Politico: Hillary trailing among the super superdelegates, too
posted at 10:35 am on April 1, 2008 by Allahpundit
Send to a Friend |
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Her approval rating’s tanking, her lead in Pennsylvania is down to five(!) if Rasmussen’s to be believed, her own supporters are touting Obama as the next president, and the only movement in her direction seems to be anecdotally along the great divide. Portrait of an army in slow, steady retreat: She can still inflict plenty of casualties, but she can’t win. More evidence of that this morning from Politico:
If the fight over whether to count the results in Florida and Michigan makes it to the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton will not have enough pledged votes on the 169-member Credentials Committee to deliver a majority decision in her favor, according to an analysis conducted for Politico.
Her only hope of getting the key committee to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position.
The DNC’s Credentials Committee consists of 144 pledged members (Florida and Michigan are not included) plus the 25 party leaders and elected officials appointed by Dean. The 25 Dean appointees include a mix of Dean loyalists, Obama supporters and at least several individuals who have endorsed Clinton…
Clinton has, however, already won enough pledged members to meet the 20 percent threshold required to vote out a minority report, meaning that both Democratic candidates could have their positions voted on by all seated convention delegates.
By Politico’s count, the breakdown among the Committee stands at Obama 65, Hillary 56, with 23 committee members still to be decided by the remaining primaries plus those 25 “super” committee members appointed by Dean-o. Thanks to the Dems’ proportional system, Obama can’t win the 20 seats he’d need to clinch a majority unless he crushes her utterly the rest of the way, which he won’t.
So here’s what’s shaping up: A close Committee vote on whether to seat Florida and Michigan, probably to be decided by those “Dean loyalists” who’ll have to choose between disenfranchising the states by refusing to seat them or ratifying the bogus vote in Michigan where Obama wasn’t even on the ballot. Dean himself has taken the hardline “rules are rules” approach in all this and I suspect he’s more beholden to party bigwigs than to disgruntled DNC members from Florida and Michigan, so I’m guessing this bodes well from Obama and disenfranchisement. (Unless, of course, Obama’s lead in the popular vote is wide enough by the convention that he’ll still lead even if the two states are counted, in which case why not seat them?) That leaves Her Majesty with the nuclear option, as I understand it from the article: Force a vote among all the seated delegates to try to go over the Committee’s head and have the states seated anyway. Since Obama will have a majority of them too, what are the odds she’ll succeed? All they have to do is say “we respect the Committee’s decision” and vote their interests.
The golden scenario would be if the Committee did seat the two states and in doing so somehow gave Hillary a lead in the popular vote, leaving Obama with a tough choice. Does he then force a vote of all the seated delegates to try to unseat Florida and Michigan? If he does, think the GOP will be reminding voters of it come November? Exit question: If Hillary knows she doesn’t have the numbers on the Committee, is she going to the convention anyway? Just to look ‘em in the eye and dare them to pull the trapdoor on her?
Update: Eye of the tiger, baby. Although at this point, she’s sort of like Apollo at the end of the fight with Drago.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Oh great, the Democrats have now created a third class of citizen?
James on April 1, 2008 at 10:41 AM
“Dean loyalists”…? Those exist?
CP on April 1, 2008 at 10:42 AM
And now we’ve potentially got Bob Barr to deal with.
amerpundit on April 1, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Some are just more equal than others.
CP on April 1, 2008 at 10:45 AM
The only way Hillary’s going to quit before convention is if Dean and others in the party could hit both her and Bill where it might actually hurt, in the pocketbook. Tell them that not only do you not have any chance to win the nomination, but if you keep this up all those six-figure speaking deals Bill has gotten, or those multi-million dollar book advances pro-Democrat publishing houses were willing to fork over knowing they would never get their money back in sales, are going to vanish.
Do that and Hillary might still be ego-driven and bull-headed enough to turn Denver into a repeat of Chicago ‘68. But tell Bill that all his cash payouts and fawning audiences are going to dry up if his wife doesn’t quit the race and then, the Democrats’ party leaders might get through to the ex-pres and turn him into an ally in muzzling the missus.
jon1979 on April 1, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Oh, well. Hopefully Obama will be rendered utterly unelectable by the time the Klintons are finished with him, and we’ll only have to suffer a McCain presidency. (still preferable to the unthinkable alternatives)
Fishoutofwater on April 1, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Uh….and how did that turn out?
amerpundit on April 1, 2008 at 10:47 AM
Hillary can also make the case that many of Obama’s wins came in red states, which won’t go blue in the general, while she can maintain the states she won. It all comes down to how electable Obama can be in the eyes of the supers and what she wants for a legacy in the party. Pennsylvania appears to be the tipping point the way things are shaking out.
a capella on April 1, 2008 at 10:50 AM
In Hillary’s world, numbers pointing towards defeat are treated the same way as cheating husbands.
