Minnesota gets purple
posted at 11:45 am on March 21, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Rasmussen has been tracking the polls in several crucial battleground states for November’s presidential election, and has assigned states to their likely winners at this point in the race. Minnesota, which has voted Democratic since 1988 and went for John Kerry by just under four points in 2004, had looked like a solid Democratic state in 2008 as well. Now Rasmussen has moved the state to the leaners, indicating some Republican momentum:
In Minnesota, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. The election poll also shows McCain essentially even with Hillary Clinton, leading her by a statistically insignificant 47% to 46%.
Obama leads McCain by eight points among women but trails by a single point among men. Clinton leads McCain by twelve among women but trails by seventeen among men. …
With release of this poll, Minnesota shifts from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
I’m a little surprised. The state GOP had a disastrous 2006 election, losing control of the lower chamber of the state legislature and every statewide office except Governor — and only holding that by a mere 20,000 votes. The DFL, which is the Democratic Party in this state, has expanded its power base since that time to strengthen themselves at the expense of state Republicans, who have spent the last year infighting.
Two factors are at play here. One, John McCain is a popular figure here, as the state tends towards the moderate and straight-spoken. Tim Pawlenty’s early and constant support helps in this case, especially since Pawlenty has done a good job of nevigating the dangerous waters of a DFL-controlled legislature.
But without a doubt, Obama’s issues with Jeremiah Wright has done a lot of damage. In February, as Rasmussen points out, Obama led McCain by 15 points in Minnesota. Since the start of the Rezko trial, the Wright controversy, and the NAFTA Dance, McCain has picked up support at Obama’s expense in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. These are not just key states for the Electoral College, but also representative of working-class America. It indicates that the far-left, fire-breathing rhetoric of a man whom Obama himself calls his spiritual mentor and political adviser has sounded a very sour note among a broad spectrum of voters.
If McCain can put Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in play, the Democrats are dead in November.
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Obama cannot possibly lose Minnesota, even if he was convicted on murder charges before the election. I hold no hope for MN voting Republican, although I will put one chip into the red pile.
If Hillary won the nomination in some twisting of the space-time continuum, then there is a slight possibility of McCain carrying MN.
Grafted on March 21, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Was not Minnesota the only state to go to Mondale in 1984?
carbon_footprint on March 21, 2008 at 11:50 AM
the Dems have to win Ohio and Penn to win I think. McCain wins both against Obama and if it puts in play Mich. and Minnesota and forces them to campaign there it could be a landslide. Not to mention NJ possibly.
Hillary is stronger in the purple states so maybe Obama is our man afterall?
jp on March 21, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m thinking Keith Ellison is the watermark for Minnesota, and I lived in White Bear Lake for 3 years.
a capella on March 21, 2008 at 11:54 AM
And one thing that might help McCain carry Minnesota is that the great hypocrite Al Franken will be the Democrat candidate for US Senate. Franken is the same man who claims to be a working class hero and champion and then turned out to be a phony who did not provide workers compensation insurance to his New York employees. Even worse, Franken has ducked paying his fine owed to the State of New York for years. If Franken’s employees were injured on the job, Franken had an attitude of “so what! Let them go to the emergency room”. Franken is always screaming about the rich not paying their taxes. And this from a man who skillfully ducked New York State Labor Department officials for three years. Rest assured that the Minneapolis Star Tribune will bury the story.
Larraby on March 21, 2008 at 11:55 AM
colorado, missori and nevada are tossups?
jp on March 21, 2008 at 11:55 AM
Carbon_Footprint is right. Minnesota has actually voted Dem since Nixon’s landslide in 1972.
PurpleWombats on March 21, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Like so many other states, this is one of those that depends on the outcome of the Democratic nomination process: Hillary turns it purple, Obama likely locks it up. Putting Minnesota and Pennsylvania in play helps because between the two there are a fair number of recoverable House seats.
