Quinnipiac: Obamamentum in PA stopped
posted at 11:20 am on April 15, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Quinnipiac’s latest poll shows that Barack Obama has stopped gaining ground in Pennsylvania, and Hillary Clinton may have begun rolling back his support in key areas of Philadelphia. The results are not as dramatic as the ARG poll released yesterday showing Hillary up 20 in the next primary state, but it shows a trend that will encourage Hillary to continue to press the “bitter” comments as an issue. The big winner of this poll may be John McCain, though:
The first fresh and reliable look at the mood of Pennsylvania voters since the controversy over Barack Obama’s comments about the bitterness of working-class voters flared up over the weekend has arrived: Hillary Clinton holds a steady 6 percentage-point advantage over Obama in a critical state holding its primary one week from today.
Clinton is the choice of 50 percent of the Pennsylvania Democrats surveyed and Obama 44 percent, according to the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll. The pollsters, who surveyed Pennsylvanians on Saturday and Sunday, conclude that Clinton has “stalled… Obama’s drive’’ in Pennsylvania – with the two candidates’ standing unchanged from the last Quinnipiac Poll released on April 8 – Obama then had been closing a gap with Clinton in earlier surveys taken there. …
“She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs – the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State,” Richards said in a release this morning. “She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago.”
The “first fresh and reliable” appellation is a dig at ARG. Quinnipiac has a better reputation than ARG and better predictive success. However, one glaring error occurs at the end of the report, in which Quinnipiac asserts that Obama wins black voters “by a margin of 96-8″, which would be a neat trick. Either they only sampled 104 black voters out of an overall sample of over 2,000, which would be a terrible undersampling, or someone at Quinnipiac has a problem with math.
More interesting is the McCain Democrat phenomenon. He continues to run a strong third in the Democratic primaries, in an odd manner. Twenty-six percent of Hillary backers will vote for McCain over Obama, and 19% of Obama voters will vote for McCain over Hillary in the general election. Anything close to that kind of crossover vote would allow McCain to easily take Pennsylvania — a state carried by John Kerry in 2004 — and make it almost impossible for the Democrats to win the White House.
I wonder how many delegates McCain might get at the Democratic convention? (via Memeorandum)
Update (AP): She’s holding on to a 14-point lead per Survey USA and a nine-point lead per Rasmussen — a four-point gain in just one week.
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Shocker! Who would have thought that calling people who have strong faith and believe in the 2nd Amendment would be offended!!! But my guess is that Obama will chalk it all up to racism by the gun totin’ Jesus Freaks of rural Pennsylvania.
highhopes on April 15, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Double digits would be fun.
Jaibones on April 15, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Is Obama officially now the wrightwing democrat candidate?
meci on April 15, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Here’s the video of Obama at that fundraiser saying that small towners add skepticism when a non-cynical government message comes from a black man.
amerpundit on April 15, 2008 at 11:29 AM
It’s impossible to imagine Democrat leaders giving Obama the nomination after all that has transpired. Their candidate is at war with the American people. But they apparently intend to. And Hillary can’t win without blacks.
Back to the drawing board. My guess is that out of the ashes of the destroyed Democrat party will rise the next big American political party, the Social Democrats.
JiangxiDad on April 15, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Quinnipiac straddles Clinggate, two days before and after.
Vizzini on April 15, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Much better than “Bittergate”, but I still like See-Dubya’s “Crackerquiddick” best.
mikeyboss on April 15, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Got a nice ring to it. My biggest fear has been a donk closing of the ranks with a ticket shared by Obama and Her Majesty, but the longer this goes, that becomes more and more unlikely, particularly if Hillary keeps her fangs in his jugular on the elitism issue. And, with the above data, I’ll bet there would still be some crossover/stay at home action from supporters of whoever had to play second fiddle.
Operation Chaos is humming along nicely.
a capella on April 15, 2008 at 11:37 AM
He’s had a lot of gaffes recently. They must have some cumulative effect. His inexperience is starting to show.
ronsfi on April 15, 2008 at 11:38 AM
As is his liberal elitism.
amerpundit on April 15, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Dare we hope that Rezko will bear more fruit?
a capella on April 15, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Wright already put the evil eye on Hillary in his sermons. I hope the BLT groupies take it to heart, should the need arise.
a capella on April 15, 2008 at 11:44 AM
The dems can feel it slipping away. It’s over, hit the music.
THE CHOSEN ONE on April 15, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Too many polls.
mymanpotsandpans on April 15, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Will be great to see (once again), the LONG faces on Democrats when another in a series of terrible candidates blows the Presidential election once again.
NoDonkey on April 15, 2008 at 11:49 AM
President John McCain.
That sounds pretty good, considering either alternative.
Sekhmet on April 15, 2008 at 11:50 AM
So Obama has the Clingon vote sewed up.
exhelodrvr on April 15, 2008 at 11:50 AM
The Democrats need to commence a feudin’ mountain style. Now that we know Obama is all talk and afraid of country folk, the Hill-Billy team and supporters need to put some rock salt in their boom sticks.
