Yon: Nineveh AQI’s likely last stand
posted at 9:02 am on March 25, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Michael Yon has his latest report from Iraq, and he suggests keeping a close eye on Nineveh province over the next few months. The remnants of al-Qaeda in Iraq have coalesced in the province, but they have discovered that their reputation precedes them. Instead of cowing the locals into obeisance, AQI has provoked them into fighting — in part by murdering a 15-day-old infant on their arrival:
An Iraqi officer near Sinjar told me that recently a group of perhaps twenty “jihadists,” many of them foreign, descended on a Nineveh village. The Iraqi officer said the terrorists killed some adults and two babies. One baby they murdered was 15 days old.
Until recently, such terror attacks inside Iraq could have coerced the village into sheltering Al Qaeda. Yet this time, the “jihadists” got an unexpected reception. Local men grabbed their rifles and poured fire on the demons, slaughtering them. Nineteen terrorists were destroyed. Times have changed for al Qaeda here. Too many Iraqis have decided they are not going to take it anymore. Al Qaeda in Iraq is still fighting, and they are tough and wily, but al Qaeda Central seems to realize there are easier targets elsewhere, perhaps in Europe, where many people demonstrate weakness in the face of terror.
Yon concludes the article with this prediction:
There are no guarantees, but this could be the endgame for major combat operations in Iraq. Combat is likely to heat up in Mosul and western Nineveh by about May. There likely will be some reports of increased US and Iraqi casualties up here, but this does not mean that we are losing ground or that al Qaeda is resurging – though clearly they are trying. If there is an increase in casualties here as we go into the summer of 2008, it is because our people and the Iraqi forces are closing in. We have seen just how deadly al Qaeda can be. This enemy is desperate. They know they are losing. They are not likely to go out easy. The enemy is smart, agile and adaptive. Likely they will land some devastating blows on us, but at this rate, our people and Iraqi forces appear to be driving stakes through al Qaeda hearts faster than al Qaeda is regenerating.
Yon covers a lot of ground in this article, literally and figuratively. He reports on a failure to stop a suicide bomber before he could take out eight American Special Forces soldiers, and the response that the unit gave to this attack. Yon rode with Blackhawk crews and reports on their discovery of a huge cache of ammonium nitrate, the same kind of material used in the Oklahoma City bombing and in many car bombs in Iraq. They detonated it, creating a spectacular explosion in the middle of the desert and not in the middle of Mosul.
Nineveh looks like the place AQI will make its last stand in Iraq. The lack of foreign fighters has made their situation grave and acute. They no longer have any place to go to ground, and their brutality makes it impossible to find enough allies to defend themselves even against Awakening patrols. The Kurds will eat them alive if they try to move north into that region, and Syria looks like their only escape option.
They don’t even have enough enthusiasm left in the ranks for a proper stand. Yon describes the terror that foreign fighters experience on joining AQI. They come to Iraq thinking that they will become infantry fighters, taking up arms against infidel soldiers. Instead, AQI leadership terrorizes the terrorist wannabes and force them to wear the more robust suicide belts. Most of them have no wish to commit suicide and try to surrender when given the option, thoroughly disillusioned with the jihad experience.
AQI has come to the end of the road, and it will come in Mosul. It won’t be an easy victory, but it will likely be the end of major combat for the US in Iraq. After that, the US and Iraq could concentrate on internal and border security, and the establishment of democracy in the heart of Islamic radicalism.
Note: Michael Yon’s reporting is brought to us by … us. Michael needs reader support to continue his groundbreaking work in Iraq and Afghanistan. Please consider dropping a few dollars in his tipjar to help him cover his expenses.
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i love reading michael yon thanks HA for giving him props; probably one of the few journalists out of Iraq whose reporting is worth reading
drift on March 25, 2008 at 9:10 AM
I don’t think so.
Michael Yon might saw what might be qualified as “progress” in his report but in reality it is very far from over.
In fact, I think it will be like in Israel:
Continuous suicide bombing.
Al-Qaeda and the devout Muslims in general, when they promise, they deliver.
