Taiwan chooses closer ties to Beijing
posted at 10:25 am on March 23, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Taiwan voters demanded a change in direction, electing opposition figure Ma Ying-jeou as its new president over ruling party DPP’s candidate, Frank Hsieh. The KMT has spent the last eight years in the minority, but the election of Ma gives them a mandate for closer relations to Beijing. Ma won in a landslide:
Opposition party candidate Ma Ying-jeou won a landslide victory Saturday in Taiwan’s presidential election, paving the way for greater attention to the economy and improved ties with the United States and China.
“Taiwan will be a responsible stakeholder,” Ma told reporters at his Nationalist Party campaign headquarters.
Analysts attributed Ma’s 17-percentage-point win to voter frustration with President Chen Shui-bian, known for his policy reversals, pro-independence rhetoric and rapid-fire staff changes.
Taiwan has flirted with independence, a dangerous act that would have almost certainly brought immediate and hostile reaction from the Beijing government. The US has long counseled against such an act, preferring to maintain the status quo that keeps Taiwan independent in fact if not in name. The new president apparently agrees, and hopes to find a balance that will keep from provoking a conflict between Taiwan, China, and the US.
At the same time, Taiwan rejected two different initiatives that would have attempted a return to the UN. One of the non-binding referendums would have had the government apply under the name Republic of China, and other as Taiwan. Both would have been seen as an additional provocation by Beijing — although with its attention on unrest in Tibet, they may not have had many options open at the moment for reaction. Although both received far more yes votes than no votes, neither of them came close to the 50% turnout required to validate them. Instead, both had turnout numbers in the mid-30s, a recognition that neither generated much enthusiasm.
The US and its Western allies will undoubtedly be pleased with these results. The last thing anyone needs at the moment is further opportunities for Beijing to overreact. Ma has promised to bolster defense spending, keeping it at 3% of GDP, and to coordinate closely with the US for peacekeeping in the region. That will be music to ears in Washington, which has wondered when Taiwan would create the next flashpoint for a foreign-policy crisis.
Blowback
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The whole charade is stupid. Taiwan IS INDEPENDENT! But the Red Chinese say black is white, & the whole world is afraid to disagree.
jgapinoy on March 23, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Isn’t that a bit like saying that someone consented to sex because the rapist threatened her family?
JohnJ on March 23, 2008 at 10:43 AM
If thet’re not careful they might get “closer ties” than they want.
TooTall on March 23, 2008 at 10:50 AM
The people have spoken; Taiwan is obviously independent, but I guess status quo is best, as long as China insists on being a bully.
tikvah on March 23, 2008 at 10:52 AM
I expect good things from Ma Ying-Jeou’s time in office. He was one of the best mayors Taipei ever had.
Funnily enough, he followed current outgoing president, Chen Shui-bian, as mayor and now he follows him as president. Chen is as morally bankrupt and as corrupt as they come, so anything Ma does will be a massive improvement.
Plus, the guy is smart. Real smart.
Mindcrime on March 23, 2008 at 10:53 AM
I hope things in Taiwan stay pretty much the same with improvements for thier citizens. If the Chinease were to attack Taiwan they would find a very robust defense. I do not now know exactly what is available to them but have read over recent years they may very well have wmd’s at their disposal. The Chinease know as well, that why they threaten but haven’t actualy done anything.
2theright on March 23, 2008 at 11:03 AM
Good, so be it. They are all adults just like us. If this is what they choose then let them be. It’s not our resposibility. I think the U.S. needs to tend to it’s own problems for the time being before we poke our heads in someone elses on the other side of the globe. The world is re-aligning itself and I think we would be wise to recognise that.
gator70 on March 23, 2008 at 11:07 AM
That is the sum of it. Do you remember the Butchers of Beijing thanking the World for sending aid to Taiwan after the earthquake in 1999? The World kowtows to the Butchers of Beijing when it comes to Taiwan. At the Olympics and other events Taiwan is called “Chinese Taipei”.
Mooseman on March 23, 2008 at 11:07 AM
It seems to me that we err in believing that China thinks of itself as a country in the same way that the USA, or France, or Germany does. China more closely resembles what a European Empire would be, and its history almost certainly leads its leaders to treat it that way.
njcommuter on March 23, 2008 at 11:11 AM
One concern cooling is always good. When China is sufficiently like Taiwan, they will merge.
BL@KBIRD on March 23, 2008 at 11:23 AM
I can’t believe so many “conservatives” can’t tell the difference between rape and consensual sex.
