Hillary win points out real trouble for Obama, Dems
posted at 7:10 am on April 23, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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In the days before the Pennsylvania primary, undecided Democrats had a real opportunity to end the suspense and get Hillary Clinton out of the race entirely. Polls appeared to show that Barack Obama had that kind of momentum in the Keystone State, until his debate performance killed it. Instead, late breaking deciders supported Hillary by a 16-point margin and she won as handily as she did in Ohio and New Jersey, taking all but the most urban areas of Pennsylvania and exposing Obama as a poor closer once again:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Pennsylvania presidential primary decisively on Tuesday night, running up a 10-percentage-point victory that bolstered her case for staying in the race for the Democratic nomination.
Sen. Barack Obama played down a defeat that did not substantially reduce his delegate lead, but the outcome only further muddled a race that has stretched on for nearly four months and has sharply divided the party. The two will meet again in primaries in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.
An estimated 2 million Democrats voted, nearly triple the number who turned out in the past two presidential primaries in the state. Clinton ran up big margins with her core constituencies, winning white voters with incomes under $50,000 by 32 points, voters over age 65 by 26 percent, and Catholic voters by 38 percent — more than countering Obama’s strong showing among black voters and higher-income whites in Philadelphia and its suburbs. She signaled that despite her dramatic financial disadvantage, she has no intention of getting out before the last votes are cast on June 3.
Obama’s campaign tried to spin the results as acceptable, basically arguing that a ten-point loss doesn’t amount to a landslide and therefore he kept Hillary from winning a moral victory. That doesn’t wash at all. Obama outspent Hillary 3-1 in Pennsylvania and he ended up at about the same place he was at after Ohio. One look at the county map in PA shows the problem. Despite spending tons of money across all of Pennsylvania, he only captured Philadelphia and parts of the suburban counties surrounding it.
Obama has quit resonating with white, working-class families, and small wonder why. After his Crackerquiddick comments and poor debate performance, he has left all but his true believers wondering who he is. Ties to unrepentant terrorists William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn give Obama a radical flavor that negates his earlier assertions of centrism and independent thinking. At the very least, he looks inexperienced and vulnerable despite raising more money than anyone ever has before now.
David Lightman at McClatchy understood the implications as the results began to take shape last night:
Obama, on the other hand, stumbled badly. He outspent Clinton by an estimated 3 to 1. He had six weeks since the last primary to ingratiate himself with people he’s had a hard time wooing: blue-collar whites, small-town residents and older women. Instead, he once again lost the white vote handily and couldn’t put his opponent away.
The momentum that seemed so strong in February, when Obama won 11 contests in a row and seemed on the verge of knocking Clinton out of the race, was all but gone Tuesday.
Also gone, or at least fading, was the feeling among Democratic voters on both sides that either candidate ultimately would be acceptable.
While Democrats remain angry over the Iraq war, the economy and President Bush, they’ve grown less inclined to accept their favorite candidate’s Democratic opponent as a prospective president.
Democrats have discovered an ugly truth: neither of the two candidates left will unite the party, and for good reason. They’re both lousy candidates. People like Obama more on a personal level, but both carry significant negatives now, and both candidates have contributed to them. Hillary Clinton’s Tuzla Dash will guarantee her defeat in November, and if not, Bill Clinton apparently will. Hillary now gets less of the African-American vote than Republicans — only 8% in Pennsylvania. Obama can’t even buy a victory despite having more money than Croesus, and he has lost every big state the Democrats need to win in November.
We have a massive case of buyers remorse, and again we go back to the behavior of the undecideds. A compelling front-runner should have a large majority of late-deciders breaking his way, not away from him. Obama’s supposed inevitability should have swept him into victory at this late stage. If he can’t swing undecided Democrats, he won’t win independents or centrist Republicans in November against John McCain.
Update: Don Surber notes that Hillary has passed Obama in the popular vote, if Michigan and Florida get included. Michigan shouldn’t count — Obama took his name off the ballot — but that “superdelegates should follow the popular vote” argument from Obama supporters may boomerang on them soon.
