Pew: McCain gaining at the center
posted at 6:40 pm on May 1, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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The latest Pew polling shows lots of interesting data on Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how Obama has lost ground to Hillary in both voters and in image. It also shows how John McCain has quietly worked his way towards centrists and independents while both Democrats loudly chase the Left. He polls much closer in the political spectrum to the average voter and has gained ground against both overall:
For his part, McCain runs better in the general election tests against both Democratic candidates among college graduates and white men. More generally, the current poll finds that McCain’s competitiveness against both Democrats is buttressed by the fact that voters continue to see him as a centrist whose views are fairly close to their own, and less conservative than George W. Bush’s. In contrast, voters place both Clinton and Obama considerably to the left of where they place themselves. These ideological perceptions of the candidates have changed little over the past three months.
While McCain is seen as more centrist than the Democratic candidates, he does not inspire as much confidence as either of them does to handle the issue voters would most like to see the candidates address: the economy. By wide margins, voters choose either Obama or Clinton as better able than McCain to improve economic conditions.
Yet voters have much more confidence in McCain than either Democrat to defend the country against future terrorist attacks. McCain’s advantage over Obama is particularly large. By 63% to 26%, more voters say McCain rather than Obama would do a better job of handling terrorism, which is a far greater margin than Bush ever enjoyed over John Kerry on this issue.
The economy will present a critical test for McCain. He has worked on building economic chops, and his campaign has notable assistance in this area from Steve Forbes and even Mitt Romney. Obama’s stumble on capital-gains tax increases could help narrow this gap, but thus far the McCain campaign hasn’t offered any focus on that gaffe from the April 16th debate.
McCain could use a well-recognized hand on economics as a running mate. I’ve suggested that Romney could fill that role, although Allahpundit has been less enthusiastic. Romney did a great job with fundraising in 2007 and could help fill a critical gap there as well. Now that Jeremiah Wright has managed to splatter himself all over Obama, not too many people would worry about Mormons in the general election. Mormons aren’t known for asking that God damn America or promulgating weird conspiracy theories about HIV and government-sponsored genocides. Wright’s demagoguery has taken the Mormon issue off the table, if Obama wins the nomination.
If not Romney, though, why not Forbes himself? Forbes was interested enough in the top job eight years ago to make a stab at it, and he certainly brings a brilliant conservative mind on economic issues. At 61, he’s young enough for the job — and his presence would give a large boost to conservative activists. He could singlehandedly make the McCain campaign the leader on economics while exposing either Hillary or Obama as pretenders, especially Obama.
That would also allow McCain to maintain his independent identity while maintaining a tough stance on national security. If the Democrats want to keep running to the Left, more and more voters will find McCain much closer to themselves.
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McCain and the Republicans really should be making an issue out of the economy. They can point out how things started going bad when the Dems took over, and how even before that, they stopped the Repubs from implementing reforms that could have mitigated if not prevented the current slow growth.
So a Forbes or Romney, or a Graham or Armey might help.
Iblis on May 1, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Ed, do you NOT remember when Forbes looked at McCain at a Republican debate for President, and says “I do not believe you were a POW!” and you see McCain turn bright red and then dig into Forbes. I about died laughing.
Am I the ONLY one who remembers this?
upinak on May 1, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Indeed!
SouthernGent on May 1, 2008 at 6:46 PM
Yes, the average voter is somewhere between Mod and Con, yet somehow the Obammunist or Hilpatine could be our next President. When voters realize where they stand on the issues, the Pubs win.
Tony737 on May 1, 2008 at 6:53 PM
Forbes seems to make sense..(IF he wants the job)
OR at least he needs to be visible on the campaign trail, IF not selected as a VP.
Chakra Hammer on May 1, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Upinak, not only do I not remember it, I can’t find any reference to it, either.
Ed Morrissey on May 1, 2008 at 6:56 PM
Two rich white guys against the smartest woman in the world, and the first female U.S. president, or the first Black president?