BUT I’ve been having a crazy thought lately: if Hillary’s the nominee, I think Illinois is back in play. Black voters in the inner city will stay home; McCain plays relatively well among Hispanics in the same areas.Further, what few white ethnic voters there are left may be more likely McCain than Clinton supporters; I think the fact that a pretty serious and well-funded primary challenge in the IL-3 by a “progressive” against conservative Democratic incumbent Dan Lipinski fell so short says something. Democratic turnout overall may be somewhat down if Obama’s not the nominee out of a feeling that he’s been robbed. Rezko and the governor’s troubles are probably a drag on Democratic prospects in general there. Winning will take an aggressive GOTV operation on the part of the McCain campaign both in the collar counties and exurbs, as well as downstate. Am I crazy?
gstevens97 on March 21, 2008 at 11:59 AM
If Minnesota is going to vote for a Republican, John McCain is that Republican. He is the kind of Republican that the fine people of Minnesota would love.
Jeff_McAwesome on March 21, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Aren’t they dead anyway? Replay 2004 with a wider margin of victory in Ohio and Florida and their dead. And the number of Hillary or Obama supporters that are going to defect to McCain. Then there are the debateable issues. Corruption, who’s in who’s pocket, and as you have noted Hillary and Obama are filthy with wall street money, while McCain has never sent an earmark to Arizona, and campaigned against ethanol. From a rational basis he comes out better on the most significant issues. I do not mean to be presumptuous but it is looking better and better for McCain.
Theworldisnotenough on March 21, 2008 at 12:02 PM
jp: I think Obama’s turnout-generating appeal is his biggest danger. This is especially true of the turnout he’ll generate among true-blue liberals and the black community, plausibly putting Virginia, and possibly putting North Carolina, into play; Hillary loses both of those. Hillary will also hurt down-ticket Democrats nationwide.
gstevens97 on March 21, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Excuse my lack of glee, but conservatism is dead in November no matter who wins.
Valiant on March 21, 2008 at 12:08 PM
if Hillary is the nominee, to go along with the strong dislike of her already, is the talking point that we don’t want to go Bush-Clinton-Bush—-Clinton in the whitehouse…we need “change”, blah blah.
although, I fail to see how she gets the nod at this point with out Edwards throwing all his delegates behind her and the super delegats following suit.
With Obama, we might can get his negatives to hillary territory with the videos of his cult.
jp on March 21, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Might want to double check that, Ed- Minnesota went to Dukakis in 1988.
Hollowpoint on March 21, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Agreed! And if I know how to do an Irish jig I’d be doing it!
But trying to stay in reality, it’s still early. Not until the conventions are over will I truly believe anyone is “dead” in this thing…
JetBoy on March 21, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Yup- and the last time Minnesota went Republican before that? 1956.
Hollowpoint on March 21, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Maybe if McCain body slams someone and pretends to be a Navy seal and blabbers on and on incoherently about nothing at all Minnesota will give him the nod. Then he can proceed to waste 4 years of our lives.
Then again, there’s always Skip. The Larouche of MN politics. Is there an office he hasn’t ran for?
Sammy316 on March 21, 2008 at 12:36 PM
I’m happy for you, Ed, but if we could only move Maryland even the slightest distance from where it is now (”A Republican? What’s that?”), that would really make my day.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on March 21, 2008 at 12:44 PM
So true!
brtex on March 21, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Put McCain in a Jessy Ventura getup and you’ll have Michigan
Kini on March 21, 2008 at 1:17 PM
We’re in real good shape if the Democrats have to devote resources to Minnesota.
Mattpat11 on March 21, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Minnesota voting for Mccain??
That’s not going to happen…minnesota over the past decade has become an islamist paradise like Michigan.. they will assuredly vote for the islamist candidate Barack Hussein Obama.
SaintOlaf on March 21, 2008 at 1:28 PM
I’m in MN, McCain has my vote.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Ed, you better start factoring turnout into your equation. Barack Obama is going to easily break the 70 million mark in popular vote. McCain will not break 60 million because of so many conservatives like me voting third party (Constitution Party) or others who will be sitting out. Obama will easily hold all the states Kerry won in 2004 and pick-up at the very least Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, enough to give Obama the victory. Personally, I think it’s going to be much worse and a total landslide with the Democrats coming very close to reaching 60 seats in the Senate and they will pick-up at least 20 seats in the House.
