Obama hits a 20-point stumble in PA

posted at 11:36 am on April 14, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

It looks like the voters of small-town Pennsylvania have reacted to Barack Obama’s remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser in a predictable manner. American Research Group had Obama rising to a tie against Hillary Clinton in the next primary after trailing by double digits for weeks preceding his ascent. Now he has dug himself an even deeper hole than the one he earlier escaped:

Pennsylvania
Democrats Mar
7-8
Mar
26-27
Apr
5-6
Apr
11-13
 
Clinton 52% 51% 45% 57%
Obama 41% 39% 45% 37%
Someone else 1% 2% 4% 2%
Undecided 6% 8% 6% 4%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%.

Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters). …

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

That looks very grim for Obama as he heads into working class states such as Indiana and Kentucky. Prior to calling small-town middle America a bunch of xenophobic bigots who cling to guns and religion out of economic bitterness, Obama had made headway in taking those voters away from Hillary Clinton. He had succeeded in convincing them that Hillary was trying to destroy the Democratic party by creating unnecessary divisions. His sop to the Frisco liberal elite has completely undermined that argument and left him vulnerable once again to the overall electability counterargument.

If Obama begins to lose big in these states, the superdelegates will find themselves under even tougher scrutiny. Do they vote for the elitist or the Tuzla Dash candidate? (via Jim Geraghty)


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I see dead people politicians

Obama is now emanating the scent of Barry Goldwater. I was young enough to remember how Goldwater’s comment on nukes snared him like a rabbit. I was too young to know if it was true that Goldwater was as slow as Obama is proving.

There is a danger in parking your boat at the Ivy League playground and reserving Sundays for a standing O hate-America service. A flag lapel pin wouldn’t stick to Obama’s polished lapels.

I am developing a liking for Hillary because she is slamming this guy. It doesn’t matter her politics. Because she is the only DEM leader working Obama over I am developing a fondness. As a she posed endearingly slinging a shot my heart leapt and I felt a spark of love. If Hillary started putting on dirty dungarees and hanging out by the tractors, or eating lunch (not arugula) with some hard hats I could relax a bit because although I know it is not her bag, she is capable of grabbing a plow and walking in compost if she needs to.

Since that is how people in the working class get the moxie to do the dirty jobs they have to do to live, it puts her closer to the real America I understand.

Hillary has morphed before. Is there a butterfly inside the cocoon? One willing to beat Obama the America hater to a pulp. Hillary, give him a kick for me, and for all the bitter little people. Let me for once be proud to be an American again

Meanwhile

White America is a problem for them. I believe Ted Kennedy knows this and that has been his prime motivation for his continued push for amnesty. Leaders and supporters of amnesty in the Stupid party (McAmnesty, Graham (SC)) are being played for useful idiots.
DerKrieger on April 14, 2008 at 1:53 PM

I agree. I have no doubts that Obama agrees too

entagor on April 14, 2008 at 2:48 PM

Esthier,

My point is the demographics favor the dems to be sure but Obama is the weaker of the two. As such as I stated

“I believe and have thought that Obama was the weaker candidate of the two as folks got to know him. Weak enough, I thought, to offset the demographics by getting “blue dogs”, hispanics and independents to switch.”

I don’t believe there will be folks(blacks) staying home. I know that is what is threatened but that is the extortion game played by the Reverends Al and Jesse. The Sunday preachers will get out the vote.

As to the Wright tapes they were coming no matter what.

For me the essential point has always been, anybody but the Clintons. She is still in the race and as such she has a very good chance. We will rue the day.

patrick neid on April 14, 2008 at 2:52 PM

As to the Wright tapes they were coming no matter what.

Then why did it take over year for us to see them, and why did they only surface after the press was called on their affection for Obama?

For me the essential point has always been, anybody but the Clintons.

patrick neid on April 14, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I can understand that, but what makes you think Obama is any better? I’ve seen every indication that he is much worse.

Esthier on April 14, 2008 at 3:06 PM

If the Dems want to win they had better bring Zell Miller out of retirement. These two losers couldn’t be elected dog catcher in a place overrun with wolves.

duff65 on April 14, 2008 at 3:11 PM

Tuzla Dash is gonna stomp his butt tomorrow.

