Rasmussen: Obama loses five “favorable” points in four days; Update: Hillary 47, Obama 45, says Gallup

posted at 12:53 pm on March 17, 2008 by Allahpundit

It’s my solemn duty as one of “Hillary’s new conservative friends” to relay these numbers with a salacious mmmm yeah:

Most voters, 56%, said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama. That figure includes 44% of Democrats. Just 11% of voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of Wright’s comments.

However, among African-Americans, 29% said Wright’s comments made them more likely to support Obama. Just 18% said the opposite while 50% said Wright’s comments would have no impact…

Last Thursday, 52% of voters nationwide had a favorable opinion of Obama. That figure has fallen to 47% on Monday (see recent daily results).

Does this thing have legs? If you believe Melanie Morgan, Bob Beckel thinks it’s game over. I think he’s nuts. We’re a month out from the next primary, one in which Obama already trails badly so he has an excuse for a landslide loss already built in. Thanks to Ferraro and Billy Jeff’s fat mouth, Hillary can’t push this the way she otherwise might lest she be accused again of racial demagoguery, so she’s got three options: (a) cross her fingers and hope that the media somehow doesn’t get bored with this story over the next four weeks; (b) trust idiots like this to defend Wright publicly, thereby keeping his message of hope and racial retribution front and center; or (c) find a way to place Obama in the audience of one of Wright’s choicer sermons and leak it to the press around, oh, say, April 19. If none of the above happen, she’ll probably still win by a few extra points in Pennsylvania (thanks to her hundreds of thousands of midwestern crossovers), but Obama’s got a safety net two weeks later in North Carolina, where he’s up eight points. Can he hold onto that lead for six more weeks or is this the beginning of the end? Vote it out, baby!

Update: Needless to say, one of the superdelegates’ biggest fears in handing the nomination to Hillary would be alienating black supporters of the guy who won the most delegates, most states, and (probably) the popular vote and yet somehow still wasn’t good enough for the establishment. Given the racial split noted by Rasmussen, wouldn’t torpedoing him over his Wright baggage actually compound that? He was associated with a black nationalist — and therefore they had to nominate the white woman?

Update: Yesterday? Obama by three. Today? Hillary by two, her first lead nationally since March 6.

Update: Keep it coming!

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This whole Wright issue seems to be giving Hillary the edge she needs to take it home.

Roebuck on March 17, 2008 at 12:57 PM

Does this thing have legs? If you believe Melanie Morgan, Bob Beckel thinks it’s game over. I think he’s nuts.

I agree and you would think Bob Beckel would know better. But he does tend to knee jerk.

bnelson44 on March 17, 2008 at 12:58 PM

my guess….the media jumps all over the economy now and leaves our two democratic lovebirds alone….so that the Obama-Wright fray begins to cool to the point that it goes away.

Sorry, Hil….you’re gonna have to keep digging up scrapple on this guy.

wildweasel on March 17, 2008 at 12:59 PM

I’m not so sure hoping Hillary gets the nod is the best strategy for the GOP. Is she really our best shot in November? Obama’s been coming apart like a cheap suit as of late, the Rezko trial has just begun, he gives McCain the leg-up on experience, he’s been built up so that any bad news can be catastrophic, and the Messiah seems to cause more defections to Nader or Republican/third party than the Hildabeast.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 12:59 PM

I’ve said this many times on these threads over the past couple of weeks. We should have eliminated Hillary when we had the chance. Republicans who crossed over and voted for her made a giant mistake.

Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:00 PM

Obama’s got a safety net two weeks later in North Carolina, where he’s up eight points.

That’s probably the state to watch.

bnelson44 on March 17, 2008 at 1:00 PM

[b]However, among African-Americans, 29% said Wright’s comments made them more likely to support Obama.[/b] Just 18% said the opposite [b]while 50% said Wright’s comments would have no impact…[/b]

So 79% of blacks either outright support or aren’t fazed by Wright’s comments. Why am I not surprised?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:00 PM

I think he’s nuts.

Yah I dont know if he’s nuts, but I certainly think at this point there needs to be more for it to be game over. Him at a sermon spewing this might well be game over, or his wife. Short of that though, it’s just very damaging but not fatal.

Dash on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

Obama is gonna do a slick willy. He is going to wrap himself up into his socialist programs and argue “If you lose me you lose healthcare, you lose peace, you lose affordible housing…ect ect ect…”

He will play defense by using them as a sheild.