Obama supporters are motivated FOR him. McCain supporters, most of whom can’t stand him, are going to be motivated by being against the other candidate. You will see this difference in the GOTV effort. Being FOR something = donations and volunteer effort. Being against something = sitting at home hoping your side wins.
You can quote all the polls you want, but in doing so you are ignoring what has happened so far in the Democratic primaries and caucuses so far regarding record turnout. Obama’s experience as a community organizer will be the deciding factor in this election. There will be an all-time record turnout.
olympian2008 on March 21, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Yes, and when he lost his Senate bid against Norm Coleman a few years ago, Mondale became the only person to ever lose an election at the federal level in every state in the country.
Kevin71 on March 21, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Oh it was dead, in 2000, then in 2004.. get over yourselves already, we have a war to win.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 1:44 PM
When rubber meets the road people aren’t going to vote 3rd party, and throw a vote away.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Please explain to me in what way McCain is worse for conservatism than GW Bush?
Immolate on March 21, 2008 at 1:51 PM
I’m seriously disturbed, as Chakra Hammer pointed out, to hear people talking about voting third-party out of pure spite in the midst of a war. Almost everyone has issues with McCain, but there’s the line by some oldtime pol that “if you agree with me 7 times out of ten, vote for me; if you agree with me ten times out of ten, see a therapist.”
gstevens97 on March 21, 2008 at 1:56 PM
That’s a tough one. First, Bush is not hostile to Christians as he is one. I’m not sure what McCain is and neither is he.
Bush tried to redefine conservatism to meet his
compassionatebig government agenda. McCain would be worse because he has made it clear he does not want or need conservative support to take the White House. If he wins, he will spitefully take it out of our hides. He hate conservatives more than he hates the New York Times.Valiant on March 21, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Even on the one or two things I agree with McCain about, I disagree how he plans to achieve the goals. We’re a long way from 70% in agreement.
Valiant on March 21, 2008 at 2:02 PM
And Minnesotans are especially sensitive to “creeping Islamism.” Remember the incidents at the Minneapolis Airport a couple years back: Muslim Cabbies refusing to carry Gays, the Blind, and travelers carrying wine in their baggage, in their cabs, plus the famous “Flying Imams.”
Obama’s ties to the Nation of Islam and Louis Farrakhan through “Rev.” Wright may be dovetaling into this fear of Islamization.
ericdondero on March 21, 2008 at 2:05 PM
One does NOT forgive people that torture you for YEARS on end for no reason.
Valiant you need to go play somewhere else, as your name does not apply to you.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Chakra Hammer I used to think we were the party of grownups, however the pouting, namecalling, and downright childish behavior of many of our members has made me doubt that. I hope you are right and when the rubber meets the road most of us will figuratively hold our noses and vote for McCain. I know I am, because the war and the SCOTUS are more important than immigration, to me.
talking_mouse on March 21, 2008 at 2:10 PM
Wait until one of them, Obama or Hillary loses(even if one is selected as a VP, they are still the loser) and some of their supporters are going to be upset and vote third party or vote for McCain.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I just live in MN, I was born in Indiana and still consider myself a Hoosier!
(I still go for Da Bears and Colts!) >:D
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Olympian needs to figure in the fact that all primaries thus far were held BEFORE the Jeremiah Wright story broke. Outside the African-American vote, Obama won’t get the same kind of turnout in future primaries, due to formerly “hopeful” white voters who might identify with Obama’s grandmother.
As for Obama holding Kerry’s states in the general election, Rasmussen already has polls showing McCain beating Obama in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington state, all of which were won by Kerry in 2004. Obama is also far behind in Ohio and Florida, which Democrats would have to win to win the Presidency.