What’s the matter with you Ed? Don’t you know the concept of identity politics? Of Change, Unity and Hope? Of misogyny? Of race? Of love for country, only if Obama wins? Of a true and viable America only if a liberal wins? You’re going to HA diversity training, volens/nolens!
Entelechy on May 1, 2008 at 6:57 PM
I don’t remember that, anybody know of a clip available? It’s not that I don’t believe you, I just can’t imagine Forbes being that reckless or stupid.
Tim Zank on May 1, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Still a long, long way off to make wild guesses.
jukin on May 1, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Ed I am looking for it also. I am not sure when it was. I do not remember Forbes running for 2004, so i assume it was 2000. I am not joking or making this up. At the time I was married and I am my ex husband were cracking up at the statement.
upinak on May 1, 2008 at 6:59 PM
But not among conservatives.
Sigh.
HYTEAndy on May 1, 2008 at 7:00 PM
Both Mitt and Forbes are great minds on the economy, but Mitt has the ground organization, so if it came down to the two of them, then Mitt has the advantage.
I’m not sure I agree with this however, as much as I wish it were true:
Buy Danish on May 1, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Tim Zank on May 1, 2008 at 6:58 PM
It was during a Republican Presidential debate.. but I don’t remember where and I don’t remember when. I do remember the MSM showing it for about a week and the reaction that McCain gave. It is forever glued in my mind.
upinak on May 1, 2008 at 7:01 PM
Maybe it was a Saturday Night Live episode? :)
Buy Danish on May 1, 2008 at 7:03 PM
It is forever glued in my mind. - upinak
Don’t you mean ’seared’? haha just kiddin’! :-)
Tony737 on May 1, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Buy Danish on May 1, 2008 at 7:03 PM
I wish it was. I remember it clearly. Just not the date.
Ed I will look for it later, I have a dental appt. I can’t miss, but wish I could.
upinak on May 1, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Smartest woman in the world…
Entelechy on May 1,2008 at 6:57PM.
Entelechy: Smartest women all the universe,and the 7 Seas!
Damm-t,When does diversity training start! Haha
canopfor on May 1, 2008 at 7:08 PM
This why I have been saying all along that if The Mav can just call the ball, avoid buzzing the tower too often and stay out of IceMan’s jet-wash, he has a good chance of a textbook 3-wire landing on the USS USA come Election Day.
Mike D. on May 1, 2008 at 7:12 PM
I beg to differ,
I think, this is a little closer to reality.
franksalterego on May 1, 2008 at 7:16 PM
The MSM go for sleeze to the hilt, and there is this huge FLDS mess that, however unrelated it may be, gets related.
maverick muse on May 1, 2008 at 7:19 PM
Heh. What about this guy?
Big S on May 1, 2008 at 7:19 PM
If McCain is looking for a veep with substance, intellectual heft, and appeal to the fiscal conservative base, he could do a heck of a lot worse than Steve Forbes. I’d worry about Forbes not bringing any states with him, but I’m beginning to think that’s not going to be much of an issue - McCain will carry 35+ states without much effort if he runs against Obama. On the other hand, if McCain wants a rich businessman with high poll numbers, he might consider asking Tony Stark to take the veep slot.
Doctor Zero on May 1, 2008 at 7:23 PM
Running an economist as vice president seems overkill since there’s the Dept. of Treasury to consult about the economy. Let them earn their keep.
maverick muse on May 1, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Anti-Mormon HotAir commenters appear in 3..2..1…
WasatchMan on May 1, 2008 at 7:36 PM
You wouldn’t participate in any of that “sleaze”, now would you?
Buy Danish on May 1, 2008 at 7:37 PM
If you’re talking pure identity politics, let me point out white male voters are the largest demographic slice.
