Game over: Obama gains 11 points in North Carolina since speech
posted at 2:59 pm on March 25, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Dave Weigel e-mails with the exciting conclusion to last week’s narrowing of the gap by Her Majesty in NC. She was down by one in the previous PPP poll; now she’s down … 21. (Her lead among whites is down from 56-30 to 47-40.) Question: Was it the speech that did it or the fact that Obama spent a few days in Carolina last week, choosing Fayetteville as the location for his big Iraq address? Answer: It doesn’t matter. Her only chance was to convince the superdelegates that the Wright thing’s hurt Obama so terribly badly that voters are turning on him en masse. Whichever interpretation you choose for these results, that’s obviously not happening. So let’s revise David Brooks’s estimate in the Times this morning. If she woke up with a five percent shot at the nomination, we’ll call it one percent now.
Any good news here? Just this, and it’s only good in a Muntzian “HA-ha” way at Silky’s expense. Mind you, Carolina’s his home state:
Exit question quotation: “At some point we will get their NCAA bracket and it will be determined that whoever picked the most number of winning teams will get the nomination.”
Update: Corroborating evidence that the speech at least didn’t hurt him — he’s back on top in the Gallup national poll.
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
William Amos linked earlier, but I’ll put it here again. Turns out Obama was less-than-truthful about his past work.
amerpundit on March 25, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Remember Operation Chaos. All could change.
Spanglemaker on March 25, 2008 at 3:01 PM
No! NOOOOOOO!!!!
pseudonominus on March 25, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Unless Obama turns out to be a child molester or something of that magnitude, he will be the dim nom.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:06 PM
673 likely dem. voters. How many black? As mentioned above, doesn’t count repubs. crossing over. They wouldn’t have been called. Not so sure about this, expecially with his majesty lounging over in St. Thomas while McCain busts his butt in Iraq and Hillary pounds the campaign trail, lies and all.
JiangxiDad on March 25, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Why do I think Edwards won’t show his cards till the convention.
I wouldn’t count Hillary out just yet. The annoyance of Barack Hussein Obama lead is just an annoyance to her eventual coronation as the democratic choice. /snark
Kini on March 25, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Not if one knows the Clintons. We thought the game was over a while ago…a few more acts to go in this Theater of the Absurd.
That it’s leftie self-immolation is thicker/sweeter than molasses.
Entelechy on March 25, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Hey, Shillary can still pull it off! She can everyone about that time she held off an entire band of spear-wielding pygmy cannibals in the jungles of Borneo while armed with just a paper clip and a glob of Silly Putty!
pilamaye on March 25, 2008 at 3:09 PM
It’s more than one percent… if she pounds Obama in Penn, the game’s wide open.
Vizzini on March 25, 2008 at 3:10 PM
Who is public policy polling? are they credible?
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:11 PM
Exit question quotation: “At some point we will get their NCAA bracket and it will be determined that whoever picked the most number of winning teams will get the nomination.
I did notice that Obama chose UNC to win it all in his bracket. Just a coincidence, I’m sure.
Tom_Shipley on March 25, 2008 at 3:13 PM
He may be able to cling to his besotted dim voter base, and secure the nomination, but his ties (both personal and through his wife) to the militant negro wing of victicrat politics will slam the white house door firmly shut.
LimeyGeek on March 25, 2008 at 3:13 PM
We can’t be sure of the accuracy of the sample, and it only includes Democratic Primary voters — not crossovers.
It’s not over until the Glacier lady sings.
amerpundit on March 25, 2008 at 3:13 PM
one problem with operation chaos in NC is there is a big Govenor primary on repub side.
Obama was widely covered in media here last week, when bill Clinton was in Charlotte Friday it was barely mentioned he was in town.
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:14 PM
What is the MATTER with these people?! Obamamania is blind and frighteningly stupid! I would have been reassured if the Wright stuff had caused at least a hiccup or a hesitation in the Obama momentum. This is SO not reassuring!
aero on March 25, 2008 at 3:16 PM
PPP generally makes pro-Obama assumptions in its sampling, but since we’re comparing two PPP polls, the trend should be accurate. I would attribute it more to Obama visiting NC. One thing the BO camp is not spinning is that BO tends to do better the more he visits a state. IIRC, Jay Cost found it to be a significant factor.
Karl on March 25, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Is this a bad thing ? Not too long ago we were hoping that Obama would beat Clinton.
I think this shows that the Clintons will undermine Obama in the general and cost him the election.