Yes, after being subjected to violence and threatened with more, Taiwan voted in favor of submission.
That’s not democracy.
JohnJ on March 23, 2008 at 11:40 AM
I’m not sure bowing to China will is a good strategy in the long term. Everybody keeps thinking that as China becomes more economically powerful, it will become more like the west. I think what we are seeing is that the west (and the US) is becoming more intimidated by China’s power and China has been getting pretty much a free ride. Also, as the Chinese people themselves are becoming aware of their power, they are becoming much more nationalistic. They are serious about absorbing Taiwan and they’ve been continually building up their military to do deal with that eventuality. What we are effectively doing is withdrawing our influence from the region and saying to China is “…this is your half of the globe, do with it what you will, just don’t make ugly faces at us”
AUINSC on March 23, 2008 at 11:55 AM
This is a good development. The KMT is not a separatist party. They never have been. In their mind, there is one China, but the difference with Beijing is about which government should control China. It may come as a shock to some, but many Taiwanese do not want independence. They want to be recognized for what they are–Chinese. The argument to them is, which form of government will rule China.
I agree with BL@CKBIRD. If we wait until Beijing and the mainland open up to the point that Taiwan has, they will naturally merge back together. Until that happens, we should preserve the status quo.
We must understand, that for the mainland, this isn’t a question of economics, or military strength facing them. This is a matter of Nationalism, and the Chinese are ultra-nationalist.
p40tiger on March 23, 2008 at 11:58 AM
To be fair, from having spent a few years there I can say that 謝長廷 was the best mayor that Kaohsiung (Taiwan’s second largest city and its primary port) ever had; the quality of the cityscape in that town has improved dramatically in the past decade, culminating last month in the opening of the KMRT. But being mayor is not quite the same as being president. Mayor Ma will find that being President Ma is quite different.
It’s not truly accurate to say that the KMT has been the “opposition” party, since they have controlled the legislative Yuan for the entire 8 years of the Chen administration and made life very difficult for him. However, as much as I support the DPP’s aim of an independent Taiwan, I have to say that A-Bian was a thoroughly ineffectual president who often left you scratching your head. What a waste of opportunity for the DPP.
At present there is no shortage of Taiwanese who look longingly at the strong horse that is the Mainland. Hopefully Ma will use this mandate to improve Taiwan’s economy. He needs to walk a very delicate line with the CCP, using them when it will benefit Taiwan and shunning them when they threaten Taiwan. If he can pull it off, it may convince many more Taiwanese that they are not the weak horse and may strengthen the flagging sense of a distinct Taiwanese identity.
KGB on March 23, 2008 at 12:39 PM
QFT
- The Cat
MirCat on March 23, 2008 at 1:14 PM
P.S. Thanks to the Truman Legacy.
MirCat on March 23, 2008 at 1:16 PM
So what do we do when someday China decides it doesn’t like the status quo anymore? It’s an elephant in the room, but just like with Nazi Germany, Imperialist Japan, Soviet Russia, radical Islam, etc. we seem to want to ignore it as long as we possibly can.
Grayson on March 23, 2008 at 1:22 PM
I most assuredly disagree with this characterization of the vote. Well more than 50% of the people voting supported the refurendums to enter the UN. They have a requirement, however, that dictates a result of over 50% of eligible voters. No referendum in any state in this country would ever survive such a requirement, even wildly popular ones. American theories of democracy, nor countries in Europe that I’m aware of, require such a strict standard as a mark of legitimacy or approval.
So while it is technically accurate to say the referendums didn’t pass, it is also wildly inaccurate to say they were “rejected”.
Nessuno on March 23, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Are any of you from Taiwan?
If you know people from Taiwan, why don’t you ask them?
I have friends from Taiwan. SEVERAL friends from Taiwan. We’ve discussed this subject.
They simultaneously see themselves both as “Taiwanese” and as “Chinese” since they’re clearly of Chinese heritage. Not all of them fled the Communist takeover in ’48. A very large proportion of “Taiwanese” come from families who have been on Taiwan for 300 to 400 years, many of whom came from either the provinces of Fujian (the closest mainland province geographically) or Guangdong (the next province just south of Fujian). They simultaneously see themselves as both different from the mainland yet still part of what could be called “Greater China” if you include Hong Kong, Macao, perhaps even Singapore.
My point is neither to criticize nor defend the government in Beijing. It will do whatever it does.