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Birkenstock ran out of flippers
EricPWJohnson on April 23, 2008 at 7:12 AM
Oddly.. the ultra-lefty site, Democratic Underground, devout (rabid) Obama supporters have no mention of the PA results as of 7AM eastern.
…And please don’t tell me they’re speechless.
heldmyw on April 23, 2008 at 7:24 AM
Nobel laureate Al Gore is waiting in the wings.
sdd on April 23, 2008 at 7:25 AM
Best…analysis…evah!
That was so beautiful, I am typing with tears in my eyes!
Anton on April 23, 2008 at 7:26 AM
… are we actually going to have that Dem Convention brawl we’ve been hoping for?
*fingers cross*
*popcorn popping*
AbaddonsReign on April 23, 2008 at 7:31 AM
They’re both lousy candidates.
Least shocking anaysis of the day. we’ll see how lousy they are in november.
Tom_Shipley on April 23, 2008 at 7:33 AM
Jack and Jill skipped to the polls to cast their vote away
Jill yelled Hill and Jack said Barack
And the Donkey jumped over the shark
EricPWJohnson on April 23, 2008 at 7:40 AM
Ed, everything in your post makes sense. No circle to square.
Then I think about the huge difference in party voters.
The first things that are thrown back at me, by the commenters, are;
A: Republicans have no reason to show up.
B: Historical Dem primary turnout.
Both miss my point. I am not concerned about the difference in the primary vote count, I am concerned about the huge increase in Dem registrations. In Texas it is running 4-1 over 2004. It isn’t just in Texas.
I find it difficult to swallow that 2004 was less important to the Dems then 2008 is. The registration issue truly worries me. I’ve read where Allah claims that 90% of the McNo’s will come home in November. Why does that logic apply to the McNo’s and not to the HillNo and BarryNo crowds on the Dem’s side?
Again, I’m not talking about primary vote difference between the parties, it is the huge increases in registrations and cash that gives me the willys.
I’m not trying to be a smartguy. Anyone who has been around here knows I’m not a ‘complicated’ fella. Just trying to wrap what’s left of my head around this Dems-are-toast argument.
Limerick on April 23, 2008 at 7:55 AM
Poor Bob Casey, Obama’s Catholic outreach committee chair. Loser by association.
Anita on April 23, 2008 at 8:01 AM
Limerick–
I wouldn’t worry too much about the registrations, as those who are registering are either Hillary or Obama supports who won’t vote for the “other guy” when November rolls around.
McCain also has a strong draw with independents, and, hopefully, he’ll be able to shred Hill-rod or Ba-Rock in any debates, highlighting their gigantic missteps during the primary season.
But you’re right to be concerned. Especially for the non-presidential side of things. GOP Senate and House races aren’t shaping up very well, and some aren’t even getting on the ballot.
Nethicus on April 23, 2008 at 8:08 AM
I noticed ABC was starting to frame this race in the sense of “why can’t Obama close it?”. Kirsten Powers was doing it all night on FOXNews. It will be VERY interesting to see how the media props up their guy. I said it before, but I’ll say it again-It’s White voters’ fault for being racist and not understanding Obama’s greatness. THIS is how they’ll approach it.
SouthernGent on April 23, 2008 at 8:09 AM
The big question:
What percentage of new Democrat registrations were Operation Chaos volunteers?
They’re not going to stay Democrats; they’ll change back to Republican.
OC callers to Rush yesterday left the impression their numbers were legion.
MrLynn on April 23, 2008 at 8:13 AM
This whole primary debacle has got to be driving Howard Dean and the rest of the Democratic leadership up the wall. They obviously want this primary thing wrapped up and they want Shillary and Bubba Billy to just go away, but like dogs in a manger, they are not budging. Most likely, the leadership must be praying (to who or what, who knows?) that there will be a B.O. landslide in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, just so they finally have the fodder to tell the Clintonistas to get lost. Otherwise, the upcoming convention in Denver is going to be a nightmare of epic proportions for the entire party.
