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Gallup poll: Obama fading

posted at 4:47 pm on April 19, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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National poll results don’t mean much in April, since more than 40 states have already held their primaries, but Gallup’s trends may hold more significance than the remaining primaries indicate. Barack Obama lost the top spot to Hillary Clinton for the first time in a month, and after Wednesday’s debate performance, the trend may become even more pronounced:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup’s daily tracking since March 18-20.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead.

Assuming this holds up, the results could spell trouble for Obama. Hillary has been trying to make the electability argument for several weeks among the superdelegates. If Obama continues to decline in national polling, that argument could resonate, especially given the steep decline this month in Obama’s polling He has lost seven points in the last two weeks, six of those in the last four days. That could give considerable heartburn to the superdelegates, who may very well wonder whether Obama’s terrible performance this week could presage a complete general-election collapse.

Obama has to show that he can handle tough questioning, and not just to get through the primaries against Hillary Clinton. He can keep claiming to have been victimized by ABC, but Americans don’t usually elect people for whining. He has to overcome a little hostility from the press, or voters will rightly wonder whether he can handle himself under much more pressure once ensconced in the White House. Even the superdelegates may be asking themselves that question.


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He can keep claiming to have been victimized by ABC

Where did he do that? And a link please. All he’s been lamenting is the fact that ABC waited 50 minutes to talk about any issues that affect the American people.

I’m still waiting for you Republicans to yell about the next thing that will dooooooom the Democratic Party.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Obama: “Pay no attention to that unqualified, unaccomplished Marxist behind the curtain.”

ReubenJCogburn on April 19, 2008 at 4:55 PM

Looks like the party-goers needed to see Obama fallible in his own words to jump ship, and they’ve heard plenty in the last couple of weeks. You gotta wonder though… if Hillary gets the nomination, what’s MoveOn.org going to do?

Buckiteer on April 19, 2008 at 4:56 PM

ReubenJCogburn on April 19, 2008 at 4:55 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

Nonfactor:

Where did he do that? And a link please. All he’s been lamenting is the fact that ABC waited 50 minutes to talk about any issues that affect the American people.

You mean like, oh, “character” and “judgment,” things that Obama has made central to his campaign?

Nice try, but your prophet has feet of clay.

irishspy on April 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM

National poll results don’t mean much in April

So why bother drawing conclusions from them then?

Grow Fins on April 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM

irishspy on April 19, 2008 at 4:59 PM

I love the “absence” of “links” in your post.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:00 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

As opposed to what the Dhims have in mind for us if they take the White House? Personally I would prefer 4 more years of Bush over the nightmare Obama would bring.

Guardian on April 19, 2008 at 5:04 PM

Guardian on April 19, 2008 at 5:04 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

No, we really want 4 more years of some lying unbelievably inexperienced racist sleazeball who’s even more clueless than Jimmy Carter ever was.

TexasJew on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

The more you see the less you like - unless you’re part of the Obamamob, in which case you can’t actually see Obama on account of the bright glow he seems to emit.

kc8ukw on April 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM

Obama is a distraction from the real business of the nation.

He should just fade away, back to being a “community organizer” and stirring up the bigotry and sense of entitlement of his Chicago admirers in his church-of-what’s-happening-now.

onlineanalyst on April 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM

nonfactor, link please

faraway on April 19, 2008 at 5:08 PM

72% of the country disagrees

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

72% of the country has never been polled. That’s why polls in and of themselves are so meaningless. Any poll can reflect whatever outcome you want.

Don’t be so gullible.

Guardian on April 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM

man, these Dem implosions are fun to watch, I’m having a ball …And it’s only April so still plenty’O'fun left ..
:)

redrock on April 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM

I love the “absence” of “links” in your post.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:00 PM

Obama doesn’t complain or attack by himself. He’s got a campaign to do that for him. Which, like I said,

Looks like the party-goers needed to see Obama fallible in his own words to jump ship, and they’ve heard plenty in the last couple of weeks.

And let’s “not” forget “this“:

“They like stirring up controversy and they like playing gotcha games, and getting us to attack each other,” he said.

Sounds like he feels victimized to me, especially since Clinton’s not complaining about it right now. In fact, she’s revelling in it. Also, I don’t recall Obama jumping in to defend Clinton when she was complaining about the uneven treatment.

All these “distractions.” But so it goes. And now, not in Obama’s favor.

Buckiteer on April 19, 2008 at 5:11 PM

72% of the country has never been polled. That’s why polls in and of themselves are so meaningless. Any poll can reflect whatever outcome you want.

