Leaked internal poll shows Hillary up 11 in Pennsylvania
posted at 1:33 pm on April 21, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Why would someone on her team be circulating data showing a double-digit lead when even reliable pollsters like Survey USA have it close (and others have her behind)? Is there some benefit to raising expectations that I’m missing? All it does is make it easy for the media to frame a close win as a de facto loss while giving those late deciders she’s banking on an excuse to stay home or toss a sympathy vote at Obama to keep him from getting blown out. No wonder her advisors think it’s a dirty trick. Any theories? Per that TNR piece about her disgruntled campaign staff, is this maybe an honest to goodness case of sabotage?
For that matter, who thought it’d be a good idea to book her on Olbermann’s show tonight, practically daring him to go after her and prove what a rootin’ tootin’ truth-to-power nutroots gunslinger he is? Normally I’d expect nothing less than total obsequiousness from Olby, even though he’s been demagoging her for weeks, but the chance to sandbag her on the eve of the primary and thereby forever endear himself to the left should be enough to squeeze a tough interview even out of him.
Meanwhile, none of this matters because Pelosi et al. are planning to push her out of the race in June anyway. Quote: “Another Democrat who has spoken several times with him says Mr. Gore favors Sen. Obama and has come under pressure from former supporters to endorse the Illinois senator, but has no plans to do so before the primaries end.” Could the ultimate betrayal, by BJ’s own VP, be enough to push some of those sore-loser Hillary supporters firmly into the McCain column? Byron York sees potential, but as our favorite liberal reminds us, an even greater percentage of McCain’s supporters in 2000 swore they wouldn’t vote for Bush than the percentage of Hillary’s supporters who swear they won’t vote for Obama. How’d that work out?
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Gore’s good at betrayal. He ran against the Clinton legacy in 2000 and lost, and then threw his VP under a bus in 2004 and saw his endorsee lose.
Ed Morrissey on April 21, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Yeah, I don’t doubt that he’d do it. I’m just wondering if it’ll matter to Hillary’s supporters.
Allahpundit on April 21, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Gore endorse someone he thinks will win and do what he couldn’t?
Limerick on April 21, 2008 at 1:37 PM
In 2000 after George Bush smeared John McCain in South Carolina with contemptible lies, I sat out politics, including the election, until September 11, 2001. President Bush lost the popular vote.
Hillary’s supporters don’t need to vote for McCain, they just need to stay home.
JayHaw Phrenzie on April 21, 2008 at 1:38 PM
I still think Hillary is running with the idea of hamstringing Obama in the fall and then in 4 years running against McCain in 2012. Im sure she knows she cant win the nomination this year.
She is holding on as long as possible to damage Obama.
William Amos on April 21, 2008 at 1:40 PM
The sheeple like to go with a winner. The psychological pull on the truly weak-minded (which unfortunately is that big, fatty part of the bell curve when you look at American IQ’s) will pull a vacillator over to the side of who they think is winning.
JustTruth101 on April 21, 2008 at 1:52 PM
I think the “bitter small-town Pennsylvanians” comments from Obama will do him in.
newton on April 21, 2008 at 1:56 PM
Great…
Claypigeon on April 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM
The euphoria won’t last long. She has yet to rack up even a single semi-decent endorsement. Plus she is losing superdelegates hand over fist with each passing minute.
pilamaye on April 21, 2008 at 2:01 PM
I knew a lot of those supporters. They were the opposite of the “operation chaos” people this year. They (the ones I knew)had no intention of voting for McCain in November anyway. They did get caught up in the atmosphere of conspiracy though. They made all kinds of strange statements during that campaign. One went to the extent that he was actually a Reagan democrat whom Bush turned back to the democrat party. When earlier he had bragged about never having voted for a republican. And two years after the 2000 election, had transformed back into never having voted for a republican.
cozmo on April 21, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Olberdouche recently smacked her pretty good with one of his lame, long and drawn-out special comments.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict his onions turn into raisins during tonight’s one-on-one on Countdown.
fogw on April 21, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Obama’s going to get thumped tomorrow, 15 points at least
windansea on April 21, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Seeing as how this is Drudge, I’m thinking this might be a leak on her team’s part. I might go as far as to say Drudge is making it up to hurt her.
Typhonsentra on April 21, 2008 at 2:17 PM
The problem is 11% will not be enough. Hillary needs a beatdown to the tune of 15%-20%. That type of victory will still not help in the delegate count, but it will garner the “buzz” she will need to continue the fight. Thanks for the Oralmann heads-up, I might have to tune in. Krazy Keith will be expected to draw blood, and I am sure he will try.
chief on April 21, 2008 at 2:17 PM
I think it’s silly to expect Keith to outright attack her. He strikes me as the Jon Stewart type. Polite to your face, only getting angry and self-righteous once you’re not in the room.