The counter argument is to say “America will survive losing Obama. America is greater than Obama’s campaign. We will address our problems and dont have to have Obama’s bagage attached to it. Obama claimed his judgement is what he is running on. As we can see his judgement is faulty.”

If he is allowed to play defense using social programs as his sheild then he can still win.

William Amos on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

So is Rasmussen now Hotair’s official favorite poll? I do believe that I just may have detected something of a pattern here lately.

MB4 on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

O’bama’s entire politcal and personal scaffold is built upon words, not actions. He gets his words from others like Deval Patrick and Rev. Jeremiah Wright and probably some others of which we are not yet aware.

This may very well be much more than a flesh wound, it could force the Glow off the Bama.

EJDolbow on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

Beckel’s right, just the timings off. The wacky leftists who decide the dhimmi candidate are too out of touch to realize that Obama is no longer electable. They will nominate BO and keep insisting there is nothing to see here vis a vis Uncle Jerry.

Once Barry is safely ensconced, the conservative attack dogs will mercilessly play the “Racist Reverend Jerry’s Greatest American Hating Sermons” along side smiling portraits of the Messiah.

This will be a slaughter. Bet the farm.

Alamo on March 17, 2008 at 1:04 PM

So is Rasmussen now Hotair’s official favorite poll? I do believe that I just may have detected something of a pattern here lately.

MB4 on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

Allah linked gallup early in the day saying the same things

William Amos on March 17, 2008 at 1:04 PM

The Democrats are in such a quagmire – if Hillary loses the popular vote and the delegate count, and wins using superdelegates, the result will be ugly and she would be damaged goods right until November. If Obama wins more delegates and the popular vote, he has a better case for the superdelegates, but he would go into the general election with a radioactive story nipping at his heels.

This is the best Democratic primary ever.

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM

I’m not so sure hoping Hillary gets the nod is the best strategy for the GOP. Is she really our best shot in November?

Some of us would actually like to see Hillary win because we realize she’s the lesser of the three evils.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM

The scary thing isn’t Wright’s crazy talk, it the wild applause that follows the crazy talk.

boko fittleworth on March 17, 2008 at 1:06 PM

Some of us would actually like to see Hillary win because we realize she’s the lesser of the three evils.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Be careful what you wish for

Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:06 PM

I’ve said this many times on these threads over the past couple of weeks. We should have eliminated Hillary when we had the chance. Republicans who crossed over and voted for her made a giant mistake. Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:00 PM

The point of “operation chaos” is to keep Clinton and Obama fighting each other not to nominate Hillary. The Dhimmicrats are DOA this November for lots of reasons. Not the least of which is how popular Juan McCain is to them. After ’08 we will be rid of both Clinton and Obama (as presidential hopefuls) forever. They can become like Kerry is now. A frequent guest of dreadfully unpopular TV and radio shows.

Mojave Mark on March 17, 2008 at 1:07 PM

Sorry, Hil….you’re gonna have to keep digging up scrapple on this guy. – wildweasel

MMMMMMMMMMMMMM scraaappllllllllllllle (drool)

Hey, Weasel, are you a Zoomie?

Tony737 on March 17, 2008 at 1:07 PM

Obama’s got a safety net two weeks later in North Carolina, where he’s up eight points. Can he hold onto that lead for six more weeks or is this the beginning of the end?

Well, we had the Duke nonrape, and the more recent murder of a white coed who was a campus leader by two black thugs. North Carolina may be a wee bit touchy about racial matters these days.
Thanks to HA poster funky chicken for pointing this out on another thread.

a capella on March 17, 2008 at 1:08 PM

I doubt that Jeremiah Whites comments will effect the primary significantly. Obamas delusional supporters have been permanently blinded by the light.

southsideironworks on March 17, 2008 at 1:08 PM

I think we will be facing the gender/racial dream team come November

It’s the only way out of this quagmire for the dems

windansea on March 17, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Some of us would actually like to see Hillary win because we realize she’s the lesser of the three evils.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM

You were around/conscious in the 90′s, right?

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:11 PM

Obamas delusional supporters have been permanently blinded by the light.

southsideironworks on March 17, 2008 at 1:08 PM

There are many levels of support for O’bama. His core will stay with him but there is a cerain number of people supporting O’bama for very shallow reasons and J. Dudley Wright may be race baiter too far for many of them.

