It all comes down to this …. again

posted at 7:11 am on April 22, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Voters go to the polls in Pennsylvania in a make-or-break Democratic primary today. Wait — where have I heard this before? Oh, yes, in March with Texas and Ohio. Hillary Clinton hopes to win big enough in Pennsylvania after six weeks of simultaneous brawling and whining with Barack Obama to justify another few weeks of the same :

The six-week Pennsylvania primary drew to a contentious finish Monday as Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton invoked images of Pearl Harbor and Osama bin Laden in a television advertisement that questioned Senator Barack Obama’s ability to lead in a crisis.

As she sought to spark a comeback in the Democratic nominating contest, Mrs. Clinton warned voters not to “take a leap of faith or have any guesswork” when they cast ballots Tuesday.

The Obama campaign accused her of employing “the politics of fear.” …

Pennsylvania has become a major battleground in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, with the future of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign most likely resting on the outcome. Even a wide victory by her would not overcome her deficit in pledged delegates or in the popular vote of states that have held nominating contests, but it would ensure that the race moved on to contests in Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, on May 6.

Obama’s complaint about the “politics of fear” certainly proved valid with Obama himself. He abruptly canceled the final scheduled debate in North Carolina, publicly citing scheduling difficulties. On background, his aides spun it as an aggressive attempt to force Hillary out of the race, but everyone else understands that Obama wants to avoid another prime-time beating in front of the nation. It’s hardly complimentary to his sense of courage that Obama wants to start ducking confrontations at this point of the campaign, especially in friendly territory like North Carolina.

Analysts will watch the results closely to determine if Hillary performs well enough to survive. She certainly has to win here in order to keep the party elders from making the long walk and demand her withdrawal. How much of a win does she need to remain credible? Having led in this state by as much as 16 at one point but falling behind in more recent polling, will a thin victory show resilience or weakness?

My prediction: Hillary wins Pennsylvania by eight. I suspect that Obama’s support in Philadelphia will keep him competitive, but the twin blows of Crackerquiddick and his awful debate performance will have convinced Pennsylvanians that Obama needs more experience — a lot more experience. An eight-point victory will legitimately keep Hillary in the race, and allow her to coast past North Carolina and look to Indiana for the next make-or-break. Anything larger will call into question whether Obama might need to start looking at make-or-breaks, too.

We’ll be covering tonight’s primaries in a live blog. Stay tuned!


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CAT scan today, vote later.

Zorro on April 22, 2008 at 7:14 AM

This all just strikes me as so pointless. She cant beat him unless he implodes at this point. She’s not pulling a 20 point win out of her ass.

Dash on April 22, 2008 at 7:15 AM

Of course she can’t win… unless the super delegates steal the nomination from Obama.

That’s not the point.

Operation Chaos is.

Jockolantern on April 22, 2008 at 7:28 AM

Dash:

Dick Morris said as much on Hannity & Colmes last night. It’s statistically impossible for Hillary to match Obama on pledged delegates; they’ll go into the convention with Obama up by at least 100, according to Morris.

But I think what she’s trying to do is close that gap enough to go into the convention (or go to the superdelegates after June 3rd) and say “look, I’ve got the late momentum, Obama has a glass jaw, and if Florida and Michigan had counted, who knows how this race would have turned out… But know that I am more electable than he is.”

What scares the bejeezus out of me is that Obama doesn’t seem to be hurt by any of his scandals, any one of which I submit would have sunk a GOP candidate. (E.g. Giuliani, who, it seems, was hurt pretty badly by the b.s. story about the NYPD providing bodyguard services to his mistress.) I’d attribute that to the media blackout of negative stories on Obama, except that 10-11 million people watched the ABC debate and even that didn’t hurt him badly.

I am getting this sense of dread about the fall and that doesn’t make me happy…

Outlander on April 22, 2008 at 7:30 AM

I’m wondering if at this point Serpenthead Carville is trying to think of a way he can sneak into the B.O. campaign without Shillary knowing about it until it’s too late. Heck, everyone else has.

pilamaye on April 22, 2008 at 7:30 AM

Well Political sports fans,Team Obama is up 1 game,
Team Hillary is praying for a miricle,or to the tune
of Scorpions,”Send me an Angel”!