Chaos!

petefrt on April 14, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Fascinating. We all assume that Obama (and, for that matter, Clinton) believe those things about conservatives being heavily armed, bigoted, idiot religious fanatics. Still, I’d have thought he’d have been smarter than to come out and say it in public…. Overconfident, I guess.

morganfrost on April 14, 2008 at 3:36 PM

Still, I’d have thought he’d have been smarter than to come out and say it in public

He was in private. Some lady snitched.

JiangxiDad on April 14, 2008 at 3:50 PM

Obama has proven himself unelectable, but the Democrats will nominate him anyway, because they are so desperately afraid of appearing racist. The good news is, he’ll lose. The bad news is, he’ll poison the well for any good black candidates for the next 20 years, because the Dems will falsely attribute his loss to racism.

doppelganglander on April 14, 2008 at 4:04 PM

Go Dems:

You get to choose between

1)The Man Who Would be King (of lesser-life Neanderthals), or
2)The Queen of Denial (aka: The tarmac babe).

Talk about a Penn-demic. Jeez!

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on April 14, 2008 at 4:27 PM

Esthier,

It took a year because it took that long for Obama to seriously pop up on the radar. If you think those tapes were just recently discovered I don’t think you give electioneering serious respect.

I don’t think Obama is any better. What I am saying is his proposals, ideas etc will have a hard time making thru congress in the extremely unlikely event he should get elected. The Clinton’s on the other hand have a 20 year, well oiled machine in place. Half the bureaucrats in DC and on the federal level stateswide were put there by them. They are dangerous rogue attorneys who know how to jive the system. They have an army already in place. We will be rolled. The damage will never be undone.

Here’s an interesting link on the current status of the Electoral college:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/04/mccains_electoral_college_math.html

patrick neid on April 14, 2008 at 4:32 PM

Obama is a Rove plant designed to destroy the Democratic Party.

This is the rumor that HillDog will have put out right before the DNC convention.

The SD’s will swing her way, Denver will burn and HillDog will get her chance to dodge real sniper fire.

Video of this will be posted to the net, thus restoring her Dem Cred and pulling in the Indies and the Mod Reps out of sympathy. (insert Stones song here)

It’s called the Double Secret Reverse Machiavellian Triple Triangulation Strategy (DSRMTTS)

Seriously… look it up.

TheCulturalist on April 14, 2008 at 4:33 PM

You’re citing ARG? While every other (More respected) polling agency from SurveyUSA to Gallup to (Not respectable, but tied with ARG) Rasmussen all show him either holding steady or gaining? A general rule is that you should always question the results of a group that ranks below Zogby.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

Typhonsentra on April 14, 2008 at 4:36 PM

HEY GUYS LOOK AT THIS!!!

Obama appeared at 2004 party at Rezko’s home

April 14, 2008; 12:57 p.m.
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama’s name came up again at the Antoin “Tony” Rezko corruption trial and in a way that earlier filings in the case did not telegraph.

Stuart Levine, the prosecution’s star witness, said he and Obama were at a party Rezko threw at his Wilmette mansion on April 3, 2004, for Nadhmi Auchi, a controversial Iraqi-born billionaire who Rezko was trying to get to invest in a South Loop real-estate development.

Auchi, now a citizen of the United Kingdom, has faced criminal charges in Europe. He also figured in the revocation of Rezko’s bond early this year after attempting to wire him more than $3 million. Upon learning of that attempt, U.S. District Judge Amy St. Eve declared Rezko a flight risk and ordered him held in a federal jail in the Loop.

The Rezko party in 2004 was designed to induce Auchi to pour money into the South Loop investment. Obama’s presence at the party was not previously known. At the time, Obama was fresh off a surprise win in the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and was riding a crest of national publicity.

LtE126 on April 14, 2008 at 4:41 PM

Has anyone notice that the date of the survey is April 11-13, 2007?

ihasurnominashun on April 14, 2008 at 5:01 PM

Ha! Nice one “ihasurnomunashun”.

Just checked out the link myself. Ooops.

Ah well…we can dream can’t we?

jlibson on April 14, 2008 at 5:52 PM

The bad news is, he’ll poison the well for any good black candidates for the next 20 years, because the Dems will falsely attribute his loss to racism.

doppelganglander on April 14, 2008 at 4:04 PM

I agree, on the Democrat side. I believe a black Republican could run during those twenty years, and win.