If it costs him 10% it will cost him the nomination.

EJDolbow on March 17, 2008 at 1:11 PM

I am thinking Obama may not win another state.

I have said many times that after Texas, this became a Death Match and one of the 2 candidates will never win another public office. Looks like Hillary may the the UFC champ.

faraway on March 17, 2008 at 1:12 PM

Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:06 PM

I’ve thought about this quite a bit, thank you. I’d rather see all three of these liberal turds thrown to the lions, but since one will be our next president, it might as well be the liberal Democrat whom almost every conservative despises.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:12 PM

I love the adoption of ‘quagmire’ by the hotair community. Cracks me up.

tlynch001 on March 17, 2008 at 1:12 PM

This whole election thing keeps swinging back and forth like a proverbial pendulum, to the point that it could induce motion sickness. One week Shillary is in the pits, the next it’s B.O., the next week Shill is throwing Geraldine Ferraro under the bus for some stupid comment she made, then B.O. throws his former pastor there for some equally goofy stuff he said. So I guess it’s now Shill’s turn to have new royal SNAFU fall into her lap. Maybe it’s time for Bubba Billy to throw a swing at some loudmouth ranter at a school rally or something.

pilamaye on March 17, 2008 at 1:13 PM

You were around/conscious in the 90’s, right?

I wouldn’t expect a GOP first, country second John McCain supporter like yourself to understand.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:14 PM

Oh yeah!

Connie on March 17, 2008 at 1:15 PM

I wouldn’t expect a GOP first, country second John McCain supporter like yourself to understand.
2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:14 PM

So you believe Hillary would be better for the country?

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:17 PM

The point of “operation chaos” is to keep Clinton and Obama fighting each other not to nominate Hillary. The Dhimmicrats are DOA this November for lots of reasons. Not the least of which is how popular Juan McCain is to them. After ‘08 we will be rid of both Clinton and Obama (as presidential hopefuls) forever. They can become like Kerry is now. A frequent guest of dreadfully unpopular TV and radio shows.

Mojave Mark on March 17, 2008 at 1:07 PM

I understand the strategy behind it. I just think its a bad strategy. I would rather guarantee the elimination of the Clintons for good then have what is going to be a temporary blow up amongst the Democrats. The collective memories of the voters is far too short for the problems facing the Dems to affect the outcome of the general election. I think all we did is give Hillary new life and I think Hillary is far more dangerous then Obama. Obama is young and new. Even if he loses, he’ll be back, with more experience and stronger then ever. If Hillary loses she is unelectable from here on out. The Clintons will be done. We have a shot against an inexperienced Obama now. We have no shot agaist an experienced Obama 8 years from now. If Obama goes on to win the presidency, he will be an empty suit, he will dissapoint and he will accomplish none of what he sets out to do. Hillary is different. She has been in the game for a while. Her goals are the same as Obama’s politically. The only difference being that Hillary will actually accomplish her goals.

If crossing over and voting for Hillary ends up producing the opportunity for her to win this primary election, it was a huge mistake to cross over and give her new life. We had a chance to eliminate the Clintons for good and I can’t believe we didn’t take advantage of it.

Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:22 PM

I wouldn’t expect a GOP first, country second John McCain supporter like yourself to understand.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:14 PM

And by “John McCain supporter” you mean “Guy who furiously opposed McCain until McCain clinched the nomination, and even then had to be convinced to support him”, right?

It’s not a matter of “GOP First”. Obama is the most Liberal Senator in the U.S. Senate. Clinton is one of the most. They both want retreat from Iraq, both want socialized health care, Obama wants to collect taxes to give to the UN, and so much more.

Contrary to your assumption, my concern is “nation first”. That’s why I’m voting for the best of the worst.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:22 PM

Zetterson,

I think most have come to realize that Obama is far more dangerous than Hillary. Obama will self-destruct and will never run again. He will never win another Southern state as it is.

Hillary will now be easier to beat, since she will have crippled her black support.

faraway on March 17, 2008 at 1:25 PM

So you believe Hillary would be better for the country?

When compared to the rest, yes. And if you think I say that with any delight, you’re wrong. I know how dangerous this woman is, but unlike Obama and McCain, so do most other conservatives.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:26 PM

Update: Keep it coming!

