Sadr’s political universe continues to shrink

Moqtada al-Sadr has found himself increasingly isolated in Iraqi political circles.  Once considered a kingmaker when Nouri al-Maliki ascended to the Prime Minister post, he has managed to bring unity to the various sectarian factions in Iraq in a unique manner.  He has everyone looking to kick him and his Mahdis out of the next election:

Iraq’s major Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties have closed ranks to force anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to disband his Mahdi Army militia or leave politics, lawmakers and officials involved in the effort said Sunday.

Such a bold move risks a violent backlash by al-Sadr’s Shiite militia. But if it succeeds it could cause a major realignment of Iraq’s political landscape.

The first step will be adding language to a draft election bill banning parties that operate militias from fielding candidates in provincial balloting this fall, the officials and lawmakers said. The government intends to send the draft to parliament within days and hopes to win approval within weeks.

“We, the Sadrists, are in a predicament,” lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie said Sunday. “Even the blocs that had in the past supported us are now against us and we cannot stop them from taking action against us in parliament.”

The move against Sadr in Basra clearly had a lot more support from Iraqis than previously thought.  Even Shi’ites have had enough of the militia leader and want to see security and control managed from the elected government.  The military phase was only the start; the political phase has just begun.  And this time, unlike in 2004, the central government has increased the stakes.  They now demand that Sadr disband the Mahdi Army entirely, not just stand them down.

Undoubtedly, Sadr’s Iranian support has prompted the isolationist coalition within the Iraqi government.  Sadr has flaunted his Iranian backing a little too publicly.  Even Maliki, who wants good relations with Iran, cannot abide foreign troops abetting an insurrection in his second-largest city.  It has given Shi’ites, Sunnis, and Kurds a common focus and a point on which unity naturally arises.

Now even Sadr’s political supporters have acknowledged that the end of the road may have come.  Rubaie has offered to send a delegation to Sadr to explain that he has to cut the Mahdis loose if he expects to retain any political influence at all.  If it doesn’t work, the Iraqis in the Assembly appear prepared to have the Americans and British conduct full-scale military operations against Sadr, which they have prevented for the last four years.

The American media seemed eager to portray Maliki as out of touch and defeated after the first few hours of fighting in Basra.  Will they update their reports to show the unity that Maliki has achieved in his aggressive opposition to Sadr’s militias and the collapse of Sadr’s political standing as a result?

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