Kafir on April 14, 2008 at 5:55 PM

I’ll take a wait and see attitude to see if it’s a trend. Quinnipiac is coming out with a poll tomorrow (Tuesday). We’ll see!

SouthernGent on April 14, 2008 at 6:34 PM

Isn’t Obama the pot calling the kettle black? After all, he belongs to a very bitter congregation indeed led by a bigot who clings to conspiracy theories out of outrage at America.

Why does Obama promote such a low opinion of white churches when his own black church is full of hate that Obama justifies and condones?

Tantor on April 14, 2008 at 6:38 PM

I’m voting McCain no matter what happens. The world is too unpredictable for anything besides sincere voting, but my deepest fear is that after four years of McCain, we get the disaster of 61 Democratic senators. I’d prefer four years of Hilary to that. I hope she wins this primary because four years of Obama would even worse than a Democratic filibuster proof Senate.

thuja on April 14, 2008 at 6:47 PM

Tantor on April 14, 2008 at 6:38 PM

“guilt by association”
“birds of a feather flock together”
and now:
“takes one to know one”

he’s running on the cliche platform

TheCulturalist on April 14, 2008 at 6:50 PM

Here’s the text of Obama’s latest Pennsylvania stump speech:

“F*** you, cracker-ass crackers!
G’night…
Dumb ass crackers…”

Django on April 14, 2008 at 6:54 PM

A bit OT but FWIW:

Pennsylvania has been promoting clean, green technology coal for some time to provide for electricity, and now the capability of extraction of natural gas from shale is the newest answer for meeting energy needs. The breadth of the area where this natural gas can be tapped opens employment opportunities and, yes, hope for jobs related to the industries and ancillary services.

from 4/8/08 NYT:

“It’s a modern-day gold rush in our own backyard,” Mr. Gregoire said.

Not just his backyard either — a frenzy unlike any seen in decades is unfolding here in rural Pennsylvania, and it eventually could encompass a huge chunk of the East, stretching from upstate New York to eastern Ohio and as far south as West Virginia. Companies are risking big money on a bet that this area could produce billions of dollars worth of natural gas.

A layer of rock here called the Marcellus Shale has been known for more than a century to contain gas, but it was generally not seen as economical to extract. Now, improved recovery technology, sharply higher natural gas prices and strong drilling results in a similar shale formation in north Texas are changing the calculus. A result is that a part of the country where energy supplies were long thought to be largely tapped out is suddenly ripe for gas prospecting.

Pennsylvania, where the Marcellus Shale appears to be thickest, is the heart of the action so far.

Both energy solutions would provide jobs in areas that have seen manufacturing sector losses AND would answer some of our our pressing energy needs.

A smart politician would be promoting these options and demonstrating a sound economic understanding. And hold up to serious scrutiny/disdain the claims of the AGW and environuts.

Instead, Obama and Hillary! Clinton are revealing a weak grasp of Constitutional rights with their nonsense about guns and hunting, a faulty lack of knowledge about how the government can help by deregulating strangling (nonsensical) environmental laws based on speculative (unproven) science, and a love affair with a utopian future where American citizens are dependent of federal central planning, exhorbitant taxation, drone (non-wealth producing government-service jobs, and income redistribution (theft).

Both Obama and Madame Hillary! insult Pennsylvanians and the people of the Midwest is profound ways. The Dem candidates have little sense of the strong communities, the networks of colleges and universities, and world-renowned hospitals that dot the landscape of the America that they mock as uneducated, bigoted, or numbed by religious belief.

onlineanalyst on April 14, 2008 at 7:30 PM

A smart politician

onlineanalyst on April 14, 2008 at 7:30 PM

ur right, of course, but i found a major problem with your post.
see above…

TheCulturalist on April 14, 2008 at 7:43 PM

All this Obama bashing is making me sick! The Clintons need to be banished whenever possible. Hillary is right Rush watch what you wish for. If we help her destroy Obama we will get Hillary as I don’t think McCain can beat her.
There is no difference there except she has a d. behind her name and is a lot smarter and younger.

She will wallop the geezer in a debate as he won’t play in the gutter with the snake, then all her negatives won’t matter as he will be shown to be and old, bitter, empty head whose been duped by dems for years.