Typhonsentra on April 21, 2008 at 2:21 PM
That KO appearance is a bit strange. I expect KO to be less than confrontational. DU was also saying that she’s supposed to be on Larry King too. I’m surprised that she didn’t book a Factor appearance and pick a fight with O’Reilly.
rw on April 21, 2008 at 2:23 PM
In another new poll in Pennsylvania, Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research (April 20, 747 LV) has Clinton holding the 10-point lead she held in the previous poll taken 2 weeks ago.
Clinton 49
Obama 39
Und 12
http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/
1 day away and undecided is 12%!!
bnelson44 on April 21, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Here in PA, the latest poll that I saw on the local news at noon had Hillary up 51 to 46.
matthewbit07 on April 21, 2008 at 2:24 PM
I agree that its stupid an possibly a sabotage effort but assuming it is sincere I guess the logic would be related to momentum. Democrat primary voters who are “on the fence” (ie. morons) hear about this lead and translate that to mean that she has regained frontrunner status. She begins to toss out references to “the comeback kid” and a new storyline is formed. Comeback kid/Obama is damaged and can’t win the general talking points might be their attack strategy. It won’t work and I agree it was a mistake to leak this.
Zetterson on April 21, 2008 at 2:25 PM
I always wanted to do a scientific study when I was in college about the effect of polling data on how people vote. But I’m lazy and didn’t press my professor when he told me it was a poor thesis.
But is it a bandwagon effect where you vote for the winner?
Or is it an underdog effect where you think your vote will help more if you think they need more votes?
I’ve pondered this for at least 15 years and I think they need to do studies over it. I concluded without doing the study that polls should not be taken in case they might influence the ACTUAL VOTE one way or the other. But of course, the media lives for polls and now with the blogs, it will always be an inevitable part of the process (as meaningless as they all may be).
ThackerAgency on April 21, 2008 at 2:28 PM
When? In the primary or in the general?
Zetterson on April 21, 2008 at 2:29 PM
I bet their internal polls show it close too, and if it turns out to be close then they’re done anyway. This is manufactured momentum aimed at the media.
ninjapirate on April 21, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Hillary has both going for her here, although Obama’s bandwagan effect might be just as powerful for those already looking at the general election.
ninjapirate on April 21, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Democrats cannot unite America when they cannot unite a party!
Chakra Hammer on April 21, 2008 at 2:34 PM
I agree William Amos. She either has some electrified super dirt that she is saving for the last minute or she is trying to damage Obama to the point that he can’t win against McCain. How anybody can support this horrid woman will forever baffle me.
Zetterson on April 21, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I think practically everyone knows she done. I think at this point they are just waiting for the process to play itself out, as it should. And I’m sure the Hillary camp is just hoping for another gaffe by Obama but nothing sticks to him. So it’s pointless.
terryannonline on April 21, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Keith won’t attack her until after the interview is over and she’s gone from the set or the satellite hook-up, though he will throw in a grumpy question or two, just to avoid charges by his (and Obama’s) true believers that he’s another George Stepanopolous sellout to the evil GOP.
As for the poll numbers, it does seem like only someone trying to dampen down her spin if she wins would have anything to gain by releasing this poll (any DNC/Democratic Congressional operatives on the Clinton staff? If you believe the leaders there want her out, then they would have an reason to dump those figures out to try and either downplay a win like that, or alert Barak’s supporters that they need to turn out on Tuesday).
Depending on what type of play it gets tonight, Hillary’s probably going to have to win by 15 points now to make her post-Pennsylvania spin effective. Anything less than that and the Obama backers can say the result was already expected, and any single-digit win would be painted as an actual loss (though it would probably take an actual loss to really get the chorus going for the missus to quit the campaign).
jon1979 on April 21, 2008 at 2:40 PM
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Wolfson_on_Drudge_poll.html
ninjapirate on April 21, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Hillary is only gonna listen to people in her inner circle people like Bill, Terry McAuliffe, Rendell, Rahm Emmanuel or some of her big name black supporters. Al Gore is gonna have zero impact on her. MYMag had a piece about why Silky Pony hadn’t endorsed anyone, but they were also reviewing what it would take to talk down Hillary. Yes, I’m making you click to one of my old posts, I may as well try and get some traffic.
doubleplusundead on April 21, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Both, at least in PA, this Bitter Pennsylvanian would lay money on it.
doubleplusundead on April 21, 2008 at 2:43 PM
So, in other words, you view that gaff as Hillary’s ticket to win the nomination? I sure hope you are wrong because I am so looking forward to seeing the Clintons lose this primary.
