McCaskill: Most “undecided” superdelegates in Congress have privately committed to Obama

posted at 12:05 pm on April 30, 2008 by Allahpundit

Brutal if true, and it might not be. McCaskill’s an Obama supporter who may be seeing what she wants to see; it’s unclear how many of the “undecideds” she canvassed before coming to this conclusion, so the sample may be off; and of course the supers are free to uncommit at any time, so this could all change if the Wright thing turns into landslide margins for Hillary. But if it doesn’t, and McCaskill’s sense is accurate, then we’re at endgame.

While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand.

“The majority of superdelegates I’ve talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “They’re just preferring to make their decision public after the primaries are over. … They would like someone else to act for them before they talk about it in the cold light of day.”

Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill — who has endorsed Obama — said: “James Brown would say, ‘I Feel Good.’”…

[S]upporters of both Clinton and Obama say that the lobbying for congressional superdelegates seems to have decreased in recent weeks.

McCaskill said that the campaigns have all but given up on lobbying her Senate colleagues because they know their minds are made up.

Revisit this post from yesterday for the back of the envelope math. Even if the roughly 90 or so undecided congressional superdelegates split equally between them, that leaves Hillary with a 140-delegate deficit and only 210 or so undecided supers (most of whom come from the DNC) left to make it up. She’d have to win 175 of them — 83 percent — just to pull even. In sports parlance, there are two minutes left and Obama has both the lead and the ball; all he has to do is make sure he doesn’t fumble any handoffs while he’s running out the clock. Hope springs eternal that the not-so-crack Clinton oppo research team is preparing to drop another surprise and force that fumble, but let’s face it: If they had anything big on him, they’d have released it by now.

Exit question: Wright albatross or no, you sure you’d rather run against Obama? Let Operation Chaos recommence!

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Exit question: Wright albatross or no, you sure you’d rather run against Obama? Let Operation Chaos recommence!

Exactly.

Plus all attacks on him are considered racists. Does anyone really want to put up with that in the general election?

If they’re going after Hillary this hard on her attacks, what do you think they’ll do to us?

Esthier on April 30, 2008 at 12:13 PM

They may be secretly for The Obamassiah, but the fact they haven’t publicly gone for him is telling. If they really wanted Hillary out and the campaign over (to save the party from more brutal fighting) they’d have done so. This tells me that they have real reservations about The Obamassiah.

rbj on April 30, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Get ready for a general election where the demofascists slogan will be “If Barry Isn’t Elected It Proves America Is Racist!” Any criticism of barry will be labeled racist.

peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Claire McCaskill can’t afford to tie herself to the sinking USS Obama, and I’m shocked that she’s stupid enough to get herself front and center on this. She beat Jim Talent because she is a former prosecutor and a moderate democrat from Kansas City. She was one of the few democrats to vote against shamnesty and has been a fairly reliable voice and vote for reason in the Senate since her arrival.

Contrast her with Emmanuel Cleaver, an honest to goodness black pastor from KC, former mayor and current dem in the House of Reps, who is a Hillary superdelegate.

Kansas City ain’t St. Louis…for one thing, if folks cross the border to do voter fraud in Kansas City, they come from the conservative KS suburbs, so they would vote GOP.

funky chicken on April 30, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Esthier on April 30, 2008 at 12:13 PM

And all attacks against Hillary are sexist.

I do hope Hillary wins the nomination because shes so unelectable, but I’m honestly having a lot of hope in general about McCain’s chances in general. I mean a callow 3/4 term Senator and the Wicked Witch of the Beltway were the best choices the Democrats could field?

The general is gonna be awesome.

apollyonbob on April 30, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Get ready for a general election where the demofascists slogan will be “If Barry Isn’t Elected It Proves America Is Racist!” Any criticism of barry will be labeled racist.

peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:15 PM

And if Hillary isn’t elected it proves America is sexist.

Seriously, we’re going to get identity politics and the politics are personal no matter whether it’s Hillary or Obama.

It’s not like that’s something we can avoid this cycle.

apollyonbob on April 30, 2008 at 12:17 PM

“The majority of superdelegates I’ve talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing,”

Therein lies the caveat. How many potentially Hillary-supporting supers have confided their decision in a well-known Obama fanatic?

amerpundit on April 30, 2008 at 12:17 PM

Do the superdelegates vote by secret ballot?

funky chicken on April 30, 2008 at 12:17 PM

Senator McCaskill has proven herself to be a sensible, moderate women time and time again. She started out as a Clinton supporter, and switched because her daughter is a die-hard Obamatron. She’ll see the light and switch back.

