Glorious poll data of the day!
posted at 2:34 pm on March 18, 2008 by Allahpundit
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
Not glorious enough? Chew on this: According to the article, 28% of her own supporters are in the majority for that first question.
Is this really good news? Team Messiah must be faxing it to every uncommitted superdelegate on their list and maybe a few committed ones, per that 28% number. This is why I keep saying it’s over, contra Hot Air majority opinion: They won’t have the balls to vote against a guy who’s ahead by every metric (except for big battleground states) and who’s staked himself out today as the avatar of racial healing, so the big convention battle we’re praying for isn’t likely to be much of a battle. Add the fact that she just crapped the bed in Florida, where she’ll probably end up with 19 delegates and a few hundred thousand (dubious) extra votes in the popular vote contest, and she’s desperate. Assuming she wins big in Pennsylvania, as expected, the bellwethers will be Indiana and North Carolina on May 6. If she can’t surprise him in both states I say she’s done, done, done. Anyone disagree?
Update: Silky couldn’t deliver North Carolina for Kerry. Can he deliver it for Hillary?
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages:
She might be able to win Indiana, but I think North Carolina is Messiah Country.
Slublog on March 18, 2008 at 2:40 PM
I can not stand hc, but bho scares the day lights out of me as president.
L
letget on March 18, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Again its not about Hillary. The dems can chose either one it wont make a difference. The dems are divided and will be alot of fingerpointing after this.
Another question is haillry not playing for 08 now but rather 2012 ? If Obama goes down in a big blast of defeat can she come back 4 years later and say “Hey I fought the good fight but no one wanted to listen” ?
Can she in 4 years heal the rift that exists now ?
William Amos on March 18, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Ditto that. As far as Hillary, IMO, like I said before, they will have to drag Hillary out of the convention, kicking and screaming, as the janitors are sweeping up….
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 2:42 PM
Same here. The biggest benefit to knocking Obama out is that the number of voters would drop dramatically, making the playing field more level for McCain.
Connie on March 18, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Either way it’ll be tougher than most Democrats ever predicted. If Hillary wins, it’s more likely-than-not that she’ll lose the general. If Barack wins, they have to deal with him coming apart like a cheap suit, the Rezko trial only just beginning, the continuing saga of Rev. Windbag, the perception he’s Muslim, etc..
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 2:44 PM
You think she looks haggard now, wait till 2012 and see a woman who has spent that four years being even more angry and bitter than she is right now.
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 2:44 PM
I still say, never underestimate the sliminess of a Clinton!
melachiro on March 18, 2008 at 2:44 PM
so should NC voters still crossover and vote Hillary? Is Obama electable now, I don’t see it anymore….
its a harder sell on NC repubs to crossover because we have a big Gov. primary on repub. side.
jp on March 18, 2008 at 2:46 PM
I still say, the way Hillary and Obama’s people feel about each other will work to McCain’s benefit come November. Especially the moderates and independants.
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 2:46 PM
I disagree. She still has an ace up her sleeve. Despite the fact that ol’ Billy Jeff Blythe has stepped in bags of excrement aplenty on the campaign trail, he is still popular with democrats. And he has been looking a little…frail, lately.
RushBaby on March 18, 2008 at 2:47 PM
I’m just hoping for lots of chaos for the Democrats, that’s all I want.
doubleplusundead on March 18, 2008 at 2:47 PM
Hillary is done. The dems will in time forgive Obama for everything, even praise him for everything, good or bad.
They are too far in love to go against him at any time remaining in the primary process. Although I would love to be wrong on this.
Grafted on March 18, 2008 at 2:48 PM
78% would vote for her anyway? That is HUGE! Only 22% at this time are angry enough to not vote or vote for McCain. We all know that after the anger subsides in the months to come they’ll all fall into place. This is absolutely fantastic news for Clinton! I bet she’s smiling from ear to ear
Capitalist Infidel on March 18, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Do you suppose shes using Riacin or plain ol’ RAT poision?
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 2:48 PM
kcd
If I was married to that gal, I would be taking Riacin or rat poison.
L
letget on March 18, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Hahahaaa!
RushBaby on March 18, 2008 at 2:51 PM
He probably isn’t, but it’s still about making their process as long and blood letting as possible. If Hillary wins all these late states, imagine the fun it’d be at the convention.