Here’s my prediction.

Hillary 40
Obama 60.

canopfor on April 22, 2008 at 7:38 AM

Outlander, you and me both…and, there’s no way McCain is going to have what it takes to take him apart.

blue13326 on April 22, 2008 at 7:40 AM

. . .unless the super delegates steal the nomination from Obama.

Jockolantern on April 22, 2008 at 7:28 AM

It is my understanding that the concept of creating the superdelegate was, indeed, to steal an election, if needed, if but for the best interest of the democratic party.

geckomon on April 22, 2008 at 7:40 AM

Hey guys…click this ad about Obama. It’s pretty good.

http://2minuteview.blogspot.com/

LtE126 on April 22, 2008 at 7:42 AM

What’s wrong with employing the “politics of fear”? It is Obama I fear the most. As much as I depise HIllary, she would be better than Obama. He’s nothing but a neo-marx.

bopbottle on April 22, 2008 at 7:43 AM

What scares the bejeezus out of me is that Obama doesn’t seem to be hurt by any of his scandals, any one of which I submit would have sunk a GOP candidate. (E.g. Giuliani, who, it seems, was hurt pretty badly by the b.s. story about the NYPD providing bodyguard services to his mistress.) I’d attribute that to the media blackout of negative stories on Obama, except that 10-11 million people watched the ABC debate and even that didn’t hurt him badly.

I am getting this sense of dread about the fall and that doesn’t make me happy…

Outlander on April 22, 2008 at 7:30 AM

Isn’t this what Obama means when he accuses us(the voting population) as being “hoodwinked and bamboozled?”

geckomon on April 22, 2008 at 7:44 AM

Outlander on April 22, 2008 at 7:30 AM

He’s been hurt. He’s been badly hurt. Maybe not so much with Democrat Primary Voters who are virtually all Moonbats, but with the vast middle of this Country, Obama will be DOA in the General.

TheBigOldDog on April 22, 2008 at 7:44 AM

North Carolina Field Artillary Officer of OPERATION CHAOS here. Wishing a successful mission to all Pennsylvania Secret Operatives. Remember to show up during the middle of the day to make it look as if you don’t work. Also, don’t take a shower, wear that old tie-dye from high school, and to look absolutely miserable or angry while in line. Mega Dittos. Carry On.

THE CHOSEN ONE on April 22, 2008 at 7:45 AM

OPERATION CHAOS

THE CHOSEN ONE on April 22,2008 at 7:45AM.

THE CHOSEN ONE: What will be the go word be?and
when will the go word be given to
commence operations!

canopfor on April 22, 2008 at 7:52 AM

TheBigOldDog on April 22, 2008 at 7:44 AM

Hope you’re right, Dog. I keep thinking back to when I thought the country would pick Dole’s character and honorable life over Slick Willie.

silverfox on April 22, 2008 at 7:55 AM

I’ll be conservative in my estimates and say he looses by 8 to 9 points. And remember guys, there always seems to be 2-3% of voters in this thing who vote “Other”.

Typhonsentra on April 22, 2008 at 7:57 AM

Zorro on April 22, 2008 at 7:14 AM

Hope everything turns out OK.

talking_mouse on April 22, 2008 at 8:02 AM

canopfor on April 22, 2008 at 7:52 AM

In Pennsylvania, OPERATION CHAOS has begun. Orders were given at 1500 Hours yesterday afternoon by General Limbaugh for operatives to vote for Senator Clinton. North Carolina operatives like myself have been ordered to Hold Fire!!! This mission is extremely fluid and could change at any moment. Obama could be caught insulting hard working Tarheels or Hoosiers this week while at a Brie and Chardonnay get together. His prospects could be in ruin. Due to this possibility our orders are to Hold Fire until further orders are given. Carry on.