William Amos on March 25, 2008 at 3:16 PM
I find those numbers really hard to believe.
funky chicken on March 25, 2008 at 3:18 PM
That poll sounds about right. It’s anecdotal, but 90% of the white liberals I know loved the speech. One woman I know actually changed her support from Hillary to Obama after hearing it.
He hit his target audience. Might not help him win PA, but I think the race will be closer than Hillary expects.
Slublog on March 25, 2008 at 3:18 PM
So PPP, already knows the #’s of pro-Obama people.. And they can make outcome whatever they want.. ;)
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:20 PM
yeah, is Obama not the easier candidate to beat now?
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:20 PM
She still has about a 10 to 25 percent chance of winning — if the Clinton campaign has some new bombshell. But they’ll have to time it to go off either right before or after Pennsylvania, to do the most damage in North Carolina, which is Obama’s firewall.
Destroy that, and then you might see an Enron-like collapse for Obamamania among the superdelegates, if he loses a southern state and fall polls show McCain’s in the 350 electoral vote range in a hypothetical match-up against Barak. Then Hillary can ride in, maybe without the assurance of winning in November, given how split Democrats would be, but at least with the promise to downballot candidates in non-lifetime seats that her nomination won’t get them voted out of office in November.
jon1979 on March 25, 2008 at 3:21 PM
I’m hoping Obama wins. He can’t win the general election, but Hillary could.
forest on March 25, 2008 at 3:21 PM
I’m not throwing out my popcorn yet.
jukin on March 25, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Do you get what I’m saying.. they added in more “pro-obama” Phone #’s into the sample(that they recorded from the previous , time)
Now, even you believe that his speech had an effect on the electorate.
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:22 PM
I doubt it was so much his speech as her derailment over her misrepresentation (that’s lawyer speak for lie) of her trip to Tuzla.
Benaiah on March 25, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Funny.
As someone who lives in NC, this poll seems wrong. Every Democrat in my neighborhood (6 at last count) is voting for McCain.
I guess they’ve been polling the Charlotte Observer reporters. They’re the only ones who would qualify as “likely voters” in the Democratic primary.
Gartrip on March 25, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Not many people have heard about that, the Rev. Stuff is all over the place.
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:26 PM
whats Obama’s new national poll numbers? that is a better indicator of the effect of the speech.
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Some of you folks may be misunderestimating Obama in the general.
The dims did that with Reagan, the candidate that they salivated to run against.
How did that work out for them?
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Moot point. Rush has proven he can convince a good 100,000+ republicans to change parties and vote in the primaries.
GogglesPisano on March 25, 2008 at 3:28 PM
Every New England Dem I know says they will not vote for Obama. Bring him on.
Hening on March 25, 2008 at 3:28 PM
what I was thinking…
all the blue collar dems I know in NC that aren’t black, would never vote for obama after hearing that preacher. The yuppie white guilt crowd sure, but not the majority. I think it comes down to the number of white guilt/elitist Dems and the black vote in Dem primary for obama
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Allahpundit is impersonating Drudge.
Sensational titles.
Tan tan ta ta ta tan
Might as well put it in red.
The game is not over until Hillary says so.
Who knows? Maybe Hussein has more skeletons in his closet.
You better start digging Allahpundit or Michel Malkin will seriously fire you this time.
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 3:30 PM
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:27 PM
Reagan didn’t have Rev. Wright attached to him. That is a real deal breaker with many people. A draw the line in the sand type thing once put into context of Obama’s 20 years worth of membership and giving Wright an official Advisor position to boot.
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:30 PM
… with the very big caveat of IF the Clintons play by the same rules as everybody else.
I won’t count her out until the convention is over, simply because I believe they will do anything to win, no matter how low they have to go, no matter how many rules they have to break, no matter how dirty they have to get. As Don Henley sang in Smuggler’s Blues “a lot of shady characters and a lot of dirty deals” – with apologies to all the smugglers out there of course – didn’t mean to insult you by putting you on par with the Clintons.
thirteen28 on March 25, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Obama is damaged goods.. My grandma and aunts always vote democrat(they are poor), I can guarantee that they will not vote for Obamakhan(They are from the Chicagoland area, they know all about the race hustlers, like Farrakhan and Jesse Jackson! guarantee that they will vote Republican for the first time ever!)
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Rasmussen tracking (03/21 – 03/24) says Obama is 9 behind McCain.
Gallup tracking (03/21 – 03/24) says Obama is 1 behind McCain.
Take your pick.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:31 PM
Just how many votes do your grandma and aunts have anyway?
