Broder: Can Hillary win without blowing up the party? Update: Hillary by 12 in Indiana? Update: Within three in NC?
posted at 12:50 pm on May 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Sure, as long as Obama plays the good soldier and urges his supporters to unite behind her, but the longer the race drags on the harder it’ll be to get them to do it. Note the trend in this question from the new NYT/CBS poll:
Over the past week, people backing her because they dislike Obama are down 75%; over the past month, she’s up six points among people supporting her simply because they like her better. Meanwhile, he’s lost 13 points since the Wright presser in the “strongly favor” category while the number who support him because they dislike Hillary has almost tripled. That’s the first data set I can recall from any poll where his sore-loser contingent looks bigger potentially than hers. Why the sudden sharp spike in anti-Hillary sentiment, though? I can only guess it’s because they finally think she’s a legitimate threat to take this thing away from him — a perception borne out by the trend in another question from the poll:
I think Richelieu’s right that she’s going to flame out tomorrow and this’ll all be moot, but if she doesn’t then she’s got a pair of landslides coming up to help cement her momentum. If she wins Indiana convincingly and then puts Obama away by 25 points in West Virginia and Kentucky, HuffPo’s nuclear scenario (which used to be known as Politico’s nuclear scenario) becomes less far-fetched. Exit question: How well does she have to do the rest of the way before people start asking whether Obama can win without blowing up the party?
Update: “Significant damage,” says USA Today of its new Gallup poll: “Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.”
The major caveat? Scroll down to the end of the crosstabs and see how Wright fares compared to Bill Clinton and George Bush.
Update: Maybe I spoke too soon about her flaming out: Survey USA, which is usually reliable, says it’s Hillary by 12 in Indiana.
Update: Dude?
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A kamikaze aimed at her own ship.
Akzed on May 5, 2008 at 12:55 PM
B.O. still has the delegate count in his favor, not to mention the support of the majority of Democrats in Congress who have had enough of Shillary and Bubba Billy. This is going to lead to an ugly convention in Denver, where we may see the party fracture and shatter.
Not saying this would be a bad thing, of course.
pilamaye on May 5, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Take note that only 38% of voters say McCain’s relationship with Bush would make them less likely to vote for him.
amerpundit on May 5, 2008 at 12:56 PM
The way I see this is that there is a backlash against past politicians for the current political climate. People want to blame Bush and Bill Clinton for making politics too “Tough” for someone like Obama or even Hillary.
They represent the “System” that keeps the “New” from comming to power. Its really a resentment of the political system. (And can also be seen in the Ron Paul vote”)
The left still hasnt learned that we have elections not “Coronations” and complete shift of power to them. The Constitution set into play checks and balances to limit political power and the left resents any kinds of limits.
William Amos on May 5, 2008 at 12:59 PM
He may NOT have the delegat count soon…
In Texas, there are 2000 reports of voter fraud during the Cacauses…
Add Florida… and Michigan? things get VERY murky.
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 1:01 PM
She only wins in November if either Obama self-destructs, making it obvious to all he can’t be the party’s candidate in November, or if Hillary and crew turn John McCain into a neo-Nazi, David Duke-loving Klansman and scare voters on the left into turning out for her in the general election.
Since there’s virtually nothing Obama can do short of appearing on the Rush Limbaugh show that will shake the true believers’ faith in him, my bet’s on the latter if Hillary does pull out the nomination.
jon1979 on May 5, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Denver is going to be radioactive this summer.
Rick on May 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM
The only way HRC gets the nomination is if the DNA tests show that Obama made campaign stops at that FLDS compound.
rw on May 5, 2008 at 1:05 PM
“Is honest and trustworthy”, how can anyone say “yea” to that about either with a straight face?
kirkill on May 5, 2008 at 1:06 PM
This is why I am voting in the District 5 Repub primary to get Dan Burton, my illustrious congressman, out. John McGoff, you get my vote.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on May 5, 2008 at 1:15 PM
If it is not a blow out in NC, Hillary has a shot. Obama should win NC by double digits, anything under 5, Obama will be in serious trouble.
right2bright on May 5, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Wow… Indiana… Barry only gets 77% of the Black vote, down from 92% in the last primary…
Interesting.
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 1:19 PM
I highly doubt she can pull off North Carolina. Then his people, Dean, and the Lame Stream Media will by crying for her to pull out. The question is will her ego allow that to happen given the fact she does have an argument that BHO is a VERY flawed candidate. (She is too but that’s beside the point.)
Naturaly we all want this to keep going to the convention so the potential fireworks get ugly. He has the numbers and the super’s but not enough to close the deal completely from what I can determine. So what happens after the first convention vote when he doesn’t get enough to get the nomination? Soes that scenario allow the supers enough “cover” to switch?
libhater on May 5, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Dooood.
upI misread that headline for a sec…….But the dems are viciously split - in a much broader terms than just this election cycle. Congrats, donkeys. End game realized.
locomotivebreath1901 on May 5, 2008 at 1:21 PM
OPERATION CHAOS!!!!!
