrier to take to the vet. Fighting and clawing all the way.
kirkill on May 6, 2008 at 1:55 PM
In comments on other threads I mentioned the fact that NC has early voting and Obama supportes took advantage of that in droves. Lines were well over an hour (in many case two or more) on the last day of early voting in Durham and other predominantly AA areas of the Triangle.
Net, I think Obama +9 in NC.
The Opinionator on May 6, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Not.
whitetop on May 6, 2008 at 2:39 PM
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