Iraq poll: Improvements across the board; Update: Did poll underrepresent positive changes?
posted at 7:50 am on March 17, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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A consortium of global media companies, including the BBC and ABC News, commissioned an opinion poll of Iraqis to determine their state of mind. They found that Iraqis have grown significantly more optimistic across the board, with major gains in confidence regarding security and a drop in support for militias. The poll comes at the fifth anniversary of the invasion and about a year after the change in American tactics now called the “surge” began:
Fifty-five percent of Iraqis say things in their own lives are going well, well up from 39 percent as recently as August. More, 62 percent, rate local security positively, up 19 points. And the number who expect conditions nationally to improve in the year ahead has doubled, to 46 percent in this new national poll by ABC News, the BBC, ARD German TV and the Japanese broadcaster NHK.
Without directly crediting the surge in U.S. forces, fewer report security as the main problem in their own lives – 25 percent, nearly half its peak last spring. Forty-six percent say local security has improved in the past six months, nearly double last summer’s level.
The number of Iraqis who feel entirely unsafe in their own area has dropped by two-thirds, to 10 percent. And with Sunni Arab buy-in, U.S.-funded Awakening Councils, created to provide local security, are more popular than the Iraqi government itself.
Even more striking is the halt in worsening views. In August, Iraqis by 61-11 percent said security in the country had gotten worse, not better, in the previous six months. Today, by 36-26 percent, more say security has improved. The new positive margin is not large. But the 35-point drop in views that security is worsening is the single largest change in this poll.
Problems still remain. The Shi’ites and the Kurds have the most optimism, as the BBC points out in its reporting on the survey. By 62% and 73%, respectively, they are happy with their lives. In contrast, only 33% of Sunnis say that. They have still not been engaged enough by the Baghdad government, although improvements have been made. While that remains the case, the potential for violence and dissension will be significant.
However, as ABC notes, Baghdad and Anbar have driven most of the improvement in polling since August. That shows some significant movement among the Sunnis, even if the numbers remain troubling low. For instance, 71% of the Anbar respondents rated security as good, an amazing number considering the common wisdom in 2006 of Anbar as “lost”. In Baghdad, where violence remains a problem, the number has risen to 43% — still an improvement, but a reflection of more work needing to be done in the capital.
Economics have also improved rapidly. In Baghdad and Anbar especially, Iraqis feel much more confident. A twenty-point jump since last August has a majority rating their household finances positively. Interestingly, the greatest jump came from one of the poorest sectors in Iraq, Sadr City in Baghdad. As personal economics continue to improve, one can expect less support for destabilizing violence. Vast majorities still complain — legitimately — about the delivery of utility services, but with violence declining, the US and Iraq can now focus on these larger-scale projects.
Even the hostility to the US has begun to fade. A large plurality, 49%, now believe the US was right to invade, up 15 points since last August and the highest such result since 2004. The number who believe attacks on American troops are acceptable dropped 15 points, but remains at 42%. While a large majority dislike having foreign troops in their country, only 38% want an immediate withdrawal of American forces — maybe less than what one might find in the US. As many as 80% want the US to remain engaged in Iraq for other purposes, such as fighting terrorists, especially al-Qaeda, military training, and keeping Iran and Turkey at bay.
When General David Petraeus reports to Congress this month, he can show this to its members and remind them of his previous testimony of improvement. Will Hillary Clinton apologize now for calling him a liar?
Update (AP): Dave Price e-mails with a nice catch, from page 10 of the PDF:
Sunnis Arabs account for 30 percent of all Iraqis in this survey, Shiites 51 percent and Kurds (who are Sunnis, but not Sunni Arabs) nearly all the rest.
Sound familiar? It should — it’s the same problem ABC ran into the last time they surveyed Iraqis, in March 2007. According to best estimates, Sunnis comprise 32-37% of the population. But that’s not a uniform group: It includes Sunni Arabs, the backbone of the insurgency, and Kurds, America’s most reliable ally. What are the demographics when ethnicity is added to the religious matrix? Per Global Security, it’s Shiites 60-65%, Kurds 18-20%, and Sunni Arabs 12-15%. In other words, ABC overrepresented Sunni Arabs by 15-18%. Since they tend to be the most disgruntled about the overthrow of Saddam, their loss of power in Baghdad, and (understandably) the privations visited upon them by insurgents, their poll data tends to be more dour than the Shiites’ or the Kurds’, so that overrepresentation is dragging down the positivity of the data by several percentage points at least. Thanks to Price for noticing that.
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As with other polls, small differences in wording are everything. Since most of us don’t speak any of the Iraqi dialects, we can’t judge the wording.
Nor do we know whom the respondents might have been in fear of when they answered.
Leaving those considerable caveats aside, it’s good news and more good news.
njcommuter on March 17, 2008 at 8:01 AM
Lets see if the other MSM outlets pick up this story and what kind of coverage it gets.