Guardian on April 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM

Still doesn’t matter, 72% of the country would not chose Obama over Bush. Surprise, surprise, Nonfactor’s lying.

lowandslow on April 19, 2008 at 5:12 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Ha, we’re looking forward to it now. Mondale-lite or the Shameless Liar. We thank you.

Buckiteer on April 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM

If Hillary happens to win the presidency, which I hope to god doesn’t happen, watching her get even with all the dems that jumped ship to Obama will be priceless. More popcorn?

trs on April 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM

still waiting on a link for your main premise……

faraway on April 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM

I don’t think any of this is meaningful at this point. There is no way that Obama is *not* going to be the nominee.

We’ve seen the way the Obamabots reacted to the ABC debate. The Dems know that the Obamabots will burn down Denver if that’s what it takes. The O.bots are on a mission. It is their turn. 2008 will be a Dem year, therefore the task is simply to chose the most liberal person that they can and that will be it. They see the election itself as just a formality.

And to give that to Clinton is not in the cards. The Dems will not distroy their own party.

We need to worry about our own ground game in November. Make sure we get the turnout. The O.bots will be fired up.

r keller on April 19, 2008 at 5:15 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

As opposed to 4 more years of Jimmy Carter policies?

72% of the country disagrees.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

You demand links when we claimed he whined, but you pull numbers out of the air for what the country agrees/disagrees with.

And it’s your assumption that McCain would be 4 more years of Bush. They disagree on several major issues (think interrogation, global warming).

amerpundit on April 19, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Your little candidate just got bitchslapped by Hillary, and spent the rest of the week crying about it.
What a weak pathetic little turd. And of course, Gibson was right - it’s stupid to raise taxes in a recession. Over 100,000,000 Americans own stocks, and most of this nation’s retirement funds are in the stock market.
And blubber boy wants to raise all those people’s taxes as soon as he gets into office. Brilliant.
Can you imagine BHO talking to Iran? Or protecting this country? He gets his rear-end kicked by George Stephanopoulis! And whines and whines. What a wimp!

Oh and speaking about polls, Hillary is now back kicking his ass on the latest Gallup. But that’s irrelevant. Most adults in this country will not vote for such a fatuous nullity.

TexasJew on April 19, 2008 at 5:18 PM

You know, I keep thinking that I’d rather see Obama against Mc Cain. My instincts tell me, Shillary ain’t gonna be easier.

MNDavenotPC on April 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM

The deflation of exposure.

Exposure, or unveiling. The Emperor is nakid.

I’m still waiting for you Republicans to yell about the next thing that will dooooooom the Democratic Party.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Your wish is my command.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

I would gladly accept 4 more years of Bush. Unless sounder minds in congress keep them in check, Obama or Clinton will ruin this county.

Rod on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

49% of the country think the other 49% are morons.

Obama is angling for the undecided 2% idjit vote.

Hectoring with his meaningless mantra of “Change we can believe in” and proving himself, day by day, to be one more hack political panderer who promises them anything, and won’t even deliver Arpege.

The Dems have eviscerated one another and left a hole for McCain to dash through and claim the presidency as the HillBama devotees mudwrestle over authenticity and identity.

Barry and Hilly did Rove’s work for him.

He should send them both cheap bottles of bubbly.

profitsbeard on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

This is even more significant than it might at first seem. Many Democrats favor Obama because they realize that he’s probably going to be the nominee anyway. Everyone wants to be happy with the things that are, and everyone wants to support a winner. And no one wants to regret either their decision or the decision others have stuck them with. Psychologically speaking, if 46% of Democrats are willing to admit to both themselves and pollsters that they prefer the alternative to Obama (more than the 45% willing to be for Obama), that means there’s a lot more opposition to Obama is out there among Democrats than even pollsters are able to get.

calbear on April 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM

Your wish is my command.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

*snort/dr. pepper/paper towel scramble*

RushBaby on April 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Obama = 4 more years of Jimmy Carter

Chakra Hammer on April 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup’s daily tracking since March 18-20.

And Newsweek has Obama ahead of Clinton by 19%.

RCP averages, probably better to go by as they average several polls rather than just picking one, has Obama ahead of Clinton by 7.7%.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:34 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Thjey why worry when you have Obama already elected without even holding an election. Or are liberals truely afraid of losing ?

