Georgia: Russia wants war over Abkhazia
posted at 9:30 am on May 6, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Russian reinforcements in Abkhazia has Georgia warning of a war in the Caucasus. Putin has ordered at least 1200 more troops into the restive and disputed province of the former Soviet republic, and the move has Tbilisi on alert for military action:
Georgia is “very close” to a war with Russia, a Georgian minister said on Tuesday, citing Moscow’s decision to send extra troops to the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia.
“We literally have to avert war,” Georgian State Minister for Issues of Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili told a news briefing during a trip to Brussels.
Asked how close to such a war the situation was, he replied: “Very close, because we know Russians very well. We know what the signals are when you see propaganda waged against Georgia. We see Russian troops entering our territories on the basis of false information,” he said.
Russia and Georgia have played at brinksmanship for quite a while, and while neither of them would benefit from a war, the tussle over Abkhazia might inadvertently set one in motion. Abkhazia is actually a secondary issue for Russia, although not a false premise for their policy. They see Abkhazia as within their sphere of influence, but Putin really wants an end to NATO expansion at the expense of Russia.
A war in Georgia could set energy prices skyrocketing. The Caucasus is an oil-producing region, and Georgia serves as a transit route for Russian exports, similar to Belarus and Ukraine. That puts pressure on the West to find ways to resolve the standoff and to prevent war. Europe especially cannot afford to lose its energy imports from Russia, and if they did, the increased demand on other exporters would create a huge spike in prices.
Both Moscow and Tbilisi are playing hardball over Russian attempts to keep Georgia within its political orbit. It demonstrates that the collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed consequences that have not yet fully played out, and that the “end of history” was anything but. If Putin and his hardliners insist on maintaining a quasi-empire in the breakaway republics, and if the West continues to counter those impulses, a flash point seems almost inevitable.
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I wonder how many lefties will scream at Russia’s “War for oil” ?
Ukraine will not be happy over this either.
William Amos on May 6, 2008 at 9:34 AM
Condaleeza Rice should be able to “solve” this problem.
Mcguyver on May 6, 2008 at 9:37 AM
Expect short lived military action which will play well at home, communicate to the region to tread lightly and provide a warning shot in the direction of the West not to meddle and further that oil is king and Russia sits on liquid gold, Texas-tea.
moxie_neanderthal on May 6, 2008 at 9:41 AM
This should remain a, strictly, European problem. Georgia has been a pain in the butt since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Putin is well aware of the consequences of letting Georgia have its way vis a vis energy control.
OldEnglish on May 6, 2008 at 9:43 AM
Domestic considerations dictate Russian actions. War is desirable for Russia to divert attention from domestic issues, such as increasing cost of living, declining civil liberties, etc.
Sokrovenno on May 6, 2008 at 9:51 AM
This is the downside – or one of them – of globalization and dependency on foreign markets.
If those countries that you’re dependent on become unstable or act irrationally, your source for commodities or goods becomes less secure.
Interdependency only works if both (or all) parties behave reasonably. But irrational actors tend to foulup those plans.
In the long run things work out; but as Keynes said in the long run we’re all dead.
SteveMG on May 6, 2008 at 9:56 AM
We should stay out of this. Not only do we have no assets there, Georgia has been a part of Russia since 1801. Think of our reaction if Russia stared helping Texas(1845) or Ohio(1809) secede. And both Stalin and Gorbachev came from Georgia so they have a history of ruling Russia too.
Don Carne on May 6, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Someone tell the blue helmets.
Spirit of 1776 on May 6, 2008 at 10:02 AM
Russia already fired the first shot — literally. Cool video of a Russian MiG downing a Georgian UAV a couple of weeks ago near Abkahzia.
Cuffy Meigs on May 6, 2008 at 10:05 AM
No! Those are my people! After all, I’m Caucasian!
jgapinoy on May 6, 2008 at 10:08 AM
Who is next, Azerbijan or Turkmenistan? Either way makes it just 300 mi to Tehran. Just a one day road march for supplies and equipment to help the victims of American aggression.
