Rasmussen: Ten-point swing towards Hillary since Wright’s presser three days ago
posted at 10:43 am on May 1, 2008 by Allahpundit
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points…
He’s lost five points to McCain over the past week, too, and seven points over the past month in New Hampshire. Pray tell, what do voters in this important swing state think of Obama’s relationship to Wright?
Fifty-four percent (54%) of New Hampshire voters say it’s at least Somewhat Likely that Obama shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 73% of Republicans, 55% of unaffiliated voters, and 36% of Democrats.
Most voters (56%) say Obama denounced Wright because it was politically convenient. Only 33% believe he was truly outraged.
Follow the last link and scroll down to the very end for an interesting data point on the great “Mitt for VP” debate. Exit question: Given the movement in her direction, why on earth would the DNC chair during Bill Clinton’s administration switch from Hillary to Obama this morning, before Indiana and NC (which may or may not be trending her way) have even voted? Possible exit answer: Someone at the Corner actually predicted something like this a while ago, that a late Hillary surge might force superdelegates out of the woodwork and, paradoxically, into declaring for Obama. They’re worried about the race dragging on and the better she does, the more likely that is to happen. Coming out for him when he’s in trouble is thus a way to blunt her momentum, essentially telling her, “Unless you win every remaining primary 80/20 he’s going to be the nominee, so you might as well drop out.” Keep it up, boys. The earlier she’s pushed out, the sore-r that sore loser contigent of hers is going to be.
Update: Joe Andrew, the DNC chair who switched, pretty much confirms the Corner’s theory.
“I’m calling on my all of my friends who are superdelegates to help heal the rift and unite behind Barack Obama, now,” says former Clinton supporter and former DNC chair Joe Andrew…
ANDREW SAID that he doesn’t buy the DNC’s position, which is that “this long process we’re involved in is reinvigorating.” But “you also see more and more polls that people are hardening their position and few of them are willing to back the other candidate.”
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Another big problem for Obama is that 27% of African Americans agree with Wright.
Valiant on May 1, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Operation Chaos will last until the convention itself. Many of the delegates themselves are up for re election and that will effect their vote cast.
William Amos on May 1, 2008 at 10:49 AM
This just keeps gettin’ better.
davidk on May 1, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Who owns Orville Redenbacher now? Cause I need to buy some stock.
JeffC_95 on May 1, 2008 at 10:52 AM
There is no chance for Hillary to bow out now regardless of the delegate count. Hillary knows that BO’s campaign is built on a house of cards…
SPCOlympics on May 1, 2008 at 10:54 AM
That’s about the same Romney Effect as the one I pointed out in yesterday’s Fox News poll:
That’s two data points now, and it is becoming apparent that Mitt Romney is not very well-liked outside his base, and might be a significant drag on the Republican ticket, at least initially.
Big S on May 1, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Because Obama has the “Wright Stuff” he will be GROUNDED!
TheSitRep on May 1, 2008 at 10:57 AM
They’ll get over it. They always do.
bnelson44 on May 1, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Even if the math gets better for Hillary Clinton, isn’t the resident problem still there? Specifically, the Obama and Clinton camps have polarized around their candidate. Obama’s people are going to support him even if his spiritual advisor and long term friend turns out to be a rabid racist. Clinton’s people aren’t going to drop their arrogant sense of entitlement and say “good show” either.
What’s more interesting to me is how this new found momentum is going to affect the Michigan votes where there was some talk of a brokered deal where Clinton would get a few more delegates than Obama in a near even split. Hard to imagine Obama agreeing to that if he actually needs those Michigan votes to get the nomination.
For what it is worth (little IMO) Dick Morris says the only one that doesn’t know that it is already over is Hillary Clinton.
highhopes on May 1, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Hang in there, Barack. Hang in there.
And then he’ll be buried in the general election.
Right?
BillLalor on May 1, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Exactly. She’s just now picking up massive momentum, she could win North Carolina, she’s looking better in Indiana, and she’s actually looking like she’s making a comeback.
And these idiots are going to tell her supporters and voters in later states that they can’t have the opportunity to vote for her now?
amerpundit on May 1, 2008 at 11:00 AM
Usually, yes, but I’m not so sure. This has become almost personal, with a true hatred amongst the Democratic ranks. Many Clinton supporters actually feel Obama stole what was rightfully hers.
amerpundit on May 1, 2008 at 11:01 AM
MUAHAHAHAHA!
Theworldisnotenough on May 1, 2008 at 11:04 AM
No way she’ll drop out. She is going to drive this through to the convention based on electability in the general. It all comes down to whether the donks want to make Barry a sacrificial lamb in the general to maintain some semblance of unity. Her Majesty loses the nomination,…sore loser mania. Barry gets creamed in the general,…riots in
a capella on May 1, 2008 at 11:04 AM
DRIP DRIP DRIP DRIP ……….
ordi on May 1, 2008 at 11:04 AM
Only the Donks could screw up winning the 2008 Presidential election. A circular firing squad is the most apt description of them.
DrW on May 1, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I predict that Obama is now a black candidate and will not win a single state.
freevillage on May 1, 2008 at 11:09 AM
Actually it is “apparent” that these polls mean absolutely nothing until the actual tickets are formed.
It has always been thus.
EJDolbow on May 1, 2008 at 11:12 AM
All this is declared BO supers petrified of her revenge if she gets it……Operation Chaos is pushing a revolt from Dean to remove the games from Rush, and Pelosi et al will not allow Hillary to call the shots.
