The Wright Stuff: Obama sinking in critical state polls
posted at 11:20 am on March 20, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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SurveyUSA shows that the Jeremiah Wright scandal has had a strong impact on the primary campaign, to the detriment of Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics looks at the damage done thus far, although the polling preceded Obama’s speech in defense of his relationship with Rev. Wright. The results may give Hillary Clinton some ammunition for her argument to superdelegates:
[Ohio:] For Obama, it’s a 17-point swing against him since the last SurveyUSA poll taken just three weeks ago, going up from up ten on McCain to down seven. Clinton has slipped four points over the same period but still leads McCain by six.
[Missouri:] Again, Obama’s support slipped three points in Missouri while McCain’s rose five, giving McCain a substantial 14-point lead. Over the same period Clinton picked up four points on McCain according to the SUSA survey.
[Kentucky:] Not that Kentucky was in any danger of going blue, but McCain’s support jumped 10 points and Obama’s dropped five in three weeks. Clinton’s support remained steady, though she trails McCain by 10.
Note that both McCain and Hillary have gained in the same period in which Obama dropped like a stone in these key states. Ohio’s results will make the strongest argument for Hillary. If the Democrats want to beat the Republicans in November, they need to flip Ohio while holding onto their other 2004 states. Against McCain that becomes especially important, because McCain can compete with them in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that John Kerry and Al Gore won against George Bush.
These polls will set the question up for the superdelegates. The next round of polling will show whether they need to make a decision to throw Obama over the side on an electability argument. If the polling continues to slide for Obama in Ohio and Missouri, and if McCain continues to do well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Democrats simply cannot afford to nominate Obama. That, in fact, is the express mission of the superdelegates — to avoid a general-election disaster like George McGovern, and not to simply rubber-stamp the popular vote or the pledged-delegate leader.
Will the superdelegates have the guts to make that call? You can bet they hope that Obama’s polling before Pennsylvania makes a dramatic improvement so that they don’t have that responsibility thrust onto them.
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Obama is finished. Yay!
PoliticallyIncorrectSandy on March 20, 2008 at 11:24 AM
And now this.
amerpundit on March 20, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Not really a surprise considering the aboslute pounding Obama has been taking the last two weeks.
November’s a long way off, and he’s still the likely nominee. We’ll see what happens.
Tom_Shipley on March 20, 2008 at 11:25 AM
But, they also can’t afford to give it to Hillary and lose the Obama groupies. For those living in the Denver area, this might be a good time to evaluate and upgrade your property fire insurance levels.
a capella on March 20, 2008 at 11:26 AM
You never know when you’re dealing with stupid voters.
Expect anything.
Who would have thought, for example, that a White Iowa would vote overwhelmingly for a Black empty suit?
So, don’t take those polls seriously.
The idiocy of the American voters is beyond imagination.
Indy Conservative on March 20, 2008 at 11:28 AM
What is going on is just opening the eyes of some. Not wide enough, but enough they have a slit and can see some light.l
upinak on March 20, 2008 at 11:30 AM
amerpundit on March 20, 2008 at 11:25 AM
NICE!
upinak on March 20, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Watch out, Tom, you’re in total agreement with Dick Morris!
Del Dolemonte on March 20, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Here’s the problem. It’s nothing McCain has done to cause his rise. It’s what Obama failed at. McCain needs to do something to keep him up in the polls. What? Who knows.
But relying on bumbling of others to help your poll numbers higher is not a wise strategy.
lorien1973 on March 20, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Will the superdelegates destroy the very party that put them into power? I don’t know…
WisCon on March 20, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Good, I’m glad Obama is sinking in the polls. The man is an empty suit and his speech was just as empty.
It’s also a bit heartening and gives me a bit more faith in American voters knowing they are able (when presented with the truth) to realize what this guy is all about, and he’s all about “AMERICA and WHITEY are the cause of all the world’s woes!”
Liberty or Death on March 20, 2008 at 11:33 AM
“November’s a long way off, and he’s still the likely nominee. We’ll see what happens.”
I don’t agree. The white voters that Obama needs to win the nomination, much less the Presidency, now see Obama for what he is – hopelessly tied to the black grievance industry.
That isn’t going to change and I really doubt this will be the last time the voting public is reminded that Obama is merely a more polished and reasonable embodiement of the politics of Al Sharpton/Jesse Jackson.