Hening on April 15, 2008 at 12:01 PM
No, not really…
Darksean on April 15, 2008 at 12:08 PM
It’s amazing that he’s outspending her 4 - 1 and still losing. That bodes well for McCain even with smaller fund raising numbers.
ThackerAgency on April 15, 2008 at 12:12 PM
I hope that crossover remains. There are still lots of Republican/Conservative voters who aren’t enamored with McCain, and some have stated they’ll sit it out, or cross over (esp for Hillary). We haven’t heard much of that recently. Have their feelings mellowed or are they (like the above mentioned Dems) sticking to their earlier feelings?
I’d love to think those Dem numbers will hold - I’m just suspect that when it comes time to vote in November they’ll ‘hold their nose’ and vote for the Dem.
anne on April 15, 2008 at 12:13 PM
I would rather that all this info about the real Obama come out durring the general election; nevertheless…
munch…munch…munch…
29Victor on April 15, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Denver! Denver! Denver! ;o)
soulsirkus on April 15, 2008 at 12:24 PM
I know. One of the perils of having the donks cannibalize each other now is that the GOP base will get complacent and not get out to vote in the general. It also allows the purists to avoid voting for McCain without the fear their lack of support puts a dem in the WH. They may think they can have their cake and eat it too. I hope that isn’t the case.
a capella on April 15, 2008 at 12:24 PM
The bigger the lead for McCain the better for the GOP, since he needs some decent coattails for us to improve the situation in Congress. As Democratic incompetence, corruption, and elitism becomes more obvious, voters ought to start questioning their worth to run Capitol Hill. Long may this dogfight continue!
Pax americana on April 15, 2008 at 12:33 PM
And ARG probably deserves a dig.
But this poll may also deserve a dig. Quinnipiac polling is conducted by students of the university, and the head people at the “Quinnipiac Polling Institute” are for the most part (gasp) journalists and journalism professors. I only found one of their head people having a background in polling, and none appear to have any training in statistics, which is vital for public opinion sampling. Their assistant poll manager, for instance, has a BA in Psychology.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2011.xml
Del Dolemonte on April 15, 2008 at 1:05 PM
*sigh*…as if it matters. She ain’t gonna win this thing anyway.
;(
mattyj86 on April 15, 2008 at 1:07 PM
No, you are simply settling for the least evil of the three liberal Democrats running for office. America is screwed, no matter the outcome in November.
highhopes on April 15, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Didn’t she lose four points in the SUSA poll? And Daily Gallup has him at a personal best against Hillary at 51 to 40. The best he ever did before today was 50 to 40.
Typhonsentra on April 15, 2008 at 1:19 PM
I think it is a stretch to call McCain a liberal Democrat. I think he is more like a mainstream Democrat– that is to say he’s more like their average voter than like their nutty leaders or far left base.
JiangxiDad on April 15, 2008 at 1:21 PM
The laughter at the end of the BHO vid @ the Billionare’s house is very damning…these creeps better hope that few voters see this vid or it’s Hasta la Vista Obammi.
el Vaquero on April 15, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Yeah, at first I thought that was a percentage / margin thing (obviously in error), but then look:
96+8=104.
So six of the 104 black voters were for Hillary vs. 98 for Obama. Am I reading that wrong? Still, I have a hard time believing that is a representative sample of black voters in Philly.
Beo on April 15, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Oops, I was a bit lysdexic. That’s 96 for Obama and 8 for Hillary. So 92% in favor of BO.
Beo on April 15, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Most of those crossover Dems will make nice and vote for the Dem come November. It only took most Republicans 2-3 weeks to come around to reluctantly supporting McCain.
Granted, Reps didn’t have the brutal primary fight that Hillary and Obama are having, but they’ll retain most of those, I think, once the Dem and Mccain start clarifying the ideological differences (which are very substantial, Rush Limbaugh’s opinion notwithstanding).
DaveS on April 15, 2008 at 2:20 PM
It doesn’t matter if she wins. What matters is that they go into the convention without a clear winner. There are 566 delegates left in play. Obama needs 382 to clinch. That means he needs 67% of the delegates and so far, he’s averaging 52%. Also, NC and IN are not closed primaries, so if Republicans do the Texas two-step in those states, operation chaos will make it all the way to Denver. By that time, the number of Dems saying they’ll vote McCain if their candidate doesn’t get the nomination will be in the 40’s.
Kafir on April 15, 2008 at 2:20 PM
I bet you believed the 2004 exit polls too. Good luck.
Entelechy on April 15, 2008 at 2:27 PM
No! No! No!
CliffHanger on April 15, 2008 at 4:20 PM
“by a margin of 96-8″
Ed, shame on you. These are Democrats voting.
{^_-}
herself on April 16, 2008 at 2:21 AM