That is why it is in America’s interest. Georgia might be nuts, but it is a roadblock we need.
Limerick on May 6, 2008 at 10:12 AM
So, Sen. Obamassiah, how would you heal this issue?
rbj on May 6, 2008 at 10:15 AM
But Georgia is not seceding from Russia, they are already an independent country.
CP on May 6, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Russia invades Georgia?? Send in Ghost Recon!!
And that is a pretty cool video, Cuffy.
JohnW on May 6, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Another article quotes the “foreign minister” of the breakaway region as saying they are willing for Russia to assume full military control of Abkhazia. That’s not good.
CP on May 6, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Very clever. Kudos.
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 10:21 AM
He’d side with the Russians.
Red Pill on May 6, 2008 at 10:23 AM
re: that MiG-UAV shootdown video.
I missed it the first time (because I was too busy going “Cool.”), but the Georgians present radar data saying the MiG took off from a base in Abkhazia itself and returned all the way to Russian territory. Interesting…
Cuffy Meigs on May 6, 2008 at 10:27 AM
Remember Kosovo.
Bad examples are as infectious or worse as the good ones.
May be Russia will obliterate Georgia, just ask Hill’s advice…
sashal on May 6, 2008 at 10:27 AM
I came to realize the truth to both your point and Keynes’s during my first marriage. My ex-wife was painfully irrational and I often wished I was dead.
Syd B. on May 6, 2008 at 10:34 AM
The Georgian Army just dumped their old AK-47s and have been fully equipped with M-4s (made by Bushmaster). I just hope the troops have enough time to train up with the new, superior weapon.
But the Russian groung forces suck…their small-unit ability is shite (Grozny). The only way they can win is massive artillery and air strikes (Grozny).
But we must back the Georgians up, to the hilt.
pseudonominus on May 6, 2008 at 10:38 AM
Ghost Recon for the win.
Reaps on May 6, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Doesn’t the Kremlin have enough problems in Chechnya?
While I support Georgia’s territorial integrity, I don’t see how a Russian action here is any different from the US and UN recognizing an independent Kosovo, and having NATO troops there to ensure that a new and independent Islamic country emerges in Europe.
infidelpride on May 6, 2008 at 11:03 AM
So that’s the real issue here. Do we send Obama to talk to them…..let McCain bomb them into the 4th dimension or let Hillary follow Bill’s lead and find their only aspirin factory to obliterate.
Thank you Lord for giving us choices.
Ernest on May 6, 2008 at 11:10 AM
When governments control the means to production for entire societies, war is always inevitable. All the rest of the world has nationalized energy production save the United State’s “Big Oil”. This will change as well soon based on current trends. All bet’s are off after that. Global war will consume what remains.
Egfrow on May 6, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Sadly funny…
TheBigOldDog on May 6, 2008 at 11:19 AM
(1) Take a look at a map of pre-Soviet Russia. Pay particular attention to what is contained within the borders of modern-day Russia.
(2) Read a little Soviet history on the relocation of all those folks and their replacement in many cases wholesale by ethnic Russians.
(3) Ponder the imponderable of why Russia, of all countries, would want to kick over the anthill of “breakaway republics.”
Half of southern Russia used to be non-Russian. Lots of geopolitical entities for the international community (or even one country, that’s troublesome enough) to recognize should Russia get too clever by half on this.
DrSteve on May 6, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Looks at it this way: while Russia is occupied with beating up the Georgians, they have less time to devote to screwing with us.
mojo on May 6, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Man I hate Russia. Why do these bastards even have a country anymore? Considering they’ve been the single most destructive nation on Earth you’d think somebody would’ve shut their trap for good by now.
Darth Executor on May 6, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Slowly I begin to understand what Putin meant when he said the fall of the USSR was a geopolitical tragedy. It was an evil empire but it was a useful one in that it kept a heavy boot on the loons that proliferate in that region.