THE CHOSEN ONE on April 22, 2008 at 8:03 AM

OPERATION CHAOS
THE CHOSEN ONE on April 22,2008 at 7:45AM.
THE CHOSEN ONE: What will be the go word be?and
when will the go word be given to
commence operations!
canopfor on April 22, 2008 at 7:52 AM

Go to rushlimbaugh.com for the go word…

The Old Dog is right; Obama is toast in the general. Have faith in the American people; the very people who Obama despises and looks down on. The heart of this country does not live on either coast!

Clinton wins in Penn today; operation chaos marches forward!

Keemo on April 22, 2008 at 8:10 AM

Her Majesty by a length and a half.

a capella on April 22, 2008 at 8:13 AM

OPERATION CHAOS
THE CHOSEN ONE on April 22,2008 at 8:03PM.

THE CHOSEN ONE: Great scott,brilliant,it was
broadcasted on Rush Limbaugh
show!

They broadcasted on D-Day on the BBC
during World War Two,the go word!

Who would ever thought,they would fall
for it,twice in 60 years!haha

canopfor on April 22, 2008 at 8:18 AM

Zorro on April 22, 2008 at 7:14 AM
Hope everything turns out OK.

talking_mouse on April 22, 2008 at 8:02 AM

Thanks mouse, I really appreciate it. Be back in a few hours.

Zorro on April 22, 2008 at 8:24 AM

Jockolantern on April 22, 2008 at 7:28 AM

What do you mean by steal? I don’t consider it stealing if in fact the rules allow the sd’s to vote for whomever they choose.

I think the entire Democratic primary process is flawed and the superdelegates are an insult to every voter in their party, but it isn’t theft when it is sanctioned by those who know better than the idiots sending them money.

Pam on April 22, 2008 at 8:30 AM

He’s been hurt. He’s been badly hurt. Maybe not so much with Democrat Primary Voters who are virtually all Moonbats, but with the vast middle of this Country, Obama will be DOA in the General.

TheBigOldDog on April 22, 2008 at 7:44 AM

I sure hope you’re right. McCain’s greatest ally may be, ironically, the 527s that will be running clips of the ‘Rev’ Jeremiah Wright and Weatherman Ayers over and over again.

MrLynn on April 22, 2008 at 8:35 AM

I wonder if Denver is starting to regret being picked to host the 2008 Democrat Party Convention?

I bet they are.

jeff_from_mpls on April 22, 2008 at 8:44 AM

Voters go to the polls in Pennsylvania in a make-or-break Democratic primary today. Wait — where have I heard this before? Oh, yes, in March with Texas and Ohio. Hillary Clinton hopes to win big enough in Pennsylvania after six weeks of simultaneous brawling and whining with Barack Obama to justify another few weeks of the same…

With any other candidate, they’d have given up on her and switched all their support to the leader the second he became statistically inevitable.

I suppose it’s not all that rare for politicians to be ego maniacs, who ignore their own setbacks. But for so many Democrats to keep supporting Hillary Clinton after all is long lost?

We keep calling Obama “The Messiah,” but who is it that the Democrats perennially expect to rise from the dead?

logis on April 22, 2008 at 8:52 AM

Hypothetical “What if?”…

If Obama wraps up the Democrat nomination and McCain picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate, what would you folks do?

Red Pill on April 22, 2008 at 8:57 AM

Hey guys…click this ad about Obama. It’s pretty good.

http://2minuteview.blogspot.com/

LtE126 on April 22, 2008 at 7:42 AM

Wow. That was an excellent ad. Do you know where it’s running?

shibumiglass on April 22, 2008 at 9:00 AM

shibumiglass on April 22, 2008 at 9:00 AM

Just imagine what the GOP will do with the library of data they have on this empty suit nothing of a white hating America bashing Muslim living pussy cat…

Keemo on April 22, 2008 at 9:09 AM

While there are swiftboat-loads of material, I’m holding out hope that they’ll use it.
I’m also hoping, for the sake of my sanity, that whoever these BO supporters are will wake up from their unbelievable stupor and abandon the Marxist.

I’m really having trouble believing what I’m witnessing this year.