NoDonkey on March 20, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Heh. This while the ass-clown media dingbats are still trying to catch their breath from the Obama speech. Something named Michael Smerconish in Philly has soiled himself over Obama, a al Matthews.
Jaibones on March 20, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I’m pretty sure McCain isn’t taking a vacation or isn’t planning for the future but why not let your opponents destroy each other without having to do a thing?
Yakko77 on March 20, 2008 at 11:36 AM
…Because the superdelgates are wimpy, wimpy, wimpy.
omnipotent on March 20, 2008 at 11:38 AM
amerpundit on March 20, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Your going to find a ton of black preachers who sound like this, and you’ll probably be able to link more of them to Obama somehow (their sister’s boyfriend’s cousin dated Barrack’s best friend in high school).
The thing about Wright and his sermons, is this stuff is kind of commonplace within black communities. I think a lot a people have know this and just kind of accepted it or ignored it.
Obama obviously saw it and absorbed it. But his rhetoric is and has been exactly the opposite of what Wright’s controversial sermons conveyed. He in a sense rejected that kind of speech by not adopting, but choosing to try and unify the country through his politics.
No, he didn’t directly condemn that kind of talk before. And probably he should have. But he has now. And it was an impressive speech. A tough speech without much of a precident. I think in the long run, it will help him.
Tom_Shipley on March 20, 2008 at 11:40 AM
The weirdest thing about this whole situation?
Barry did this to himself. If this was from the Clinton Opposition team it would have come out after Bill said Obama was just like Jesse. This was exactly what they needed to drive the point home.
The pastors words were ridiculous…but Barry’s reaction is what really did him in.
The Supers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
At this moment riots seem inevitable.
Dorvillian on March 20, 2008 at 11:41 AM
A lot has happened besides Wright in the past 3 weeks. The momentum was turning away from Obama before Wright anyway.
ninjapirate on March 20, 2008 at 11:43 AM
now see Obama for what he is – hopelessly tied to the black grievance industry.
But he’s not tied to it. He’s live in a community that those kind of thoughts pervade… but, in all honesty, many black people live in communities where that kind of thinking lives. If that disqualifies one from being president, you’re basically saying no black person that lives in an urban area can be president.
His speech was a genuine attempt to condemn that kind of thinking without writing off the people who think that and attempt to bring the country together.
Again, I think it has a chance to resonate with white voters. We’ll see.
Tom_Shipley on March 20, 2008 at 11:44 AM
He didn’t condemn the talk when he originally knew about it and only gave the speech (in which he threw his Whitey Grandmother under the bus) because it was politically neccessary. This turd-bama wouldn’t be here if America knew of Wright’s poisonous rants in October 2007.
Oh, and he REFUSES to leave that toxic church. If this is really how most black pastors preach from the pulpit, America is in for a long and rough ride.
omnipotent on March 20, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Not these ones in Pennsylvania
omnipotent on March 20, 2008 at 11:49 AM
They don’t have the guts. And they can’t handle the truth. If HRC wins big in PA, IN, and KY going into NC it will be a perfect meltdown for the Dems. If HRC wins in NC then the Dems are doomed. They can’t get out of bed with BHO. It’s too late. The deed is done.
If the party elites drop BHO there will be fist-fights and riots in Denver, sending the whole Dem ticket into the Sewer of Hope, as Dem voters stay home or go Republican out of horror at the botched convention. If they stick with BHO the Dems lose the presidency but probably keep the Congress. The party elites are boxed in and will make the best of a bad hand by sticking with BHO, even though they know he’ll lose.
After November BHO and HRC are finished as presidential candidates: BHO because he lost badly and HRC because she destroyed the party out of ambition.
Unless McCain has health problems or Iraq dives into the crapper, he wins.
Vote Sauron 08 on March 20, 2008 at 11:50 AM
No one said it disqualifies him. But what exactly are you saying here? What does your statement say about someone who doesn’t vote for him because he associates himself with anti-american and racist people?
Darksean on March 20, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Like I said since day one when this story first broke, Obama is finished.
His only chance of becoming POTUS now is first to become Hillery’s little boot licking VP for eight years.
He’ll do it, believe me, his pride is as shallow as his suit is empty.
leanright on March 20, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Obama failed to disavow Wright, the man.
That’s the main fact.
Wright is a race-baiting, conspiratorially-deranged, foul-mouthed loon.
Obama likes him.