As for the superdelegates, they aren’t committed until they’ve committed. Ballgame, fat lady, etc.

Tanya on April 30, 2008 at 12:22 PM

I guess the question the supers need to ask themselves is do they want to loose on principle or roll the dice and take a chance that Clinton can maybe pull this thing out….

moxie_neanderthal on April 30, 2008 at 12:23 PM

algore has been very quiet lately. I think he’s already in the process of backdooring both hillary and barry. Anyone who thinks he doesn’t want to be pres because of all the adulation he gets these days is naive. He’s ridden the global warming pony as far as it’s going to go and the guy was raised to be pres.

peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:25 PM

And all attacks against Hillary are sexist.

apollyonbob on April 30, 2008 at 12:15 PM

Not all. People are comfortable with the sniper fire remarks.

In general the sexism card gets played far less than the racism card.

Esthier on April 30, 2008 at 12:28 PM

peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Can’t see it. U.N Secretary General would be his ultimate revenge on America for rejecting him.

Limerick on April 30, 2008 at 12:29 PM

Game over?

Well….I don’t think so. I think it’s Dean-o, Stretch Pelosi, and Harry “The Body” trying to get this thing finished ASAP. They know the longer it drags on the worse it will be in the general election. They can’t afford to give McCain all this free time to build up his $$$, solidify the base and get his message out.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on April 30, 2008 at 12:31 PM

Any criticism of barry will be labeled racist.

That’s one of the (many) things that scares me about him. You know that if, God forbid, he gets elected that any criticism of anything he does will be branded as racist.

crazy_legs on April 30, 2008 at 12:32 PM

Another possibility is that McCaskill has no idea who the supers are supporting, but wants to create the impression of an unstoppable wave going to Obama.

Politics is about impressions much more than facts.

MarkTheGreat on April 30, 2008 at 12:34 PM

Obama is a suicide pact for the Democratic party. It is in perfect form for Liberal nuts to strap all their hatred and desires to see this nation fall, to Obama’s Black, JFKish, prophet-like personage and let him go off with no chance of winning more than three states.

Obama’s destiny is to suffer the worse loss in American political history, but at least all the crazies will have someone to vote for. He’s a poor third party candidate at best, and the only one the Liberal Democratic nation can muster.

Hening on April 30, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Senator McCaskill has proven herself to be a sensible, moderate women time and time again.

You gots a girlcrush on McCaskill.

Allahpundit on April 30, 2008 at 12:35 PM

This reminds me of those “such-and-such delegation’s all going to Obama” stories. Brutal if true, but it doesn’t reflect well on the source as the tale turns false. Or alternatively, if all of these people are committed to Obama, why in the world are they drawing this out and letting him get pummelled? With friends like that…

Vizzini on April 30, 2008 at 12:36 PM

algore has been very quiet lately.
peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:25 PM

That will be when this goes from a bad reality TV scenario to a comic book setting. The Democrtic Superheroes doing battle with their super powers and super weaknesses. It should be a hoot.

Hening on April 30, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Slooow boat to buyers remorse.
Many Democrat voters are already feeling it so of course delegates are the last to get a clue.

Speakup on April 30, 2008 at 12:40 PM

You gots a girlcrush on McCaskill.

Hee. She has turned out to be pretty cool. All things being relative.

Tanya on April 30, 2008 at 12:41 PM

They can’t afford to give McCain all this free time to build up his $$$, solidify the base and get his message out.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on April 30, 2008 at 12:31 PM

McCain isn’t building up his money. There isn’t any money to build up; he has few contributors. Instead, he’s running as a welfare queen.

paul006 on April 30, 2008 at 12:41 PM

algore has been very quiet lately. I think he’s already in the process of backdooring both hillary and barry. Anyone who thinks he doesn’t want to be pres because of all the adulation he gets these days is naive. He’s ridden the global warming pony as far as it’s going to go and the guy was raised to be pres.

peacenprosperity on April 30, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Yeah, but Gore is KRAZY like the coco puffs bird, and there is plenty of Gore meldown footage to prove it.

A Gore nomination could do two beautiful things for John McCain though.
1. Completely sink the “temperament” questions about McCain for good.
2. Wake him the hell up about the fraud of AGW. McCain is gonna be more willing to listen to articles from NASA than to bloviating by Gore.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/04/nasa_confirms_natural_climate.html

funky chicken on April 30, 2008 at 12:45 PM

In sports parlance, there are two minutes left and Obama has both the lead and the ball; all he has to do is make sure he doesn’t fumble any handoffs while he’s running out the clock

So is Jeremiah Wright equate to Joe Pisarcik?