If that’s the way voting goes, according to identity groups, pretty much anyone who is not a white male is toast nationally.
whiskey_199 on May 1, 2008 at 7:42 PM
In the early days of his campaign, Obama benefited from being unknown. Even though his resume was only a quarter-page long, he was a bright, young, articulate black candidate – that was enough for a lot of people.
And then the “bits hit the fan”. A bit of Wright, a bit of Ayers, a bit of bitter religious, gun-toting rednecks, etc.
This Pew poll shows a number of areas where Obama has lost support – even from March to April. He is seen as: less down-to-earth, less inspiring, less honest and more phony and hard-to-like.
Essentially, he benefits from having built up a lead in delegate count and total votes before the “bits hit the fan.” I believe that if the Wright/Ayers/etc. information had been widely known before some of the important primary state primaries, he wouldn’t be leading right now – Hillary would.
BTW, put me down as enthusiastically supporting Steve Forbes for Vice President – great suggestion! It will make it easier for me to vote for McCain.
Garnet92 on May 1, 2008 at 7:48 PM
Forbes for VP
Rudy for AG.:}
Chakra Hammer on May 1, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Chart from above has been updated to better reflect reality:
http://www.az123.com/PoliImage/reality.gif
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 8:09 PM
This is why McCain needs to be so offensive to Republicans.
The country, as usual, leans conservative, but right now “Republican” is a dirty word.
If John McCain runs as John McCain, then he has a pretty good chance of winning the general election. If he runs as “Republican” or is seen as a tool of the Republican Party, then he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell.
I realize that many Republicans and conservatives (many, indeed, who comment here) will never get this idea through their heads, but I’m glad that McCain has (and I wonder if Rush and others have too, the way they rip on him).
29Victor on May 1, 2008 at 8:15 PM
Sorry — I was drawing mine when you posted yours; DIdn’t refresh the page before I posted; Didn’t mean to copycat. Great minds think alike and all that.
Mine’s more accurate, though ;-)
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 8:16 PM
We heart Steve Forbes.
LtE126 on May 1, 2008 at 8:27 PM
OHHH! I get it! It was all an XK RED 47 Technique (Fish called Wanda)…a double bluff! He’s screwed the party and the base any number of ways for 8 years..not because of sour grapes from 2000, but because HE KNEW that the GOP would be hated by the entire planet in 2008..so he’s secretly planning to become SUPER CONSERVATIVE after we vote him in! OH! A beam of light shines upon me! I get it! I actually get it! Or maybe you’re just trying to justify voting for someone who actually has more in common with the Democrat party than the Republican party?
Hey 29Victor, do you scuba dive? I’m designing a breath regulator that is shaped like John McCain’s backside…I could use some volunteers in testing it..I want to sell them at the convention..I’m sure they’ll sell like crazy. Given the theory you just posited, we might need to hook yours up to pure oxygen, because you are dreaming pal. McCain isn’t running as a Republican, because he isn’t one. He’s not going to govern like one. He’s going to govern like a democrat; and the more we howl as he flips on positions important to the GOP, the more he’s going to enjoy it. You’re electing someone who you will have no control over, and who holds you in contempt. NC was just a small preview. Get ready for it. Let me know if you want to try the regulator…I wanted to go for flavored but I don’t think I’ll have time before the convention.
austinnelly on May 1, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Trouble is, McCain hates the idea of Conservatives as much as the KosKids and Huffingtonian DUmmies hate the idea of Republicans.
And the country continues to move left because the Republicans have abandoned Conservatism;
There is no articulate voice on the national stage to champion the ideals for which the vast silent majority secretly yearns.
So, if McCain is considered a slightly conservative moderate today, if we elect him to represent the ‘Average American’ now, the bar will be shifted another notch to the left, and as soon as the next election, people like Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham will be considered the representatives of the ‘Average American’.
The Socialists will become the equivalent of today’s moderates, the Marxists will become the equivalent of today’s Liberals….
I say, give the nation a clear choice: If there truly are not enough people that want the prosperity that real conservatives can give them, so be it.