JeffinSac on March 17, 2008 at 8:02 AM
Yeah right.
Good news, and we could sure use it. I hope this continues though, politics aside. Would be nice to be able to start pulling out and letting them take over.
Dash on March 17, 2008 at 8:04 AM
Don’t you fret none Cap’n Ed, the MSM will be quick to do the obligatory But-We-Still-Need-To-Get-Out-of-Iraq-NOW story.
jimbo2008 on March 17, 2008 at 8:05 AM
I’m not sure but didn’t House Speaker Nancy say
the other day that Irag was lost again,so I can’t
wait for her and Hillary to do the political Kabuki
dance of either the Military,or the report or both
are lying,even if the success of Irag is starring
them both in their Liberal faces!
And the term Irag Invasion is nice,or the War on Irag
thats nice as well,but I perfer The Liberation of Irag!
That way the media types can get away from Warring as in
ongoing to Liberation as in Liberated and Freedom is all
most at hand,soon as the Iragys are ready!
canopfor on March 17, 2008 at 8:08 AM
Ohh… that quagmire!
ZK on March 17, 2008 at 8:14 AM
I’d probably be amused to see this number compared to the number of Democrats who believe it was right to invade Iraq.
Would probably be instructive.
Lehosh on March 17, 2008 at 8:28 AM
They obviously lack MSM reporting to inform them how bad things really are. I mean, how many toys from China have been recalled, Recession, Spy programs and waterboarding. And let us not forget, Governors buying whores.
Poor poor uninformed Iraqi’s. Sometimes I wish I lived there!
conservnut on March 17, 2008 at 8:49 AM
One Soldier has done more for the spread of Freedom around
the world than all the liberal activists combined.
God bless our men and women in uniform and God’s speed to
General Petraeus!!
Baxter Greene on March 17, 2008 at 9:02 AM
I firmly believe the good news but, before we go waving the poll in people’s faces, how many cluster points did they use? :-)
Kafir on March 17, 2008 at 9:13 AM
As the late William F. Buckley pointed out, the winner of the Nobel Peace Price each year should be the men and women of the US military.
No chance, of course.
Which shows how meaningless the award has become.
SteveMG on March 17, 2008 at 9:15 AM
“Let me be perfectly clear, I never questioned the credibilitly of that man, Mr. Petraeus”
Follow-up Question …..
When will Obambi, resident expert on the dismal failure in Iraq and proponent of immediately extracting our troops from Iraq, ever take the time to ACTUALLY VISIT THE COMMANDERS ON THE GROUND in Iraq ???
Maybe he could squeeze it into his schedule as a side trip after his listening tour with his pals Osama, Assad and Ahmadinejad.
fogw on March 17, 2008 at 9:17 AM
What do the fine men and women that work with the good General Petraeus, think?
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 9:21 AM
“Fifty-five percent of Iraqis say things in their own lives are going well …”
This oughta be considered a major victory, even to the libs, because in 1992, Bill Klinton was elected with only 42% of the vote, therefore if 55% say life is good, then it’s a setteled issue, we win, the Iraqis win, the only losers are, as usual, the lefty moonbat libs and the terrorists, yet another thing in the long list of things that they have in common.
Sheesh, can you say “run-on sentence”? Sure you can.
Tony737 on March 17, 2008 at 9:37 AM
Here’s a page I missed…
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 9:53 AM
Here’s a bit more spittle…Math_Mage
Question is…How’s the good Senator going to spin this when he gets back?
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 9:58 AM
Impossible. Obviously the Iraqis didn’t catch Nancy Pelosi on This Week on sunday.
moxie_neanderthal on March 17, 2008 at 10:52 AM
Thank You General Petraeus, U.S. Armed Forces, Shame On All
Who Doubted. I Have Allways Been Proud Of America And Will
Continue To Scorn Those Who Are Not.
aceinstall on March 17, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Is Iran winning the war in Iraq?
The U.S. military is “severely strained” by two large-scale occupations in the Middle East, other troop deployments, and problems recruiting, according to a new survey of military officers published by Foreign Policy magazine and the centrist think-tank Center for a New American Security.
“They see a force stretched dangerously thin and a country ill-prepared for the next fight,” said the report, ‘The U.S. Military Index,’ which polled 3,400 current and former high-level military officers.
Sixty percent of the officers surveyed said that the military is weaker now than it was five years ago, often citing the number of troops deployed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Asked what country had gained the “greatest strategic advantage” from the war in Iraq, 37 percent said Iran while 22 percent answered China. Just one in five of the officers answered that the U.S. had gained the most.
MB4 on March 17, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Thanks Billly Jeff.
Just wondering, what can we expect from Monica’s ex-boyfriend’s wife when it comes to bulking up the military?
fogw on March 17, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Those are probably just some phony soldiers cherry picked by some leftist cut and runners.
