Obama loses 24 points among men in Indiana — in five days
posted at 4:07 pm on May 1, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Sweet — but trustworthy?
What is particularly striking in the results is the declining support for Obama in favor of Clinton over successive days in which respondents were questioned.
On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a 2 percent lead — 45 percent to 43 percent, despite a 20-point lead for Obama among male respondents. Each day, more respondents supported Clinton.
By the last day of polling, Clinton took 4 percent lead among men — 45 percent to 41 percent — representing a staggering 24-point swing.
The poll was taken over five days starting on April 25, the day of the Moyers/Wright interview. Among men, Obama led 54/34. The next day it had swung six points, to 48/40, and the day after that held steady at 48/39. Then, on April 28, the day of Wright’s speech at the National Press Club, another big shift — dead even at 44. And then on the 29th, the day of Obama’s presser, it settled at 45/41 for Hillary. Interestingly, she actually lost two points among women during this span, but that’s within the margin of error. Question: How to explain it? They don’t provide any daily crosstabs by race, but if there was similar movement on that count they surely would have flagged it. What is it about Wright that’s alienating men but not women?
I checked RCP to compare the gender numbers here with the other most recent polls but Rasmussen’s crosstabs are behind a reg wall. PPP’s latest, conducted on April 27-28, doesn’t provide daily tracking either, but it’s interesting to note that their numbers were about the same for those days as the Indy Channel’s were: 46/44 for Obama among men, compared to 44/44 for IC. He might actually be cratering here, although reserve judgment for now: Unless I misread it, the IC poll undersampled men considerably, 33/67. Their final numbers as of April 29 might be correct but the initial April 25 figures, using a very small sample, might have wildly overestimated Obama’s male support.
Exit question: Why is Northwestern really rescinding Wright’s honorary degree? Is it because they’re genuinely worried about a media circus, or is it because now that the Messiah has rescinded his own approval of him Wright’s officially a Bad Guy in liberal circles?
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i’m actually happy that we get Obama instead of Hillary, cus it looks like she’ll be a stronger candidate.
Chudi on May 1, 2008 at 4:11 PM
No wonder he threw Wright under the bus. Gotta love a president who sacrifices his nearest and dearest friends to get ahead in the polls.
bnelson44 on May 1, 2008 at 4:14 PM
The stealth candidate becomes visible?
TooTall on May 1, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Hmmm… this is getting more and more interesting…
Dem party gives Barry their mailing lists… but not Hill…
Dem bigwigs trying to decide the Primary before the convention, in Barry’s favor.
Are they trying to get Barry in before he tanks even more? Do they really think this character issue will blow over before the actual election?
Romeo13 on May 1, 2008 at 4:18 PM
Doesn’t Bernadine Dohrn work @ Northwestern? Maybe she can help Wright get his honorary degree back. Two peas in a pod and all that, you know.
Badger91 on May 1, 2008 at 4:19 PM
I am very afraid of Hillary. If she gets the nomination, she is in. I would rather go up against snObama.
cjs1943 on May 1, 2008 at 4:20 PM
“Diggin a hole the hard way” as ol’ Chuck Yeager would say…
mojo on May 1, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Why was J. Dudley Wright not sent on a World Cruise a few months ago? Letting him roam around in civilization was Russian Roulette for Obama and he lost.
EJDolbow on May 1, 2008 at 4:22 PM
They sound bitter. Maybe Obama should rustle up some guns n’ bibles for them to cling to.
BohicaTwentyTwo on May 1, 2008 at 4:23 PM
I’ll betcha he recovers. Never forget that 25% of the US population is retarded, and about 20% are mentally ill (I don’t care whether it’s biological, self-inflicted through addictions, or self-medicating…it’s still roughly 20% loons.) So with the overlap, I believe roughly 1 out of every 3 Americans is basically incompetent…and who does the gov’t pay to procreate? The retards, the libtards and the loons. And they’re all gonna vote for Obama no matter what he does or says.
JustTruth101 on May 1, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Rent Day!
Weebork on May 1, 2008 at 4:29 PM
Indiana voters are wondering why they should vote for a guy that has worse judgment than Oprah. Even Oprah was on to Rev Wright years ago.
faraway on May 1, 2008 at 4:29 PM
I think they’re trying to keep the mess out of Denver and have decided to throw Barry to the general election wolves. Hillary can run again in 2012. The rioting and nasty stuff will come after Barry gets waxed in the general and not during the convention. They’ll have close to a veto proof majority in Congress, so a Republican president won’t hurt them much, particularly one like McCain. With that in mind, I anticipate a much worse version of immigration reform to go through after the election smoke clears, regardless of who wins the general.
a capella on May 1, 2008 at 4:30 PM
justtruth, 1/3 of people are those missing links evolutionists have been looking for - half man, half ape, all liberal.
faraway on May 1, 2008 at 4:30 PM
That little indignity should send ol’ Jeremiah right over the edge… Fireworks in 5, 4, 3,..