Speaking truth to power isn’t going to get a black man elected president of the united states.

bnelson44 on March 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM

And by “John McCain supporter” you mean “Guy who furiously opposed McCain until McCain clinched the nomination, and even then had to be convinced to support him”, right?

You think I’m suppose to be impressed by this? Do you expect me to bow at your feet because, unlike many others, you had to be convinced after some period of time to trash your principles in the name of GOP “victory”?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:30 PM

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:26 PM

Your link on McCain speaks what he might to to conservatism, not the country. So…country first, or conservatism first?

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:31 PM

I think most have come to realize that Obama is far more dangerous than Hillary. Obama will self-destruct and will never run again. He will never win another Southern state as it is.

Hillary will now be easier to beat, since she will have crippled her black support.

faraway on March 17, 2008 at 1:25 PM

I understand what “most” have come to believe. I just disagree with “most”.

Zetterson on March 17, 2008 at 1:31 PM

Your link on McCain speaks what he might to to conservatism, not the country. So…country first, or conservatism first?

Excuse me…that should read “what he might do to conservatism…”

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:32 PM

you had to be convinced after some period of time to trash your principles in the name of GOP “victory”?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:30 PM

For many people it is not about GOP victory anymore because there is no joy in that now that the GOP candidate is John McCain.

But many people do vote AGAINST things rather than for them and many Conservatives who hate McCain will vote in his favor in order to vote against socialism.

EJDolbow on March 17, 2008 at 1:33 PM

She is gonna take the blame for Obamas transformation into the footnote he was destined to be.

BLACK voters will sit at home all but handing the election to MCcain.

TroubledMonkey on March 17, 2008 at 1:35 PM

You think I’m suppose to be impressed by this? Do you expect me to bow at your feet because, unlike many others, you had to be convinced after some period of time to trash your principles in the name of GOP “victory”?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Here’s my ranking of the best of the last remaining few candidates.

1. Mitt Romney
2. John McCain.
3. Hillary Clinton.
4. Barack Obama

It had nothing to do with the fact the top two had “R”s after their name. It had to do with the fact that their stances were the most in line with mine as opposed to the others.

I’m taking the best of the worst – Republican or not. Obama and Hillary aren’t the best of the worst.

It’s not a matter of “trashing” my principles. It’s a matter of facing reality and understanding one of these goons will be the next President. Which will do the least damage? Not the bottom two.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:36 PM

add Zogby to the list

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1467

Prospective General Election Match-up
3-13/14

McCain44%
Obama39%
Nader 5%
Not sure/Someone else 11%

William Amos on March 17, 2008 at 1:39 PM

Meh…….. Billy Jeff gave us ” The Lewinski“.

Now Obama has given us “The Riding Dirty.”

I shy away from asking, …… what’s next?

Seven Percent Solution on March 17, 2008 at 1:39 PM

Your link on McCain speaks what he might to to conservatism, not the country. So…country first, or conservatism first?

I can’t believe I have to explain this to someone who claims to be a conservative, but…

As conservatism goes, so too does the country. The principles of traditional conservatism are what our country was founded on, and once those principles are lost, or severely marginalized — as would happen under another 4-8 years of neocon rule — there will be no hope for the survival of the United States.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:40 PM

Obama Plays 2nd Fiddle to Clinton in Pennsylvania Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 03/11/08, six weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 36%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Obama and Clinton are effectively tied in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia, but Clinton leads everywhere else. She is up 2:1 in SW PA, which includes Pittsburgh; is up 5:4 in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg; is up 4:1 in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown; is up 5:3 in NE PA, which includes Wilkes-Barre; and is up 4:1 in NW PA, which includes Erie. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites; Obama leads 3:1 among blacks. Clinton leads by 5 among men, by 30 among women. She leads by 12 among those under age 50, leads by 26 among those age 50+. On the Economy, which is most important to Democratic voters in PA, Clinton leads by 24 points. On Health Care, next most important, Clinton leads by 32 points. Among voters focused on Iraq, the two are effectively tied.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c9ce82e9-4cb0-4b64-983c-509ce4fc0ee6

windansea on March 17, 2008 at 1:41 PM

It’s the timing, I think too soon. If closer to the convention Hillary would win, but this will be forgotten because of other dirt being fed to the media.