Steve Z on March 21, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Elections smelections….. this conservative is still searching for a cheesesteak in MN……
MNDavenotPC on March 21, 2008 at 2:38 PM
Speaks volumes, not for McCain, but for the ineptness of the Democratic candidates.
TooTall on March 21, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Keep your caboose hinged to the Jeremiah Wright story and you are in for a BIG let down. The War in Iraq (well over 60% against), the economy, gas prices, etc. are going to be the issue the election is decided upon. Add that to Obama’s ability to organize and GOTV and you have a landslide win. Go ahead a take comfort in polls right now. Once the Democrats have a nominee and Obama’s folks get down to business you are going to see a turnout that is going to have significant downticket impact in congressional, Senate, state and local races. If Obama is the Democratic nominee the Republicans will lose Wayne Allard’s Senate seat here in Colorado and Marilyn Musgrave’s House seat. This is going to happen all across the country.
As I posted in another thread, straw poll from our support team here at work. 3 Obama, 1 Green Party, 4 McCain (3 of them are not FOR McCain, but against Hillary or Obama), 2 Libertarian Party, 2 Constitution Party (I’m one of these votes).
In 2004 the breakdown from this same group was 4 Kerry, 7 Bush and 1 Libertarian Party.
Of my brothers and sister in 2004 it was a 5 vote sweep for Bush. This year it’s going to be 2 for McCain, 1 Constitution Party (me), 1 Libertarian Party and my sister is voting for Obama (and volunteering).
Also keep an eye on the polls over at Free Republic. McCain is NOT going to get at least 10% of the support that President Bush received in 2004. It may end up being closer to 15%.
olympian2008 on March 21, 2008 at 3:28 PM
Are you from Philly?
I’m in MN from “The Chicagoland Area” And I’m still looking for “real pizza” in MN. >:{
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 3:40 PM
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 3:40 PM
You mean Old Chicago isn’t real pizza? They had me fooled.
cjs1943 on March 21, 2008 at 3:47 PM
not sure about that… McCain is pandering to the middle of the roaders.. not really the kind of poeple to feel strongly one way or another, i.e. give money to to..
he won’t necessarily win with it.. but he can’t lose without it..
3 of the things I disagree on with McCain is immigration, economics, and ‘Climate change’.
should I still vote for him.. those seem kinda big issues..
DaveC on March 21, 2008 at 4:45 PM
So you are willingly going to help Obama win?
mikeyboss on March 21, 2008 at 5:14 PM
I’ve got HOPE for CHANGE here in Minnesnowta. The caucus I went to was a record breaker, as was many across the state. If Govner Timmy is the Veep, that will push it over the top and McCain is well aware of that.
I still worry when I tell people where I’m from, that they will remember that map with only one blue state on it. That wasn’t my fault. I voted as many times as legal.
oakpack on March 21, 2008 at 5:20 PM
If Govner Timmy is the Veep, that will push it over the top and McCain is well aware of that.
oakpack on March 21, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Yep, could be a compelling reason for VP Pawlenty.
cs89 on March 21, 2008 at 6:22 PM
Thats not really Pizza.. that “average”.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Only if you let it die by sitting at home and crying while Socialists win the White House…
Whah…
Squid Shark on March 21, 2008 at 6:59 PM
Good, then we agree that the Gitmo-closing, waterboarding-banning, global warming socialist nut McCain should not be president.
Valiant on March 22, 2008 at 4:31 AM
I live in Minnesota…I’m a conservative and I don’t have a dog in this hunt! Minnesota will NOT vote for McCain, by the way! We are even thinking about voting for the comedian that is totally not funny for the Senate (Franken), which would be about right for our state!
sabbott on March 22, 2008 at 6:40 AM
I’m voting for McCain to spite all of the more-conservative-than-thou people who are crying because their boy didn’t win. Why the hell even have a party after all? McCain may be a jerk , but he will kill terrorists. He will continue to kill terrorists until such time as the US is safe. The democrats will surrender at all times and in all places.
OmegaPaladin on March 22, 2008 at 7:00 AM
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