Iraqi Army losing ground to Mahdi Army in Basra, Baghdad? Update: Let’s have a political solution, says Sadr
posted at 4:21 pm on March 27, 2008 by Allahpundit
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I’ve been waiting for some sort of corroboration before posting last night’s NYT story about the IA offensive against the Sadrists stalling in Basra. Here you go, from a paper that’s always been fairly evenhanded in its war reporting. If they’re to be believed, it’s not just Basra where the Mahdis are on the march:
Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra stalled, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen…
In Baghdad, the Mahdi Army took over neighbourhood after neighbourhood, some amid heavy fighting, others without firing a shot.
In New Baghdad, militiamen simply ordered the police to leave their checkpoints: the officers complied en masse and the guerrillas stepped out of the shadows to take over their checkpoints…
One witness saw Iraqi Shia policemen rip off their uniform shirts and run for shelter with local Sunni neighbourhood patrols, most of them made up of former insurgents wooed by the US military into fighting al-Qaeda.
The city’s now under curfew. The Basra operations only started a few days ago so I’m guessing Petraeus is lying back to give the IA a chance to take care of business itself, as having to rescue them will be demoralizing to pretty much everyone except Harry Reid. How’s it going in Basra? Per the NYT, not so well:
A Basra newspaper editor who asked that his name not be used for fear of reprisals said most residents despised the Mahdi Army and welcomed the assault. But he said it was obvious that the central government had not consulted with local commanders in planning the assault, citing the inability of the armored vehicles to fit through city streets. But support for the assault already seems to be eroding in several neighborhoods, as militiamen retained control of their strongholds and residents were confined in their homes. “The Mahdi Army is still controlling most of these places,” the editor said. “The result is negative.”
Local residents said the southern sections of Basra, mostly poor and heavily populated, were still controlled by the Mahdi Army on Wednesday night…
Col. Abbas al-Tamimi, media officer for the 14th Iraqi Army Division operating in the city, said he expected the fighting to escalate. “The gunmen have heavier and more sophisticated weapons than we have,” he said.
I wonder where they got those very sophisticated weapons. A Basra resident who used to work for the Brits tells the Times of London, “The police in Basra are useless and helping the Mahdi Army. The militia are hiding among the civilians. This country will never be safe, I want to leave for ever. I don’t know how to get out of this hell.” If Israel couldn’t destroy Hezbollah two years ago, I guess it stands to reason that the IA’s going to have trouble destroying the Iraqi equivalent. The X factor is that it’s not just the IA that the Sadrists have to contend with. The other militias in the city see this as an opportunity to crush them and take their share of the spoils, which explains why “neighborhoods controlled by rival political groups seemed to be giving government forces safe passage, as if they were helping them to strike at the Mahdi Army,” according to the NYT. With regular and irregular units against them, you’d think the JAM would be having a harder time. Not yet. Cross them fingers.
Via Danger Room, here’s a handy snapshot from Al Jazeera of all places of the various interests in conflict at the moment.
Update: The official word from Muqtada is that he opposes violence. Unofficially, who knows if he’s even calling the shots anymore.
Update: Andrew Cochran of the Counterterrorism Blog calls it a “budding disaster” for Maliki.
Update: CNN’s analysis here of the game Iran is playing with Sadr is shrewd. They’re trying to use him as a figurehead, but when he resists by purging the “rogue” members of the movement, the Iranians recruit them and send them back into the field under his banner. In all likelihood, Sadr’s just a puppet in all this and possibly an unwilling one. That explains why the ceasefire hasn’t been rescinded and yet you’re seeing fighting all over. He’s not the one giving orders.
“And now the most lethal attacks on U.S. forces, the most coordinated attacks on U.S. forces, the most daring attacks on U.S. forces in the country are committed by Iranian-backed breakaway elements of Muqtada’s militia faction.”
The violence in Basra — which has spread to Shiite areas throughout the country, including Baghdad — is a kind of fighting Americans are unaccustomed to seeing, said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Donald Sheppard, CNN’s senior military analyst. Video Watch the violence multiply »
“This is intra-Shia. This is not Sunni vs. Shia, this is not civil war, this is not sectarian violence, it’s intra-Shia politics for control of the government,” he said.