I had no idea… :(

Thank MM for Hot Air. Whew! It’s nice to know there are still Americans out there with brains, values and morals.

And humor!

shibumiglass on April 22, 2008 at 9:19 AM

He’s nothing but a neo-marx.

And what makes you think Herself! isn’t? If anything, history suggests she is the REAL true believer while Comrade Obama is wrapped around the Black Liberation Theology of his ‘Daddy’.

SeniorD on April 22, 2008 at 9:29 AM

What scares the bejeezus out of me is that Obama doesn’t seem to be hurt by any of his scandals, any one of which I submit would have sunk a GOP candidate. (E.g. Giuliani, who, it seems, was hurt pretty badly by the b.s. story about the NYPD providing bodyguard services to his mistress.) I’d attribute that to the media blackout of negative stories on Obama, except that 10-11 million people watched the ABC debate and even that didn’t hurt him badly.

I am getting this sense of dread about the fall and that doesn’t make me happy…

Outlander on April 22, 2008 at 7:30 AM

McCain will have to do his own work against Obama in the fall, since he’s unlikely to get the sort of help ABC gave Hillary last week by actually questioning Obama on some of his alliances and economic beliefs. But remember there’s a core within the Democratic Party right now that would go into a garment-rendering rapture over the beneficence of their man if Obama got up on the stage tonight after the Pennsylvania results are announced and gave his entire speech in a Donald Duck voice. But as big a group that is within the party, that’s only about 25 percent of the electorate at best; the other 75 percent are either openly hostile or puzzled at the continued phenomenon, even after all the recent gaffes.

One of McCain’s biggest supporters among D.C. politicians is Joe Lieberman, which is kind of appropriate, because Obama’s supporters look and act like those of Ned Lamont, who was able to beat Lieberman in the 2006 Connecticut Democratic primary but then got crushed by Joe in November, once everyone had a chance to vote.

jon1979 on April 22, 2008 at 9:31 AM

What scares the bejeezus out of me is that Obama doesn’t seem to be hurt by any of his scandals, any one of which I submit would have sunk a GOP candidate

Agreed, but I would add that his base is the more liberal wing of the Democratic party. His problem becomes more apparent when Clinton is out of the race and poll numbers begin to show that 10-20% of those who supported her are now backing McCain. I think he’s likely going to loose the labor Democrats.

Obama’s problem is that each of these stories seems to pick at the same scab and revolve around radical politics or radical racist dogma which will tend to turn off labor Democrats.

In short, I think his problems will only come into focus and magnify once the general election comes into play.

moxie_neanderthal on April 22, 2008 at 10:07 AM

moxie_neanderthal on April 22, 2008 at 10:07 AM

good god, i hope so. i am just as afraid as the others here of a messiah in the white house. fingers crossed…

homesickamerican on April 22, 2008 at 10:33 AM

I am very curious to see how much of an effect Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos has on this.

Jay on April 22, 2008 at 10:53 AM

To a thinking person, a candidate’s refusal to debate would speake voulmes. I’m not sure what it says to the present electorate. They might even think it a good thing since those mean reporters won’t be able to dis their great leader in public. It would be a kick if her campaign chose a stand in to reflect the views of the Messiah as closely as possible and went ahead and had the debate. I think you could do that if it was a white man. I don’t know what the present rules are regarding a half black, half white man. Or you could have some kind of audio thing there that, every time it was Barack’s turn to speak could just say, “Quit distracting me.”

snaggletoothie on April 22, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Politics of fear, UNITE!

Reaps on April 22, 2008 at 1:32 PM

If Obama wraps up the Democrat nomination and McCain picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate, what would you folks do?

Red Pill on April 22, 2008 at 8:57 AM

Not vote for Huckabe.

Entelechy on April 22, 2008 at 1:43 PM

If Obama wraps up the Democrat nomination and McCain picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate, what would you folks do?
Red Pill on April 22, 2008 at 8:57 AM

I would try really, really hard to act surprised.

logis on April 22, 2008 at 3:30 PM