Ignore them, blame others and pretend you’re in charge.
fogw on April 1, 2008 at 10:51 AM
Does this mean I should cancel my tickets aboard the SS
TitanicHillery?TooTall on April 1, 2008 at 10:52 AM
The Clintons will not go down without taking a few bodies with them.
ctmom on April 1, 2008 at 10:56 AM
And she’s hoping Obama is one of them.
Did anyone catch the presser he had yesterday? His uhh, ahh, ummm…how does anyone think he is a good speaker?
He sounds uninformed, uneducated and sometimes he appears to be making things up.
ArmyAunt on April 1, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Herself! is just mean enough to take the entire Democrat Party down with her. Billy doesn’t need her anymore; his speaking fees are sufficient to keep him in bimbos for the rest of his life. Chelsea! is old enough to begin her own Congressional Campaign (with Dad’s help). Now to find out which state to file divorce papers. Preferably for him, not one that has joint custody.
SeniorD on April 1, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Liar, liar,
Pantsuit on fire.
whitetop on April 1, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Psst, superduperdelegates, remember those 900 FBI files on Republicans the Clintons had? Weren’t you aware that they also had files on at least some of you guys as well? Be kind of a shame if some of that information got out.
rbj on April 1, 2008 at 11:11 AM
The only way out of this for Clinton is if she can somehow blame America for sending her to Bosnia. GDAmerikkka!
ninjapirate on April 1, 2008 at 11:13 AM
Herself can still make it to the White House
Throne RoomOval Office: Simply get Cynthia McKinney to accept the VP Spot and then run on the Green/Socialist Party!If nothing else, she’ll have a place to go when the Democrat Party is destroyed.
SeniorD on April 1, 2008 at 11:18 AM
would barr pull as many repubs as Paul….or is he less crazy so potentially more? Paul can’t run with the newsletter stuff that would materiallize so I guess he needs Barr to do it in his place
jp on April 1, 2008 at 11:19 AM
“Never give up! Never surrender!”
artlover on April 1, 2008 at 11:43 AM
If only we could harness the power of the Hillary campaign’s implosion….
Alalazoo on April 1, 2008 at 12:14 PM
I hope she does succeed in stealing the nomination just to see how the Democrats dance around saying she did. I don’t want her to win the presidency, but then I don’t want Obama or McCain either.
I must admit, this election has been more interesting than the others I remember. Laughing on the way to the gallows.
deewhybee on April 1, 2008 at 12:14 PM
What other chice do they have? The sure don’t have any confidence in their idiot constituancy making a sound decision.
saiga on April 1, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Now, who wears the pants in that family?
belad on April 1, 2008 at 12:43 PM
If Bob Barr gets in we are sunk!
KBird on April 1, 2008 at 12:45 PM
O man those guys are stupid.
A Axe on April 1, 2008 at 12:51 PM
She’s all done. Will the true conservatives vote for Mr. Barr?
Its possible.
dogsoldier on April 1, 2008 at 1:11 PM
“Ha ha, ho ho, he he.”
I can’t tell you who said that, it is/was NOT pc, even in the context a fictional character from a book. (I’ve learned not to utter such words in the Lefty world unless I’m up for having to deal with having spasms of guilt thrust upon me.)
The pc version of this word would be: a native of China; the Clintoon’s former friend, Charlie Trie, is an example.
Christine on April 1, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Watch Michigan go Red this year…The Dems can thank Howard for that!
Pam on April 1, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Watching the Dems twist in the wind over this almost makes up for the fact that the GOP has been destroyed the McCain haters who are becoming more and more intolerant that doesn’t buy into their far left of center “conservatism.”
McCain’s Quislings may have spelled the doom for the nation but at least the plunge comes with in-flight entertainment.
highhopes on April 1, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Gentlemen’s bet for any takers: Hillary will win the nomination.
Gaunilon on April 1, 2008 at 2:50 PM