But this constant pressure to hold up mediocrity as the best we can hope for, will destroy America in the long run much more permanently, (if somewhat more slowly) than letting the leftists screw things up so badly that the people will have to beg for an actual conservative government come in and fix it.
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Why not just ask McCain to slit his own wrists right now to speed up the whole thing?
There isn’t enough charisma on the planet to give those two enough to prevent them from putting the entire country to sleep. Heck, all the people inclined to vote for the ticket will be soundly asleep and miss the whole voting thing….
TheBigOldDog on May 1, 2008 at 8:40 PM
I was trying to find the words to express my consternation at that suggestion, but you framed it for me so I’ll just say ditto.
SouthernDem on May 1, 2008 at 8:52 PM
I’ve long thought Steve Forbes would be a great choice.
Cornering the Dems on both national security and the economy would leave them with nowhere to hide.
Pax americana on May 1, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Don’t forget that the FLDS stuff was all started with a fraudulent phone call made by Rozita Swinton. Rozita is an Obama supporter from Colorado Springs and a delegate to the Colorado state Democratic convention.
Nahanni on May 1, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Mark Sanford.
funky chicken on May 1, 2008 at 9:02 PM
If Steve Forbes won’t take the job how about Teve Torbes?
BrianBoru on May 1, 2008 at 9:06 PM
Forbes? Oh my God!
MB4 on May 1, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Forbes is not a very attractive candidate for President so he should not be considered for the VP slot.
Don’t forget, the chances of a McCain presidency lasting less than 8 years is quite high.
EJDolbow on May 1, 2008 at 9:14 PM
austinnelly on May 1, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Yep, yer right. I meant people like you. Willing to flush the country down the toilet because you disagree with they guy on a couple of points.
No wonder the country hates Republicans. No wonder McCain doesn’t care if you are on his side or not. Neither do I.
29Victor on May 1, 2008 at 9:23 PM
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 8:40 PM
I don’t get it. So what is further to the left than, say, Reagan?
Immigration? No.
Spending? No.
Abortion? No.
Taxes? No.
National defense? No.
Gun control? No.
Maybe the environment. Other than that, he’s to the right of Bush on many things. So why wouldn’t he pull the party to the right?
The “average American” is pretty conservative, they just wan’t to think that they are liberal. The problem is that the “average American” really hates Republicans right now.
29Victor on May 1, 2008 at 9:28 PM
BTW:
XK RED 47 got Clinton 8 years in office. But he couldn’t have done it without the help of folks like you who refused to vote for Bush the First or Dole because they were “too liberal.” Never got to thank you for that. For liberal Supreme Court justices, a weaker national defense and the unchecked rise of radical Islam.
Thanks.
29Victor on May 1, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Hello loser troll. How are things in your sad world?
carbon_footprint on May 1, 2008 at 9:43 PM
I agree with that to a certain extent.
The thing that I fear is that they are going to hate the Republicans even more when McCain destroys the economy with his idiotic GoreBull Warming policies, His open borders policies….
And his newest idiocy: “League of Democracies” that will not replace the UN but supplement the UN in telling Americans what they can and can not do, not only in the world at large, but within our own borders.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8OR8DTG0&show_article=1&cat=0
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2009946/posts?page=30
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 9:50 PM
The graph accurately shows McCain as more conservative than the average American. The average American is even to the right of center. But you still have dolts calling McCain a liberal.
jgapinoy on May 1, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Yeah!, and the graph just as ‘accurately’ shows a hard core Marxist as being way to the right of the average liberal American.
I just love the way that McCainiacs seize upon any bit of inaccurate nonsense to support their choice, and then call everyone else names.
So classy…
Just as classy as McCain himself is.
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 11:03 PM
People have bandied Carly Fiorina’s name around and she’s a McCain insider.
Spolitics on May 1, 2008 at 11:42 PM
Ah Great. Carly Fiorina… Another limousine liberal pretending to be a Republican.