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Full circle…
AP is so in the tank for Barry-O
Wind Rider on March 25, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Whatever. These polls are crap. Nobody swings 20 points in such a short time. Nobody. Either a) the first poll was bad and she was never down by one; or b) the second poll is bad and she is not down by 21; or, most likely, both a) and b). In any case the NC primary is after PA. She could, could, crush the Messiah, drop a keystone on him so to speak and build some momentum going into NC.
Vote Sauron 08 on March 25, 2008 at 3:36 PM
I think you are “misunderestimating” the damage done by the Rev..
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:37 PM
I think that we can pretty well be sure that Obama will carry Illinois anyway, even without your grandma and aunts support.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Exactly, she should get a bounce after PA.
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:38 PM
They live in Indiana(NW Indiana)
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Doesn’t seem to be that much. I can see where one would think that, but the damage seems to be relatively light.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Looks like the American voters will get the President they deserve.
John McCain.
Niko on March 25, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Nope, the speech probably didn’t hurt him among liberals, as they gobble that crap. But dollar to a donut says it cost him dearly among moderates and conservatives.
petefrt on March 25, 2008 at 3:40 PM
McCain will probably be able to carry Indiana then. I think that he’s got that one.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Niko, every populace deserves its leaders.
MB4, do you wish for Obama to win, the primaries, the general?
Entelechy on March 25, 2008 at 3:42 PM
The game’s not over til it’s over.
fogw on March 25, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Are these the same brainiac pollsters who predicted Pantsuit would lose in NH? North Carolina votes in 6 weeks. These polls are a joke. Why not link to psychics or goth punks reading a Ouiji board? Probably as accurate.
Vote Sauron 08 on March 25, 2008 at 3:43 PM
Wow. So white liberals in Maine are politically suicidal? Anxious to pay double federal taxes to help “heal” racism in America? Or just not too hot on deep thinking?
funky chicken on March 25, 2008 at 3:43 PM
I have become much more frightened of an Obama presidency lately than a Hillary or McCain presidency. The blind adoration his supporters give him is more likely to lead to great numbers of Americans giving him carte blanche on his policies (at least for the first couple of years) with a total disregard for the cost and consequences. I think, for example, that he’d be much more likely to be able to push through some form of socialized medicine, while dislike and distrust of Hillary might cause her efforts on the same front to fail (again). I also think he’s more likely to pull out of Iraq precipitously, regardless of the advice of military advisers, intelligence, etc. I am just totally creeped out by how many otherwise intelligent people are having virtual orgasms over Obama, when they can’t for the life of them name a single Obama accomplishment and can’t quantify what kind of “change” they think he’ll bring about. At least with Hillary, they seem to treat her with a healthy skepticism that might serve to keep her in check if (God forbid) she actually becomes president.
Plus, a Hillary win in the primaries would tear the Dems apart much more than an Obama win. The whole “stolen” nomination thing would cause rioting in some quarters.
aero on March 25, 2008 at 3:43 PM
It isn’t over until someone bows out, or reaches the magic number..I don’t see either happening, therefore it won’t be over until the convention.
I keep hearing it mentioned that Hillary needs to convince the sd’s, but I don’t see a mass exodus from her column to his, nor am I seeing the undecided sd’s flocking to his column..
It’s nowhere near over.
Pam on March 25, 2008 at 3:44 PM
Try talking my “non-political” brother into voting for Obama..
If you think the Wright stuff didn’t hurt.. LMAO!
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:44 PM
anyone listen to Hewitt and the Obama cussing tapes? the ghetto side comes out some, weird to hear it.
jp on March 25, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Doesn’t seem to be that much. I can see where one would think that, but the damage seems to be relatively light.
Light as of right now. McCain is low-key while the two dems batter each other to crumbs, though you can bet his media people are putting together quite a list of subjects for campaign commercials.
Expect to see the good rev’rund featured quite prominently this summer; interspersed clips of lunacy and the Messiah™ standing proudly by his side.
Bishop on March 25, 2008 at 3:47 PM
Allah,
I think you have been bamboozled.
there it is on March 25, 2008 at 3:48 PM
anyone listen to Hewitt and the Obama cussing tapes? the ghetto side comes out some, weird to hear it.
Obamessiah is just like Hillary: affect the local patois to make yourself sound more ‘authentic’.
Bishop on March 25, 2008 at 3:48 PM
I’m still waiting for the NRA to start bashing Obama for being a “gun grabber” >:D
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 3:49 PM
I want all three of those turkeys (Fallen Messiah, HildaCackleBeast and Juan Plantation McVano) to lose.