Vote wisely.
profitsbeard on March 20, 2008 at 11:53 AM
Your argument would make some sense if he had done this on his own as part of a platform, prior to being forced into the arena. I heard no specifics in the speech regarding a plan, but assuming generational change is part of his plan, allowing his kids access to Wright’s venom doesn’t square well with that concept.
Perhaps you have a point if they are unable to kick the habit.
a capella on March 20, 2008 at 11:54 AM
This would be good news if there was somobody better than him running for president this year. Why cant we have a nomination do-over?
hanzblinx on March 20, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Whoever wins the nomination will control the party apparatus for the next 4 years, even if they lose the general. Think about the chaos if Obama wins and starts to take over the Clinton machine with his picks.
a capella on March 20, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Maybe.
But we’re about the same distance from the end of the primary process now as we are from the beginning. And what an eternity ago does Iowa seem?
If Hillary runs the table of the remaining primaries then what she’ll have is most likely the popular vote lead, and an obviously sinking and unelectable opponent.
And two months worth of that narrative. If that’s the case, the rational for riots is gone. Anyone taking to the streets of Denver will be dooming leftism for a generation. Now maybe they will anyway, but personally I don’t think even they are that dumb.
If Iraq continues to go well and if the economy stays reasonably afloat, then McCain will probably beat Hillary anyway.
But if Iraq continues to go well and the economy goes south, then what you have is McCain’s issue marginalized and a bunch of people pining for a return to the nineties.
Want to get the cold sweats? Think about an overextended and teetering economy treated to a nice strong dose of taxes and regulation and statism.
Can you say FDR? Can you say HRC?
I ain’t saying it will happen.
But I am saying it can.
Typhoon on March 20, 2008 at 12:04 PM
Best for the Democrats would be either a massive Obama comeback or a massive Obama collapse. Whether as a result of new drama or the steady wearing down of his coalition to its remnant hard core, or both – the worse he looks in the polls and does in the late primaries, the easier it would become for the Superdupes to overrule any lead in pledged delegates or popular votes. At some point, the pressure would even build on Obama, identified as unelectable at least this time around, to withdraw for the sake of the party and its agenda, with his reputation and immense potential magnified or at least intact.
CK MacLeod on March 20, 2008 at 12:08 PM
You mean like Kerry did?
Typhoon on March 20, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Yeah, but that was before The Speech. Since giving The Speech, B.O. is being looked upon by every news outlet (with the exception of the wise folk at Fox News) as being the 2nd Coming of Martin Luther King. So expect whatever damage was done by the Wright affair to quietly dissappate and for B.O’s numbers to start rising past Shillary’s again shortly. Besides, she has her own can of worms to deal with with those released documents of hers right now, and even as we speak, the same news outlets (including the wise folk at Fix News) are going over those papers with a fine toothed comb. Expect the dirt to start flying in her direction shortly.
pilamaye on March 20, 2008 at 12:12 PM
BTW, Typhoon – I’ve considered something like your scenario a danger for many months. It was a major reason I argued as strongly as I could against some of the “true conservatives” whose attacks on McCain struck me as excessive and overwrought. All you need to complete your HRC = FDR scenario is the firming up of a grand democratic coalition on the bedrock of new immigrant, health care, and environmentalist clienteles.
CK MacLeod on March 20, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Yes, a dignified withdrawal placates his groupies to some extent and if he makes a plea for them to throw their support to Hillary, he can make an emotional exit and live to fight another day. but, the Clinton machine will still own the Dem working parts, plus they are as aware as we, that Bobby Jindal is lurking in the weed patch.
a capella on March 20, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Possibilities:
1)The Super delegates will use this as an opportunity to vote hillary.
2) They will stick with Obama
3) They will swing way over and give them all to McCain
Heheheee!
kcd on March 20, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Clinton can’t close the gap.
The superdelagates will pick Obama.
The party can’t afford not to.
cntrlfrk on March 20, 2008 at 12:21 PM
I think an Obama withdrawal is a worst case senario for us Republicans. I want to see a big fight at the convention.
Mojave Mark on March 20, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Obama claims he wanted this campaign to not be about race but due to the folks with whom he decided to associate and financially support he is going to deepen the race rift in the Democrat Party and the Country. He is not uniter, he is an untier.
EJDolbow on March 20, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Kerry was an aberrational doofus and they all knew it. They aren’t going to trust someone with no core base, other than Code Pinko types, with the keys to the candy store.
a capella on March 20, 2008 at 12:21 PM
Wright and Obama = Sanford And Son
Look out Elizabeth! This is the big one!
saved on March 20, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Who needs personal responsibility when you can graze with the herd?