Now everything’s up for grabs down there. Russia, China and Greater Islam will inevitably collide over the oil, the natural gas, the pipelines, the works.
My heart is with the brave little nations like George and Ukraine, but my head says: Side with Russia. It’s the least of the three evils and the weakest, which makes it the most susceptible to US influence. It’d be a pretty sordid partnership, our help and clout to restore Russian hegemony in exchange for peace and quiet in the Caspian region and plenty of energy deliveries, but sometimes even the noblest of nations has to get its hands dirty.
And if Russia were to sweeten the deal by actively supporting the destruction of Iran, which is in its interests too, I’d go “Georgia? Georgia who?”
dhimwit on May 6, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I take it you won’t mind when illegal Mexicans occupy half the US and then declare independence because they’re the majority population in those areas then? Russians have so many russians in former USSR countries because they moved them there to outbreed the local population. I find this tactic worthy of a declaration of war. Sadly, nobody else does because there’s no actual violence involved.
Darth Executor on May 6, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Russia is not the least evil, it’s by far the worst. Your agreement is akin to selling your soul to the devil. I agree that it’s the weakest though, and I hope beyond all hope it stays that way. I shudder to think what it would do if it regained its power.
Darth Executor on May 6, 2008 at 12:00 PM
I agree with dhimwit, for the most part. And I do think he has something with the lesser of three evils type thing. Islam obviously takes the cake, China is so dark and shifty that it’s hard to beat that evil, but Russia probably comes close.
Grafted on May 6, 2008 at 12:36 PM
We, the Frech, the British, etc. had no assets in Austria when Hitler took it. Look how well that turned out. If there is a Great Satan on this Earth, it’s Russia. Kicking it in the balls continuously is in everybody’s benefit.
Darth Executor on May 6, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Removing said balls would be even better, no? Or is the purpose to cause it pain?
njcommuter on May 6, 2008 at 1:19 PM
My wife and son are going to visit Saratov, uncomfortably close to Georgia, in June and I would appreciate it if they would hold off on the war until after they got back.
P.S. Putin is purposely stoking nationalist sentiment. I have no doubt he will try and put Georgia under his heal at some point. I don’t know enough of the Georgian military to give an opinion but a war in that region is not in our interest so we should either give up on Georgia or we should support them with enough air power to make Russia think twice. A few missile batteries would have made that Mig think twice about downing that drone.
Bill C on May 6, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Darth
I oppose illegal Mexicans being here. I think that a conquest of the US by Mexicans is as illegitimate as conquest of a Serbian province by Albanians. But there, the US has supported Kosovo first being flooded with Albanian Muslims, and then becoming independent.
My point here – if that is okay, what’s wrong with the Russians trying whatever they are in Abkhazia, or Mexicans playing out your scenario? Either it’s okay for everybody, or it’s okay for nobody. I generally go with the latter, and have been opposed to Kosovo from day 1. But none of the candidates oppose Kosovo, and McCain was actually an advocate for Kosovo independence.
infidelpride on May 6, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Yeah, who do those damned Georgians think they are? Why can’t they just go quietly and become a Russian satellite/protectorate/colony. Who are these uppity people that think they have some sort of right to remain independent of the kind and benign rule of Moscow anyways? Good thing so many people here are wise enough to say “to hell with ‘em”. Makes me proud to be part of the Free World (as we used to call it).
BTW – I helped train the Georgians in 2003. SOme of their units are awfully tough. They just don’t have enough to last in a long fight against an enemy so enlightened as to carpet bomb cities (Grozny anyone?).
major john on May 6, 2008 at 3:37 PM
We stand with Georgia!
RobCon on May 6, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Do you think they can survive a full on Russian invasion? I doubt the Russians would attempt this but they might. Putin hasn’t shown a lot of restraint in his past dealings with former Soviet Republics. An ancillary question: Are we doing enough to help the Georgians?
Bill C on May 6, 2008 at 6:07 PM
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