Wade on March 17, 2008 at 1:43 PM

But many people do vote AGAINST things rather than for them and many Conservatives who hate McCain will vote in his favor in order to vote against socialism.

You mean full-blown socialism. McCain is a socialist himself, just not as socialist as his Democratic counterparts. The problem with this is the socialist agenda will be advanced either way.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:44 PM

As conservatism goes, so too does the country. The principles of traditional conservatism are what our country was founded on, and once those principles are lost, or severely marginalized — as would happen under another 4-8 years of neocon rule — there will be no hope for the survival of the United States.
2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:40 PM

Well, red flag successfully thrown. To paraphrase you, I can’t believe someone who claims to be a conservative would use such a word.

Good day, then.

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:46 PM

You mean full-blown socialism. McCain is a socialist himself, just not as socialist as his Democratic counterparts. The problem with this is the socialist agenda will be advanced either way.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:44 PM

Let’s ride with your statement that McCain is a socialist. You say he’s less of a socialist than the others, right? You claim socialism will march on anyway, right? You understand one of the three will be the next president, right?

So you’re willing to allow the more socialist of the 3 get into office, in order to stop the one that’ll bring about the least march towards a socialist state?

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:49 PM

the neocon lie that somehow Israeli or American lives are more precious than Arab lives or black lives.

Eh. Just depends who’s pointing the gun at me.

davidk on March 17, 2008 at 1:49 PM

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:36 PM

Rudy, The best choice that we had.

http://www.daylife.com/photo/09uj5gQa1t7Bh/John_McCain

3 days ago: CAMP HILL, PA – MARCH 13: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks in support of Republican candidate for President Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, during a news conference at the West Shore Country Club on March 13, 2008 in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania.

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM

So you’re willing to allow the more socialist of the 3 get into office, in order to stop the one that’ll bring about the least march towards a socialist state?

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:49 PM

Seems like a no-brainer doesn’t it?

davidk on March 17, 2008 at 1:51 PM

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM

I supported him, but I was only talking about the last 4 big ones.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:51 PM

That said, even though Rudy is out, I now support McCain 100%

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:52 PM

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:51 PM

really? you were a Rudy person too? :)

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:52 PM

really? you were a Rudy person too? :)

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:52 PM

Yep. As a former New Yorker, I know how much his policies changed lives. Besides the fact I liked what he said, of course.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:46 PM

Haha. Why are mainstream “conservatives” so offended by the word neocon? You do realize that neoconservatism exists, and that its basic views can be defined, right? It’s not just some meaningless pejorative that traditionalists like myself throw around for the heck of it.

What would work better for you? Big government, pro democracy building Republicans? Right-liberals?

Or you can run away.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM

Another one from Rudy at that PA event.

http://www.daylife.com/photo/09eGcnSe4Weke/John_McCain

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:56 PM

Yep. As a former New Yorker, I know how much his policies changed lives. Besides the fact I liked what he said, of course.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Oh, I have never been to NY in my life I just like his policies! >:D

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM

Hey, the poll doesn’t have the opinion “I have no freaking idea,” as an option.

terryannonline on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM

Why are mainstream “conservatives” so offended by the word neocon?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM

It’s not so much “offensive” as tell-tale word. 98% of the time it’s used in the context of a derogatory/attack term by Liberals.

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM

doubt that Jeremiah Whites comments will effect the primary significantly. Obamas delusional supporters have been permanently blinded by the light.

southsideironworks on March 17, 2008 at 1:08 PM

Paging Dr. Freud.

carbon_footprint on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM

Can you just imagine what Obama’s side show cabinet would look like, given the freak show he’s associated with?

It would make Bill Clinton’s cabinet look like rational, balanced, competent adults.

NoDonkey on March 17, 2008 at 1:59 PM

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM

What he said.

What would work better for you? Big government, pro democracy building Republicans? Right-liberals?
Or you can run away.
2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM

Ahem.

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 2:00 PM

Haha. Why are mainstream “conservatives” so offended by the word neocon? You do realize that neoconservatism exists, and that its basic views can be defined, right? It’s not just some meaningless pejorative that traditionalists like myself throw around for the heck of it.

What would work better for you? Big government, pro democracy building Republicans? Right-liberals?

Or you can run away.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 1:55 PM

The word has been demonized.. the word “neo” is odd to people and some do NOT even know what it is, some associate it to neo-nazi’s etc..