The war is going extremely well. You’d never know it from the defeatist surrender talk of the cut and run surrender monkey democrats and their fifth-columnist uber left-wing media allies, but the fact is that the Iraq War has been and is a roaring success by every meaningful standard. I often listen to a radio program to which active-duty service personnel frequently call in, and I can tell you that the optimism, confidence and morale that I hear in their voices truly is sky high.
The only one recurring sour note comes from the realization that if not for the aid and comfort provided to the Al-Qaeda terrorists in Iraq by the America-hating liberals and democrats in this country, our boys job would likely at this point be all but finished, ready to hand things off to the Iraqi army, the Iraqi police and the Iraqi government, and all set to board those ships and planes for their eagerly awaited trip home.
When I think of the needless deaths and suffering our boys have had to endure as a direct result of the machinations of the democrats who want to surrender just as soon as they can, it is very, very difficult for me to contain the intense anger and outrage I feel. In fact, I’m all set to volunteer as an interrogator at Guantanamo - just so long as I’m permitted to take a couple of plane loads of democrats down there with me.
I think we should just trust our President and our upcoming new President war hero Senator John McCain in absolutely every decision they make and we should just support that.
Aleph on March 17, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Do you have an open mind, Aleph?
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 1:04 PM
Do you mind sharing, Aleph? Just what radio program might that be?
Why; perhaps you’re listening to them calling right now?
Yes indeed; they, certainly do call all the time…!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 1:14 PM
You do occasionally find a carrion crow among the eagles.
There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.
Holmes on March 17, 2008 at 1:22 PM
I’ve come to notice a certain proclivity for the ad hominine attack on this board…?
I much prefer courteous discourse to writings’ on rest room walls…!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM
That’s what you resort to when you’re losing the debate — name-calling and ad hominem attacks.
- Michelle Malkin
Holmes on March 17, 2008 at 1:30 PM
So why then, my dear Holmes; didn’t Aleph share his resource with the rest of us wilderness birds…?
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 1:34 PM
Always look at the hands first, dear J_Gocht. Then cuffs, trouser-knees, and boots.
The more bizarre a thing is the less mysterious it proves to be.
Holmes on March 17, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Holmes, that’s absolutely amazing…
One of my olde CO’s told me the same thing before I went before the board.
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 1:51 PM
My dear J_Gocht, as concerns the one named Aleph, we must look for overstatement. Where there is too much of it we must suspect deception.
Holmes on March 17, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Holmes,
I may be more than a bit geezerly, but; I’ve figured it out!
A writer and author…!
Damn, ‘nuff said!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 2:03 PM
I don’t consider a mild statement of fact an ad hominem attack, but you seem to be the expert around here - I can tell by your spelling.
An ad hominem attack on der Slickmeister would go more like this …… “That lying f*ck of a president should have spent less time unzipping his fly for double-wide interns and more time shoring up our military for an uncertain world.”
See the diff, troll?
And don’t expect me to go back and forth with you and your baiting. You’ve just been squashed like a bug …. man up and go away.
fogw on March 17, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Gosh, fogw…
No thanks to me, “foggy”. I had my spell checker, turned on!
I will however; take the credit…!
Thanks again.
“Bug squashed” fogw.
No mas!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 3:04 PM
Found on page 13 of the pdf
Now I wonder why they chose to have oversamples from those areas? Still wasn’t enough to skew the poll decisevly in their favor.
Just A Grunt on March 17, 2008 at 3:36 PM
Yep things are just great in Iraq, keep
believing tjhe propaganda
daileyck1 on March 17, 2008 at 4:15 PM
fogw…
Do you Sir; understand that President GW Bush fought the first four years of the War in Afghanistan and at least the first or more years of his “Great Mis-Adventure into Mesopotamia” with the forces that President Clinton left in place before President Bush’s election?
Military forces and resources take years, perhaps even decades to place into finely honed operational mode.
President Bush didn’t turn on a miraculous switch of improvement in the status of our standing military forces when he was elected commander-in-chief.
There was no magical switch!
The only resource at his disposal was President Clinton’s decimated and demoralized military structure?
Right…?
What’s a President to do…?
What’s a Commander-in-Chief to do…?
“Hell’s bells Dick! We cut us some sorry damn ears off with the Northern Alliance, right!”
“Whata’ yah think we cut some cajones off my daddy’s nemesis in Iraq?”
“Get your olde buds… some damn oil wells, Dick”
You say…foggy!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 4:29 PM
You’re doing all the yammering.
But do go on, you’re grasp of reality is only matched by your ability to express yourself coherently.
fogw on March 17, 2008 at 4:47 PM
Thanks…!
J_Gocht on March 17, 2008 at 4:55 PM
Yep, so much better in Iraq that the death (murder) rate is lower than in Philly or Washington D.C. in the past six months—-but who’s countin’ right dck1
Rovin on March 17, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Remember! Don’t feed the trolls!!!
trigon on March 18, 2008 at 11:29 PM