I’m not sure I’d use the word “honest” and Paul in the same sentence.

jp on April 26, 2008 at 5:05 PM

jp still spewing his ignorance…

Hey jp, gold hit $1,000…and is in a nice pullback before the next run…. Ya bettah get sum!

The economy is fine…
The dollar is strong…

Meanwhile, food, oil and gas are skyrocketing…

But hey…at least housing is falling! …erm, wait..that’s not good…

Ron Paul was right and has been for 30 years when it comes to the economy. Anyone with half a brain knows this.

Fed Up

After a super-majority of Ron Paul supporters captured control of the Republican state convention Saturday, state party officials abruptly canceled the event without electing delegates to the national convention.

http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080427/NEWS/804270360/1321?1243567

Ron Paul supporters, I agree with you that John McCain does not deserve the Republican nomination. I applaud your efforts to do everything you can within the law to force a brokered convention.

You may want to look into whether or not you can find any evidence of McCain supporters illegally tampering with the results of the Republican primary in Washington state.

spmat on April 27, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Ok, but even in states that had open primaries, where anyone could vote, Paul didn’t pull much in the way of those independents. That doesn’t say much to me about Paul’s ability to woo independents away from McCain. Quite honestly, in looking at Paul’s base we’re talking about people who aren’t going to vote at all for anyone else. Expecting McCain to woo them or else is to overestimate the Ronulans importance.

As for McCain’s base, he has enough of one to have won the primary against a fairly decent field. Whether it translates to the general or not is certainly an open question, but that’s a question that does not involve Ron Paul or his blimp.

Additionally, many Republican voters have re-registered to vote in the Democratic primary.

When reminded of Barr’s prospective run, Paul noted other minor parties with candidates in the mix. “I have a lot of friends in the Green Party,” he said. “Some [of my backers] may vote for Ralph Nader.”

Based on Paul’s performances in the primary, namely his inability to win majorities or pluralities of people already disposed to vote for him, I see nothing that tells me he’ll suddenly leap to legitimacy in the general.

Who said anything about legitimacy? Or about Paul winning? Or even pulling double digits in the general? Heck, even breaking 5%?

McCain’s only strength is his ability to win independents. That strength is only a strength when it’s first secured by a loyal (“I support John McCain”) or semi-loyal (“F it.. McCain”) base. Sans a Paul 3rd party run, that semi-loyal base is well-disposed to stay stable as a voting block, and as the election approaches, that base then has the ability to solidify into an actual campaign infrastructure. With Paul as an alternative, the weakest parts of the base are likely to use it as an excuse to leave. I.e., “F it, McCain” to “F You, McCain.”

Essentially, Ron Paul as a 3rd party candidate represents a slit in the hose for a campaign that’s currently desperate to maintain hydraulic pressure. Ellsworth has no such worry; neither does Hillary.

My main point, though, is that the predictive value of the above analysis is predicated on whether or not Ellsworth can credibly make it back to the center after his (current) bush-league performance in the primary. Obama could sink his general candidacy by making it impossible for independents to convince themselves that he’s really just “misunderstood,” which they will want to to do once the media has gotten a hold of them.

George Bush’s win in 2004 was far from decisive. That was against the least electable candidate the Democrats had put up since Dukakis, with Bush enjoying a vibrant and extremely active base donating to and working tirelessly on his behalf. McCain has no such base. McCain doesn’t even have Rush Limbaugh.

Heck, all he has here is folks whose best argument is “If you don’t vote for McCain, you’re responsible for the death and dismemberment of this country.” While that may be true, it’s a pretty crappy campaign strategy.

Plus, one of the biggest strengths of Paul has been his irrelevancy. Between his kooky newsletter (and non-denial denials), his earmarks, and his kooky voting record, there’s a lot of fodder there for rather pointed MSM questions that he hasn’t had to face yet. The MSM hasn’t bothered much because he is irrelevant. But that can easily change…

JohnTant on April 27, 2008 at 5:26 PM

yeah, this stuff is probably why he won’t run in general as 3rd party and why so many of his non kool-aide drinking supporters will remain clueless about him.

That’s a lot of protest votes

Suffice it to say that “F*** it, McCain” isn’t the motto of many Ron Paul supporters. And about 75% of the Paul supporters I know would usually be inclined to vote for the Republican nominee, or have in the past. Even if it’s 4%, that could be enough to sink him.

Preemptive retort to the “Hope you enjoy President Obama” people: it’s not my fault that the Republican nominee sucks. Blame the morons who voted for McCain.