I guess I will have to settle for 2 out of 3.
The song says that, “Cause two out of three ain’t bad”.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:50 PM
Bishop, …a bi-racial ZELIG?!
Lockstein13 on March 25, 2008 at 3:50 PM
Sounds like your brother must have a lot of votes.
MB4 on March 25, 2008 at 3:52 PM
That photo of Obama reminds me of statues of Kim Il-Sung in North Korea. . .
rbj on March 25, 2008 at 3:53 PM
Am I misunderstanding or did you just call for the firing of AP?
terryannonline on March 25, 2008 at 3:53 PM
And hopefully this is the last we will see of the Clintons for quite some time. Though they’re like herpes, you never really get rid of them. And Hilldebeast will sink her claws deep into the Senate and become one of the big Liberal power players there, a la Ted Kennedy and will remain shrill and annoying though in a less powerful capacity.
But the Clintons are tenacious…if Chelsea runs for Congress one day…beware.
mattyj86 on March 25, 2008 at 3:56 PM
If true, this shows how divisive Obama really is. The subliminal message was “Yea, so what? This is what black people think, it’s what they preach in their church, and I’m not going to disown black liberal theology.” Next thing you know he’ll want reparations legislation passed. He can model income redistribution the way Zimbabwe handled land redistribution.
Obama has set race relations back 20 years. He IS a racist, because not all [insert whatever race you want] think the same way about anything. Suggesting they do is, in itself, racist. He would be 10 times worse than Jimmy Carter.
JustTruth101 on March 25, 2008 at 3:57 PM
I just can’t see the USA electing Obama. Not because he is black but because he is such a greenhorn. If he ups taxes and launches a new “great Society” to bankroll the welfare class, we are toast.
Next thing you know the federal government will be run just like Detroit or New Orleans. When people need a kick in the butt, the dems want to give them a check instead. America seems to be getting dumber by the minute. What the heck is wrong with putting your best players on the field?
saiga on March 25, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Bishop, …a bi-racial ZELIG?!
Hooooo weee, I had to do some digging for that reference but yes, it would be an apt description.
A chicken in every pot and a new Prius in every garage, that is what the Dear Leader is promising.
Bishop on March 25, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Bill was here last week too. Which, y’know, might’ve helped around here with the Obama Surge, I dunno.
Mike H on March 25, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Johnny Mac vs Obama…….Prune juice vs Perrier. Yeah yeah yeah Barry O is a hack, but the plebs won’t care. It is gonna be 84 in reverse.
Limerick on March 25, 2008 at 4:00 PM
I guess my family is racist..
typical white family(or “Mulatto” if you go by the early official census definitions, since we are a small part American Indian)
Everyone I know so far in my family is voting Republican except my one brother , that always votes for whatever libertarian is on the ballot.
::rolls eyes::
Chakra Hammer on March 25, 2008 at 4:01 PM
Too bad you’re not part Mashantucket Pequot. You’d be wealthy overnight.
TheBigOldDog on March 25, 2008 at 4:05 PM
Do any of you remember Micky Leeland? He was the congressman from Houston that died in a plane crash in Africa. He was trying to understand his roots. It will be interesting to see how President Obama would explain away the mess over there like micky tried to. Obama would have to blame whitie somehow for the putrid squalor and the Zembabwe government that runs like a Swiss watch. And, lets not forget all the Black on Black blood letting all over the continent that whitie has caused. Or, maybe he would use Haiti as a model government.
Turd world, here we come ! !
saiga on March 25, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Doesn’t say much for the intelligence of the voters if they still support Obama after the Wright episode. If Obama didn’t agree with Wright, why did he stay in that church for 20 years?
katieanne on March 25, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Let’s see…yes, yes and absolutely.
Slublog on March 25, 2008 at 4:09 PM
Obama could burn an American flag while reading aloud from the Koran and it wouldn’t move his “base.” Those loons are locked in. It’s in the general that his troubling financial ties to criminals and 20 year association with a race-baiting, America-hater actually has impact.
Sugar Land on March 25, 2008 at 4:11 PM
A 20 point jump in 7 days? Come on.
bnelson44 on March 25, 2008 at 4:14 PM
all the more ironic is that many of these same supporters hate religion in this country and will complain and complain about the “religious right”
jp on March 25, 2008 at 4:14 PM
the HildaBeast won’t quit, not now, not ever.
if she loses the nomination this time, she’ll run every 4 years until she can win/steal/take the VP slot then whack the President….
whatever it takes
mountainmanbob on March 25, 2008 at 4:14 PM
Lets not forget First Lady Michelle Obama hosting international Dignitaries. At least the America hating countries would now have a cheerleader in the Whitehouse.