Look up the definition of “neo-” it just stands for “new or different” thats all.

Not sure why Republicans or Conservatives get the odd/strange term “neo” tag and Democrats and liberals just get the word “New”.. whatever..

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 2:01 PM

Speaking truth to power isn’t going to get a black man elected president of the united states.

bnelson44 on March 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM

There is another significant downside to those AA percentages AP quoted. If 29% of black voters are influenced positively by Wright’s message, 19% negatively, and 50% are neutral to it, how in the world are we ready for a black president? We’ve also seen commentary that Wright’s message is a bit more common in AA churches than anyone thought. If electing someone based on skin color is so important, how does a black man get elected if he doesn’t campaign for those black voters who favor black nationalism?

a capella on March 17, 2008 at 2:01 PM

It’s not so much “offensive” as tell-tale word. 98% of the time it’s used in the context of a derogatory/attack term by Liberals.

I understand this. But I am using it describe a specific ideology that actually does exist. Ask the Kristols, they’ll be able to tell you all about it.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:02 PM

Ahem.

Speak up.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM

and liberals just get the word “New”..

or progressive. They are progressively moving the country towards fascism.

peacenprosperity on March 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM

I understand this. But I am using it describe a specific ideology that actually does exist. Ask the Kristols, they’ll be able to tell you all about it.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:02 PM

If you don’t mind me asking, who did you support out of all of the nominees?

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM

If you don’t mind me asking, who did you support out of all of the nominees?

I supported Tancredo before he dropped out. I don’t “support” any of the present nominees.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:06 PM

The vast majority of Americans are sick and tired of the victim excuse so many blacks embrace. Obama’s key to success in the white community was his ability to rise above the victim excuse mentality. Unfortunately, Obama was knee deep in the victim mentality and it finally got smoked out. His wife is living proof.

As long as the black community remains so invested in the idea that their plight is totally the result of the actions of others instead of accepting at least some responsibility for their legacy, the situation will remain. Ebonics, grills, and educational ignorance are not the building blocks for intellectual self-actualization. I have often wondered why so many have such a problem figuring that out.

saiga on March 17, 2008 at 2:08 PM

I supported Tancredo before he dropped out. I don’t “support” any of the present nominees.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:06 PM

Explains a lot, mate. Didn’t Tancredo support “pro democracy building”, though?

amerpundit on March 17, 2008 at 2:08 PM

The key to BO’s supposed greater electability was his ability to hold the entirety of the Democratic coalition while showing significant appeal to the center and crossover Republicans. There was always reason to be skeptical about this theory, even more so after the Republicans nominated a non-doctrinaire conservative with an authentic (and to many infuriating) history of crossing the aisle, and, incidentally, a chance to score at least at Bush levels among Latinos. Even before the recent McCain surge/Obama drop in head-to-head polls, perceptions of McCain’s potential among centrist Democrats was backed by other polling data.

In other words, there was always a decent chance that Obama’s support could be reduced to core Democratic voters – closer to 40% of the electorate than 50%, portending a McGovern-like or at least Dukakis-like electoral trouncing. The Wright affair helps to make that possibility much more likely – as it dramatically, even searingly reinforces and completes a negative definition of Obama for much of the electorate. Whether or not Wright stays in the headlines, it would take either a new sensibility-shaking event, or a long, virtually uninterrupted string of positive events (already difficult, ever more so amidst a contentious race), to shift this definition again.

Given that Obama pretty much is what Wright exposes him to be – a left-wing race hustler – that definition is more likely to be confirmed and further reinforced than successfully revised. Considering that Obama’s minimal qualifications and other questions about him already made it hard to close the deal even among Democrats, Beckel’s probably right.

CK MacLeod on March 17, 2008 at 2:10 PM

or progressive. They are progressively moving the country towards fascism.

peacenprosperity on March 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM

I’m one of these..

neolibertarian

But, prefer the word, “Republitarian” created by Larry Elder.

Chakra Hammer on March 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM

Not sure why Republicans or Conservatives get the odd/strange term “neo” tag and Democrats and liberals just get the word “New”.. whatever..

I believe the coinage is due to the first neocons being former left-liberals. Thus, they were newly conservative. This obviously suggests a fairly strictly limited application of the term, to e.g. Podhoretz and Kristol, not that 99 percent of people using it would care.