And that’s the whole driver behind how folks on Taiwan feel, as far as my friends have explained it to me. There are three considerations here, military and economic and political.
Militarily, yes Taiwan could possibly put up a fight for a while if the PLA attacked, but ultimately without help from larger allies like the US, couldn’t win. They could make victory costly for the PLA, but ultimately, the end game is known unless the US is willing to go to nuclear brinksmanship with Beijing and frankly, I doubt even a Republican administration would be willing to go that far. Obviously, people on Taiwan would rather Beijing not attack so they can go about living their lives as they do.
Economically, the status quo is quite advantageous to Taiwan. Taiwan has enourmous direct investment in finances, plant & equipment, and business enterprises that yield profit for involved players on both sides of the straits. Taiwanese can visit the mainland and return home anytime they want. Mainlanders are not allowed to do the same. This gives the edge to businesspeople and investors on the Taiwan side. Why should they want a President who repeatedly inflames the ire of the Beijing government and thus poses a serious risk to that profit? Answer: They DON’T and they just VOTED that mandate.
Which takes us to the political consideration: Under the current system, they CAN vote such a mandate. If they provoke an invasion, they LOSE that freedom to vote for the status quo. Faced with such a choice, which would you choose? OH…unless you’re from Taiwan, I take any answer to that question with SEVERAL grains of huge-a** kosher rock salt.
Shirotayama on March 23, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Between the ongoing pressure over Darfur (especially from folks who finally understand they can’t blame GW Bush for every problem in the World) and the Tibetan “issues”, I don’t think China is too focused on anything but maintaining its faltering International image.
dmh0667 on March 23, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Taiwan was never owned by China for very long. It was probably independent longer. It was also owned and occupied by the Dutch and Japanese for long periods of time. China’s claim is probably no better than Japan’s would be. But it is now majority Han chinese. So unification with the Chinese mainland may very well occur when the political implications of the action are meaningless. Hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese live in Shanghai leading the renaissance of that city.
If the Chinese are smart, they’ll find a financially lucrative arrangement with Tibet too. Tourists would go ape shit for the place I’m sure. Club Med Lhasa?
JiangxiDad on March 23, 2008 at 2:46 PM
I hope that they keep the status quo. We do not need another war.
Johan Klaus on March 23, 2008 at 6:26 PM
I live and work in Taiwan, at the moment, so I’m relatively close to the politics here. Plus wife is Taiwanese, but she’s batshiat crazy so her opinion goes into the “will consider it in the future” file :P
Mindcrime on March 23, 2008 at 6:33 PM
I have never undersood why the Taiwanese do not advocate a policy of reconciliation. The intent being for Taiwan to rejoin with the mainland as one country and entity. The only condidtion being that the Communists agree to a multi-party system with the freedoms that the Taiwanese enjoy.
Ragnarok on March 23, 2008 at 6:37 PM
The ratio between ethnic Taiwanese and waisenren, or the Mainlanders who came over in exile with CKS, is quite significant. Before the Nationalists got here, the Japanese ran the ran show and unlike what happened in places like Nanjing and “Manchukuo” they ran this place like a small utopia. So, the ethnic Taiwanese resented the hell out of the Nationalists pretty much up until Lee Dunghui was handed the presidency by Chiang Jingguo. They look at the Mainland as hopelessly backward, disgustingly polluted, and dirt poor. Why would they want to reconcile with that? Also, as mentioned higher up in the thread, Taiwan has been independent of Beijing’s rule a lot longer than it not. At least in Taiwanese eyes (it doesn’t matter than Emperor So-and-So of the X Dynasty declared ownership over the fabled Taoist haven of Taiwan in the year XXX BC – nobody from the Mainland ever made a point of actually discovering the place in order to plant their flag).
In recent years, though, the children of the hybrid Taiwanese/waisenren marriages have taken a more centrist view point, which is to be expected. I don’t think Taiwanese people ever really want to reunite with the Mainland. It would be a logistical nightmare, even if the Mainland adopted Taiwanese style democracy. I think what they (and more importantly the KMT, now led by Ma Ying-Jeou) are doing is delaying long enough for the Mainland to reform, then they will formally split.
Until then, there’s no point in declaring formal independence. The old guard revolutionaries and their brainwashed offspring still run the PRC, and they would hammer the crap out of this place in an instant. Doesn’t matter that such a move would bankrupt their country (Taiwan is like the #2 or #3 investor in China behind the U.S. and Japan).
Mindcrime on March 23, 2008 at 6:59 PM
I hope you’re right but I’m cynical.