She WOULD be a McCain insider.
After destroying HP, Make her VP, so she can help ruin America too.
LegendHasIt on May 1, 2008 at 11:58 PM
McCain manages to energize some folks, but Forbes will suck the charisma right out of the room. You’re right; the couple would be a yawner.
Mitt Romney is the right choice: young enough, conservative enough, smart and tough enough, charismatic enough, economically savvy enough—and, mark my words, he might just be able to deliver a big swing state to McCain: Michigan!
MrLynn on May 2, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Love the idea of Steve Forbes for VP! Liked him all the way back in 1996! Flat tax, baby!!!
Rudy for A.G.! (someone said it before, just thought I’d second it)
kcluva on May 2, 2008 at 10:53 AM
Steve Forbes would be an excellent choice.
I saw Steve Forbes speak live in SC during the 2000 race, and he was excellent.
Red Pill on May 2, 2008 at 11:11 AM
I do not remember that, but I do know that several Vietnam veterans who are active in the POW-MIA effort believe that:
1) The two years that John McCain was supposedly in “solitary confinement” he was actually not in Vietnam at all and was being treated very well by the Russians.
2) John McCain and John Kerry worked against, not for, the goals of the POW-MIA families.
Red Pill on May 2, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Not enough people understand the truth of this.
George W. Bush won a greater percentage of the popular vote in 2004 than any Democrat has received since LBJ in 1964. And if you discount that election (because the country wanted stability in the wake of the JFK assasination), you have to go all the way back to FDR to find a Democrat who got a greater percentage of the popular vote than George W. Bush won in 2004.
Liberal Socialist Demoncrats are not in the majority, as much as they like to think they are!
Red Pill on May 2, 2008 at 11:20 AM
Wow! This is George Soros stuff! People need to wake up to the fact that John McCain is in bed with the Democratic Socialists. Soros has been funding McCain since 2001.
McCain-Feingold: limiting your first amendment rights
McCain-Kennedy: preparing the way for a Communist revolution by turning millions of low-paid workers into voters.
Gang of Fourteen: obstructing conservative judicial nominations
Keating Five: Scandalous past (”Culture of Corruption”)
…and now…
This man is seeking to weaken, not strengthen, our nation. He is every bit as dangerous as Barack Obama. Do not be deceived.
Red Pill on May 2, 2008 at 11:36 AM
So do you remember WHEN it happened? As I do not remember the date. Nor do I remember other POW’s saying that about McCain.
upinak on May 2, 2008 at 1:52 PM
It has been said, quietly, for decades.
I used to believe it, but I no longer do. There were people, trustworthy people, who were in contact with him, if only by ‘tap code’ nearly all that time. Only a month or two unaccounted for.
Probably a stupid idea to try to use THAT against him. There is more than enough well documented stuff in the past 8 years….. Heck, the last 8 weeks…. that should have made him the last person that Republicans would want to run for President.
LegendHasIt on May 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM
LegendHasIt on May 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM
Yes, it angers me. McCain isn’t perfect but I don’t see why some try to tarnish a record like that. Kerry is documented and he knows it… but McCain at least vouches for the jerk… which still doesn’t make Kerry right.
But I am in solice right now. Very sad… I donated for Merlin’s Miracles and this fine young man passed on :(
DoD Identifies Marine Casualty
The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Merlin German, 22 of Manhattan, N.Y., died April 11 at Brooke Army Medical Center, San Antonio, Texas, from wounds he suffered while conducting combat operations in Al Anbar province, Iraq, on Feb. 22, 2005. He was assigned to the 5th Battalion, 11th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif., while deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. German’s parent unit was the 2nd Battalion, 11th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif. He was medically retired Sept. 28, 2007, as a result of his injuries. Media with questions about this Marine can contact the Headquarters Marine Corps public affairs
upinak on May 2, 2008 at 3:12 PM