Limerick on March 20, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Would that it were true. But I’m afraid it’s not. Whatever the “elites” think, Obama missed the mark with “The Speech.”
His mark was working-class whites or Reagan Democrats or whatever you want to call them. But whatever, however, in the end “The Speech” is going to do more harm with them than good.
Not to mention Hispanics. It hasn’t been reported much, but I just guarnatee you that speech went over with Hispanics like a lead
shi… balloon.Now if you add Hispanics and working-class whites to Obama’s core of blacks and latte-lib’rals, you’ve got yourself a Reagan-sized coalition.
You take them away, and you’ve got The Second Coming of McGovern.
Yeah. Not to mention women. I’ve got this gut feeling that if she prevails and is the nominee, a whole lot of previously non-political women might turn out for her, seeing her as a chamion and a fighter in a way they might not have if she’d cruised to a coronation as originally planned.
I’ll never be more glad in my life to eat a big ol’ helping of crow and be wrong, but I’m really concerned that conservatives propping her up when we should have finished her off just might be the dumbest political move of my lifetime.
Typhoon on March 20, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Is it that you really think it’s the worst case senario for Republicans or do you just want to see a big fight at the convention? : )
I think Obama pulling out would be great for McCain. Obamas supporters wont vote for Hillary so they will either vote McCain to keep her out or not vote at all. I think it benefits McCain either way.
kcd on March 20, 2008 at 12:30 PM
How many more months of this?
Seven Percent Solution on March 20, 2008 at 12:31 PM
HOW TRUE, but stay tuned. Once McCain grants Amnesty, millions more gullable democratic dupes will come online and things will spiral downhill beyond repair.
Turd world here we come !
saiga on March 20, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Careful, Sandy…eyes on the ball my friend. Obama…and also Hillary…arent finished until the Mav stands at the steps of the Capitol and puts his hand on the bible next January.
Mike D. on March 20, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Obama is not tied to the black grievance industry? Then why does Obama support affirmative action and racial preference programs? He admits that these types of programs cause racial resentment — yet he wants more of them. How exactly will that “unite” us all?
AZCoyote on March 20, 2008 at 12:45 PM
I’m telling you guys, get used to thinking and saying “President McCain”!
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The Civil War in the Democratic Party will continue all the way to their convention in August. Hussein Obama & Co. and Rodham Clinton & Co. will be so busy knifing each other in this now very close Democratic race, they’ll have no time to even think or talk about McCain. (We can certainly count on the Clintons to exert their maximum sliminess and dirty tricks. Obama’s no slouch at that either, being a Chicago Democratic Machine alumnus.)
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This Democratic Civil War will, hopefully, inflict deep wounds and create great chasms in the Party. This can not only help McCain in the November election, it may very well also help the Republicans overall, translating into some gained House and Senate seats for the Republicans.
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Remember, the Dems only control the Senate by ONE seat! 5oDems-49Reps-1 Independent who caucuses with the Dems. If McCain wins, the new Republican Vice President is also President of the Senate (Of course, he only votes when there’s a tie vote) and the Republicans gain just one seat, the Republicans regain control of the Senate. And if the Republicans gain two or more, so much the better!
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In either scenario, that would mean President McCain AND a Republican-majority Senate!
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Meanwhile, the Bush Administration is doing everything possible to help boost John McCain. McCain is now on a 4 nation trip: Iraq, Israel, France and the UK. McCain was treated like a conquering hero in Jerusalem yesterday, meeting with both the Israeli President and the PM, going to the Western Wall and visiting Yad Vashem, the Holocaust Museum. There are a number of excellent articles in the Jerusalem Post about his visit. Here’s one from the interview McCain gave to the Post:
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1205420721834&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
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So, McCain and his Republican team get to campaign, network and raise money. They can continue to build up his image in the public eye, unimpeded up to August (the Dem convention) by the Democrats, who are busy fighting their Civil War.
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May this Democratic Party fratricide continue! May the Democratic nomination winner find winning the nomination a Pyrrhic victory!
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“President McCain…” “President McCain…” “President McCain…” “President McCain…” :-)
DavePa on March 20, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Once could be argued an error in judgement (not that I believe it was… but it could be argued as such). Twice though… it becomes a pattern.