This foot soldier will be voting for Hillary in Indiana as soon as the polls open in the morning.
revolutionismyname on May 5, 2008 at 1:22 PM
The number of blacks in the democratic primary in NC simply are too high for Clinton to win there. But the Superdelegates should know that. So if she comes out strong Indiana and closes to within 10 points in NC, she has a good story to tell them.
Big questions about the fall still remain. But IMHO, Obama is now tainted goods.
bnelson44 on May 5, 2008 at 1:24 PM
I think you’re missing one point of the polls…
Barrys iconic Black mandate is being eroded by the Wright scandal.
Face it, as long as he was not TOO far out, the vast majority of Blacks would vote for him on his “Blackness” (which is a fraud, he’s Arab American, but that for another post)… Now however, many see him in line with Farakahn and such, who they KNOW are doing a diservice to the Black community.
He got 92% of the black voter last primary, he’s down to 77% in Indiana in this last poll…
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 1:29 PM
He has 84% of the black vote in NC
bnelson44 on May 5, 2008 at 1:34 PM
At the end of the day North Carolina’s demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here. We estimate that 35% of the primary electorate will be black, and with Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11, Clinton’s 60-34 advantage with white voters is only enough to pull his lead down to ten.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/democratic-tracking-poll-president.html
bnelson44 on May 5, 2008 at 1:37 PM
I don’t know why you keep thinking she WILL flame out. She’s in this till the bitter end, and if she can win Indiana and come within striking distance of him in North Carolina, things get VERY messy for Dean, the DNC, and all of Obama’s other supporters.
If she manages to pull off a win in both primaries tomorrow, then I think things will now start looking pretty bleak for Barry O.
Operation Chaos needs to continue full-on. We need this thing to drag out all the way to the convention.
Vyce on May 5, 2008 at 1:39 PM
I think they need to ramp up the infighting.
Possibly armed combat within the Thunder Dome is where these delegates will wind up. I have a chain saw that I am willing to donate.
Hening on May 5, 2008 at 1:42 PM
What makes you think that the Democrat party will blow up if people switch from Obama to Hillary?
People often don’t change their minds more than once. If a signification portion of Democrats switch over to Clinton, especially voters whose states have already been decided, then you’re looking at a stronger party. Sure, the people who Barack brought in might be frustrated and leave, but why should they matter?
Sir Andrew on May 5, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Not sure if it’s been said here before, but if Hilary pulls it out and gets the nomination, I would look back to one event that started the turnaround - her appearance on Saturday Night Live. I’m not saying that I think the show itself has that much pull - I don’t even usually watch it. But with the Internet’s help, her appearance got even more airplay. And she handled the appearance extremely well. She showed a sense of humor and the ability to be self-depricating (dare I say, humble?). In short, she was likeable, and in a way that I don’t think most people who are not fans had ever seen her.
Since that time, Obama has had more trips, and has been subject to more scrutiny. And again, I give some amount of credit to SNL, for their constant parody of the unfair softness accorded Obama in the debates. The bias of the show is shameful.
Just my 2 cents…
connertown on May 5, 2008 at 1:44 PM
The two biggest delusions on the right;
1. Operation Chaos
2. The sore losers will stay home.
Every single day the same song and dance. Chaos in Denver,
Ms Cleaver or BB King stay home, Johnny Mac will pay off 10-1 because Americans will never vote for socialism in either a pant suit or an empty suit.
I’m voting for Johnny. I figure about 4 in 10 of the electorate will too…..regardless of who the Dems nominate.
You can’t trust any of the McCain vs Whoever polls since the Dems are still in the middle of their main elimination bout. Once the spotlight lands on one or the other we are going to have ‘respectful’ campaign to hit him/her over the head with.
1984 in reverse.
Limerick on May 5, 2008 at 1:46 PM
I see two likely events if this happens:
1) Blacks will stay home (unless Obama agrees to be the VP)
2) College students and 20 somethings will stay home (at least the men)
bnelson44 on May 5, 2008 at 1:47 PM
interesting numbers… but they don’t add up…
“Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11″ is only 95%.
“Clinton’s 60-34 advantage with white voters” is only 94%.
That leaves between 5 and 6% of the electorate out of their calculations… so the 10% could be either 16% or 4%….
Its also true that polling has throughout the primary season favored Obama more than the actual voting numbers would actualy proove.
/gets out his popcorn…
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 1:50 PM
That is true with the white vote, but not the black vote.
bnelson44 on May 5, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Allah,
I’m just amazed that you don’t see the end game here.