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 5:39 PM

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:34 PM

Only 3 of RCP’s polls in the average were taken since the debate. One of them is the Newsweek poll you mentioned, which both Rasmussen and Gallup show to be an outlier.

amerpundit on April 19, 2008 at 5:40 PM

I think it’s significant because I’m not sure what he can do to move back up in the polls. He doesn’t seem to even get why people are unhappy with what he said and who he associates with.

Sure, the headlines will die down, but what are the new headlines going to be? Some new policies or positions? Doubtful. More of him and her attacking each other? Chances are she’ll do better at that!

MamaAJ on April 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Is it me, or are our trollish friends making their way back to HA? We have missed you guys since the debate. What happened, have you built back up your “couwage”? I think Barack’s supporters also got their “widdle feewings” hurt on Wednesday.

chief on April 19, 2008 at 5:43 PM

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:54 PM

yeah funny how the dems lose poll numbers when their true character comes out. Face it you can not sell communism to the masses in the USA. Not after the fruits of capitalism are seen. While I agree the best economy is one with a mixture of capitalism and some socialism to negate the downside of capitalism. That is a very long way off from what HRC and BHO are selling. with 10 million veiwers for the last debate it was probably better for the dems that they didn’t talk much about their communism agenda.

unseen on April 19, 2008 at 5:44 PM

BTW here is favorible/unfavorible today from Rasmussen

04/19/2008 Fav Unfav
John McCain 56% 40%
Hillary Clinton 45% 53%
Barack Obama 47% 51%

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 5:44 PM

MB4, if you wish for McCain to lose, and for Obama not to win, who’re you for?

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:45 PM

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

Exquisite! One perfectly placed hard body shot, and the groupies run for cover.

a capella on April 19, 2008 at 5:45 PM

49% of the country think the other 49% are morons.

profitsbeard on April 19, 2008 at 5:29 PM

… and all are right.
- Arthur Schopenhauer

This rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane morons [updated].
- Mark Twain.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:47 PM

MB4, if you wish for McCain to lose, and for Obama not to win, who’re you for?

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:45 PM

As of this moment of action, I am for a Klingon takeover of the Earth. Failing that, The End Days.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:49 PM

Obama = 4 more years of Jimmy Carter
Chakra Hammer on April 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM

More like four years of 1/3 jimmy carter, 1/3 Al Sharpton 1/3 Louis Farrakhan.

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

Hate to break it to you but Bush isnt running for office.

Nice attempt to dodge however its a failure.

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 5:51 PM

This was the perfect weekend to rent

THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE (1962)

I think the Obamboozler is still at that “garden party…”.

Lockstein13 on April 19, 2008 at 5:52 PM

Anything that is embarassing or hard for Obama to explain is a “distraction from the issues that the American people are concerned about.”

Lightweight.

Cicero43 on April 19, 2008 at 5:55 PM

I had posted this comment in one of the headline threads, but rededicate it here, with great pleasure, to my friend, the great Nonfactor, who so eager with anticipation claimed:

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what America(n) really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

fellow Americans tell pollsters they’re deeply worried about the country’s direction…

Real worries:

- winning the war on terror
- security
- illegal immigration
- economy
- social security
- same or better future for their kids
- taxes
- jobs
- right to possess arms

Agitprop worries:

- the BS Obama and Hillary made up, spew, knowing full well that they won’t deliver, i.e. job security for all, paid for health care for all, houses for all, pardoning mortgages for all, closing Guantanamo, rights for crooks, criminals and terrorists, decisions made by U.N. and international courts, lalalalalalalalalalalala….di…da…

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:55 PM

As of this moment of action, I am for a Klingon takeover of the Earth.

I, for one, welcome our carapace-headed overlords.

Insomniac on April 19, 2008 at 5:57 PM

04/19/2008 Fav Unfav
John McCain 56% 40%
Hillary Clinton 45% 53%
Barack Obama 47% 51%

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 5:44 PM

And there was another recent poll that had as I recall (favorable - unfavorable) Obama +21, McCain +10 and Clinton +2 (or maybe it was -2).

The polls are all over the lot.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Someone diluted the snake-oil!

Bicyea on April 19, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Rush, you magnificent bastard!!!!

NoFanofLibs on April 19, 2008 at 5:58 PM

I think it’s significant because I’m not sure what he can do to move back up in the polls. He doesn’t seem to even get why people are unhappy with what he said and who he associates with.

Sure, the headlines will die down, but what are the new headlines going to be? Some new policies or positions? Doubtful. More of him and her attacking each other? Chances are she’ll do better at that!