TheBigOldDog on May 1, 2008 at 4:33 PM
I have been tuning in to Rush lately and have to say it is almost uncanny how he has planned this whole thing. Maybe he really is talent on loan from God.
bloggless on May 1, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Exit question: Boy, wouldn’t it be nice if they rescinded it because Wright is a racist demagogue? I know, I know, pure naivete.
Clark1 on May 1, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Put him on Hardball. Chrissy has to be smarting over the polls showing Barry in free fall and might actually commit an act of jounalism. In reponse, Wright might sing a little song or do a little dance. Might even document some of Barry’s attendances at “special”sermons.
a capella on May 1, 2008 at 4:42 PM
s/b journalism.
a capella on May 1, 2008 at 4:43 PM
I am fully convinced the DNC needs Obama to win, or they know that it will be a long “hot” summer in the inner cities. The unmentionable among the liberals is, if they deny a black man the opportunity, their will be a price to pay. They would rather select Obama, then have the reaction that no one wants to talk about, except me. So I will be blunt.
If Obama is not selected, there will be riots, maybe not everywhere, but in either Detroit, Washington, Atlanta, L.A., Chicago, Philly…and the DNC knows it.
They want this resolved before summer.
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Don’t you see?
It’s an attack on the Black church.
some people never geddit
franksalterego on May 1, 2008 at 4:49 PM
What interesting is that with this upcomming primary, Obama is loosing before 2-3 days before the voting date. Hillary’s strategy has always been to go negative/mean/’out there’ (like crying) 2 to 3 days before the voting, but if Obama is already being dealt a bad hand this far out from the voting will he have ‘more’ time to recover?
Plus you need to work on your adjectives, n’such - cratering? Really? Down two points and tied in another poll is cratering? Have you seen a crater? (unless of course I misread that, in which case I abstain from the questioning).
PresidenToor on May 1, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Clearly it’s the latter, but by liberal circles do you mean Dhorn and Ayers?
Frankly, I dream of a media circus, but for once I’d like to see disgusted Northwestern alumni (and other concerned Americans) swarm on Northwestern to protest the fact that they have an unrepentant, check kiting, terrorist as a faculty member, posing as a “child advocate” in the oh so ironically titled “Children and Family Justice Center”.
Buy Danish on May 1, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Wright can’t let Obama win. If obama wins, Wright’s whole lifelong story about the US of KKK will be proven to be the pure crap it is. However, if Obama looses, Wright can say “see, I was right, the US of KKK would never elect a black man”.
Wright has too much invested in his “victimism” message to let Obama prove him wrong.
There are no egos like black preacher egos. Wright is the senior father figure and Obama is the neophite under him. That is why Obama waited so long to abandom Wright. Now, wright is stuck on obama like napalm, and Obama is sinking fast.
Looks like President Hillary.
Also, Wright is too stupid to realize that he is the one creating the victims. Just another race pimp cast from the Al Sharpton/Jessie Jackson mold.
saiga on May 1, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Losing 24 points in five days is a crater, or a free-fall, or taking a major dump, choking, wipe-out, eating the big one…having a reversal, set back, adjustment, or still in the race, doesn’t cut it.
right2bright on May 1, 2008 at 4:55 PM
These polls are starting to remind me of Global Warming in that it ignores natural variations in temperature and assumes that any change in temps, at least if up, has some kind of profound meaning. Temperatures in fact naturally vary all over the place and so do polls, in fact even more so, and then with polls you have the problem of getting a representative sample which pollsters don’t seem to be very good at.
MB4 on May 1, 2008 at 4:56 PM
It has been my impression that “cratering” refers to a rapid downward trend from a previous position and “loosing” has nothing to do with defeat. I could be wrong.
a capella on May 1, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Umm,could it be Rev.Wright took it a wee bit to far,
and it sounds like Jeremy’s chickens finally found
out his new address,I hope Wright has a new chicken
coop built in his back yard next to the utility shed,
if not he’s going to have p!ssed off chickens!
canopfor on May 1, 2008 at 5:01 PM
I don’t see Obama recovering. He is now tainted with the usual “uncertainty of character” that black leaders always seem to suffer from. Are they real or are they black activists at heart?
saiga on May 1, 2008 at 5:03 PM
In Indiana -
TeleResearch in a poll done 25-29 Apr (average day would be 27 Apr) has Clinton ahead of Obama by 10%.
Rasmussen in a poll done on 29 Apr has Clinton ahead of Obama by 5%.
So is this a trend up for Obama? 5% up in 2 days?
MB4 on May 1, 2008 at 5:03 PM
24 Point drop,its called a huge gapeing hole,an Abyss!
canopfor on May 1, 2008 at 5:05 PM
I have never been a Hillary fan, but she is proving to be a scrapper. Between Willians Aiers, Michelle Obama, and Reverend Wright, there aint no way Obama would get my vote.
I don’t trust him. However, I don’t trust Hillary or McCain either.
It’s just a mucked up year.
saiga on May 1, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Wright has lost his Lefty pass. All that hate and rewrites of history are now being graded by the PC. Plus Michelle Obama’s kids might see this going on. That’s why he needs Islamic American goons to watch his fanny.
Michelle goin’ get medieval on the Rev. No she di’nt!!!!
I think making fun of White marching bands just pushed him over the edge. Who knew how deep his hatred went? You can blame Whitey for AIDS, but don’t diss the band, bro.
Hening on May 1, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Black Liberation Theology? I’d assume that women are more likely than men to buy into the victim mentality.
Esthier on May 1, 2008 at 5:10 PM
I totally agree, although my bet is riots in several of the cities you named. The Rodney King incident will look like a parade compared to what will happen if Barry is denied POTUS.
I never could understand why people would trash their own community to make a statement.
txsurveyor on May 1, 2008 at 5:10 PM
A 25% of scale swing is nothing….not even in 5 days. The slope of this line is dead level. It is the farthest thing from cratering…please.
jukin on May 1, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Do you really think that? Are you that much of a defeatist?
Who is here won’t vote because McCain is the running Republican?
Who is here would rather vote Democratic because of McCain?
upinak on May 1, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Two broken, soiled candidates, It’s a beautiful site to see. Anyone notice how dumb the smartest woman in the world looked when confronted with everyday objects and tasks?
The latest is the global warming hoax is failing fast … All the CO2 hoax does is raise taxes.
tarpon on May 1, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Gasp! The Messiah has no clothes.
Zorg on May 1, 2008 at 5:17 PM
especially now that she’s positioned herself to the center on national security.
jp on May 1, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Huh…This guy is tanking and will continue to do so. If he makes it through the convention, he will be slaughtered like a lamb on an Aztec alter in the general. He has the “Black Activist” pin on his lapel that Wright put there.
saiga on May 1, 2008 at 5:20 PM
No matter what, Obama is a loser.
Who in their right mind would expect anything better from this BHO that he’s dishing out in panic mode to Wright?
Foreign dignitaries? Obama’s on your side, before he’s not.
Citizens of America? Obama will take your vote to never relinquish. That’s right, give BHO power to run over you.
maverick muse on May 1, 2008 at 5:29 PM
And no testicular fortitude.
Someone hand him the fig leaf as he departs stage LEFT.
maverick muse on May 1, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Can John McCain “bowl”??
gary on May 1, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Guys would expect some verbal pushing back, but to say after 20 years that because of a few questions at the end of a speech that the “relationship is permanently damaged” is a hissy fit. Especially from a guy who criticized Bush for not talking to terrorists. Wright is the pastor of a megachurch, it’s not like he can’t be reasoned with.
pedestrian on May 1, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Some ideas for posters and bumperstickers to spread around Denver this summer.
There Will Be Blood
if you don’t
Elect Obama 08
It’s Payback Time for Whitey
Bigtime
Elect Obama 08
G-DDAMN AMERICA
Elect Obama 08
Obama logos are downloadable from his website for use by photoshoppers
lonesomecharlie on May 1, 2008 at 5:54 PM
The first thing I noticed in the article: She is referred to as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and he as Sen. Barak Obama. I know the middle name issue is old news… but Im just sayin…
Hunt035 on May 1, 2008 at 6:03 PM
Y’all should see the democrats in NC governor’s primary go at each other! He’s running ads about her husband selling…gasp…Confederate flags and her voting “against the KKK”. It’s hilarious! McCain was a fool for calling the NCGOP ad racist. It’s the democrats playing race card after race card! CHAOS in North Carolina!!!
Chaos in Indiana! I LOVE IT!
SouthernGent on May 1, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Could be a mandingo fantasy.
SouthernGent on May 1, 2008 at 6:06 PM
whatsamatter? worried that McCain might actually win?
windansea on May 1, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Could be a Mandingo fantasy.
SouthernGent on May 1,2008 at 6:06PM.
SouthernGent: Umm,Mandingo fantasy(Man+dingo)Downunder,ICK.
or Mandingo (Mango’s brother from SNL skit)
Ha Ha.
canopfor on May 1, 2008 at 6:34 PM
>:D
Chakra Hammer on May 1, 2008 at 6:36 PM
I am worried that McCain or Hillary or Obama will actually win as any sane conservative would be.
MB4 on May 1, 2008 at 6:37 PM
Sorry, I was wrong about the cratering, I understand the context it was used in now. Thanks.
PresidenToor on May 1, 2008 at 6:49 PM
we have a much better chance of winning in Iraq, the WOT, keeping our military strong, and lower taxes with McCain
I advise you to support McCain and hold your nose, if in 4 years he can stabalize Iraq and let economy rebound, conservatives will have a much better chance in 2012.
the alternative scenarios are much worse
windansea on May 1, 2008 at 6:56 PM
thank you ap for not sucking
spmat on May 1, 2008 at 9:26 PM