Plus, one of the biggest strengths of Paul has been his irrelevancy. Between his kooky newsletter (and non-denial denials), his earmarks, and his kooky voting record, there’s a lot of fodder there for rather pointed MSM questions that he hasn’t had to face yet. The MSM hasn’t bothered much because he is irrelevant. But that can easily change…

*shrug* Might work, might not. Depends on whether Ellsworth can credibly make an end-run to the center after securing the nomination. At this point, he’s made so many unforced errors and proven Shelby Steele so right that I’m not sure he can, even with McCain trying to clear a path for him every chance he gets. But, if Ellsworth does successfully make it to the center, McCain will collapse under the weight of his lack of electability. A Ron Paul 3rd party candidacy will simply buttress that outcome against October surprises from the McCain campaign.

Dude McCain already has enough delegates… wtf..

If this guy retarded or what?

Back to the fishsticks, Dr.P.

He’s an unorthodox Libertarian, maybe, barely. Conservative Republican? No way. Frankly, the guy makes my skin crawl with his appeal to neofascists, incoherent rants about constitutional purity, isolationism and 19th century economics.

McCain’s a nasty old coot who does things (many of them wrongheaded) his way, but he’s light years better than the Chocolate Messiah or Her Cankleness.

Seriously, Paul got more than Huck. If you’re looking for the protest vote, look in the Huck column.

I propose that each and every Conservative demonstrate his or her support for Senator McCain for President by purchasing a “McCain for President,” bumper sticker, or better still, two. Then we should all affix those bumper stickers upside down — as a clear message to the senator. As a former Navy flier, Sen McCain will understand that message only too well. As explained below, displaying an ensign or the American flag upside down is a message of danger. It means, “…a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property.”

Sounds like a plan to me.

McCain won’t be able to handle it because he is a lightweight.

ThackerAgency on April 26, 2008 at 4:18 PM

Speaking of lightweights…..

We deal with the NAACP here all the time. There’s nothing you can do about them but agree with them. So I agree with them. . . McCain is a racist.

ThackerAgency on April 26, 2008 at 2:43 PM

Allahpundit on April 26, 2008 at 1:39 PM

ROFLMAO

media and the dems will attempt to lable Repubs. racist for opposing Obama, and if the moderates buy it we are doomed. but that means anyone running against obama is doomed if too much of the nation are that brain dead and PC.

we must takeover the media.

jp on April 26, 2008 at 5:09 PM

Well, as we’ve seen recently, some Obamites have tried to label the Clintons as racist…so yeah. But, and Thack mentioned that McCain once voted “no” on MLK day as a holiday, it won’t be easy to make any racist stuff stick to McCain.

And I think the voters are tired of the whole racist accusations…especially when they’re baseless.

And no…I don’t want, nor ever expect, a media take-over. I truly want an unbiased media, but then…I’m a dreamer.

JetBoy on April 26, 2008 at 5:07 PM

media and the dems will attempt to lable Repubs. racist for opposing Obama, and if the moderates buy it we are doomed. but that means anyone running against obama is doomed if too much of the nation are that brain dead and PC.

we must takeover the media.

anyone who panders to Alex Jones, politicize the Constitution, flat out Lie about important issues, call Ronald Reagan a traitor, etc. is unfit for command.

McCain has never had to deal with them on anything but the Confederate Flag in South Carolina during the primaries there (and when he voted against MLK day). When he does, he’ll figure it out. We deal with them daily here. I know them. I know how they are. McCain won’t be able to handle it because he is a lightweight.

ThackerAgency on April 26, 2008 at 4:18 PM

Also…I think you give too much credit to the influence wielded by the NAACP. First, blacks voters are, according to all the polls, 85% voting for Obama. Second, remember when Dubya snubbed the NAACP dinner? Did it hurt him, or the GOP?

The NAACP is, has been said, a wing of the Democratic party anyway. Nothing they do or say will hurt the Republican ticket.

Paul is appealing to conservatives because he is absolutely GREAT on many things, he’s honest, and consistent. But he’s a nutjob on social issues and a moron on foreign policy.

I’m not sure I’d use the word “honest” and Paul in the same sentence.

But he has 100% of the Truther, Neo-Nazi, and Anti-Semite vote so…

Gotta look at the positives.

catmman on April 26, 2008 at 4:15 PM

Good point. Paul and his campaign have held out the carrot of their supporters in the past, basically saying that McCain needs to throw them a bone. But the reality is that the vast majority of Paul’s supporters won’t vote for McCain under any circumstances anyway, so it makes little sense to try and extort McCain that way.