I think we have very recent living proofs.
And Al-Qaeda promised to turn Iraq into an Islamic Nation with Sharia and the extra junk, under their rule.
They may not succeed, but they could if the U.S. pulls out.
Nope, it’s not over, and you know what?
It will never be over.
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 9:15 AM
Great read, thanks!
Buy Danish on March 25, 2008 at 9:18 AM
would love to hear about such reporting on the TV…
these embeds are doing excellent work.
trailortrash on March 25, 2008 at 9:18 AM
RE: Last Stand, I think he means in Iraq - i.e, as a problem for us there.
As for in general, they probably aren’t going away, ever. But they will become anemic, I think.
Al-Queda thrives on the weakness of locals or the willingness and disaffectedness of youth in various places. It’s much like the fascist movements of the early 20th, but closer to the Comintern than to Nazism or Mussolini’s Italy.
So as long as there are cowards in politically weak places, or youth of any background who are yearning for action, there will be groups like AQ.
RiverCocytus on March 25, 2008 at 9:30 AM
It may continue, but the people now are beginning to understand that they can stand up to bullies…they can fight back.
It will never “disappear” (some people here in the south are still fighting the civil war) but the tide is changing.
*
And we know about it because you report it…if only…
right2bright on March 25, 2008 at 9:31 AM
Extremism will continue to come to this country. The latest Muslim charter school principal placed a letter in the Mpls Star Tribune about his school not being a center for Muslim indoctrination. This will be a war for decades I’m afraid.
MNDavenotPC on March 25, 2008 at 9:32 AM
Hmmm… can/will al Qaeda be pursued into Syria if they flee that way in the middle of a fight?
Is al Masri with the rest of these AQI members in Nineveh? Taking him alive would be great, he’d be a goldmine of intel.
Also, the militarily oblivious McClatchy is predicting (hoping?) the success of the surge is coming undone
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31527.html
ikez78 on March 25, 2008 at 9:43 AM
My gosh you’re extremely pessimistic today. You should consider getting away from the news today and do something uplifting today.
TheBigOldDog on March 25, 2008 at 10:08 AM
Now, what do you think happens if Obama (or Hillary) gets elected and we begin immediate withdrawal.
Sugar Land on March 25, 2008 at 10:08 AM
This won’t stop the MSM from spinning it Tet-style.
crazy_legs on March 25, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Hell yeah. WTG Iraqis.
infidel4life on March 25, 2008 at 10:12 AM
AQ and similar groups will never fully disappear as long as the Islamic ideology that supports it, exists as is.
awake on March 25, 2008 at 10:13 AM
Those must be some mortars they’re using to shell the Green Zone in Baghdad daily all the way from Mosul…
alphie on March 25, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Thanks for this. I hope he’s right.
Dash on March 25, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Believe it or not, I didn’t watch any TV today.
But I’m being realistic, that’s all. I know what’s going on in the real world.
Unfortunately I can read in foreign languages, it opens your eyes to things not reported in the U.S. media. And it saddens me… i.e. the news, because I do care and love America and I hate to see what those Muslim bastards want to do to the country that I love.
So I’m being realistic but funny too, I hope.
Check out my replies in some of today’s other topics.
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 10:22 AM
If you’re right, that the war between Islam and the rest of us will be ongoing, and I think you are, we really have no choice. Sooner or later, one of the two sides has to go. Time and time again history has shown us that a conflict of philosophies has never been solved as long as both continue to exist. A truce, or peace, is no solution.
OldEnglish on March 25, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Micheal Yon has been one of the few honest people reporting out of Iraq.
He plays no political games,he spanked the Bush administration when it needed it,and he has,and is, spanking
the surrender crowd in the democratic party.
His vocal point is our Soldiers,their mission,and giving an accurate picture of what is going on.
Something the idiots in the drive by media are incapable of.
Freedom and the ability of moderate muslims to stand up for themselves and fight against the jihadist are keys to
victory.
And also something the bumper sticker liberal crowd said would never happen.
Thank God for our men and women in uniform and God’s speed
to General Petraeus!!