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Wow, what a surprise. Does this mean the surge is still working?
Watchman on March 27, 2008 at 4:24 PM
“The Mahdi Army is still controlling most of these places,” the editor said. “The result is negative.”
This is live fire training for the I.A., tryin’ to prove themselves. Don’t worry, if they get into a jam (no pun intended) they can always call for help from the U.S. An airstrike here and there will even things up real quick.
Tony737 on March 27, 2008 at 4:25 PM
Must be Iran. You should have said Iran. You could have gotten “sophisticated weapons” and Iran in the same sentence. Sorta like Gay, and Obama, only different!
Next time maybe, I’ll be watching!
Watchman on March 27, 2008 at 4:26 PM
Sure, let`s pull out now.
ThePrez on March 27, 2008 at 4:26 PM
Why is any of this a surprise? When Sadr called it quits and retired, what else were the Mad-Mahdi to do. The only reason it took so long for them to get started is they had to decide how they would commit mass suicide.
Th Iraqi army was bound to be pushed back. This is really their first real test. The real question is one of resources beyond the rifles and Toyotas we gave them.
Can they call air-strikes? Get ready for phase two. The press can’t wait. All this head-to-head fighting is no good for the press. Bombs are better, you can take photos from a mile away, and make up any story you like. Bonus.
Agrippa2k on March 27, 2008 at 4:28 PM
I heard the opposite.
And Watchman, considering the fact that the Democrats want to boogie right on out there without a passing thought to what they leave behind, why bitch about the surge? Besides, this is British territory and they took the Obama approach to conflict.
Terrye on March 27, 2008 at 4:29 PM
Wow, one day of fighting, the Mahdi’s aren’t put down yet, and Watchman asks if “the surge is still working”. Yes, it is. Seeing as how this is all happening in Sadr City and Basra, it’s pretty safe to say that this is a local matter. I don’t think all of Iraq is in flames.
But of course, according to the defeatists, we have to pull out of Iraq NOW, because some uppity militiamen are ignoring their leader’s pleas to stop fighting. Obviously, Iraq’s a lost cause.
I think this is all for the best. Let these cockroaches crawl out so we (or the Iraqis) can smash them.
Badger in KC on March 27, 2008 at 4:30 PM
It smells like troll around here. Please don’t feed it.
Blacklake on March 27, 2008 at 4:30 PM
The U.S. Army kicked Mookie’s azz back in ‘04, severely, and THAT’S why he called for a ‘cease-fire’. These idiots from al-jazerra will believe anything Mookie tells ‘em.
Tony737 on March 27, 2008 at 4:31 PM
As long as they keep playing whack-a-mole with Mookie, this type of stuff is going to continue. If they want the problem solved, long-term, they’re going to have to take him out the next time he’s in Iraq, and just endure the short-term consequences.
jon1979 on March 27, 2008 at 4:34 PM
This is not a good thing, particularly the IA members defecting to the Mahdis. It calls into question not only the battle fitness of the IA but also the loyalty and commitment to Iraq as a country as opposed to just tribal and religious elements. There is no doubt the IA can win if our guys bail them out, but it would still be a major setback if that has to happen.
a capella on March 27, 2008 at 4:36 PM
They not even hiding where they get their funding anymore.
BohicaTwentyTwo on March 27, 2008 at 4:40 PM
Wasn’t this area the british’s responsibility - not to throw an ally under the bus but wtf?
Defector01 on March 27, 2008 at 4:43 PM
You know, wasn’t that how it started with the Marine’s 1st Assault on Fallujah? “Hundreds of civilians are dying…”
I’m sure Sadr and friends have a whole disinformation campaign planned for a case such as this.
We should probably wait this out and see official people from IA/MNF-I speak about it.
Scott_T on March 27, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Jules Crittenden has some more positive feedback. Truth is, we do not know what is happening. But this had to happen sooner or later.
