Missile defense settlement with Putin?

Vladimir Putin issued an unexpectedly sunny statement about the prospects for US-Russian relations Monday night after receiving an extensive communiqué from George Bush. He told Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates that he accepted Bush’s framework for upcoming negotiations on a range of issues, including missile defense, which has been a source of diplomatic tension between the two countries and Europe:

The Bush administration’s push to expand its missile defense network into central Europe — and Putin’s firm and unrelenting opposition to it — is the most contentious security issue facing the two countries. But there are other issues, including economic and political matters, that the Bush administration would like to see advanced as Putin steps aside to assume a role of uncertain political clout.

The Russians have criticized U.S. missile defense efforts for decades, but their opposition intensified when the Bush administration began negotiating with Poland and the Czech Republic to build missile defense sites on their territory. The Russians argue that it is a potential threat to their own nuclear deterrent.

“I wouldn’t say I’m optimistic on any of this stuff,” Gates told reporters. “The Russians hate the idea of missile defense. We are trying to figure out a way to make them partners in it,” in ways that ease Russian suspicion that the missiles are really intended to be used against them. …

Putin called the Bush letter a “very serious document” and said that he had studied it closely.

“If we can reach agreement on its most important provisions than we will be able to state that our dialogue is proceeding successfully. There are still a lot of outstanding problems that need to be discussed,” Putin said, sitting across a table from Rice and Gates.

The missile defense system acts as more of a public irritation rather than a real challenge to Russia’s nuclear deterrent, at least for the next few decades. It isn’t designed to block a massive load of missiles. Rather, it’s designed to knock down a few at a time, which makes it useless against Russian capabilities, unless the Russian missile systems have degraded far faster than anyone anticipated.

Instead, it intends to defend Europe against a smaller threat — nations that have only a small-scale launch potential. That would include both Iran and North Korea, although the latter would not likely target Europe if it decided to attack anywhere. The Iranians have at least one missile, the Shahab-3, with a range between 1200 and 1800 miles, sufficient to reach eastern Europe as well as Israel. They are also working on the Shahab-4, which they claim will only be used for commercial space projects, but will have a longer range than the Shahab-3 if used in military applications.

They only had twenty launchers deployed for the Shahab-3 as of March 2006. The US missile defense, if successful, could negate that offensive capability and keep the Iranians from provoking a regional war. The mutually-assured destruction scenario simply doesn’t apply to non-rational actors such as the mullahs in Tehran, and the region needs a defense against the Iranian ballistic capability.

Bush’s letter to Putin may have outlined the basis for cooperation and inclusion of the Russians in the defense umbrella. That was Ronald Reagan’s original intent when he proposed the missile defense system, as well as checkmating the Soviets in the arms race. The Iranians are much more dangerous than the Russians, and the missile defense system could provide an opening for greater cooperation between Moscow, Washington, and the rest of NATO in defending against them. Hopefully, Bush has made Putin understand the stakes and our position in this latest diplomatic effort.

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