MamaAJ on April 19, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Yeah, he’s in a position where he has to put out some specifics on his policy platforms. When he does, it comes out Marxist. He’s been allowed to dance along on rhetoric too long, and now he has to spell it out. The capital gains issue in the debates was a perfect example of this. He wants to use taxation as a wealth redistribution tool rather than to bring in revenue based on economy stimulation. He got caught and now has to either admit his agenda and change policy, or try to brazen it on through. He’s in a bind.

a capella on April 19, 2008 at 5:59 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

Darling, your balloon will be deflated, and you and yours won’t find a couch big enough to cure you. HA won’t find a baby big enough to function as your mascot.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:00 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Because Bush has 28% approval ratings that means 72% oppose McCain? What are we in third grade again?

Let’s see, 11% of Americans polled give Congress thumbs up. I guess that means 89% will vote for a Republican Congress?

They give computers out to anyone nowadays, I guess.

SteveMG on April 19, 2008 at 6:04 PM

I posted this before, but will, due to unpopular demand, post it again.

How will McCain handle the question that Ronald Reagan asked when debating Jimmy Carter, “Are You Better Off”?

The price of gasoline in 2001 was $1.39 per gallon. Now, it’s $4. The number of Americans lacking health insurance was 38 million; now, it’s 47 million. The national debt was $5.7 trillion in 2001; now, it’s $9.2 trillion. The dollar was worth 1.07 euro; now, it’s .68.

And so on: The poverty rate, college costs, take-home pay, personal indebtedness, foreign oil dependency and the trade deficit all are worse than they were when Bush took office.

In the GW debate, Emanuel and fellow Democrats Steve Israel (N.Y.), Artur Davis (Ala.) and Robert Andrews (N.J.) pummeled Republicans Putnam, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), Paul Ryan (Wis.) and Eric Cantor (Va.) with the numbers, and the Republicans had no refutation to make.

Democrats will do the same to McCain, and he’d better get ready with answers. Although polls now show him running virtually even with both of his Democratic rivals, Democrats think that the 2008 update on Ronald Reagan’s famous question from 1980 - when he trounced Jimmy Carter - eventually will prove devastating to McCain, too.
- Mort Kondracke

I know that most of that is not Bush’s or Republican’s fault, although some of it is, but whom do you think folks are going to blame?

Themselves? Nope.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:05 PM

Ya got ta brush… those… polls off ya shoulders…

Jim Treacher on April 19, 2008 at 6:06 PM

profitsbeard, it’s not “Change we can believe in“, it’s “Change we wish to happen“. They don’t believe what he says either. It’s all so Utopian. I know it well from all over Europe:

- Capitalism is bad
- Capitalism causes world hunger
- America is the world monster
- Ethanol is a good alternative, until it’s a bad one, because that corn could feed the hungry of the world now
- Energy is too cheap, until all of a sudden it’s too expensive
- Accountability is not for the poor
- Accountability isn’t for the billionaires either
- Every conservative U.S. leader is bad, and every liberal one is JFK, were it not for lack of their Jackies.

I can write you novels about their idiocy, hypocrisy, PC, BS, multi-culti, elitism, superiority, and idalistic hands-folded yapping, without doing much else, because the ‘government’ keeps providing.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:08 PM

I’m still waiting for you Republicans to yell about the next thing that will dooooooom the Democratic Party.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Yah, about that….you might want to grab a life preserver, or a violin and join the rest of the string ensemble on the poop deck as the “Uncle Joe Stalin” slips beneath the waves.

Hening on April 19, 2008 at 6:08 PM

I’m still waiting for you Republicans to yell about the next thing that will dooooooom the Democratic Party.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:54 PM

We don’t have to wait for the “next thing” that will doom the Dims; it’s already here, and it’s name is Barack Hussein Obama.

AZCoyote on April 19, 2008 at 6:09 PM

72% of the country has never been polled. That’s why polls in and of themselves are so meaningless. Any poll can reflect whatever outcome you want.

Don’t be so gullible.

Guardian on April 19, 2008 at 5:09 PM

Don’t be so gullible? But that would wipe away 72% of liberals :)

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM

And there was another recent poll that had as I recall (favorable - unfavorable) Obama +21, McCain +10 and Clinton +2 (or maybe it was -2).

The polls are all over the lot.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Some polling is intentional spin. Makes polls less usefull but you do get some glimpse into what is going on.

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM

You know, I keep thinking that I’d rather see Obama against Mc Cain. My instincts tell me, Shillary ain’t gonna be easier.

