Ed, shame on you. These are Democrats voting.

{^_-}

Denver! Denver! Denver! ;o)

No! No! No!

Didn’t she lose four points in the SUSA poll? And Daily Gallup has him at a personal best against Hillary at 51 to 40. The best he ever did before today was 50 to 40.

Typhonsentra on April 15, 2008 at 1:19 PM

I bet you believed the 2004 exit polls too. Good luck.

*sigh*…as if it matters. She ain’t gonna win this thing anyway.

mattyj86 on April 15, 2008 at 1:07 PM

It doesn’t matter if she wins. What matters is that they go into the convention without a clear winner. There are 566 delegates left in play. Obama needs 382 to clinch. That means he needs 67% of the delegates and so far, he’s averaging 52%. Also, NC and IN are not closed primaries, so if Republicans do the Texas two-step in those states, operation chaos will make it all the way to Denver. By that time, the number of Dems saying they’ll vote McCain if their candidate doesn’t get the nomination will be in the 40′s.

Granted, Reps didn’t have the brutal primary fight that Hillary and Obama are having, but they’ll retain most of those, I think, once the Dem and Mccain start clarifying the ideological differences (which are very substantial, Rush Limbaugh’s opinion notwithstanding).

96+8=104.

So six of the 104 black voters were for Hillary vs. 98 for Obama. Am I reading that wrong? Still, I have a hard time believing that is a representative sample of black voters in Philly.

No, you are simply settling for the least evil of the three liberal Democrats running for office.

I think it is a stretch to call McCain a liberal Democrat. I think he is more like a mainstream Democrat– that is to say he’s more like their average voter than like their nutty leaders or far left base.

That sounds pretty good, considering either alternative.

Sekhmet on April 15, 2008 at 11:50 AM

No, you are simply settling for the least evil of the three liberal Democrats running for office. America is screwed, no matter the outcome in November.

;(

The “first fresh and reliable” appellation is a dig at ARG.

And ARG probably deserves a dig.

But this poll may also deserve a dig. Quinnipiac polling is conducted by students of the university, and the head people at the “Quinnipiac Polling Institute” are for the most part (gasp) journalists and journalism professors. I only found one of their head people having a background in polling, and none appear to have any training in statistics, which is vital for public opinion sampling. Their assistant poll manager, for instance, has a BA in Psychology.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2011.xml

I hope that crossover remains. There are still lots of Republican/Conservative voters who aren’t enamored with McCain, and some have stated they’ll sit it out, or cross over (esp for Hillary). We haven’t heard much of that recently. Have their feelings mellowed or are they (like the above mentioned Dems) sticking to their earlier feelings?

I’d love to think those Dem numbers will hold – I’m just suspect that when it comes time to vote in November they’ll ‘hold their nose’ and vote for the Dem.

anne on April 15, 2008 at 12:13 PM

I know. One of the perils of having the donks cannibalize each other now is that the GOP base will get complacent and not get out to vote in the general. It also allows the purists to avoid voting for McCain without the fear their lack of support puts a dem in the WH. They may think they can have their cake and eat it too. I hope that isn’t the case.

munch…munch…munch…

Twenty-six percent of Hillary backers will vote for McCain over Obama, and 19% of Obama voters will vote for McCain over Hillary in the general election. Anything close to that kind of crossover vote would allow McCain to easily take Pennsylvania — a state carried by John Kerry in 2004 — and make it almost impossible for the Democrats to win the White House.

Got a nice ring to it. My biggest fear has been a donk closing of the ranks with a ticket shared by Obama and Her Majesty, but the longer this goes, that becomes more and more unlikely, particularly if Hillary keeps her fangs in his jugular on the elitism issue. And, with the above data, I’ll bet there would still be some crossover/stay at home action from supporters of whoever had to play second fiddle.
Operation Chaos is humming along nicely.

I hope that crossover remains. There are still lots of Republican/Conservative voters who aren’t enamored with McCain, and some have stated they’ll sit it out, or cross over (esp for Hillary). We haven’t heard much of that recently. Have their feelings mellowed or are they (like the above mentioned Dems) sticking to their earlier feelings?

I’d love to think those Dem numbers will hold – I’m just suspect that when it comes time to vote in November they’ll ‘hold their nose’ and vote for the Dem.

President John McCain.

That sounds pretty good, considering either alternative.

Sekhmet on April 15, 2008 at 11:50 AM

No, not really…

That sounds pretty good, considering either alternative.