Starlink on May 1, 2008 at 11:13 AM
One of Hillarys SUPERS just jumped to the Obama camp. He’s saying after Tuesday this needs to end to heal the party.
/I wonder which candidate he’ll want to drop out?
Tune into Rush for further instructions.
x-wing on May 1, 2008 at 11:17 AM
I would say you have a point except for the fact that Romney always polled much worse against Clinton or Obama than the other main Republican contenders did during the primaries. There was a reason for that, and I’d submit that it is that people don’t like/trust Romney very much. Now, months later, when his name is put on the ticket, people are less likely to vote Republican and more likely to vote Democrat. Surprised? Not me.
Why would McCain pick someone who has such a negative effect on his polling? He’s already running from behind this year; why would he set himself further back intentionally?
Big S on May 1, 2008 at 11:17 AM
Once the Dems have CHOSEN the nominee we can start the meme
SELECTED NOT ELECTED!!!
LOL
ordi on May 1, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Obama is on the rotisserie and Hillary is lam-basting him. He is done, but DNC doesn’t know how to carve the turkey they are left with.
Do they serve the dark meat or the white meat…
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 11:20 AM
left wing or the big thigh
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 11:21 AM
I have to disagree. I think the earlier she’s pushed out, the longer her sore loser contingent will have to get over it and “fall in line” before November.
Tanya on May 1, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Fair point. I’m working on the assumption here that somehow this will be decided in June at the latest, that the supers will show their cards and the pledged delegates will be counted and she’ll have to face reality. In which case, the difference between her dropping out “early” versus “late” is really a matter of a month or so. In that case, better to have her supporters left feeling that she wasn’t given every chance to compete fairly during the primaries because the supers conspired against her beforehand.
Allahpundit on May 1, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Meanwhile, the nutroots and MSM celebrate Obama’s courageous denunciation and assure us that the Wrightgate distraction will have no effect in the general election.
Don’t they see what a mockery they make of themselves?
petefrt on May 1, 2008 at 11:34 AM
ConAgra owns it. Their stock sells for around $23 per share.
AZCoyote on May 1, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Nothing like followship instead of leadership.
Blacksheep on May 1, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Gee, I hope all this commotion doesn’t cause ConAgra to have any Windfall Profits.
sleepy-beans on May 1, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Bigots.
kirkill on May 1, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Maybe, but smart ones, they can spot a loser.
Mitt has no coattails, after all of the touting of his being a “great” governor, he never helped anyone of the republican party in Mass get elected. He would be great for a cabinet position, but a weak Veep.
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 11:57 AM
If Obama’s poll numbers continue to tank, and/or if Clinton wins big in Indiana or comes close in North Carolina, the super-delegates might start bailing on Obama, and it’s still a long way to August.
Obama looks like the weaker of the two Democrats by now, but Operation Chaos might have some unintended consequences, and McCain should be prepared to run against Hill-Rod(ham).
Although, if Clinton wins the nomination, if the Democrats try to portray McCain as Bush’s third term, McCain could portray Hillary as (Bill) Clinton’s third term, and closets will be exploding with skeletons. The other question would be, would Jeremiah Wright’s true believers turn out for Hillary, or stay home?
Steve Z on May 1, 2008 at 12:13 PM
This is true. Weird, right?
I just keep thinking that she’s going to get closer and closer, and build up hope. And they all still hope (I admit to it myself, with an ulterior motive) that Florida and Michigan will get seated somehow. If they have a chance to get really pumped up and believing again, and then have it ripped away in Denver, the crushing will be a lot worse. (I don’t think anyone really believes right now, but if NC goes her way…)
All armchair psychology and wild guesses, of course.
Tanya on May 1, 2008 at 12:14 PM
If the DNC ends up choosing Hillary, the unspeakable happens (or at least the unmentionable), it will be a long “hot” summer in Washington, Philly, CHICAGO, Detroit, Atlanta, L.A., etc.
The DNC would never state it, but the potential for riots if Hillary is chosen over Obama is way to big of risk. They would rather choose the “weaker” candidate, then to have the inner cities erupt into chaos.
Listen to the rhetoric ramp up, if Hillary is thought to be chosen over Obama.
The MSM knows it, but is afraid to mention it…it is the elephant in the room.
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Possible although that is a FOX poll and Romney is not well liked by the GOP in crowd as we saw Thompson, Giuliani etc throwing their dogs to McCain. I trust FOX as far as I trust MSNBC for impartiality.
Suspect this poll because it implies that 1 percent won’t vote for anyone if they cannot have McCain without Romney, but two percent will take Clinton/Obama if they can’t have Mccain without Romney.
Obama/Clinton is absolutely not conservative.
A one or 2 percent drop is always within polling error. Usually polling error is at least 3 to 4 percent.
This is so skimpy it indicates no trend except Fox’s pollster’s
entagor on May 1, 2008 at 1:09 PM
I’ll point out that responses for the three matchups in this poll were drawn from the same 900 or so voters, so yo can’t blame sampling error for these differences (it’s +/-3%, by the way). Take the poll again with a different voter pool, and you’ll be sure to get different numbers due to sampling differences, but this is just one more piece of evidence that people don’t like Mitt and don’t want him to be anywhere near the White House.
Big S on May 1, 2008 at 1:25 PM
I predicted last year that Hillary would not win the nomination, if the Rev. has screwed this up I’m going to be upset.
Maxx on May 1, 2008 at 11:32 PM