Baxter Greene on March 25, 2008 at 10:41 AM
Oh this war waged against the West by Islam will last for a long, long time.
Europe is surrendering. America is working on it.
America is being complacent again after September 11.
If one side has to win, or is working on winning, it certainly not our side or at least not the European side.
Unless Europe gets hit hard, it will never wake up.
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Ah, the turning of the worm on the bullies.
What sweet encouragement. No, AQ isn’t done, but it’s had many many amputations and organ removals.
Thanks to all the marines, soldiers, airmen and sailors for making it possible.
All the Iraqis needed was the encouragement to take courage and beat the crap out of these murderous fanatics.
Mommynator on March 25, 2008 at 11:39 AM
This is why Obama scares the hell out of me. He either is totally naieve, or he does understand the issue and is willing to give the U.S. to the enemies.
4shoes on March 25, 2008 at 11:47 AM
We are making great progress. I hope you all heard about the special ops attack on a terrorist cell the other night. They zapped 12 bad guys of which 6 were prepared for suicide operations in the very near future. This suggests we’re getting some pretty damn good intel that is very operational. This is good news.
More on point, I think we’ve passed a tipping point b/c the center of gravity for these bad guys is dependent upon their ability to blend in to the population and have local people assist (fixers). Whenever you move around a lot and are forced to relocate, you have more difficulty blending in and loose some of your network facilitators.
I suspect the pace of death and destruction for bad guys will only intensify from here on out so as to make it increasingly difficult.
Mr Jihadi, may I introduce you to maneuver warfare.
moxie_neanderthal on March 25, 2008 at 11:57 AM
I understand your position but I don’t think you’re right. I know that Europe has some fire left in her, even if her loser leaders don’t. We (the West) have a chance; I just hope we take it.
What is the only way to reach peace?
emailnuevo on March 25, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Only 99 yrs to go.
davidk on March 25, 2008 at 12:13 PM
They need to be killed, not captured.
Johan Klaus on March 25, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Sounds like Michael Yon must think that Obama’s plan to keep American combat forces in Iraq for as long as 16 months, starting from early next year, is too long. Sounds like he must think that that is much too long.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 12:34 PM
99 years says McCain, 99 years in Iraq.
Get through another one, 98 years in Iraq.
98 years says McCain, 98 years in Iraq.
Get through another one, 97 years in Iraq.
97 years says McCain, 97 years in Iraq.
Get through another one, 96 years in Iraq.
…
…
…
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 12:45 PM
62 years in Germany, 62 years in Japan……
Johan Klaus on March 25, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Stop treating Sharia-supreme Iraq like post-war Japan
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 1:33 PM
I’m as optimistic as Indy Conservative on this. AQI may well be run out of Iraq for the mindless brutality of it’s member demons. And when they are gone you are left with a country still full of practicing Muslims that hate each other and all Kaffir. Then what?
Maybe when the Iraqi government get back from the Easter break they will sort it all out.
BL@KBIRD on March 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM
I’m sure they are thinking………..if we can just hang on until Hussien Obama gets elected….
sbark on March 25, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Think a better caption for the photo would’ve been “How NOT to be found.”
corbettw on March 25, 2008 at 2:07 PM
This post is not accurate.
First, take out implies they were killed.
8-of-22 that were on the Blackhawks were dead or wounded, not Special Forces. It sounds like there were 5 SF and 6 Iraqi SWATs per Blackhawk, 10 Special Forces and 12 Iraqi SWAT total.
From what I gather, no Special Forces died, sounds like 3 were wounded and returned to duty that night, so they were not taken out.
WoosterOh on March 25, 2008 at 2:17 PM
Also, did I miss it or did he not say who the “High Value” target was?
WoosterOh on March 25, 2008 at 2:24 PM
They`ll always be suicide bombers in Iraq, no doubt about that. The only victory for us will be if enough of the Iraqi army and the governement say : “No, we`ll handle this one, thank you,” for large operations and foot patrols.
ThePrez on March 25, 2008 at 4:10 PM