You’d get lots of hillary supporters not wanting to vote for Obama and vice versa. Either way, democrats have really screwed themselves in november.
lorien1973 on March 18, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Hell, Silky couldn’t deliver North Carolina for Silky.
BacaDog on March 18, 2008 at 2:57 PM
Glorious poll data
senilesenior moment of the day!AMMAN, Jordan — Sen. John McCain, traveling in the Middle East to promote his foreign policy expertise, misidentified in remarks Tuesday which broad category of Iraqi extremists are allegedly receiving support from Iran.
He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda. In fact, officials have said they believe Iran is helping Shiite extremists in Iraq.
Speaking to reporters in Amman, the Jordanian capital, McCain said he and two Senate colleagues traveling with him continue to be concerned about Iranian operatives “taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back.”
Pressed to elaborate, McCain said it was “common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that’s well known. And it’s unfortunate.” A few moments later, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, standing just behind McCain, stepped forward and whispered in the presidential candidate’s ear. McCain then said: “I’m sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda.” [Good thing he had Joe there.]
The mistake threatened to undermine McCain’s argument that his decades of foreign policy experience make him the natural choice to lead a country at war with terrorists. In recent days, McCain has repeatedly said his intimate knowledge of foreign policy make him the best equipped to answer a phone ringing in the White House late at night.
- Cameron W. Barr
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 2:58 PM
Rush’s Operation Chaos is helping vet the dem’s, thank goodness for that since the GOP sure won’t do it, but all dem’s will unite for the general. Op Chaos hopefully makes a big enough impression on ind’s for Mac to carry the day.
JustTruth101 on March 18, 2008 at 3:00 PM
The mistake threatened to undermine McCain’s argument that his decades of foreign policy experience make him the natural choice to lead a country at war with terrorists. In recent days, McCain has repeatedly said his intimate knowledge of foreign policy make him the best equipped to answer a phone ringing in the White House late at night [Well maybe if Joe is doing a sleep over anyway! McCain's new motto: Joe, never leave home without him!].
- Cameron W. Barr
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Absolutely. Any way that Barry limps across the finish line is good enough for me.
The problem with this poll is that it assumes today’s dynamic. While the likes of Andy and Chrissy and Olby will no doubt wet themselves over Obama’s speech today, that doesn’t mean he can recreate Obamamania or that all the Reagan Democrat types in Pennsylvania are going to forgive him for Rev. Jerry or for slamming them in that same speech.
So…after he takes a savage beating in Pennsylvania, and if Silky comes out for Hillary and campaigns with her in North Carolina, if she wins there, then he starts looking like very damaged goods.
And I think there’s a lurking dynamic here. Little by little her negatives are dropping and her positives are rising. If “hard-working American families” reject him in the final reel and embrace her; if Slick Willie stays on the sidelines with his mouth and zipper closed, then she becomes a fighter, the ultimate comeback kid. I thunk there comes a point when legions of women could see it as their race and her as their horse.
Maybe blacks will stay away, or maybe she can put him on the ticket and get the best of both worlds. Or maybe she won’t even have to and can take Strickland.
I’m getting of a mind that every day this is more and more McCain’s election to lose, regardless. But I’d still rather see him face Barry than her; I still think he’s got a near mortal wound, and she is far from out of it.
Typhoon on March 18, 2008 at 3:02 PM
He made a mistake. That threatens to undermine his argument? What, is Obama going to take over the experience angle from him?
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:03 PM
I probably shouldn’t post this but I’ve been saying for years that it will be easier for her to win as “widow of BJC” than as “wife” of.
Brat on March 18, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Silky couldnt win either America! You know, I’m surprised that Silky did’nt “channel” a dead psycic to find out how his bid was going to go before he even ran.
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 3:04 PM
And where was the media assault when Obama charged that Canada has a President?
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:05 PM
If things stay the way they are now with McCain coming out on top nationally over both HRC and BHO in head to head, I still see the potential for the DemocRATS to stage the convention as a unifying event under the Hillary/Obama joint ticket.
.
Listen, party is thicker than blood and if they both see that McCain is beating them by a fair enough margin, 5% is all it would take, then I see the hatchets being burried. The week before the convention that HRC and BHO are going to join to form a unification ticket and together announce: “We are the hope and change that we are looking for! Yes we can! Yes we can!”
.