Terrye on March 27, 2008 at 4:43 PM
If I have learned anything about war coverage during the heat of battle it is this: Everything is going wrong and we are loosing, until its over and we’ve won.
Wait a few days and the militia may be swept away (more or less). This assault is being brought by the IA on their own initiative. Assuming they know what the hell they are doing, despite some chaos during the heat of battle, the objective should be reached.
tommylotto on March 27, 2008 at 4:45 PM
I just listened to a two hour presentation from AEI with Kagan, O’Hanlon and Pollak about the current status in Iraq and they mentioned that Sadr was in a box because if his militias did rise up again, they would basically make themselves open targets for US Forces to cut down and then Sadr wouldn’t have any power base left. I guess we’ll see if that’s true, although it may explain why Mookie is trying to put the brakes on this.
Dudley Smith on March 27, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Defector:
Because Basrah was under British control. If people are really this uninformed they do not even need to be commenting.
Terrye on March 27, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Link if anyone is interested:
http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.1693/event_detail.asp
Dudley Smith on March 27, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Actually, Malaki stepped on his own appendage with the 72 hours or else riff. I don’t know why the Arabs always do that instead of letting the fighting do the talking without the verbage. They always box themselves in and a negotiated settlement occurs only to be broken later. Our guys hardly ever do the ultimatum dance,..the enemy knows what is going to happen without being told and it doesn’t lock us into a timeframe.
a capella on March 27, 2008 at 4:47 PM
Uh, sounds like Mooky is taking advantage of the 72 hours he was given…
Give it a couple of days, then the gloves will come off… expect US Army involvement..
Romeo13 on March 27, 2008 at 4:47 PM
Reliable sources (unlike Times OnLine…puleez) says Black Hawks are “very active” in the area and have “replenished”.
My son is there.
Snooper on March 27, 2008 at 4:49 PM
It’s time for the PM to fish or cut bait.
bnelson44 on March 27, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Watchman,
You think the militia is lying about where they got their weapons? I mean, how stupid do you have to be to think Iran isn’t supplying the Shia militia? You-stupid apparently.
Beagle on March 27, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Thank your son for serving!
I have also heard that we choppers are very active.
bnelson44 on March 27, 2008 at 4:52 PM
Interesting point…..
Seven Percent Solution on March 27, 2008 at 4:54 PM
Basra wasn’t under American control — it was under British.
amerpundit on March 27, 2008 at 4:58 PM
The biggest test of the surge–could the Iraqis handle their own security–is sending mixed messages. The IA is stumbling but who expected them to be as crisp and effective than U.S. troops? Eventually we (and they) and to see how they fared. It’s still early, but it’s not a great start.
seanhackbarth on March 27, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Yea, but the trouble is spreading into Baghdad. Those people are rats, and they just don’t have the smarts that we need to build on.
Let them kill each other.
saiga on March 27, 2008 at 5:12 PM
Ahmadinnerjacket is playing his cards well. Sadr in Iraq, Nasrallah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria (and let’s not forget Afghanistan where he has influence despite no Shia reside there) - the war is waged on enemy territory while he goes ahead with Uranium enrichment and Shihab-3 manufacturing. Kinda proves that Persians are smarter than the Arabs when it comes to waging Taqqiyah Jihad.
Aristotle on March 27, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Mookie is going down. We need to get his fat arse before he sneaks back into Iran to get some more of them super weapons.
Hening on March 27, 2008 at 5:19 PM
In a few days Sadr and his thugs will be six feet under.
jdun on March 27, 2008 at 5:22 PM
If this is indeed a case of Iran not needing al Sadr any more, I fear things in Iraq could get pretty bad… especially if IA can’t handle the situation.
Let’s hope they rebound.
Tom_Shipley on March 27, 2008 at 5:23 PM
So far the British are laying back, staying at the airport near Basra, as are the US forces for the most part. During this the remaining renegade Shia militias will expose themselves by acting, and I predict ass-kicking to come.