Grayson on March 23, 2008 at 7:44 PM
Let’s see what happens before, during, and after the Olympics…….
Meh……. It always starts this way:
Seven Percent Solution on March 23, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Thank you for your input. It is interesting reading the Taiwanese point of view. I live in the Mainland, and every time Taiwan has an election, people here get antsy.
I think most people outside China don’t realize that it is not just Beijing who is intent on re-unification, but the Chinese people too. Ever since the KMT fled to Taiwan in 1949, the Chinese have had this bug in their bonnet about Taiwan. It hasn’t gone away.
One example of how Chinese people feel: I know a 5’4″ woman who says she could give a rat’s butt about politics, and as far as she is concerned, Taiwan can do whatever it wants–she doesn’t care, but the following sentence is always, “but if they try to separate, I will absolutely favor war. I’ll even try to join up myself.”
p40tiger on March 23, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Well, I think politics do matter. Tianenmen Square matters as does Tibet, Dafur, North Korea and countless other places where this totalitarian regime has made it’s mark. If mainland Chinese don’t care because of their blind nationalistic agendas, to hell with them. Others in the world do care about freedom and basic human rights. Not because we hate China, but because the CCP hates human rights and liberty and proves it on an almost daily basis.
AUINSC on March 23, 2008 at 11:02 PM
I think you’re missing the point. If we want to ignore the feelings of the Chinese people, then fine. But that sentiment has consequences. Today’s China is not 1989. The government has the support of the majority of the people (with economic prosperity, they have no reason to be unhappy). So if we want to disregard the strong resolve of 1.3 billion people, and are willing to go to war over it, we will have a hard fight. I’m not saying it won’t come to that, but I think we should see what is, and not what was. A lot of the information Americans have is either old, overblown, or just wrong.
p40tiger on March 23, 2008 at 11:35 PM
While I think Ed’s realpolitik view of the situation is, for lack of a better word, pathetic, I agree that the Taiwanese are adults capable of making their own decisions.
We should stick by our word – which is worth less than our dollar presently after decades of empty American promises – and support the Taiwanese to the hilt. However, if they don’t want to adamantly support their own independence, despite being fully aware of the kind of resolve that would be necessary to stave off China, then there’s nothing we can rightly do about it.
My suggestion would be to clandestinely supply Taiwan with a sizable allotment of nukes, make sure PRC knows about them, and wash our hands of the (tactical) situation. If Taiwan is willing to play the game of nuclear brinksmanship to protect their independence – and that’s what any disagreement with modern China entails – they should be able to give it a go without America having to put our population up as a first ante.
HitNRun on March 24, 2008 at 12:20 AM
Could you give some specific examples? I mean. was their something in my last post that meets this criteria? What is ‘old, overblown, or just wrong’ about what what I cited that the CPP has done in just the last 20 years? And, what if 1.3 billion Chinese are dead wrong…morally and intellectually, wrong, yet determined to see their will be done? We don’t want to rock that boat do we? Because, you know, 1.3 billion very wrong people…that’s a lot of people, no? If it were, like 3 dudes, we could deal with that, but 1.3 billion…no way. So let’s just pretend they have a point, why don’t we?
AUINSC on March 24, 2008 at 12:29 AM
I agree with you about them being wrong. They are wrong about a lot of things. But a lot of what I hear from family and friends back home about “what it’s like” in China are just not true.
For example: 1) the people are unhappy with the system–not true. 2) They are die hard commies–not true, they don’t really care, as long as they are healthy and happy. 3) They totally oppress Christianity and religion, and their Bibles are different–not true. I speak advanced to fluent Chinese, and can read the Bibles here. I have often been touched by the believer’s faith here. 4) They are strictly controlling little parts of peoples’ lives here–not true. I see many mini-protests, and lots of people talk bad about the government and their stupid policies, and in some ways, they are freer to talk about stuff that we are (religion for example is talked about much more openly here–mostly because of our own self-imposed prison of PC).
These are just a few examples. There is a lot wrong with China, and I dispise their government. I have no problem competing with and being victorious over them if necessary, but I don’t think we need to be arch-enemies. The spirit of the people is good, though they have Confucian ideas of obedience, and Socialist ideas of “the party” ingrained in them. I think a confrontation can and should be avoided, especially when there are lots of opportunities for friendship.