Not that this would be a bad thing, of course.
pilamaye on April 23, 2008 at 8:13 AM
Thanks Nethicus. Your post illustrates exactly why I will vote for McCain, despite my amnesty misgivings. A Dem pres, married up with both houses, could do a lot of damage in a very short time. Damage that could take decades to undo.
Limerick on April 23, 2008 at 8:14 AM
There might have been a surprise winner other in last night’s primary results. Pennsylvania runs a primary closed to registered party members. The AP reports that one in 10 voting Tuesday had changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they would be eligible to vote in the Democratic race. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party or were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania. The AP story doesn’t provide the breakdown of the 10 percent of voters who changed their party registration to vote yesterday, but I wonder if Rush Limbaugh might have been the surprise winner in Pennsylvania. The results of the Pennsylvania primary appear to represent another triumph of Rush’s Operation Chaos. (powerline)
Keemo on April 23, 2008 at 8:18 AM
IN THE GREEN ROOM…
“Did you just flip me off, Obama?”
“Certainly not, Hillary. I was merely plucking air harp.”
“Don’t mess with me, Barry. I’m the new Politics of Meaning.”
“Hillary, you’re the old Politics of Fear. I represent hope and change.”
“Yeah. Change you can Xerox (cackle).”
“Ha-ha. That was mildly funny the first 567 times I heard it, Hillary. Now it’s cliche-city. Besides, you’re change you can smell.”
“Stow the elitism, Barry. We hardscrabble Pennsylvania waterfowl hunters are fed up with your bullsh**.”
“Hillary, you wouldn’t know which end of a…a…six-shooter to point at a…uh…”
“The f*** I wouldn’t. I was freezing my a** off in a blind and blowing the heads off baby ducks before you were born.”
“Oh, I’m sure you were. Speaking of ducks, Liar, why don’t you go duck some sniper fire? (snicker)”
“Oh, clever, Obama. Clever! The only thing I need to duck is f***ing bowling balls - if you’re in the next lane.”
“That’s it! That’s a cheap shot.” (Removes gold cufflinks and carefully rolls up sleeves)
“Whatcha gonna do, Stick-man, sick your old hatemonger preacher on me? Or your terrorist buddies?”
“Hell no. I got me a trash-talkin’ wife what can whup yo a**, Ho.”
“(Cackle.) I’m so f***ing scared.”
“Iron my shirt, carpetbagger!”
“Hell, I wouldn’t know how to iron this pantsuit. You think I do my own laundry with 109M in the bank?”
“So what is the current exchange rate for laundered Chinese money?”
(Snarling. Brandishing fingernails) “You want a piece of me, Skeletor? I’ll give you something bitter to cling to.”
“Bring it, Beyotch!”
whitetop on April 23, 2008 at 8:21 AM
You can change your party again before the general election in PA. It will be interesting to see how many Republicans switch back.
Before anyone gets too excited about those numbers though, be reminded that a hell of a lot of registered Democrats in the non-urban areas of the state are really Republicans. They all voted for Hillary yesterday but they will vote for McCain in November.
rockmom on April 23, 2008 at 8:22 AM
Mr Lynn, rockmom, Keemo..
Using Keemo’s number of 10%, and guessing here of a 50% Republican stay-home rate that still leaves us 150,000 votes short in PA.
Dem vote 2.2 mil
Rep vote 585k
Limerick on April 23, 2008 at 8:28 AM
Mr. Inevitable, meet Mrs. Inevitable . . .
Irresistible force, meet the immovable object . . .
Alpha male meet his wife in curlers, holding a rolling pin at 3:00 a.m. . . .
Gunslinger meets the sheriff at dawn, outside of the saloon . . .
Aw, forget it, this is really just one jackass fighting the other, over which one of them gets to eat the cowflop that is the Democrat nomination.