I like it that the Iraqi forces are being used to put this down, if they get in over their heads we will rescue no doubt.
Tark on March 27, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Good Lord, Big A. Deep breath, wouldya? Things are just getting started…I am awfully busy lately (hence the 12:30 am post from Iraq). Try not to give into dispair because some stringer from Basrah, or reporters covering the story from their barstool at the hotel in Baghdad tell you “all iz lost!!11!1!” hours into this. Start thinking longer term.
major john on March 27, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Good morning, Major.
bnelson44 on March 27, 2008 at 5:41 PM
They offered a political solution - give up your weapons and follow the governments lead or die. Now they have to
livedie with the consequences. I wish all the Iraqi troops a good fight and quick victory. It will make things much safer for our troops if they can clean out the Sadr terroristsCorsair on March 27, 2008 at 5:58 PM
Well I can’t comment on down south but in Mosul, from my latest e-mail from my son, he is asking for something to do other then do PM on his Abrams. I’m sure he could put it to better use putting holes where holes belong.
Limerick on March 27, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Oh, but hey, Fred Kagan says the civil war is over.
Drum on March 27, 2008 at 6:07 PM
Here we go. A weak leader tries to prove his military is able to make a go of it without the U.S. and fails miserably, thereby squandering all the progress that had been made to that point. Its Lam Son 719 all over again.
tagryn on March 27, 2008 at 6:16 PM
Reuters news flash: The fledgling United States of America is facing collapse today, the country is still divided even after having scrapped the “Articles of Confederation” in favor of a so-called Federal Constitution. Now there is a revolt in Pennsylvania by farmers over the deeply unpopular whiskey tax. There is deep concern that the army will not heed the call of President Washington to come out and put the rebellion down.
—-
This is the first significant test of the Iraqi army & government. Of course there are going to be problems.
rbj on March 27, 2008 at 6:24 PM
I have supported this war from the beginning. I have a son involved. I can’t understand why we will not do what is necessary to win it. Who is Bush trying not to offend ? Would some groups around the world hate us anymore if we did what is brutally necessary ? I guess it is too damn complicated for people like me to understand.
JonRoss on March 27, 2008 at 6:26 PM
The time is coming when all Islamic extremists will have to be nuked.
Travis1 on March 27, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Travis1 - I think that has been suggested by someone. At lease advising them that if a nuke goes off anywhere in the world and there is any reason to believe it was done by an Islamist, Mecca and Medina would be quickly evaporated.
JonRoss on March 27, 2008 at 6:32 PM
Their (Islamic fascists) cowardice is beyond disgusting…
The world must get rid of these scumbags.
Travis1 on March 27, 2008 at 6:41 PM
counterterrorism blog:
This is a budding disaster for the Maliki government, and it doesn’t merit plaudits from anybody connected with the U.S. We vividly recall the spectacle of seeing the President compliment FEMA for its “fine job” in New Orleans right after Hurricane Katrina, only to be confronted by live reporting on the stranded and dying residents stuck in the Convention Center.
Uh, I like the guys at counterterrorism blog,but if they are going to do their reporting based on the complete failure of the MSM to report what really happened in New
Orleans, then I may look else where for my news on the
War on Terror.
The claims of dead bodies,dying people,and rapes in the convention center were greatly exaggerated and it was found
that the only dead body found had been dragged in from outside.The L.A. Times(no friend of Bush) did a major breakdown on the failures of local government,the press,
FEMA,and the failure of the press in almost every area in reporting what really went on.Nagin refused to let the red cross bring supplies into the convention along with the fact
he did nothing to evacuate his city with 5 days warning.Blanco refused a state of emergency 2 days before Katrina hit.FEMA was slow to respond but while Bush was talking,the largest rescue operation the country had ever seen was taking place.Katrina definitely was not handled well but hardly Bush’s fault.
All we have heard is that Al-qaeda was only part of the
problem and Maliki was in Sader’s back pocket.Now Maliki is
facing down the most powerful shia milita’s with the Iraqi army and the defeatist are crying about that.