Zetterson on April 21, 2008 at 2:47 PM
It doesn’t say, and I wasn’t following politics back then, but did McCain really have enough supporters to even make a difference in 2000?
Obama and Clinton are still very close. Were Bush and McCain that close?
Esthier on April 21, 2008 at 2:49 PM
The longer Hillary and Obama duke it out, the more the nutroots will separate from the Democrats who are truly normal people, whom you don’t mind living next to. Let Hillary go on Olbermann; it’ll turn the normal Democrats off to him and his lunacy.
brb, gotta run to the lobby and get more popcorn.
windbag on April 21, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Well I sure do hope so as my job is hard enough as it is without her suffering yet another setback.
She has recently been experiencing what some now days call, I believe it is PTSS, about her days facing heavy combat as a Marine in Bosnia. She has been having flashbacks of facing sniper fire and even sustained hand to hand combat. She is still grieving over the loss of one of her fellows, a man she calls Sinbad, whom she tried heroically to save, but could not. Then when I had her under hypnosis to try to regress her into any previous lives she may have lived I found even more battles that she had endured. Such as her being straight shooting hard drinking Annie Oakley fighting off wild Indians and even wilder Klingons to save a still young America. And in her past life before that one she related to me how she was at the Alamo in some place called Texas with her second in command a General Patton she said his name was, and the two of them had to single handedly fight off hordes of Giant Vikings to save North America. She must be a very strong woman to have been through all that and still be running for President against now great odds while having to relive all those horrors. And then there is having to deal with that cheating husband of hers with whom she has a very unhealthy love/hate relationship. Poor woman, I do not know how much longer she can go without a complete crack up. If she loses in Pennsylvania I fear that we may lose her completely.
Sigy on April 21, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Plus she is losing superdelegates hand over fist with each passing minute.
Really? where?
I R A Darth Aggie on April 21, 2008 at 3:26 PM
And I’m sure the Hillary camp is just hoping for another gaffe by Obama but nothing sticks to him. So it’s pointless.
It’s statements like this that remind me of a Wayne Gretzky quote about hockey You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
That said, Hillary can’t win outright. But neither can Barak. Staying the course is her only chance of gaining the Presidency. If she doesn’t secure the nomination in Denver, she’ll never secure it - that window will slam shut.
And to borrow another hockey term, she’s playing with desperation. While that sounds bad, it means that they aim to make everything count: every speech, every stop, every ad.
Obama should try that, sometime.
I R A Darth Aggie on April 21, 2008 at 3:36 PM
brb, gotta run to the lobby and get more popcorn.
If you whine loudly enough, Hillary and Barak will send someone to bring you more popcorn, as long as you’re registered to vote…
I R A Darth Aggie on April 21, 2008 at 3:38 PM
My guess is that someone will give Olberwhatever a bomb to drop on Hillary tonight.
faraway on April 21, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Terry Ann, I think you should have said nothing is sticking to Obama among Democrat primary voters. Rove will not even break a sweat defining this empty suit. Hell, he might even have you thinking Obama is bring a “New Communist Revolution” to America.
chief on April 21, 2008 at 4:10 PM
There aint no natural way Obama wins the general election. People will lie to the poles, but Obama is just another Jesse Jackson / Al Sharpton in intellectual clothing.
Now that the “buyers remorse” with him goes into action, he will be drug out into the sunshine and completely exposed.
He is blowing it on several fronts because he is WAY over his head. His tax statements during the last debate were telltale. He is lost and completely dependent on his handlers for thought leadership.
Nice try.
saiga on April 21, 2008 at 4:25 PM
If he does it, he’s mean, if he doesn’t he’s a wuss. Of course, the Clintons know full well that he is both. Those who know him well, and I know a few people who know him very well, say he’s one of the meanest SOBs to breathe air.
You meant pearl/cocktail onions, I’m pretty sure.
Entelechy on April 21, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I said this long ago and Hillary, being the predictatble pathological liar and power-mad sociopath, has done exactly as I anticipated.
Hillary Clinton exists only for her own power and her own glory. She will do anything, ANYTHING to hold onto power. She will send her own staffers under the bus, she will undermine her own party, and she will ravage anyone’s reputation in order to grasp power for herself.
Let me assure you, if Hillary doesn’t pull off the nomination, you can bet Hillary will drag Obama down into the depths of hell with her, and show every single Democrat pol what happens when you oppose the Clintons. In Clintonworld, they ARE the Democratic Party, and everyone else will toe the line or lose their heads (politically and/or literally).
BKennedy on April 21, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Hillary is HOT!!!!
or not
Roger Waters on April 21, 2008 at 5:55 PM