NoDonkey on April 23, 2008 at 8:29 AM
I wonder why the reporters on TV keep on saying she can’t win in the popular vote either. It seems to me if she keeps on going and winning and then counts Florida. Yes, she can win the popular. And of course, the Dems wouldn’t nominate someone that didn’t win the popular vote, would they?
terryannonline on April 23, 2008 at 8:36 AM
Yeah? I dunno. Who are they wishing they had voted for? Clinton, who you’re saying cant win in November? Edwards?
…GRAVEL!?! ;)
Dash on April 23, 2008 at 8:36 AM
Haha, well played sir.
Dash on April 23, 2008 at 8:39 AM
Isn’t the dynamic a bit odd that Obama has support from the “hood” and the rich White folk? That really says something about the wealthy mindset of always supporting Republicans. It also makes the Republican party that of the pragmatic, common man.
Hening on April 23, 2008 at 8:41 AM
Hmmmm. Could it be that Barbra Streisand is willing to shun President Bush and refuse to appear at the same event with him, but Obama did not shun admitted terrorists, Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dhorn?
Streisand denies that Bush hatred is the reason for her cancellation, but it is interesting to think about what the Left finds palatable versus what they find execrable.
Buy Danish on April 23, 2008 at 8:42 AM
What do you bet that the Dems completely restructure their primary procedure following this election? You just can’t make this stuff up.
bopbottle on April 23, 2008 at 8:53 AM
The Morning After for the Dems.
“Oh no, why did I buy that Hope&ChangeMobile without looking under the hood!? All it does is wheeze and stall and hesitate and get lousy mileage for tons of money poured into it!”
Barack Edsel Obama.
(Although his ears look more like a gull-winged DeLorean.)
profitsbeard on April 23, 2008 at 8:58 AM
OK, Comrade H.R. Clinton won big over Comrade B.H.Obama during a bloody, disenfranchising, divisive campaign. This suggests neither will get the Brass Ring. A Unifying Presence® will sweep the Denver Convention like an Inconvenient (albeit bogus) Truth. The Democrat Politburo’s selection for President: Oscar® winner, Nobel Political Peace Prize® winner, Four Month Vietnam Combat (Press) Veteran, raised from Birth to become President: Comrade A. Hammer’s own Albert Gore, Junior.
Hollywood, Kosmonauts, ANSWER, Code Pink - ALL of the Democrat Special Interests will rally to the Cause.
SeniorD on April 23, 2008 at 8:59 AM
No doubt, but the system needs to be reformed for both parties. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have far too much power in determining candidates for both parties.
Buy Danish on April 23, 2008 at 9:09 AM
One quibble: it’s not the ‘undecideds’ who are keeping things messy-the culprits are the ‘decideds’.
Doug on April 23, 2008 at 9:32 AM
This primary campaign is giving the dems buyer’s remorse on so many levels, it’s almost amazing to watch. They bought into nasty double-standard racial politics for years, and now they have to call one of their own a racist every time she challenges her opponent. They bought into the bogus argument that Republican candidates’ religious lives are subject to harsh scrutiny and criticism, so now Obama’s “minister” is an issue. They bought into the political strategy of tying a candidate to every unsavory character he’s ever known, so now Obama’s terrorist friends are front and center. They bought into the “count every vote” meme, so now they’ve got Florida and Michigan hanging out there like big old…chads? Far left dems like Hillary and Obama simply cannot win on the issues voters care about — security/defense, free markets, low taxes, illegal immigration — so they created these false issues and now they’re biting them right in the donkey’s arse. It’s been great to watch, but they won’t learn a thing.
Rational Thought on April 23, 2008 at 9:43 AM
Operation Chaos did play a part in the results. I have no doubt about that. To what degree, we can’t know for sure. What struck me was the percentage of Hitlary voters indicated on FOX that would either vote for McCain or stay home if BHO is the nominee. I can’t believe them but the combined number was 45% compared to 19% of BHO voters. That is a huge number!!! I realize it’s like a poll and will certainly change in the general but 45% would either vote for McCain or stay home???? Some of that must be Operation Chaos voters but even half of that percentage, more in line with BHO voter percentages, would be great in November.
libhater on April 23, 2008 at 9:49 AM
Theres a little something wrong with the conventional narrative about the primary race between Clinton and Obama. The notion that this is bad for the Democratic party isn’t entirely accurate because the longer this goes on the more people register to vote… in overwhelming numbers.
Be careful what you wish for if you’re a McCain supporter.
PaulD on April 23, 2008 at 10:18 AM
I posted(and of course was ridiculed in typical moonbat fashion)on ZsaZsa Huffington’s post six months ago that the Dems didn’t have a viable candidate. Same still holds true. At least the moonbats will have four more years(hopefully twelve) to whine..What kind of cheese do eltist Moonbats(Moonrats?) like with their whine?????
adamsmith on April 23, 2008 at 11:02 AM
“Boomerang” you say? If the new kind of politician wins the nomination, and backs out of his public financing pledge, 180 degree movements will apparently be right (or is it “Wright”?) up his alley.
tgharris on April 23, 2008 at 11:14 AM
As I’ve been saying since before the Wright bombshell: the Dems are in serious, serious trouble this election cycle. Even Dems here in Hollywood are telling me privately they’re going to vote McCain. This is gonna be a landslide.
John the Libertarian on April 23, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Well done sketch! I can visualize Obambi with his sleeves rolled up (summoning Michelle to defend him), and Missus Slick with her cackle and claws out.
Somebody needs to dramatize this with a video.
MrLynn on April 23, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Reality Check -
Even with the Democratic Party locked in a fierce civil war, John McCain still hasn’t pulled ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in national polls.
The Democratic primary campaign - divisive, bitter, and seemingly endless - has made many Republicans optimistic about their party’s prospects for retaining the White House this November. But the numbers still seem to tell a different story — and not just secondary indicators like the enormous gap between McCain’s fund raising and the dollars his Democratic rivals are raking in, or the underlying economic realities that will make this a tough year for the GOP no matter what. The polls themselves aren’t running McCain’s way, or at least not to the extent that would justify the current wave of conservative optimism about November.
Now of course no poll taken in April can tell us all that much about a vote that’s held in November: Elections that look close can turn into routs and vice versa, and huge polling margins can vanish in the blink of an eye. (Ask Michael Dukakis how well his seventeen-point margin from early-summer 1988 held up in the end.) But by all rights, this ought to be a peak time for McCain’s numbers - not the peak, necessarily, but certainly a high point. His right-wing critics are making nice with him, his favorable ratings are sky-high, and his opponents are too busy driving each other’s negative ratings upward to spend any time (or money, more importantly) putting a dent in his halo. Moreover, the Democrats’ intra-party tensions are bound to diminish once the party picks a nominee: At least some of the Hillary supporters who tell pollsters that they’d vote for McCain over Obama may actually follow through on that pledge, but a lot of today’s McCainocrats will come home to the Democratic fold when all is said and done.
Yet even with all this going for him, McCain’s poll numbers are bumping up against the same 45 percent ceiling that they’ve been hitting since December. If the election were held today - a pretty good day for McCain, all things considered - he’d probably lose to Obama, and might lose to Clinton as well. That doesn’t mean he will lose, by any stretch, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for November.
— Ross Douthat
MB4 on April 23, 2008 at 1:51 PM
The other day during the waffle incident I pointed out Obama’s unfortunate case of Fred Thompson’s disease. Now it’s starting to look like he’s developed a secondary Romneyitis. The prognosis is grim.
Big S on April 23, 2008 at 2:30 PM
MB4,
While your author makes some good points, the RCP polls show McCain heads up against either candidate with a difference of (at the most) 1.2%. Mac leads Clinton in most polls by 4-5% points. The interesting part is the undecideds are running 4-10% points, which according to many of the past election cycles, will most likely be the difference in who wins the general. While McCains numbers are bumping up against the 45% number as Ross implys, so are his respective challengers. A well played campaign this fall by McCain can put him in the WH, while the damage control of the DNC continues to deminish their chances.
Rovin on April 23, 2008 at 2:35 PM