Will the Iraqis need US help,he!! yes they will.
Will they defeat Sader’s militia, he!! yes they will,together.
Will it be done like a George Clooney movie,he!! no it won’t.This is the real deal,not hollywood.
When Sader’s militia is beat down and he vies for a “political solution”,combined with the gutting of Al-qaeda,will Iraq be even closer to handling the country on
their own,he!! yes they will.
I have faith in the American Soldier and reporting coming
from the Micheal Yon’s and Micheal Totten’s,not the drive by
MSM that has ignored Iraq until they could put some bombings
on TV and the Front Page again.
Baxter Greene on March 27, 2008 at 6:49 PM
Crap. I don’t want to be “watchmen” if there’s someone posting ridiculous things as “watchman”… Errrg. And I can’t change it, either.
watchmen on March 27, 2008 at 7:22 PM
I have supported Bush on this war and think we need to stay there until the job is done, BUT if these people are not even willing to fight for their own freedom what is the point? How many hours were spent training these Iraqi police who just drop their weapons and run at the first sign of danger? Have we/they no screening process what so ever? Or are we just handing weapons to whoever wants a hot meal that day and saying they are Iraqi Police? And I’m sure these same “police”, who are ripping off their uniforms and hiding, aren’t going to spew any information over to the enemy.
This is frustrating news…even if it is a small area in the bigger picture.
Vigilante on March 27, 2008 at 7:28 PM
I have supported Bush on this war and think we need to stay there until the job is done, BUT if these people are not even willing to fight for their own freedom what is the point?
Yes, these ungrateful bastards! We gave them their freedom (by bombing the shit out of their country and setting up the government WE want them to have), and they won’t even fight for us, er, I mean their freedom…
Look, I’ve said this many times, this is not an Iraqi revolution akin to an American revolution. This whole affair was conceived in a room in Washington DC, not in the hearts and minds of Iraqis. I’m not surprised in the least that IA are defecting. The US is an occupier. And while many may want democracy, they also probably want to decide what the direction their country will take without any US influence. I think this whole concept is flawed. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I really think the US will have to leave for the Iraqis to really settle on what they’re country will look like (and that very well may involve a civil war).
Tom_Shipley on March 27, 2008 at 8:01 PM
Would you fight a war with or buy a used country from Fred Kagan
MB4 on March 27, 2008 at 8:22 PM
More fallout from the pathetic Bush/Dumbsfeld “three lost years” of dithering in Iraq.
While the Pentagon and the media were pummeling former MNF-I Commander, General Sanchez for the Abu Ghraib tempest in a teapot, they ignored Sanchez on the most important point he made, when he asserted (way back then) that Sadr needed either to be killed or captured.
The White House/the Pentagon love doing what the late George Wallace termed “pussyfooting” (and it has nothing to do with the female anatomy) — and now we are paying dearly for it.
sanantonian on March 27, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Oh, and Gordon Brown’s peremptory retreat from the front lines in Basra also contributed to this mess.
And to think that the US Army was within minutes of killing Sadr back in 2003(?) and we pulled back.
Time to purge the softies in the Pentagon and replace them with some of our battle-hardened commanders.
Oh, and lest I be misinterpreted, I am not saying that Iraq is a lost cause — not by any means!
sanantonian on March 27, 2008 at 8:42 PM
On, and by the way, our soldiers on the ground would have gladly killed Sadr back then, if they hadn’t been ordered not to do so by higher.
sanantonian on March 27, 2008 at 8:43 PM
I do earnestly and truly hope that you are correct, my friend: It is indeed long overdue.
sanantonian on March 27, 2008 at 8:46 PM
Tom:
Yes, we have been through this many times. When it is was politically advantageous for the left to hate Saddam, they did, when it was politically advantageous for them to defend Saddam, they did.
blah blah blah.
Terrye on March 27, 2008 at 9:13 PM
The left whined and cried when the Iraqis did not take the lead going after the militias, they whined and cried when they did. The Democrats cried and whined for political progress, whined and cried when the got it.
blah blah blah.
Terrye on March 27, 2008 at 9:14 PM
I’ve been waiting for some sort of corroboration before posting last night’s NYT story about the IA offensive against the Sadrists stalling in Basra
Dude, AP, you know I got nothing but love for you, but the NYT is just doing its usual defeatist misreporting here. IA is offensive is as “stalled” as we were “quagmired” in Afghanistan or “bogged down” in sand storms during the invasion.
Maliki gave them 72 hours, that’s why they’ve stopped. It’s mostly for PR, to show he’s merciful.
It’s not like they can’t just call in U.S. airstrikes. We do give IA close air support.
TallDave on March 27, 2008 at 10:37 PM
Just like it did in the western provinces, things have to get really, really bad before the people at street level will step up and do what is needed. Its dark and a little Machiavellian but just hold off on the panic for a bit, things are going just as the NEED to go.
Remember, things have to get unbearably bad before the local populace will shoulder their responsibility.
TBinSTL on March 27, 2008 at 11:50 PM
I think everyone should just chill for a minute. Maliki gave the Mahdi Army 72 hours what maybe 24hrs ago to lay down arms? Arab politics are a odd system were impressions even those that are idiotically opaque are important.
I am holding for those 72 hrs to pass which should be Friday late. It doesn’t look like Maliki has committed all of his forces yet. Sadr has now shown his hand and bet all but Maliki is still holding cards not to mention the two trumps we all know of (US, Britain).
This has not over yet.
C-Low on March 28, 2008 at 12:46 AM
I’ll wait for the verdict from Michael Yon. He’s the only consistently honest reporter in Iraq.
Reading between the lines of the NYT story, it seems to me that this is a lot less than meets the eye. The “Awakening” in Anbar and the Sunni triangle was engineered by playing one group off against another. As I understand it there are several militia groups in the area, all of whom hate each other. Sadr is in Iran and is still calling for a ceasefire. The other militias are trying to divide up the spoils. If we can use each of those groups to weaken the others we may be able to fashion a coalition that the Iraqi government can handle..
Don’t try to make things more, or less, complicated than they already are. There’s not going to be a grand battle where one side wins and the other loses. There’s going to be maneuvering and horse trading. Some of these people, and I don’t mean just the Iraqis, would make Machiavelli look like Pollyanna. You cannot believe the politics that goes on in your average military headquarters. There’s no amateurs here.
schmuck281 on March 28, 2008 at 1:21 AM
I am holding for those 72 hrs to pass which should be Friday late.
Looks like you’ll have to wait quite a bit longer…
BAGHDAD, March 28 (Reuters) Iraq’s prime minister extended a deadline for Shi’ite militants in southern Basra to hand over their weapons from Saturday to April 8 and said they would receive a financial reward if they complied.
At least it looks like he’s getting this politics thing down. When in doubt, bribe em.
Tom_Shipley on March 28, 2008 at 7:39 AM
Baxter Greene, I would agree with you though there is no such unified identity of an “Iraqi” when facing the obvious, “Will the Iraqis need US help,he!! yes they will.”
No matter which Iraqi we help, there are divisions of each division bent on purging the others with fanatic zeal. So even with their consensus of constitution and voting rights for all men and women, even with their trained police and military, THEIR concept of “e pluribus unum ” is at best the opposite of our concept. Out of many (out of all) there will be one winner, one purist leader and people of Islam, the only correct version of Islam, and winner take all. So regardless of our investment and efforts to provide educational opportunities for Iraqis, they will be what they are, separatists waiting for their opportunity to purge the world of their opponents.
Sad world.
maverick muse on March 28, 2008 at 7:53 AM
It was one of the biggest mistakes of this war not vaporizing this fat,smelly turban-head(Moqtada Al-Sadr). There must be some strategic reason that he is still drawing breath..Somebody please send him a cruise missile as a gift, active cruise missile….That would throw Tehran off a little bit, seeing he’s their main guy in Iraq killing our guys. He has no place in the new government..My two cents……………..
adamsmith on March 28, 2008 at 10:39 AM