Zimbabwe heading for run-off vote

posted at 12:20 pm on April 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Zimbabwe may have to conduct a second, run-off presidential vote in order to resolve a standoff between Robert Mugabe and his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai. Although the MDC believes Tsvangirai won slightly more than the 50%+1 needed to avoid a run-off, the capitulation of Mugabe and the previously-ruling Zanu-PF party on their parliamentary loss may have prompted some flexibility in Tsvangirai’s approach. The intercession of Zimbabwe’s neighbors may also have contributed to a compromise:

Zimbabwe’s ruling party geared up for a final battle Thursday to keep Robert Mugabe in power, declaring itself ready for a presidential election run-off and arranging a meeting of its top members. …

Tsvangirai’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) maintains its leader has surpassed the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a run-off, but says it will fight a deciding contest if necessary.

There has still been no official word on the outcome of the presidential ballot five days after the poll, but the election commission announced overnight that the MDC had won control of parliament.

Mugabe has found himself in a position unprecedented in the last 28 years — fighting for his survival. He has been present at — and the subject of — a series of meetings within Zanu-PF and with officials from neighboring nations. Sierra Leone’s former leader met with both Mugabe and Tsvangirai to find a peaceful settlement of the electoral dispute. Ahmed Tejan Kabbah headed the African Union poll watchers, and has remained behind to watch for the transition of power, if it ever comes.

Why should the MDC opt for the run-off? Even by their own numbers, Tsvangirai won 50.2% of the vote, which barely gets past the majority standard. While Tsvangirai easily beat Mugabe, who could only grab 38% of the vote while his security forces tried to keep MDC voters from successfully casting ballots, that’s an awfully slim margin on which to start a nationwide rebellion. The MDC may figure that a head-to-head beating will serve their purposes better for establishing international credibility.

It’s a big risk, though. A Zanu-PF spokesperson claimed that the party only put out a “25%” effort for Mugabe in the first round, which could be translated into a claim that they can put a lot more boots on the street to disrupt voting in round 2. However, the delay in announcing election results has angered Zimbabweans even further and convinced them that Mugabe intends on stealing elections to stay in power. That could produce a collision of unstoppable forces in the next round and create a bloody meltdown in the streets.

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