Back on point, the key would be to look at the internals and see how the Wright thing is affecting Obama’s core segments (not just any Democrats) — any less likely to vote or canvass for him?

DrSteve on March 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM

saiga on March 17, 2008 at 2:08 PM

Blacks will never give up the victim mentality handed to them during the civil rights era. Never. They’ve gained so much by holding on to it (welfare, affirmative action, etc.) that they will continue to use it to make the white majority feel guilty and racist, which will in turn lead to even more minority-centered programs and handouts.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM

Obama is gonna do a slick willy. He is going to wrap himself up into his socialist programs and argue “If you lose me you lose healthcare, you lose peace, you lose affordible housing…ect ect ect…”

He will play defense by using them as a sheild.

The counter argument is to say “America will survive losing Obama. America is greater than Obama’s campaign. We will address our problems and dont have to have Obama’s bagage attached to it. Obama claimed his judgement is what he is running on. As we can see his judgement is faulty.”

If he is allowed to play defense using social programs as his sheild then he can still win.

William Amos on March 17, 2008 at 1:02 PM

No he’s not.

He can’t.

First place he’s indistinguishable from Hillary on just about any issue. Second place, he’s supposed to be post-racial post-partisan etc., etc. The more he talks issues the more he’s just another boilerplate lib’ral.

No, Beckel’s got the dynamic exactly right: Obama can’t recover from this because it’s so toxic to the heart of the entire rational for his campaign.

So all those who wanted Hillary, congratulations. You got her.

Typhoon on March 17, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Unless there is photo or video evidence of Obama witnessing one of these crazed sermons, I think he is going to get past it.

Also, if Hillary gets the nomination, the party will implode. The superdelegates won’t let that happen unless the numbers show Obama has absolutely no chance in the general.

WisCon on March 17, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Insane.

Obama has shown that he will sink his own ship. No Republican should fear Obama any longer. Hillary is the threat.

STOP VOTING FOR HILLARY!

If she wins the Presidency, she will abuse executive power to attack you, and you will have helped her do it. If you want to protest McCain, vote for anyone other than him on the Republican primary ballot. My recommendation would be to vote for Huckabee, but some of you are too blind to see the truth that Huckabee really is the next Reagan (who better to recognize the next Reagan than Ronald Reagan’s own campaign manager?). You want to suffer through 4 years of Carter again? Let the punishment fit the crime.

Red Pill on March 17, 2008 at 2:17 PM

dKos hoping for brokered?

Connie on March 17, 2008 at 2:19 PM

There’s still a long way to the Denver civic rock party up to the aether. Dem activists, won’t you please all go to Denver, no one else can take your place — be making your arrangements NOW to be there for the Dem convention’s duration!
  
Obama:
Forgot my six-coat teflon – hit the sky,
Half way to Denver – ‘fore I realized.
Well I snubbed the newsies – their crowd was cold,
And now she’s got the mo – from Texas and Ohio.
  
Now it’s a dirty long ride down the donkey trail,
And the screens burn bright as the newsies wail,
Let ‘em quote Wright’s wrongs, I’ll just glow like the Grail,
All the way to Denver.
  
HRC:
Well I got to Denver y’know – it took me years
And there was Bill – I smacked his red ears
Some bimbo said “Climber witches – you’re all the same.
Gal, he’s your broomstick” – but I felt unashamed.
  
Yeah its a dirty long ride down the donkey trail
As your name burns hot you get cash on the nail
‘N you gotta ride dirty, gal, and never be stale
All the way to Denver.

ForNow on March 17, 2008 at 2:20 PM

Explains a lot, mate. Didn’t Tancredo support “pro democracy building”, though?

He wasn’t perfect, and I’ll be the first to admit that. But he was the only one that I felt could fix our immigration problem. Immigration is by far my number one concern these days for me, from a government policy standpoint.

The reason why I’m against the democracy building going on in the Middle East right now is not because I’m some isolationist like Ron Paul and the paleocons who like to blame the U.S. for all our problems abroad, or because I’m a brain-dead liberal pacifist hippie, but because I realized some time ago that democracy and “freedom” don’t mix with Islam — which is our true enemy in this fight.

I’m afraid that all the time, money and lives we’re spending in order to try to achieve the impossible in Iraq and Afghanistan is distracting us from the real danger already upon our shores — which is the spread of Islam and sharia. All the while we’re fighting al Qaeda in Iraq we continue to allow hoards of Muslims into our (the West) homelands. How is this in any way a smart strategy?