We tend to think of different people as thinking and believing like we do. The Chinese brain is completely different from ours, and I don’t think they need to be exactly in line with our way of thinking always. I agree that they are wrong about a good many things. Good change does not happen overnight.
p40tiger on March 24, 2008 at 1:50 AM
I’m not sure that sample constitutes a ‘lot of Americans’ actually, but, yeah, some of those do sound like wrong ideas about Chinese. The Christianity thing is right though. The Chinese seem to be tolerating some of it now, mostly to appease the west, but Chinese christians are in constant danger and they know it. At any time, the CCP can go all fengshui on them, and then they can worship in concentration camps (if they are lucky and one of the mobile death vans don’t catch up with them first)…that crack down can happen at any time.
That’s exactly what any totalitarian government relies on. Of course they are not die-hard commies. The are rabid Han nationalists, however. Their entire political system is a big fraud and lie and they know it and they don’t care as long as they can live a good life. At least I could respect a die-hard commie because he actually believes in something.
I think many who believe as I pointed out earlier (the people who so ‘if we only do business with them and ignore their ‘faults’, they will become more like us’) illustrate most of my points. They really don’t think like us at all. They want to be a wealthy, totalitarian, racially homogeneous superpower. They are well on their way. They really don’t care about rights and freedoms for themselves and even less for others.
AUINSC on March 24, 2008 at 2:48 AM
What you said about Christianity is true is some isolated spots, and generally true in the 80′s and 90′s, but your statement about that is generally wrong. If a house fellowship does something to cause the government to lose face, then yes, they might have some trouble, or have some people detained, but it isn’t as troublesome as what you have been told. I have very close friends who are believers here, and while they are understandably cautious, it is nothing like the “feeding to the lion” days of the Roman Empire. Falun Gong has a much more difficult time than Christians do. You should read “Jesus in Beijing.” I don’t remember the author, but it gives a decent look at Christianity in China today. In fact, the persecution of the Chinese church has made the believers here much stronger and more solid than many back home. And none of them are praying for the end of their system of government. They say the government has made a mistake about Christianity, but to think they are pining for a day when their government has a system change would be a huge error.
As far as hoping they “become like us,” why would we be so arrogant as to hope the world becomes like us? I think we should foster friendships with other nations, but we can’t expect them to be just like us. I think that is naive to think that way. Other peoples have different backgrounds than we do. The Chinese, for example, due to Confucianism, and thousands of years of Empire, do not have the same concept of “individual freedom” that we do because their culture is based on groups, not individuals. Do you expect them to get rid of their culture? It is arrogant to wish that another country’s system has to look like ours, whether it be Palestine (with their votes for Jihadists), or Iraq, or China. Culture and custom has to play a part in government systems. While I rabidly oppose socialism in America, if Europe chooses it, I am not going to cry over it. As long as they can cooperate with us, be friends with us, and play fair (which China does not, at this point), then I have no problem with it. Ultimately, a government derives its authority from the people.
My last point is, the Chinese have already changed a lot due to the opening up and doing business with the west. Like I said, you can discuss things here (like religion in a classroom) that can’t be discussed in America. They went from wearing gray/blue mao suits eating in a community caffeteria and watching propaganda films to wearing Gucci (albeit sometimes fake) and eating steaks, and watching “Spiderman” in the theaters. They’ve gone from riding bikes to driving BMW’s. They’ve gone from going to war with America to protect North Korea to saying everything from South Korea is good and cool (and adding that life in North Korea is horrible and that Kim is a madman). Doing business with us (and the west) has changed them, and will continue to do so.
Don’t get me wrong, they have a long way to go, but condemning them as completely wrong and the new Soviet Union is short-sighted and rather reckless, in my opinion.
Sorry for the long post. Have a good day.
p40tiger on March 24, 2008 at 6:46 AM
Oh, about the trouble with Christianity, some of the reason Americans think it is so awful is because they (the foreigner) go to house fellowships, which draws a lot of attention. So, the people are nervous, and sometimes get caught. We as foreigners going to a widely-known, but illegal activity will cause a lot of trouble for the local believer.
p40tiger on March 24, 2008 at 6:49 AM
I have a couple of Taiwanese friends. Like me they were alive in 1945 when Taiwan was handed over to the KMT by the USA. The KMT ruled Taiwan for four years from Nanking. Those were the only four years during the last 112 years that Taiwan has been subservient to the mainland. My friends did not like that act and they consider the KMT refugees from the mainland to be invaders. The USA has not treated the Taiwanese, in contrast to the KMT, well.
burt on March 24, 2008 at 8:32 AM