MNDavenotPC on April 19, 2008 at 5:20 PM

I agree. The public already knows who and what Hillary is. She’s not going to fall any further unless it’s found out that she’s a man or that she had Vince Foster whacked. That could be a problem.

McCain, a weak candidate at best, is, like Hillary, a “known” commodity. Up against Hillary it comes down to the war, social programs, and the economy. Hillary also has the added advantage of having Bill in her corner: an expert at appealing to the middle. This will help with the independents. People will vote by party line. Democrats won’t vote for McCain.

But the public really doesn’t know Obama. Even those that think he walks on water really don’t know him or what he stands for. They are going to find out, though, and I think a lot of them are not going to like the wizard when he’s drug out from behind the curtin.

Obama is going to implode. As time passes it’s will become clear to those that can still think for themselves that he’s a lightweight and stands for everything America isn’t. If he wins the nomination, his political career will fizzle and perhaps die during the presenditail debates. I would have preferred Romney had been there during those deabtes as he would have made mince meat of Obama. But I think by then McCain can pretty much stick to his talking points as Obama will have dug his own grave.

With that said, I guess that means that, at least at this point, I still have confidence in the American people to make the right choice - which of course would be any choice I make. :-)

Rod on April 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM

- Ethanol is a good alternative, until it’s a bad one, because that corn could feed the hungry of the world

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:08 PM


The cost of green tinkering is in famine and starvation
Biofuels threaten food supplies, rainforest and climate - yet our leaders push them in the name of the environment.
Farewell the age of reason, welcome the idiocracy. Only George Orwell could have invented - and named - the government’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) that came into operation yesterday. It is the latest in a long line of measures intended to ease the conscience of the rich while keeping the poor miserable, in this case spectacularly so.
- Simon Jenkins

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM

I’d be more optimistic about the Democrats losing BIG TIME if the Republican candidate was even a mediocre choice.

Heck, Bob Dole would have a better chance this time.

As it is, except amongst their sycophants, all three of them inspire apathy at best among the Moderates; anger and despair among people who actually cling strongly to their principles, whether those principles come from Conservatism or Leftism.

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

But the public really doesn’t know Obama. Even those that think he walks on water really don’t know him or what he stands for. They are going to find out, though, and I think a lot of them are not going to like the wizard when he’s drug out from behind the curtin.

Rod on April 19, 2008 at 6:13 PM

But do remember that Carter wasn’t “drug out from behind the curtain” until after he was elected.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

Heck, Bob Dole would have a better chance this time.

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

SECOND LOOK AT BOB DOLE!!!

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:18 PM

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:55 PM

You forgot federal endorsement and benefits for gay couples, billions in federal money for HIV research, free and instant abortions, mandatory Spanish courses in school, and of course the most important policy programme that’ll bring peace in our time: SIGN KYOTO!

Niko on April 19, 2008 at 6:19 PM

But do remember that Carter wasn’t “drug out from behind the curtain” until after he was elected.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

Check the presidentual histories. No democrat has been elected to the Presidency without being from the South since JFK and even he had to have a strong southerner on his ticket in LBJ.

Obama has too much of history against him. Just being “different” isnt enough to win elections. Else we would have had many more longshots as presidents.

The dems have surrendered the entire south to the republicans and added to the west Obama has to win just on democratic strong states. If he loses even ONE big nothernern state he is toast.

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 6:22 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 5:05 PM

It may be spelled “baloon” on Kos but it’s spelled “balloon” in the real world.
Jes’ sayin’

ArmyAunt on April 19, 2008 at 6:23 PM

I know that most of that is not Bush’s or Republican’s fault, although some of it is, but whom do you think folks are going to blame?

Themselves? Nope.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:05 PM

HA should run a thread on this topic, to help provide ideas for McCain, and anyone asked, just to answer the Kondracke question. I’ll start the chain, because it’s a good question, and it will invariably come up in the general debates.

The American people, in the majority do wish to have change, but not the Utopian kind the liberals envision. I addressed some of the items in Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 5:55 PM.