Obama’s done.
crazy_legs on March 20, 2008 at 1:03 PM
ADDENDUM TO: I’m telling you guys, get used to thinking and saying “President McCain”!
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Additionally, we should pay no attention to the Talking Heads and their minimizing McCain and talking up Hussein Obama or Rodham Clinton! Mostly, they are pompous, biased leftist pseudo-journalists, working for biased leftist networks and newspapers. They’re the North American MSM equivalent of Baghdad Bob. Their “predictions” are leftist wishful thinking which they’re trying to subliminally transplant into viewers by repetition. They’ll still be saying “It’s too close to call!” when they’re popping the Champagne corks at McCain for President Headquarters on November 11th!
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As I see it: We’ve got two major political parties. The Democratic Party has been captured by the far left, various sub-groups of which are it’s core. The Republican Party is composed (historically always has been) between core conservatives, i.e. Goldwaterites and Reaganauts, and moderate conservatives, who are really mildly conservative centrists.
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Neither of those parties’ core groups are a majority of the national electorate. (Which in the big picture is probably healthier). So, both parties must appeal to the moderate centrist majority of Americans to win elections. The moderate centrist Main Street America is where elections are won or lost.
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On Main Street America, the majority white people WOULD be willing to vote for a candidate who happens to be black, if he or she isn’t far left, and trying hard to cover that fact. THAT is the case with Hussein Obama. That same criteria would apply to a qualified woman, an American Maggie Thatcher or Golda Meier. That criteria eliminates Hillary Clinton as she has far too much corruption and sleaze baggage from the Clinton Administration years PLUS she is also far left, and trying hard to cover that fact.
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This white majority WOULD vote for President for someone like, for example, Colin Powell, Condi Rice, Congressman JC Watts, Clarence Thomas. Any of these very fine people would be seen by a majority of white Americans as Presidential-caliber with a strong leadership history and personal values that reflect Main Street America. AND I am personally very, very proud of that fact, as should we all be. It shows how far America has come!
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Despite the reverse-racist rantings and panderings of Hussein Obama, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, et. al., the majority of America is truly a post-racism society. In one of Hussein Obama’s few moments of honesty, he acknowledged that only in America could he have risen to the point of being a very serious Presidential contender.
DavePa on March 20, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Bo’s halo burnt out. I hope it wasn’t a CFL, he might have to go to the woodshed with Al the Gorebot. I don’t wish that on anyone.
Christine on March 20, 2008 at 1:38 PM
Obama is sinking fast, and he backed the wrong horse in his speech–he should have thrown Wright under the bus, instead of his grandmother. As a son of a white mother and a black father, he could have bridged the racial gap, but he chose to own, rather than disown, his radical preacher. Probably a lot of people have noted that Obama had said earlier that he had not heard Wright’s incendiary sermons, then in his speech he admitted he had. Obama was caught in another lie, after his lie about NAFTA, and another lie about how much money he got from Rezko.
Obama might still lead in pledged delegates (most of the lead came from low-turnout caucuses) but he is looking increasingly unelectable in polls against McCain, and this is only two days after his speech. If this trend continues through the PA primary, and Hillary manages to break even in NC and win big in IN, the super-delegates will probably see the handwriting on the wall–either nominate Obama and watch a McCain landslide, or nominate Hillary and have a fighting chance.
The question then becomes, do they nominate Hillary in June (after the last primary) and give her a five-month general-election campaign, or stage a food-fight in Denver, where the winner has gets a two-month general-election campaign with part of the Democrat base PO’d?
One thing is clear. Obama may still get the Dem nomination, but he will not be President in 2009.
Amazing how McCain’s poll numbers are rising, while he’s campaigning…in Iraq!
Steve Z on March 20, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Second look at wanted to face Obama rather than Hilary?
Tzetzes on March 20, 2008 at 1:42 PM
*wanting
Tzetzes on March 20, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Obama Lied. Granny Cried.
faraway on March 20, 2008 at 1:57 PM
My crystal ball sez: There is no Good Outcome – Prepare for the Storm.
My crystal ball is never wrong
franksalterego on March 20, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Of course the right is going to get the blame for his downfall because politicians never take responsibility for their own actions or inaction.
shick on March 20, 2008 at 4:03 PM
Obama’s sppech failed to even try, and your characterization , is dishonest IMHO.
Obama did nothing to help the victim mentality, that that Rev. was pushing, Obama was a part of the problem, and still is.
Chakra Hammer on March 21, 2008 at 12:48 AM
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