Again they’ve duped the dope for years and he actually thinks hes’ accomplished something good. McCain/feingold, McAmnesty. He doesn’t have a chance against Hillary if he could keep his big mouth shut he could beat Obama.

dhunter on April 14, 2008 at 10:58 PM

I think it is time that we really consider the possibility of voting every one of these jack-ass elitists out of power and start from scratch……..

Seven Percent Solution on April 14, 2008 at 11:42 PM

The damage to Obama is only starting. Kind of like Democrats’ policies in Iraq, their nomination will be an example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I think McCain still needs to run on his own Maverick platform for a Republican to win this round of the presidency, but hold on conservatives because he’s the only thing in the way of what will likely be an overwhelming Democratic congress.

Now if only McCain could allow himself some time to shore up a weak showing among republicans for house and senate seats. McCain’s never been good at rallying the base as his primary nomination has shown. I can only hope he recognizes need to make supporting down ticket candidates a priority.

Republicans need to vote for Hildebeast in all upcoming primaries to maximize the mess at the Democratic convention. I do admit to no shortage of schadenfreude seeing the Democrats implode. Though I think and always have thought Hildebeast is a stronger candidate for the Dems to field, even if she is now nominated, the racial schism in their party will irreparably damage them. Maybe identity politics can turn in on itself and chasten the Dems against playing that way in the future. One can hope, anyway.

BryanS on April 15, 2008 at 12:11 AM

20 points in Pennsylvania…can’t wait to see the latest polls from Indiana and N.C.; there’s waaaay more Dems in those two states that “cling to religion and guns” than in PA.

SuperCool on April 15, 2008 at 6:43 AM

If only the Hillaryator was as lethal to the enemies of this country as she is to her own. I’d almost feel good about her in the oval office.

dhimwit on April 15, 2008 at 8:33 AM

dhunter on April 14, 2008 at 10:58 PM

Both Obama and Clinton are unelectable at this time, unless McCain really screws the pooch. In fact, I would suggest that this will be one of the most lopsided elections since Nixon v McGovern.

moxie_neanderthal on April 15, 2008 at 8:45 AM

What a suprise. Obama’s gaff in San Francisco actually is a long standing belief of his. See this vider on him on the Charlie Rose Show in 2004:

Has Obama always been an Out of Touch Elitist?

BrianA on April 15, 2008 at 9:17 AM

:lol
Hillary fell in the latest SUSA Pennsylvania poll. Not by a lot, but still funny.

Typhonsentra on April 15, 2008 at 9:26 AM

I think anyone making this statement these days is a Hillary supporter.

“Republicans need to vote for Hildebeast in all upcoming primaries to maximize the mess at the Democratic convention. I do admit to no shortage of schadenfreude seeing the Democrats implode. Though I think and always have thought Hildebeast is a stronger candidate for the Dems to field, even if she is now nominated, the racial schism in their party will irreparably damage them. Maybe identity politics can turn in on itself and chasten the Dems against playing that way in the future. One can hope, anyway.”

BryanS on April 15, 2008 at 12:11 AM

As the link I provided above clearly shows McCain does much better vs Obama in the Electoral College count. He loses by a large margin vs Clinton. At least read the analysis. If you have already and you still make this comment you are a Clinton supporter.

patrick neid on April 15, 2008 at 11:09 AM

As Operation Chaos continues, I find myself hoping that this twit Obama gets the nomination. He’s even worse than Hillary, and THAT’S an accomplishment.

Mojave Mark on April 15, 2008 at 8:07 PM

As the link I provided above clearly shows McCain does much better vs Obama in the Electoral College count. He loses by a large margin vs Clinton. At least read the analysis. If you have already and you still make this comment you are a Clinton supporter.

patrick neid on April 15, 2008 at 11:09 AM

Actually, I’m agreeing with you–as you quoted, I specifically say Hildebeast is the stronger candidate. That said, a racial meltdown could help sew enough dissatisfaction amongst the african american monolithic voting block that Democrats would have a hard time winning anything. Imagine if Democrats didn’t have 90% of all african american votes. I’m not sure their voting participation rate, but 90% of 15% of the population gives Democrats gives them 13.5 % of the popular vote from day one. The Dems only need to get 36.5% of everyone else to win an election. Without that black vote, Dems are a permanent minority.

BryanS on April 15, 2008 at 10:41 PM

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