Running and loosing a presidential race is a politcal death sentence. If they both loose, they are done, never to return to this scene again. I think in the end they are both too smart to pass this up. this duel ticket beats McCain. I hate to say it; I don’t want it; but it would be the correct thing for them to do baring a McCain meltdown before the Democratic convention.
Simonsez on March 18, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Nags and cackles, leaves no trace.
ronsfi on March 18, 2008 at 3:07 PM
The same place the media’s head has always been, up it’s own arse!
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Yup he made a mistake. One like that idiot democrat congressmen, what’s his name, that we all made fun of some months ago who didn’t seem to understand the difference between Sunnis and Shiites or know that Al Q was Sunni either.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Al qaeda is a linking of Islamic backers of all ilks. There are Indonesia and Tajik and even Kosovoians who back Al Qaeda. Its an islamic theology that transends nation and sect.
Iran has given some safe haven to Osama’s sons. While they are shiia there is no reason to doubt that while they dont fully back Al Qaeda that they still dont give them some refuge and aid.
William Amos on March 18, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Hillary has been fighting for the VP slot. If course, she can’t get the nomination. Who thought she could?
freevillage on March 18, 2008 at 3:09 PM
A lot of the focus is on what will happen if Hillary wins unfairly. Blacks seem to be annoyed with her anyway, so presumably they’d be likely to sit out if she beats Obama with a low blow.
Frankly, I think an Obama win might be dirtier. Hillary will never take second place gracefully. I don’t know what she’ll do, but I’m positive that she will do everything at her disposal to win. She will probably polarize the party by the time she’s done.
PurpleWombats on March 18, 2008 at 3:11 PM
You don’t REALLY think that Hillary “I’ve been using those black folk for years” Clinton, is going to take a VP spot under a black man do you!!??
kcd on March 18, 2008 at 3:12 PM
It’s too early for HRC to bow out. I suspect there probably another skeleton or two in The Obamassiah’s closet. The Clintons will find them and use them to further weaken BHO.
Neither of them can win outright on the basis of delegates, it has to go to the super-duper delegates, many of whom owe the Clintons (or are being blackmailed by them)
rbj on March 18, 2008 at 3:12 PM
There’s a difference between a gaffe/mistake, and honestly not understanding the difference between Sunnies and Shiites. Obama most likely knows Canada has a Prime Minister — not a President. That was a mistake, too.
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:13 PM
December 13, 2006
Democratic congressman Silvestre Reyes continues to come under fire after failing a quiz of basic questions about the terrorist groups al-Qaeda and Hezbollah. In an interview with Congressional Quarterly’s Jeff Stein, Reyes – who incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tapped to head the House Intelligence Committee – was unable to answer pointed questions about the terrorists’ ideology.
Call me crazy, but shouldn’t the chairman of a powerful government committee devoted to intelligence on our enemies be an expert on such matters? Especially more than five years after 9/11. Apparently Reyes has never heard the phrase, “Know your enemy.” Here’s the jaw-dropping details, courtesy of Stein:
The dialogue went like this:
Al Qaeda is what, I asked, Sunni or Shia?
“Al Qaeda, they have both,” Reyes said. “You’re talking about predominately?”
“Sure,” I said, not knowing what else to say.
“Predominantly – probably Shiite,” he ventured.
He couldn’t have been more wrong.
Al Qaeda is profoundly Sunni. If a Shiite showed up at an al Qaeda club house, they’d slice off his head and use it for a soccer ball.
That’s because the extremist Sunnis who make up al Qaeda consider all Shiites to be heretics.
Has anyone seen John McCain and Silvestre Reyes at the same time?
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:17 PM
Especially if her back-alley types covertly help undermine Obama to the benefit of McCain? Don’t put it past her; if you think she looks haggard now and worried about 4 years from now, think about how much she hates the thought of waiting 8 years to try again.
michaelo on March 18, 2008 at 3:18 PM
So what was Obama’s excuse for saying 10,000 people died in a tornado when it was 8?
Chuck Schick on March 18, 2008 at 3:19 PM
“He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda. In fact, officials have said they believe Iran is helping Shiite extremists in Iraq.”
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Why do you ask me? I’m not supporting Obama.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:21 PM
Ditto Allahpundit.
I still think she gets it.
But lets assume she does not…..
Will there be less fallout if he wins?
Will there be less or more enthusiasm if he is the eventual candidate?