But more specific to your point, or Mr. Kondracke’s:

- 98% still faithfully pay their mortgages and are not upset that the inflated value of their homes is undergoing an adjustment - it’s not the first time in history
- the unemployment rate is extremely low, compared to all other similar countries’
- we haven’t had a major attack on the homeland since 9/11, and hopefully won’t
- I see more new cars on the road, and almost no clunker, than ever before
- lines in restaurants are way loooooong, in almost all of them
- number of TVs per household, gadgets of all kinds, in abundance
- homes are bigger than ever before
- garbage at the curb, more than ever in history (Gore is having a fit, and so does the rest of the world)
- number of people taking cruises is enormously high
- the elderly (on Drudge) are happier, and wealthier than ever before
- the babyboomers reach retirement, and have the most money, including investments, and don’t want it taken away via taxes of all kinds
- no one wants their income double- or triple-taxed, especially not the elderly, twice mentioned above
- others add to this list, as you think of items which apply

To be sure, my loveaffair with Bush 43 ended during the shamnesty debate last year, I have my peeves with him on not fighting and winning the war on terror more fiercely, understanding full well that it’s a long struggle, not easily fought or won, and I’m also not a shill for McCain. He wasn’t my favorite candidate at all. Comparably though, he will contribute the least to the demise of this country, as we know it, followed by Hillary and then, the most, by Obama.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:24 PM

But do remember that Carter wasn’t “drug out from behind the curtain” until after he was elected.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

You’re right MB4. But we still have time on our side along with the example of Carter’s disastrous presidency.

Rod on April 19, 2008 at 6:26 PM

You forgot federal endorsement and benefits for gay couples, billions in federal money for HIV research, free and instant abortions, mandatory Spanish courses in school, and of course the most important policy programme that’ll bring peace in our time: SIGN KYOTO!

Niko on April 19, 2008 at 6:19 PM

So glad you’re back Niko, and that you’re helping me. Your comments make more sense than most Americans’. You deserve to become a naturalized citizen. If I could I’d put you on an expedited program (note, in the U.S. it’s not spelled progamme :) Cheers,

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:29 PM

William Amos on April 19, 2008 at 6:22 PM

And until Ronald Reagan, no actor had ever been elected President and democrats thought that he would be a walk-over.

You are being like a General fighting the last war.

Don’t get me wrong, as of this point, 6 months plus before the election, I would give McCain a better chance than Obama, but to do anything like writing Obama off is very foolish.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:30 PM

72% of the country disagrees. The general election campaign should deflate your baloon pretty quickly.

That statistic is mathematical garbage but validity and reliability rarely concern the left.

rplat on April 19, 2008 at 6:31 PM

I’m looking forward to assualt, siege, counter-assault, siege, counter-assault… inside the Pepsi Center and outside. After which, Obama is the nominee.

jaime on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 6:16 PM

Hang around profitsbeard and Entelechy more often. Bring Indy Conservative and MB4 along.

Don’t get me wrong, as of this point, 6 months plus before the election, I would give McCain a better chance than Obama, but to do anything like writing Obama off is very foolish.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:30 PM

We agree on this one. I wouldn’t bet my 401k on any of them, as it’s too early, and much, a lot, good and bad, can/will happen.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:24 PM

You forgot to add:
- Everyone I know is still going on vacations to Europe, the beaches, other places in spite of the gas prices.
- Airplanes are still full in spite of the gas prices.
- The gas prices here are still worlds cheaper than in Europe or the Middle East (of all places).

As much as the media likes to be all hysterical about how DOOOMMMMEEEDDD the United States is, I really don’t see a change in anyone’s lifestyle. At all.

mjk on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM

The public already knows who and what Hillary is. She’s not going to fall any further unless it’s found out that she’s a man or that she had Vince Foster whacked.

Oh, I think that bringing up some old news could hurt her. Obama should be attacking her now, bringing up the FALN terrorists and other members of the pardons-for-future-support-of-Hillary club. Besides making his Ayers connection look tame, it would cause Bill to shoot off his mouth and lead to hours of fun and enjoyment around here.
There’s plenty of old news that could be tied to something recent to get her on the defensive. Bring up the VRWC line if she complains about anything. But it looks like we’ll have to wait for the general for that kind of attack. At least I hope it will happen in the general…

MamaAJ on April 19, 2008 at 6:33 PM

Hey, be careful what you wish for. ;o) Incidentally, I’ll be arriving in beautiful Georgia next May. (Perfectly legal and documented.)

Niko on April 19, 2008 at 6:33 PM

Where did he do that? And a link please. All he’s been lamenting is the fact that ABC waited 50 minutes to talk about any issues that affect the American people.

lol

How about a link from you, Mr. Linksalot. You’re the one saying that he was lamenting (in sackcloth I bet) the ‘fact’ (Fact? No, that would be opinion), that ABC didn’t smooch his butt like every other debate panel has….er, I mean ask ‘important’ questions about flowers and bunnies and such.

A sissy candidate with angry children for supporters…lovely.

Asher on April 19, 2008 at 6:35 PM

All he’s been lamenting is the fact that ABC waited 50 minutes to talk about any issues that affect the American people.

Oh yeah. Pulled fresh from Obama’s site, this is his current #1 issue:

There is no more fundamental American right than the right to vote. Before the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act, barriers such as literacy tests, poll taxes and property requirements disenfranchised many Americans, especially minorities. More than 40 years later, there are still numerous obstacles to ensuring that every citizen has the ability to vote.

You just can’t make that shit up.

Niko on April 19, 2008 at 6:38 PM

- I see more new cars on the road, and almost no clunker, than ever before
- lines in restaurants are way loooooong, in almost all of them
- number of TVs per household, gadgets of all kinds, in abundance
- homes are bigger than ever before
- garbage at the curb, more than ever in history (Gore is having a fit, and so does the rest of the world)
- number of people taking cruises is enormously high
- the elderly (on Drudge) are happier, and wealthier than ever before

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:24 PM

You are, of course, correct, but the problem is you see, how does McCain say any of that without sounding like he is telling Americans that they are spoiled?

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:39 PM

Hang around profitsbeard and Entelechy more often.
Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM
I’d love to…. Umm… What’s your home address? ;-)

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 6:39 PM

We agree on this one. I wouldn’t bet my 401k on any of them …

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Can we say though that it’s a pretty safe bet that if Oboma is elected our 401K’s won’t be worth squat?

Rod on April 19, 2008 at 6:48 PM

- Airplanes are still full in spite of the gas prices.

mjk on April 19, 2008 at 6:32 PM

Thanks for reminding me of one of my peeve mantras, on topic. I fly a lot and am often in a hurry. It’s irritating not to be able to run, due to mass migration in just about all airports. Also, those cars/carts that transport older/disabled people can hardly get by these day. Good poit mjk.

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 6:39 PM

Heh, I forgot to say “in e-fashion” :) Looks like you got cheered up a bit, which makes me happy. You’re a good one!

You are, of course, correct, but the problem is you see, how does McCain say any of that without sounding like he is telling Americans that they are spoiled?

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 6:39 PM

Being spoiled, or called spoiled is not a problem with Americans. We are spoiled, and we earned it, for good, and for bad.

On topic, though, we need to fight for change, and for what people don’t like about current policies, from the right/left/center, but not the agitprop kind the left is spewing, in a Utopian way.

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 6:49 PM

That could give considerable heartburn to the superdelegates, who may very well wonder whether Obama’s terrible performance this week could presage a complete general-election collapse.

You know, I just thought of something: the superdelegates are just like the electoral college. They both exist to prevent a disaster like Obama from riding the support of a mob to the presidency. We could see something pretty unique, and pretty instructive, if the superdelegates decide that Obama has too much baggage and is too inept to compete in the general election.

Of course, that’s been obvious for some time to anyone who isn’t willfully blind, but Obama’s own party is only starting to wake up. We can only hope the superdelegates have the guts to do the right thing if they have to.

Wayne Clark on April 19, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Wayne Clark on April 19, 2008 at 6:54 PM

You’re right about the superdelegates. That’s their purpose but the dems have a problem. Select Hillary and lose a huge segment of their base, not to mention other negative side effects. Or select Obama and watch a train wreck in the general.

Oldnuke on April 19, 2008 at 6:59 PM

I’ve said this before, and will gladly repeat—my vote will go to McCain, simply because of the 3 candidates, he’s the one whose term will do the least lasting damage to my country.

irongrampa on April 19, 2008 at 6:59 PM

Obama fading? Oh, nooo! Hope it doesn’t make him cling bitterly to Jeremiah Wright and Karl Marx.

petefrt on April 19, 2008 at 7:09 PM

“We can only hope the superdelegates have the guts to do the right thing if they have to.”

The problem is that the Democrats are scared to death about the charges of racism that would result.

exhelodrvr on April 19, 2008 at 7:11 PM

If Hillary happens to win the presidency, which I hope to god doesn’t happen, watching her get even with all the dems that jumped ship to Obama will be priceless. More popcorn?

trs on April 19, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Were it not so bad for the country, I’d love to see the same. Oh, the wrath, and the hell to pay.

As opposed to 4 more years of Jimmy Carter policies?

amerpundit on April 19, 2008 at 5:18 PM

Obama = 4 more years of Jimmy Carter

Chakra Hammer on April 19, 2008 at 5:31 PM

More like four years of 1/3 jimmy carter, 1/3 Al Sharpton 1/3 Louis Farrakhan.

LegendHasIt on April 19, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Nailed them - I was going to, but you got there first :)

Hey, be careful what you wish for. ;o) Incidentally, I’ll be arriving in beautiful Georgia next May. (Perfectly legal and documented.)

Niko on April 19, 2008 at 6:33 PM

And I’ll spread the red welcome carpet for your arrival, gladly. Very happy for you,

Entelechy on April 19, 2008 at 7:24 PM

I believe the Internet has virtually killed the old politics as usual. Thanks Al Gore!

trs on April 19, 2008 at 7:33 PM

I am for a Klingon takeover of the Earth. Failing that, The End Days.

Will I still have to pay my mortgage?

peacenprosperity on April 19, 2008 at 7:38 PM

I am for a Klingon takeover of the Earth. Failing that, The End Days.

Will I still have to pay my mortgage?

peacenprosperity on April 19, 2008 at 7:38 PM

If the Klingons take over? Hard to say.

If it’s The End Days, I wouldn’t bother.

MB4 on April 19, 2008 at 7:48 PM

A super delegate selection of Clinton would be so fun to watch. Of course, Clinton would offer Obama a spot as VP. Question is, will Obama accept in order to “heal the racial wounds” in the Democratic party. Will they call him Vice President Oreo and accuse him of caving in to the (wo)MAN.

If I were Obama, I’n not sure I would want to be part of the Clinton circus. Didn’t really help Gore all the much.

BryanS on April 19, 2008 at 7:49 PM

Sample McCain ad against Obama in the late summer:

FADE IN:

Clip of Rev. J. Wright screaming:

God(bleep) America!”

Clip of Obama intoning:

Just words?

Clip of Rev. Wright bellowing:

AmeriKKKa!”

Same clip of Obama:

Just words?”

Clip of Rev. Wright hissing:

9/11… America’s chickens coming home …to roost!

Same clip of Obama:

Just words?

Announcer’s voice:

That’s what typical Americans would like to know, Senator Obama? Just words?”

Dissolve through to a clip of McCain returning home from years of captivity in Viet Nam.

TITLES: Vote for John McCain 2008.

Announcer:

“John McCain knows the meanings of words. Like ‘God Bless America’.

McCain voice over:

I’m John McCain and I approved of this message.”

profitsbeard on April 19, 2008 at 8:01 PM

The headline gives me hope. “Obama fading” YAY!!

Geronimo on April 19, 2008 at 8:01 PM

The headline gives me hope. “Obama fading” YAY!!

I stopped believing the polls during the Clinton Era. Virtually every major Democrat worth his salt says B.O. is going to be the Democratic candidate. Besides, the MSM has virtually turned their backs on Shillary and are pushing B.O. with every breath they take.

Besides, these days, polls don’t decide Democratic candidates.

Delegates and Superdelegates don’t decide Democratic candidates.

DARTH SOROS DOES! And he has a serious case of B.O. And I don’t mean the hygenic variety.

pilamaye on April 19, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Ya know if this was the Clintons,something,somewhere
bad would happen,and CNN would be diverted for a few days
and Liberal voters would of been clueless!

Now if Obama was smart,he would get a new distraction on the go,and refocus the spotlight back on himself!

canopfor on April 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM

Because 4 more years of Bush policies is what American really wants.

Nonfactor on April 19, 2008 at 4:57 PM

Wow, it looks like “Nonfactor” quickly became a “Nonposter” after several people here started to kick him in his Olbermann.

But if you’re still with us, Non, here are some facts for you:

The classic Democrat meme de jour is that McCain is running for Bush’s “third term”. Nothing could be further from the truth.

If in fact McCain was perceived as Bush Term 3, he’d be way behind in the national polling, not tied with or leading his opponents for the Presidency.

Likewise, if McCain was as tied to the evil Bush as you and your fellow Kool-Aid drinkers in the Fever Swamp seem to think he is, his favorability numbers would be similar to Bush’s. But a majority of Americans have a favcorable impression of the man.

By a 2 to 1 margin, all recent polling shows that “Bush’s” Iraq War (which was signed off on by Democrats) is NOT an issue in this year’s election. But do keep thinking it is.

It’s sad that there are so many ignorant people in the country.

Del Dolemonte on April 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM

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