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:26 PM

However, in Tancredo’s defense, he was, last I heard, advocating an Iraq strategy that would have removed our troops from the center of the country to the borders in order to prevent Iran and Syria from invading, which would have been followed shortly by a withdrawal. Much better than McCain’s strategy of spending the next 100 years in Iraq.

Personally, I think our troops would be of much better use defending our own borders from foreign invasion. But, hey, that’s just me.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:32 PM

Unless there is photo or video evidence of Obama witnessing one of these crazed sermons, I think he is going to get past it.

I don’t think so Wiscon, wait till somebody starts making connections between pastor wrights craziness and things Obama has written in his own book. I saw an article some weeks ago about his book which quoted many controversial things that tend to jive with what his pastor has said. So I think it’s going to be very hard for him to distance himself from that black radical hatred his pastor spews. If the RNC has any brains at all, they should already be researching this, but with a numbnuts candidate like McCain, probably the worst republican candidate in the last century, he probably will not let them.

Bikerken on March 17, 2008 at 2:33 PM

They’ve gained so much by holding on to it (welfare, affirmative action, etc.) that they will continue to use it to make the white majority feel guilty and racist, which will in turn lead to even more minority-centered programs and handouts.

2Brave2Bscared on March 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM

The problem for Obama is that, while many African-Americans may support more affirmative action and racial preference programs, the majority of Americans do not.

Obama is now going to start getting questions about his support for more affirmative action/racial preference programs. He’s already on the record with this position (he even ran a radio commercial in Michigan last year urging voters there to oppose an anti-affirmative action ballot initiative), so he can’t deny it. Once the 527 groups start running their commercials showing Obama’s pastor/spiritual mentor/”moral compass” Wright screaming that God should damn America (which will be shown in some sort of split-screen with that photo of Obama with his hands at his sides while God Bless America plays (and all the politicians standing next to him have their hands over their hearts), it’s going to be devastating to Obama. The white, hispanic, asian, etc. voters who initially shrugged off Wright’s screeds are going to start connecting the dots, and they’re not going to like the picture they end up with.

AZCoyote on March 17, 2008 at 2:35 PM

Math 101:

Delegates Obama Clinton
Total - 1628 1493
Super Delegates - 213 248
Pledged Delegates 1415 1245

MB4 on March 17, 2008 at 2:42 PM

I may pass out.

ThePrez on March 17, 2008 at 2:53 PM

Hillary can’t push this the way she otherwise might

If Obama gets the nomination, McCain won’t be able to either.

This is the best Democratic primary ever.

Slublog on March 17, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Ain’t it though, Slu? It’s lose/lose for the Dems.

BacaDog on March 17, 2008 at 3:10 PM

Bikerken on March 17, 2008 at 2:33 PM

That is a good point but,

a) As soon as Obama stops talking about this, the press will as well.

b) Some new controversy is bound to hit Clinton (tax records possibly?) that will make people forget about this.

Remember, to us this is a major story, but to many on the left it’s not a big deal because they sympathize with those very same statements anyways. They see what Obama is doing now as “damage control” to get himself the nomination.

Unless someone comes up with a “smoking gun” to prove he’s a liar, I just don’t think this will last.

WisCon on March 17, 2008 at 3:14 PM

Unless there is photo or video evidence of Obama witnessing one of these crazed sermons, I think he is going to get past it.

I think all but the most hard-core libs will see through the constant “I was in Phoenix” alibies. You can’t seriously be an active member of a Church for twenty years and not hear a single sermon?

You can’t get away with something like this, even someone as “teflon-ie” as Obama, by saying “Oh, that wacky ol’ Uncle!”

crazy_legs on March 17, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Now we need to stop crossing over for Hillary and start crossing over for Obama.

Keep these two at each other’s throats.

logis on March 17, 2008 at 3:45 PM

but some of you are too blind to see the truth that Huckabee really is the next Reagan

If by “some of us” you mean about 13 million of the 17 million people voting in Republican primaries as of 5 March, then yes, you’re correct.

Your boy lost, and he’s no Ronald Reagan. That model is back-ordered with a 20-year waiting list. Deal, please.

DrSteve on March 17, 2008 at 4:06 PM

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