And, I wonder if Obama would take the flag down at the Whitehouse.
I can’t believe what is happening.
saiga on March 25, 2008 at 4:16 PM
The poll only means he has swung to the lead for the moment and there is a lot of time left until the actual primary (which is the only thing that counts). A 20 point swing in such a short time merely means all polls are, the the moment, invalid.
michaelo on March 25, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Mickey Kaus reports PPP changed their sample:
Karl on March 25, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Thank you very much.
I’ve been calling the voters ‘idiots’ and I didn’t get much support here.
And I’ve been saying that Hussein is playing the race card, that he hates America, long before his pastor’s story broke out, and I didn’t get much support either.
It looks like my views here don’t matter, they seem dull and turn people down like Paris Hilton homemade sex tape.
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 4:18 PM
LOL. Probably more so. Imagine how guilty they must feel that their state is less than 1% black. Their racism must be powerful up there. On the other hand, maybe some of the southern states that feel guilty about not having enough white people can send money to Maine.
JiangxiDad on March 25, 2008 at 4:21 PM
They didn’t like the results so they changed the way they got them. Problem solved!
TheBigOldDog on March 25, 2008 at 4:24 PM
maybe if you had a POV, people would respond.
JiangxiDad on March 25, 2008 at 4:24 PM
NC: Very large black vote!
jeanie on March 25, 2008 at 4:24 PM
I still think this has done a lot of damage to Obama, I don’t think he’ll get away with this.
doubleplusundead on March 25, 2008 at 4:47 PM
You have a disadvantage. Ur sane.
JiangxiDad on March 25, 2008 at 5:05 PM
I do have a “POV.”
They stole it from me and posted it all over the Internet.
It gets downloaded by the millions every day.
And still, people don’t care about my views.
Excuse me, but by “POV” you mean “POrn Video,” right?
Indy Conservative on March 25, 2008 at 5:09 PM
gotcha :)
JiangxiDad on March 25, 2008 at 5:25 PM
Don’t deal out North Carolina yet. For the past couple of years, North Carolina has had their problems. The Duke business, Muslims students attacking football players and the murder of two college students by a 17 year old Black male. We may see a replay of New Hampshire. North Carolina’s black population is only 21.7 percent. New York’s black population is 17 percent. Georgia’s and South Carolina’s black population is about 30 percent and they are both red states.
jeannie on March 25, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Obama and that snowball in hell have about the same chance at the Oval Office.
“I’m melting! Melting!” is the Barack theme.
As the scrutiny increases, BHO decreases.
profitsbeard on March 25, 2008 at 6:02 PM
We have an open primary here in NC. There are more “unaffiliated” voters than proclaimed democrat or Republican (or other). We don’t have to pledge to a crap oath, we (the unaffiliated) just tell the poll workers which ballot we want. I don’t believe Obama is 11 points ahead in NC. He may be ahead, but not by 11 points. He’s surely ahead in Durham (Duke, majority black) and Chapel Hill (UNC, latte-drinking, White-guilt liberals) and in Eastern NC (rural, large black population), but Raleigh, Winston-Salem, Greensboro are much more conservative than these areas and Western NC’s mountain areas are ripe Hillary country.
SouthernGent on March 25, 2008 at 7:00 PM
That’s right. And BHO’s speech didn’t win any moderate or conservative votes, IMO. It polarized folks, rallying the lefties and off-putting the rest of us.
petefrt on March 25, 2008 at 7:27 PM
Who will Hussein Obama pick as his running mate?
My money is on Louie Farrakhan.
SaintOlaf on March 25, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Don’t worry folks, The Hildebeast will win the nomination and unfortunately….the presidency.
At least we will have saved ourselves from the immediate destruction,globalization and islamization of the United States…
At least with Hillary we will have until maybe mid 2009 before our cities get hit with muslim nukes and she forms the Communist States of America.
SaintOlaf on March 25, 2008 at 7:56 PM
We all knew that this party wouldn’t last forever, but I doubt it’s over anytime soon. Even if she loses, she’s not quitting. They will have to drag her out of the Dim race kicking and screaming, and she will leave a lot of blood on the floor when it happens.
Hog Wild on March 25, 2008 at 9:16 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »