Failing pension schemes are just another consequence of the birth deficit, they are not the main motivation of the Elterngeld. A close connection between the two was alleged here in order to allow for yet another tirade against Germany’s mixed economy, used as an example for the evils of “socialism”. It is not that simple.

Ponzi scheme though it may be, if it is applied only for a limited time (unlikely, sigh), in the short run it may be the tonic for the Germans. Problem is, it is not offset (for lack of better terms) with tax cuts, reduction in programs/spending, or the like. Being so addicted to “social democracy” blinds them to the real consequences of such policies, and hinders them from learning from us.

Not sure if you really meant to say that, but it actually is one of the root causes of Western decline.

Niko on May 1, 2008 at 11:16 AM

I meant it. Feminism is the reason so many modern women have such a horrible opinion of motherhood. Feminists seek to make women feel guilty about the innate desire to nurture and care for a family.

We are starting to realize that the biggest problem of the 21st century will be underpopulation which is why I applaud Germany’s somewhat misguided attempt to incentivize birth.

We are not in as big a trouble as the Germans. (BTW, I blame feminism.)

Not sure if you really meant to say that, but it actually is one of the root causes of Western decline.

Private accounts, although democrats hate em, are the only solution that is fair for all, young and old, good health and poor health, rich and poor.

CATO is great on this issue, AARP are the new Grey Panthers, horribly misleading with their divided we fail campaign. Read about the 6.2% solution and other articles in the Social Security Choice section by Micheal C. Tanner.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1618

Germany and the rest of Europe needs to awaken from their decades-long dream of easy socialism.

Meanwhile, news today from Germany,

In Germany, anti-capitalism protests in Hamburg also turned to violence and vandalism.

May 1 is known in Germany and elsewhere as the unofficial International Workers’ Day and is marked with demonstrations and rallies that have, in some instances, turned violent.

The night before May 1, known in Germany as Walpurgisnacht, is also an occasion for mischief. This year nearly 1,000 people attended a rally in Hamburg where protests against capitalism and in support of socialism quickly escalated into scattered violence and vandalism.

TwinkietheKid on May 1, 2008 at 9:07 AM

Thanks for noticing!

“There was this one time, in band camp …”

Don’t forget this one: By 2012 in the 10 largest German cities more than 50% of all male adults age 40 or below will be descendants of immigrants.

Whatever happened to the looming population bomb? Remember
Paul Ehrlich’s book from the late 1960s which predicted disaster for humanity due to overpopulation. Then we were warned about the great global freeze and now hysteria over global warming, though I detect a slight softening of the message to imply “climate change.” I guess that covers all bets.

With the previous caveat of a tendency toward hysteria duly noted, the general de-populating of nations with liberal democratic histories and relatively free market societies is nothing less than stunning. A number of European nations face an uncertain future that goes beyond economics.

Large numbers of Muslim immigrants have settled in Europe and have much higher birth rates. As a result, France, Denmark and Belgium will likely be the first nations which will demographically become Muslim dominated nations. Others will likely follow.

The problem is less about race and ethnicity but rather much more to do with the failure to culturally assimilate those who have immigrated. Unlike the United States where immigrants are largely assimilated through work and school, liberal welfare states have unintentionally created a situation whereby immigrants are put on the social dole and not compelled through work to interact with people with the dominant group/identity.

Rather, they are able to sit at home, collect welfare and have idle time on their hands. Over the past few decades As large ghettos have emerged in places like Paris that are made up of young Muslims who are largely isolated, unemployed, unintegrated and increasingly angry. This pattern has repeated itself through a number of European nations. These are breeding grounds for disaffected youth.

More on the looming problem:

Europe, Japan and other industrialized countries have long had fertility rates far below the replacement level, creating the prospect of labor shortages and loss of cultural identity as the proportion of native-born residents shrinks in relation to immigrant populations. In contrast, many developing nations’ birthrates far exceed the replacement rate, fueling poverty and social unrest.

In developed countries, the necessary replacement rate is about 2.1. Since replacement can not occur if a child does not grow to maturity and have their own offspring, the need for the extra .1 child (a 5% buffer) per woman is due to the potential for death and those who choose or are unable to have children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 due to higher childhood and adult death rates.

Nonetheless, with total fertility rates of 7.38 in Mali and 7.37 in Niger (as of mid-2007), the resultant growth in these countries’ populations is expected to be phenomenal over the next few years, unless growth rates and total fertility rates drop. For example, Mali’s 2007 population is approximately 12 million. With its high total fertility rate per woman, Mali is expected to grow to more than 15 million (a 3 million or 25% increase) by 2015! Mali’s 2007 growth rate of 2.7 means a doubling time of just 26 years. Other countries with high total fertility rates include Afghanistan at 6.64, Yemen at 6.49, and Samoa at 4.21.

On the other hand, more than 70 countries have (as of mid-2007) a total fertility rate of less than 2! Without immigration or an increase in total fertility rates, all of these countries will have declining populations over the next few decades. Some of the lowest total fertility rates include developed as well as developing countries alike. For example: Singapore at 1.07, Lithuania at 1.21, Czech Republic at 1.22, Japan at 1.23, and even Canada at 1.61 (the European Union as a whole has a very low total fertility rate of 1.5!)

The total fertility rate for the United States is just below replacement value at 2.09 and the total fertility rate for the world is 2.59, down from 2.8 in 2002 and 5.0 in 1965. China’s one-child policy definitely shows in the country’s total low fertility rate of 1.75.

Different cultural groups within a country can exhibit different total fertility rates. In the United States, for example, when the country’s total fertility rate was 2.1, the total fertility rate was 3.0 for Hispanics, 2.2 for African Americans, and the below replacement of 1.9 for Asian and Pacific Islanders.*

From CIA Factbook: Estimated Replacement Rates Ranked 1-223
1 Mali 7.34 2008 est.
2 Niger 7.29 2008 est.
3 Uganda 6.81 2008 est.
4 Somalia 6.60 2008 est.
5 Afghanistan 6.58 2008 est.
6 Yemen 6.41 2008 est
51 Iraq 3.97 2008 est
79 Malaysia 2.98 2008 est
86 Israel 2.77 2008 est.
87 India 2.76 2008 est.
88 Egypt 2.72 2008 est.
112 Mexico 2.37 2008 est.
127 United States 2.10 2008 est.
158 Norway 1.78 2008 est.
159 China 1.77 2008 est.
160 Australia 1.76 2008 est.
165 Denmark 1.74 2008 est.
166 Finland 1.73 2008 est.
171 Iran 1.71 2008 est
173 Sweden 1.67 2008 est.
174 Netherlands 1.66 2008 est.
175 United Kingdom 1.66 2008 est
184 Canada 1.57 2008 est
188 European Union 1.50 2008 est.
190 Switzerland 1.44 2008 est.
193 Germany 1.41 2008 est.
196 Russia 1.40 2008 est.
198 Austria 1.38 2008 est.
213 Ukraine 1.25 2008 est.
206 Italy 1.30 2008 est.
207 Spain 1.30 2008
217 Japan 1.22 2008 est.
220 Taiwan 1.13 2008 est.
221 Singapore 1.08 2008 est.
222 Macau 1.05 2008 est.
223 Hong Kong 1.00 2008 est.

A trend only marginally noted in the wave of bad demographic news from Europe shows religion in Europe on the rebound. The decline of church membership in Germany has stopped, and younger Germans are attending church in larger numbers than their parents. I have links to several articles discussing this phenomenon in a recent blog article I wrote, if you want to track it down.

Religious people generally reproduce at a much higher rate than non-religious people. The decline in birthrates all over Europe corresponds with the rise in secular attitudes, and is matched by similar declines in the “blue state” areas of the US, whereas the birth rate in “red state” areas remains at or above replacement level.

My guess is that Germany will start repopulating in the next generation, and the most dire demographic predictions will not come to pass.

KMC1 hit the nail on the head. The funny part is that they’ll be paying all of their 3rd world immigrants to stay home and have babies, which is what they would do anyway since the women aren’t allowed to leave the home!!

el hombre on May 1, 2008 at 9:13 AM

Maybe that’s how it runs in the third-world crap chute of Mexico, but here in America, we don’t tolerate that kind of sexist crap, el hombre.

Which is exactly why we need to build that fence and deport all the criminals, drug runners, and thugs who ship themselves in from Mexico (and elsewhere) to make our functioning society more like the corrupt, dysfunctional wasteland that is Mexico.

And before anyone accuses me of xenophobia, the fact is Mexico is objectively a failed state. They have lots of natural resources, acccess to two oceans, a dirt-cheap labor force, and a republican government (in theory). And yet they are little better than third world hovels because their politicians are corrupt, they have no drive other than to bring ruin to their neighbor to the north, and in general they are every bit as low class as everyone makes them out to be.

Proud Mexicans should spend more time fixing Mexico and less time sucking the life out of America. If you love your home nation so much, why don’t you fix your home instead of barging into (and ruining) ours with the same piss-poor work ethic and love of corruption and filth? Why the hell is it that you can’t drink the water in Mexico if it is such a great place with a proud tradition?

We do need to end the nanny state here, but we also need to tell illegals to take a hike back to Mexico and petition THEIR leaders for public assistance. If you don’t like the leaders, do what every good little drug runner and thug does and run them out of town just like you normaly would common decency.

Germany, and other dying European countries, need to stop preaching that children are pollutants who destroy the planet, and that families who have more than one or two children are to be shunned for using more than their fair share of resources.

Germany and the rest of Europe needs to awaken from their decades-long dream of easy socialism

And give up the only thing, they believe, makes them “better than Americans”? Never!
They will stick with the slow death by entitlements; thank you very much.

I hope our country learns from the mistakes of others.

AbaddonsReign on May 1, 2008 at 9:19 AM

Sorry. They won’t. Don’t you see what the Democrats are trying to ram through?

Germany needs to find a way to produce more Germans and subsidized parenthood seems to be about the only way this is going to happen right now. I would have preferred tax rebates but this is only slightly worse considering the magnitude of the problem.