Would HRC be more quickly forgotten?
Will the party more quickly coalesce around BHO?
Would BHO be more likely of the two to motivate the vote?
IMO if he gets it, and if she is not on the ticket, then I think he will be formidable. The minster issue is a petty thing to democrats, his target audience. He could care less about astute republicans that actually read and think and hold people accountable for what they say and believe. On balance, to liberals and independents, his speech will be a hallmark. Reaganesque in a perverse way, and purely on delivery and inspirational terms. As far as content, it was nonsense, but that requires insight.
Starlink on March 18, 2008 at 3:22 PM
You’ve never repeated an incorrect word several times because you’re only half thinking about it at the moment? I have, and I’ve seen others do it. And I’m not in a foreign Middle Eastern country where many would like to kill me.
BUT…
He should’ve gotten it right, and I’m not really arguing otherwise. He’s running for President, after all. It’s just that the WaPo article treats it as if a mistake takes away his decades of experience on foreign policy.
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Or how about when Obama suggested we invade our nuclear-armed ally Pakistan?
AZCoyote on March 18, 2008 at 3:25 PM
I know!
Let’s just agree that Obama doesn’t know much about tornados and Juan McCain doesn’t know much about Iran and Al Q.
Both cases seem very clear.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:26 PM
McCain Democrats are going to be a tsunami.
Hening on March 18, 2008 at 3:27 PM
IIRC, wasn’t he trying to use it against Bush and Iraq, saying there wasn’t enough help because of the war? And that’s when he massively exaggerated the death toll?
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:28 PM
it wasn’t just an incorrect word, it was a whole damn statement and several times.
And no, I have never done that and if I ever do don’t support me for CIC, please don’t.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Here’s something else to consider: What I haven’t heard or read anywhere today is how that speech of Obama’s was liable to play with Hispanics.
My guess: Abysmally. Funny how the little race-huckster Barry didn’t have a whole lot of time for the other people of color. And while it may be tough for Hillary to win without blacks, she does have the argument that she will pull in lots of women who usually don’t vote.
Blacks, on the other hand, typically do turn out in large numbers for the Dems. But Barry ain’t gonna win without Hispanics. And he’s not going to get them.
Hillary’s actually got a pretty strong case to make to the super-delegates. She’s carried all the big states; she can nab the Hispanic vote. She can offer the VP slot to Barry and if he turns it down then it’s his churlishness that’s standing in the way of “unity.”
More I think of it, yeah…I don’t think Barry even gets the nomination.
Typhoon on March 18, 2008 at 3:29 PM
Oh, I would, of course, absolutely love to be wrong.
Typhoon on March 18, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Chances are good that she will be truly gone. The superdelegates will opt to save the party and picking the feminist over the black guy will make too much trouble.
I used to the think that we would be better off with Hillary as the nominee but now it looks like Obama is not the giantkiller the MSM had him out to be.
McCain is a depressing candidate for conservatives but I think the blue collar and blue dog dems would roll with him instead of Obama. Some 527 is going to be showing Obama’s pastor over and over again in advertisements and that will be a deal breaker for a lot of moderate dems.
thatcher on March 18, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Heh. You have nothing to worry about, dude. Never planned on it. :-)
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:31 PM
I don’t know. What are you trying to suggest, that McCain and Obama run on the same ticket? The Two Stooges ticket?
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:32 PM
No. My issue isn’t really with what you said. It’s not even really of the criticism of his mistake. It’s that WaPo asserts that the mistake threatens to wipe away his foreign policy experience.
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Pennsylvania: Clinton 56, Obama 30 !
She can’t possibly win delegate wise, but Al Burack will have to win more supers than he has now, and who knows how many of Hillary’s supers are toed.
Aristotle on March 18, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Well you could do worse, you nativist Gringo who is too lazy and innept to pick lettuce for even $50 an hour.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:35 PM
One more
senile momentgaffe/mistake like that and it will.MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:37 PM
I’d have to respectfully disagree.
Anyway, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. There’s a few other things I have to get done and I want to leave this old thread behind.
amerpundit on March 18, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Oh please. I think taking one use of the word Al Qaeda instead of extremists when talking about terrorists and extrapolating it to total ignorance of a subject is a bit much.
Like saying Obama knows nothing about math because he got the number of dead off by a factor of 1000.