Hillary will get this nomination. It was never going to be taken from her.
I’ll bet you a five star dinner on that.
Rightwingsparkle on May 5, 2008 at 1:55 PM
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_55_380.aspx
Ewwww.w… 48-45 Obama with 7% undecided… North Carolina…
/grabs a handfull of popcorn
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM
I think Operation Chaos is working because its not in the dems interest for this thing to drag out. Its costing them mega-bucks to keep this going, money they’d need to counter McCain’s positive national image.
I do think its wishful thinking that the dems will crack up if one or the other is picked. The hard core will never vote Republican, and the media will be in the tank for whoever the Dems nominate (and that’s worth at least 15% right there)The Republicans have to do a better job laying the economic blame on the Pelosi congress and why they’re better for the long term future of the country.
Although I’ll be wishing for a ‘68 style crack up and riots in Denver.
Iblis on May 5, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Impossible, even with every single vote from now until Denver.
The Dems have leapfrogged femininity; they want a black man in office and anything short is worse than slavery.
Grafted on May 5, 2008 at 2:10 PM
If, and I mean if, Hillary takes NC, Obama is out. The momentum against Obama. However, if they select Hillary, expect a long “hot” summer in the inner cities. The DNC wants Obama for that reason, but they would prefer Hillary.
The next couple of weeks is going to be fun…
right2bright on May 5, 2008 at 2:11 PM
Operation Chaos is not doing a thing but keeping some conservatives interested. Obama’s campaign is imploding, that is what these numbers represent. Obama is basically carrying the black vote and a minority of the white dems, Hillary has the rest. If the blacks don’t show up and vote in NC, Obama goes down, and right now that vote is more apathetic every day.
right2bright on May 5, 2008 at 2:18 PM
I’ll be doing my part here in North Carolina. I changed my party ID just to be a part of Operation Chaos! Fun times indeed!!!
Capitalist Infidel on May 5, 2008 at 2:21 PM
LOL…. read… and laugh…
“CHARGE 14 - “I understand what it is to be an African American.”
EVIDENCE – Senator Obama is not African American according to U.S. Law. Senator Obama is an Arab-American according to U.S. Law. SOURCE 1, SOURCE 2, SOURCE 3
COUNTER CLAIM - Senator Obama’s father is from Kenya (Black African) and he (Obama) was born in America. How can you say he is not African American?
REBUTTAL – Senator Obama’s racial background consists of the following: 50% white (mother, both sides), 43.25% Arabic (father, both sides), and 6.25% African Negro (father, one side, 1 generation removed). 12.5% is the legal threshold one must prove to claim racial status under the law. In addition, Senator Obama cannot make a sociological claim as an African American either. He was not raised as an African American, was not raised by African Americans, and was not raised in an African American neighborhood.”
Romeo13 on May 5, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Hillary isn’t going anywhere.
Rightwingsparkle on May 5, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Awesome.
RushBaby on May 5, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Didn’t Mr. Obama make some super-fantabulous speech about race that put all this to an end. A speech that children will be studying in school for generations to come?
How does this stuff fade away so quickly?
tlynch001 on May 5, 2008 at 2:36 PM
There is chaos under heaven, and the situation is excellent.
-Mao Zedong
BohicaTwentyTwo on May 5, 2008 at 2:40 PM
I’m glad you mentioned West Virginia and Kentucky, because getting drubbed by 20-plus points in both states is going to look pretty bad for Obama if Hillary wins big in IN and comes fairly close in NC.
Obama has huge problems in every state that touches the Ohio river except Illinois. That’s alot of electoral votes that will be pretty much in the bag for McCain.
forest on May 5, 2008 at 2:44 PM
It is going to come down to how Michigan and Florida delegates are seated.
Not because these states’ delegates are overly significant but because the superdelegates are going have to deal with a backlash if one side or the other is deemed to have been treated unfairly by the party. The closer it stays between Clinton and Obama, the harder it will be for the party to ignore the popular vote and the longer this whole mess of the “rats” own making will fester.
You go girl!
highhopes on May 5, 2008 at 2:48 PM
1. Would you describe your candidate as
a) Commie scumbag
b) lesser of two evils
c) not as competent as Hannah Montana
whitetop on May 5, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Eff Obama.
Jaibones on May 5, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Heh.
Iblis on May 5, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Who do you mean? Obama or Hillary…
right2bright on May 5, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Pretty much..
Chakra Hammer on May 5, 2008 at 4:29 PM
Chaos…Delicious
A Perfect Storm…Delicious
Popcorn, with Caramel Sauce n’ Peanuts…Delicious
an Epicurians Delight…feasting begins in 4…3…2…
franksalterego on May 5, 2008 at 6:08 PM
Hannah for VP!
leftnomore on May 5, 2008 at 6:16 PM