HarryStar on April 30, 2008 at 12:46 PM

Somewhere, Shillary is preparing her scorched-earth initiative. She will make the traitors pay.

pilamaye on April 30, 2008 at 12:54 PM

Wow! It’s over for sure. Because you know when a politician makes a confidential commitment “in private” then there is absolutely no chance in the world that he or she won’t honor it!

Kasper Hauser on April 30, 2008 at 12:58 PM

Obama is a suicide pact for the Democratic party. It is in perfect form for Liberal nuts to strap all their hatred and desires to see this nation fall, to Obama’s Black, JFKish, prophet-like personage and let him go off with no chance of winning more than three states.

Obama’s destiny is to suffer the worse loss in American political history, but at least all the crazies will have someone to vote for. He’s a poor third party candidate at best, and the only one the Liberal Democratic nation can muster.

Hening on April 30, 2008 at 12:35 PM

I hope you’re right about Obama’s electoral chances.

funky chicken on April 30, 2008 at 12:59 PM

Since Barry O. is half-white, any criticism is only half-racist.

The glass is half full… Bosco!

profitsbeard on April 30, 2008 at 1:02 PM

In general the sexism card gets played far less than the racism card.

Esthier on April 30, 2008

Agreed and that is mostly because it has been ineffective so far anyway. People will view Hillary’s use of the sexist card as her own weakness that she needs to overcome.

Cheesestick on April 30, 2008 at 1:04 PM

Exit question: Wright albatross or no, you sure you’d rather run against Obama?

Hell no. Wright will turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Obama. Wright polarizes the debate, the only problem is that more people will end up on the “nice smackdown, Obama” antipode than the “why didn’t you do it 20 years ago?” side.

No matter what happens, though, never count out McCain.

RightOFLeft on April 30, 2008 at 1:08 PM

A) Gallup’s a joke.

B) No way this poll reflects the complete Wright meltdown of the last 48 hours.

Jaibones on April 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Until they name names on which superdelegates have declared for Obama, it’s still within Hillary’s reach. The ones who haven’t stated who they support may in the end come out for Barak, but by remaining anonymous they retain the ability to revise and extend their commitment remarks if the Obama campaign completely collapses between now and August.

jon1979 on April 30, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Exit question: Wright albatross or no, you sure you’d rather run against Obama?

Hell no. Wright will turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Obama. Wright polarizes the debate, the only problem is that more people will end up on the “nice smackdown, Obama” antipode than the “why didn’t you do it 20 years ago?” side.

Never underestimate the power of liberal white guilt, or desperation to be “cool” because you have a black “friend.”

That could definitely swing the dem primaries Obama’s way, but I doubt the same would hold true in the general election.

And Ayers/Dohrn are a hell of a lot more damaging to Obama than Wright…which may be why the media are OK with giving wall to wall coverage to the Wright-Obama story.

funky chicken on April 30, 2008 at 1:27 PM

I have written Senator McCaskill, along with my other congressmen, several times over the last year. The only thing I can say in her favor is that her office always replies.
Usually with something that proves she’s never read the U. S. Constitution, but she does reply.

q2600 on April 30, 2008 at 1:29 PM

AP,

You are drawing an entirely unsupported conclusion from the Gallup Poll.

You cannot translate the responses from a three-way question into what will be a two-way election.

Ask yourself: How many of the people with negative responses about Clinton are Obama supporters? How many people have negative impressions of all of the candidates, but will vote for the lesser evil? And so on.

Karl on April 30, 2008 at 2:09 PM

You are drawing an entirely unsupported conclusion from the Gallup Poll.

“Entirely” unsupported seems a bit harsh, but yes, I take your basic point. My point is simply that we’re likelier to have an easier time with someone starting out with high negatives than someone with middling negatives. The Obama voters may all rush into Hillary’s embrace if she’s the nominee, but I doubt it.

Allahpundit on April 30, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Since Barry O. is half-white, any criticism is only half-racist.

The glass is half full… Bosco!

profitsbeard

If HA gave out comment awards, PB would win.

leftnomore on April 30, 2008 at 5:38 PM

They may think of Obama positively, but they know Clinton’s revenge is swift and brutal.

Aristotle on April 30, 2008 at 6:11 PM