These people do nothing but talk for a year straight- they’re going to stumble.
Take a breath. Your hatred of McCain is well noted.
Chuck Schick on March 18, 2008 at 3:48 PM
Yet again, “He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda.”
Take a breath. Your calling people whom you disagree with haters is well noted.
MB4 on March 18, 2008 at 3:54 PM
I think she is not done. Not based solely on primary results. It is a recipe of primary results and Wright fallout, and news coverage.
1. Will the newscycle carry Black pastors calling Wright a crackpot and not emblematic of the Black community? If so point for Hillary.
2. Do Jesse and Al continue to have the confidence to make threats? It better be Obama or else type rhetoric? If they shut up point for Hillary.
3. Does Obama lose Pennsylvania Ohio style? If so superdelegates know he does not stand a chance in the general. Point for Hillary.
4. Do more Wright comments hit the newscycle? If so point for Hillary.
I list all these points knowing that currently it comes down to: Is it better to nominate Hillary and lose the election and the Black vote, or nominate Obama and just lose the election? MAJOR point for Obama (but don’t say it is about race!) But if the 4 things I listed come to pass Democrats can more safely nominate Hillary.
That is what Obama’s speech was meant to derail. He can get the media except FOX off his back but can he remain the crossover/racial healer in PA? Will Rush continue to call for Republican crossover for Hillary? So many unknowns…
For conservatives sake Obamamania is gone. That was the real fear wasn’t it? That he would be swept into the nomination and he would catch fire among the general electorate and win a key swing states? That scenario is gone. My friends that IM about how they are scared for Obama’s safety, are praying for him, but aren’t groupies mind you just dissatified with Clinton, now have other things to talk about. New shoes, where should they vacation this summer? Etc. It seems people know he’s through.
Theworldisnotenough on March 18, 2008 at 3:57 PM
I think most are missing the fact that 90% of blacks agree with Wright, and 50% of Liberals also agree with him. Maybe 10% find what Wright says as being racist.
WoosterOh on March 18, 2008 at 3:57 PM
If Hillary! or her surrogates can keep the J-Wright issue alive, she could pull a surprise in Indiana. Even some libs find “God Damn America” offensive. Shocking, I know.
And of course there’s Operation Chaos.
Iblis on March 18, 2008 at 4:08 PM
I still predict that the democratic party will not allow BO to run, they are too racist. BO caught them by surprise, watch the democrats.
This is why I also still question how these cd’s made it to the media? Who alerted the media? Did the media get the cd’s direct from the church??
allrsn on March 18, 2008 at 4:26 PM
If you believe in polls at this point in the contest, you are probably smoking something. That said, if Hillary is given the nomination even though Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and the popular vote, the percent voting for her in November will begin to go into free fall and she will lose to McCain in a landslide. I think that many on this board are disregarding the degree to which Democrats and Independents are wed to validating the voice of the voters because of recent election history. Although many of the super delegates may question Obama’s electability, they will be loath to go against the voters and risk alienating a generation of blacks and new voters, particularly if they perceive that both candidates are vulnerable to defeat in November.
Also, regarding an Obama/Clinton dream ticket, if Obama is robbed of the nomination, his likely move is to sit this Presidential election cycle out. He is young, he can afford to wait, and his message of reshaping Washington politics would be damaged by tying himself to Clinton. If the nomination goes to Obama, I think that he would be loath to put an old establishment candidate like Clinton on his ticket. He has better potential VP candidates to choose from that align better with his central campaign theme and that have fewer overall negatives with the American electorate. For these reasons, I just don’t think that the dream ticket is a remote possibility.
NuclearPhysicist on March 18, 2008 at 5:02 PM
The book written about this presidential election is going to be engrossing reading.
Or books, more like, written from every conceivable angle.
Bob's Kid on March 18, 2008 at 6:22 PM
People just don’t want to accept the obvious. Obama is toast at this point. A pretty speech doesn’t solve the preacher problem. If he still gets the nomination he will lose to McCain. If he doesn’t all hell breaks loose at the convention. It looks like the Dems have backed themselves into a (no escape) corner on this one.
duff65 on March 18, 2008 at 6:53 PM
This is why it is time for crossovers to switch to Obama. Hillary’s supporters are twice as likely to not support the dem in the general if she loses, than his supporters.
Think_b4_speaking on March 18, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Comment pages: